Improving simulations of severe winter storms by initial modification of potential vorticity in sensitive regions

2006 ◽  
Vol 132 (621) ◽  
pp. 2625-2652 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. RØsting ◽  
J. E. KristjÁnsson
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Severe Winter ◽  
Winter Storms

scholarly journals Aggregated responses of human mobility to severe winter storms: An empirical study

PLoS ONE ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. e0188734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Wang ◽  
Qi Wang ◽  
John E. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Study ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Severe Winter ◽  
Winter Storms

scholarly journals The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe

2010 ◽  
Vol 101 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 281-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Pfister ◽  
Emmanuel Garnier ◽  
Maria-João Alcoforado ◽  
Dennis Wheeler ◽  
Jürg Luterbacher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Cultural Memory ◽  
Severe Winter ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Early Eighteenth Century

scholarly journals FIELD MEASUREMENTS OF VERY OBLIQUE WAVE RUN-UP AND OVERTOPPING WITH LASER SCANNERS

2020 ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Patrick Oosterlo ◽  
Bas Hofland ◽  
Jentsje W. van der Meer ◽  
Maarten Overduin ◽  
Gosse Jan Steendam
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Severe Winter ◽  
Winter Storm ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Oblique Wave ◽  
Laser Scanners ◽  
Innovative System ◽  
Run Up

Oosterlo et al. (2019) developed a system using two terrestrial laser scanners, which can measure run-up heights, depths and velocities of waves on a dike in field situations. The system has now been placed next to two overtopping tanks on a dike in the Eems-Dollard estuary in the Netherlands to measure during actual severe winter storms. The goal of the present paper is to further validate this innovative system with data obtained during storm Ciara (10 - 12 February 2020), a severe winter storm with very oblique wave attack. Furthermore, the data gathered during storm Ciara will be compared to the current knowledge on wave overtopping, to possibly gain new insights in the influence of very oblique wave attack on wave overtopping.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/TwSwJuxb-Yo

scholarly journals Storm damage at Craig Phadrig hillfort, Inverness

2019 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Peteranna ◽  
Steven Birch
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Radiocarbon Date ◽  
Storm Damage ◽  
Secondary Phases ◽  
Severe Winter ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Terminus Post Quem ◽  
Massive Timber

In January 2015 severe winter storms caused substantial damage to Craig Phadrig fort (Scheduled Monument 2892) after two wind-blown trees exposed a section of the inner rampart. Prior to consolidation and reinstatement, Scheduled Monument Consent was granted for an archaeological evaluation of the damaged area. This revealed three principal phases of construction, the earliest a massive timber-laced wall burnt in the 4th–3rd century bc. The upper elements of this ruined structure were incorporated into two secondary phases of refortification comprising construction of a palisade along its crest followed several centuries later by reprofiling of the rampart upper bank. The chronology of the second and third phases is more equivocal, with a single 5th–6th century ad radiocarbon date providing a terminus post quem for the erection of the palisade, while the other features indicate activity in the 11th–13th centuries.

scholarly journals Environmental Conditions Associated with Observed Snowband Structures within Northeast U.S. Winter Storms

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (11) ◽  
pp. 3675-3690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara A. Ganetis ◽  
Brian A. Colle ◽  
Sandra E. Yuter ◽  
Nicole P. Hoban
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Radar Reflectivity ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Radar Echoes ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Manual Methods ◽  
Reflectivity Data

Abstract Northeast U.S. winter storms commonly exhibit multiple meso-β-scale (L < 200 km) bands of enhanced radar reflectivity and precipitation. We use radar observations, upper-air soundings, and reanalyses from 108 cases of cool season (October–April) storms from 1996 to 2016 that occurred within the coastal corridor from Delaware to Maine to identify and assess various banding structures and environments. Banding can occur in several configurations among storms, and banding characteristics can differ at different times within the same storm. We classified 6-h storm periods as containing long (>200 km) single bands, single bands co-occurring with sets of mesoscale multibands, multibands only, and radar echoes without any bands using a combination of automated and manual methods. Use of radar reflectivity data at 0.5-dB precision and a variable rather than a fixed threshold showed that the occurrence of long single bands without any mesoscale multibands was rare, occurring in only 5 of 113 6-h periods. The most frequently occurring band configuration (55%) was concurrent single bands and multibands, which usually were present in the northwest quadrant of mature cyclones. Sets of multibands without a nearby single band usually occurred in the northeast quadrant of a cyclone poleward of weak midlevel forcing along a warm front. Overall, mesoscale single and multibands more commonly occurred after the cyclone occluded than in the developing stages. Multibands occurred in a wide range of frontogenesis and moist potential vorticity environments.

