scholarly journals Global Financial Crisis and Africa: Is the Impact Permanent or Transitory? Time Series Evidence from North Africa

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 577-581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Y Aly ◽  
Mark C Strazicich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Global Recession ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

We utilize time series tests with structural breaks to test for an adverse impact on economic growth rates in North Africa associated with the recent US financial crisis and global recession. One or two breaks are identified for each country, except for Morocco where no break is found, while breaks coincide with the 2008 financial crisis in only two of the six countries (Libya and Mauritania). These findings suggest that, in general, shocks from the recent financial crisis have only temporary effects on economic growth in these countries. Impulse response functions with breaks confirm these results. We conclude by suggesting explanations for these findings.

Did the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 Impact Economic Growth in North Africa?

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 437-455
Author(s):  
Hassan Y. Aly ◽  
Mark C. Strazicich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, we utilize time series tests with structural breaks to test for evidence of an impact on economic growth rates in North African countries following the 2007−2009 U.S. and global financial crisis. One or two breaks in economic growth are identified in each country, except for Morocco where no break is found. However, breaks that coincide with the financial crisis are found in only two of the six countries (Libya and Mauritania), while other breaks coincide most often with earlier U.S. and EU recessions. To further examine the impact of shocks, impulse response functions are estimated from Vector Auto-Regression models with structural breaks. We again find no evidence that shocks from the financial crisis had a significant impact on economic growth in North Africa. We conclude that shocks from the 2007−2009 financial crisis had only a temporary and relatively small impact on economic growth rates in North Africa.

Recession and risk of suicide in Denmark during the 2009 global financial crisis: an ecological register-based study

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110132
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Konieczna ◽  
Sarah Grube Jakobsen ◽  
Christina Petrea Larsen ◽  
Erik Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Prevention Programmes ◽  
The Impact

Aim: The aim of this study is to analyse the potential impact from the financial crisis (onset in 2009) on suicide rates in Denmark. The hypothesis is that the global financial crisis raised unemployment which leads to raising the suicide rate in Denmark and that the impact is most prominent in men. Method: This study used an ecological study design, including register data from 2001 until 2016 on unemployment, suicide, gender and calendar time which was analysed using Poisson regression models and interrupted time series analysis. Results: The correlation between unemployment and suicide rates was positive in the period and statistically significant for all, but at a moderate level. A dichotomised version of time (calendar year) showed a significant reduction in the suicide rate for women (incidence rate ratio 0.87, P=0.002). Interrupted time series analysis showed a significant decreasing trend for the overall suicide rate and for men in the pre-recession period, which in both cases stagnated after the onset of recession in 2009. The difference between the genders’ suicide rate changed significantly at the onset of recession, as the rate for men increased and the rate for women decreased. Discussion: The Danish social welfare model might have prevented social disintegration and suicide among unemployed, and suicide prevention programmes might have prevented deaths among unemployed and mentally ill individuals. Conclusions: We found some indications for gender-specific differences from the impact of the financial crises on the suicide rate. We recommend that men should be specifically targeted for appropriate prevention programmes during periods of economic downturn.

scholarly journals Changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhichao Guo ◽  
Yuanhua Feng ◽  
Thomas Gries
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Middle Part ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Before And After

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by China’s accession to WTO and the global financial crisis in a quantitative way. The paper aims to detect structural breaks and compare differences before and after the change points. Design/methodology/approach – The structural breaks detection procedures in this paper can be applied to find out two different types of change points, i.e. in the middle and at the end of one time series. Then time series and regression models are used to compare differences of trade relationship before and after the detected change points. The methods can be employed in any economic series and work well in practice. Findings – The results indicate that structural breaks in 2002 and 2009 are caused by China’s accession to WTO and the financial crisis. Time series and regression models show that the development of China’s exports to Germany in agri-food products has different features in different sub-periods. Before 1999, there is no significant relationship between China’s exports to Germany and Germany’s imports from the world. Between 2002 and 2008 the former depends on the latter very strongly, and China’s exports to Germany developed quickly and stably. It decreased, however suddenly in 2009, caused by the great reduction of Germany’s imports from the world in that year. But China’s market share in Germany still had a small gain. Analysis of two categories in agri-food trade also leads to similar conclusions. Comparing the two events we see rather different patterns even if they both indicate structural breaks in the development of China’s agri-food exports to Germany. Originality/value – This paper partly originally proposes two statistical algorithms for detecting different kinds of structural breaks in the middle part and at the end of a short-time series, respectively.

scholarly journals Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Riau tahun 2000-2018

SOROT ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Miftakul Khoiri ◽  
Syapsan Syapsan ◽  
Sri Endang Kornita
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Ordinary Least Square

Terdapat beberapa permasalahan yang berbeda pada sumber daya di setiap daerah, yaitu investasi, tenaga kerja dan teknologi sebagai faktor pembentuk output perekonomian daerah. Penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan antara investasi dalam bentuk Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA), Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN), belanja modal pemerintah, angkatan kerja dan ekspor dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Tujuan penelitian adalah melihat pengaruh besarnya faktor-faktor tersebut terhadap Pertumbuhan ekonomi di Provinsi Riau 2000-2018. Untuk kepentingan khusus penelitian dengan tujuan melihat pengaruh krisis keuangan global tahun 2008 terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi maka dimasukkan variabel dummy krisis keuangan. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian kuantitatif dengan metode regresi berganda log-log linier dan data time series. Model diestimasi dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PMA, PMDN, angkatan kerja dan ekspor signifikan positif mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diukur dengan nilai Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB). Begitu juga dengan dummy krisis keuangan global meskipun berlangsung singkat ternyata berpengaruh terhadap PDRB di Provinsi Riau. Namun demikian ditemukan bahwa belanja modal pemerintah tidak signifikan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan PDRB.There are some problems in resources of the regions, namely investment, labour force, and technology as the component factors to make the output of the region’s economy. This study aims to analyze the relationship between investment as consist of foreign direct investment (FDI), private investment, government capital expenditure, labour force, export and economic growth to the gross regional domestic product growth of regency in Riau Province 2000-2018. For the specific purpose of describing global financial crises in 2008 influence the economic growth, we put the dummy variable of the financial crisis in the model. This research is quantitative descriptive with the multiple regression model of log-linear and time series method using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The study shows that government capital expenditure is statistically not significant to affect the gross regional domestic product growth. FDI, private investment, labour force and export is statistically significant to affect the gross regional domestic product growth. As well as a dummy of the global financial crisis is statistically significant to affect the gross regional domestic product growth.

scholarly journals PENGARUH PENANAMAN MODAL ASING TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Fajar Bimantoro ◽  
Mona Adriana S
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Impact

<em>The present study aimed to analyze the relationship between the level of foreign direct investment to Indonesia's economic growth in the period 1991-2014.Fokus of the present study was to analyze the short-term relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth Indonesia. In addition, along with the financial crisis 2008 global bit much negative of Indonesia affected by the global economic slowdown due to the crisis. This prompted the present study was to also perform forecasting of the impact of global financial crisis on foreign direct investment and relation to economic growth. To answer these questions, this research chose VAR Vector Auto Regression or as a method to answer the research questions. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index, BI rate, and the Exchange Rate, the variables used in this research. The estimation results of the VAR indicate that direct investment from abroad did not have an impact on economic growth in the long term but has a strong bond in the short term against the growth of economics. This indicates that foreign investment into Indonesia increasingly quality in promoting economic growth. In addition, the results of forecasting using impulse response function indicates there will be the tendency of a decrease in the level of foreign direct investment and economic growth in Indonesia.</em>

scholarly journals GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH : EVIDENCE FROM EAST ASIAN ECONOMIES

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-54
Author(s):  
Arisyi F. Raz ◽  
Tamarind P. K. Indra ◽  
Dea K. Artikasih ◽  
Syalinda Citra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
East Asian Economies ◽  
The Impact