scholarly journals Severe winter storms in Missouri from 1960-2010

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Katie Crandall
Keyword(s):  
Winter Season ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
Negative Phase ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Severe Winter ◽  
Heavy Snowfall ◽  
Winter Storm ◽  
Automobile Accidents ◽  
Winter Storms

Severe winter storms have cost the state of Missouri significant economic loss from property damage, crop destruction, and loss of livestock. Even worse than the economic loss from these storms are the injuries and deaths to humans that they sometimes cause. A severe winter storm is a storm with six inches or greater snowfall in 48 hours and/or an ice storm with [1/4] inch or greater ice accumulation from the storm. A severe winter storms climatology for Missouri from 1960-2010 was created to better understand the development, frequency, and intensity of severe winter storms in Missouri. From the climatology, it was found that heavy snowfall events were by far the most common severe winter storm type in Missouri with 318 heavy snowfall events. Heavy ice events were the second most common with 66 events. Texas/West Gulf originating mid-latitude cyclones was responsible for the majority of severe winter storms in Missouri followed by Colorado originating mid-latitude cyclones. When looking at El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability with heavy snowfall events, there is only a slight variation between the number of heavy snowfall events and the phase of the ENSO cycle they occur in. When all of the heavy snowfall events were averaged together there was only a slight difference in the average number of events per winter season during the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (6.2) and the number of events per winter season during the positive phase of the PDO (6.5). When all heavy snowfall events were averaged together there is a 1.4 difference in the average number of events per year during the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (4.6) and the positive phase of the NAO (6). Shelter Mutual Insurance Company provided insurance data from 2000-2010 for 56 severe winter storms in Missouri. Claim payouts for these storms totaled $28,543,020.65. Data from the Missouri Department of Transportation (MoDOT) for automobile accidents on Missouri interstates from 2000-2010 showed that there was the most snowfall related automobile accidents when snowfall was between 0-2.9 inches. The number of automobile accidents decreased with increasing snowfall amounts.

scholarly journals Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Severe Winter Storms

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 365-373 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Hansen ◽  
T. Kruschke ◽  
R. J. Greatbatch ◽  
A. Weisheimer
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Severe Winter ◽  
Seasonal Predictability ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Factors Influencing

The Impact of Moist Singular Vectors and Horizontal Resolution on Short-Range Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasts for Two European Winter Storms

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (10) ◽  
pp. 2877-2887 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Walser ◽  
Marco Arpagaus ◽  
Christof Appenzeller ◽  
Martin Leutbecher
Keyword(s):  
Short Range ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Severe Winter ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Singular Vectors ◽  
Wind Gusts ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper studies the impact of different initial condition perturbation methods and horizontal resolutions on short-range limited-area ensemble predictions for two severe winter storms. The methodology consists of 51-member ensembles generated with the global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which are downscaled with the nonhydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell. The resolution dependency is studied by comparing three different limited-area ensembles: (a) 80-km grid spacing, (b) 10-km grid spacing, and (c) 10-km grid spacing with a topography coarse grained to 80-km resolution. The initial condition perturbations of the global ensembles are based on singular vectors (SVs), and the tendencies are not perturbed (i.e., no stochastic physics). Two configurations are considered for the initial condition perturbations: (i) the operational SV configuration: T42 truncation, 48-h optimization time, and dry tangent-linear model, and (ii) the “moist SV” configuration: TL95 truncation, 24-h optimization time, and moist tangent-linear model. Lokal Modell ensembles are analyzed for the European winter storms Lothar and Martin, both occurring in December 1999, with particular attention paid to near-surface wind gusts. It is shown that forecasts using the moist SV configuration predict higher probabilities for strong wind gusts during the storm period compared to forecasts with the operational SV configuration. Similarly, the forecasts with increased horizontal resolution—even with coarse topography—lead to higher probabilities compared with the low-resolution forecasts. Overall, the two case studies suggest that currently developed operational high-resolution limited-area EPSs have a great potential to improve early warnings for severe winter storms, particularly when the driving global EPS employs moist SVs.

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