As economies become more integrated in the midst of globalization, financial crisis that occurs in one country can easily transmit to other countries, becoming global financial catastrophe in a short period of time. In such event, strong economic fundamentals are particularly important to defend a country from the contagious effect of the crisis. As evidence, due to the fragile economic fundamentals and lacking government credibility, East Asian economies were easily attacked by the crisis in 1997 once the sentiment deteriorated. Nevertheless, the region had learned its lessons in 1997 thereby proofing its resilience in facing the global financial crisis that struck in 2008 by improving its economic fundamentals as well as policymakers’ credibility. This paper starts with theories on economic growth and financial crisis. Further, it empirically examines to what extent the financial crises in 1997 and 2008 affect East Asian economies by using panel data econometrics. The evidence shows that, even though both crises have contributed adverse impacts on East Asian economies, the magnitude of the 2008 crisis was relatively less severe than that in 1997. Finally, this study also provides further discussions regarding how East Asian economies had successfully minimized the impact of the global crisis in 2008. Keywords: Global Financial Crises; East Asian Economies; Economic Growth;Financial Market; Random and Fixed EffectsJEL Classification: C330, E440, G010

scholarly journals Structural Breaks and Volatility Spillover in South Asian Economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-77
Author(s):  
Hafiz Rauf Iqbal ◽  
Syed Kashif Saeed ◽  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Specific Reference ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
The Impact

Purpose - This study examines the volatility spillovers in the presence of structural breaks with specific reference to South Asian Capital markets. The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 has compelled policymakers to realize that financial instability has the potential to threaten economic stability and growth; therefore, managing the financial crisis is inevitable. To manage the impact of financial crises, understanding the dynamics of volatility spillover across various markets is imperative. This study has investigated the possible emergence of structural breaks in risk patterns after global financial crises in south Asian markets. Methodology - Using the data from July 2002 to June 2016, employing the Exponential GARCH methodology. Findings - This study finds a significant volatility spillover after the financial crisis of 2007-09. Therefore, the existence of a structural break in the risk pattern of south Asian capital markets cannot be fully rejected. Policy Implications - This conclusion is of prime importance to policymakers in devising policy guidelines concerning financial crises.

scholarly journals Pooled Mean Group Approach to Test the Determinants of Financial Integration: Evidence From OECD and G20 Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 366
Author(s):  
Ahliman Abbasov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Financial Liberalization ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the role of financial liberalization, trade integration, economic growth and global financial crisis on financial integration level of selected OECD and G20 countries during the period of 2000-2016. PMG technique has been implemented to estimate the ARDL model. Regression results suggest a statistically significant long run co-integration relationship between financial integration and independent variables. Analysis also concludes that there are both long run and short run positive impact of trade integration level on financial integration level. The study also concludes that the global financial crisis has had a negative influence on global financial integration both in the short run and long run. But according to the regression results the impact of financial liberalization on the actual financial integration level of the countries only appears in the long run. Results also indicate that positive impact of economic growth on financial globalization level appears only in the long run.

scholarly journals The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Co-Integration Relationship between Reit and Stock Markets: A Dynamic Co-Integration Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 86
Author(s):  
S. Aydin Yüksel ◽  
Asli Yüksel ◽  
Ümit Erol ◽  
Hakki Öztürk
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Main Tool ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Integration Approach ◽  
Variable Nature ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on the co-integration relationship between the REIT and stock market indices using a sample of 10 developed countries. The main tool employed for this purpose is the dynamic co-integration approach. The empirical results strongly suggest that the stock and REIT markets were deeply affected by two successive crises. The first crisis was related to the U.S. subprime problems while the second shock emanated from the European insolvency problems. The shocks led to serious structural breaks in the financial data during the 2007-2012 period. As a result of this and the highly variable nature of the co-integration structure during this period, the conventional and static Johansen tests cannot detect the strong co-integration between the REIT and stock markets which were the result of common negative response of both markets to the successive shocks. Dynamic co-integration approach seems to be a more valid tool to capture the dynamics of the co-integration structure after the GFC. The dynamic approach implies that the destruction of diversification benefits between the REIT and stock markets was essentially a shock related outcome which also implies that the diversification potential between these two markets may still be valid in the absence of shocks.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document