A best-choice problem with multiple selectors

2000 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 718-735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hagit Glickman

Consider a situation where a known number, n, of objects appear sequentially in a random order. At each stage, the present object is presented to d ≥ 2 different selectors, who must jointly decide whether to select or reject it, irrevocably. Exactly one object must be chosen. The observation at stage j is a d-dimensional vector R(j) = (R1(j),…, Rd(j)), where Ri(j) is the relative rank of the jth object, by the criterion of the ith selector. The decision whether to stop or not at time j is based on the d-dimensional random vectors R(1),…, R(j). The criteria according to which each selector ranks the objects can either be dependent or independent. Although the goal of each selector is to maximize the probability of choosing the best object from his/her point of view, all d selectors must cooperate and chose the same object. The objective studied here is the maximization of the minimum over the d individual probabilities of choosing the best object. We exhibit the structure of the optimal rule. For independent criteria we give a full description of the rule and show that the optimal value tends to d-d/(d-1), as n → ∞. Furthermore, we show that as n → ∞, the liminf of the values under negatively associated criteria is bounded below by d-d/(d-1).

2000 ◽  
Vol 37 (03) ◽  
pp. 718-735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hagit Glickman

Consider a situation where a known number, n, of objects appear sequentially in a random order. At each stage, the present object is presented to d ≥ 2 different selectors, who must jointly decide whether to select or reject it, irrevocably. Exactly one object must be chosen. The observation at stage j is a d-dimensional vector R (j) = (R 1(j),…, R d (j)), where R i (j) is the relative rank of the jth object, by the criterion of the ith selector. The decision whether to stop or not at time j is based on the d-dimensional random vectors R (1),…, R (j). The criteria according to which each selector ranks the objects can either be dependent or independent. Although the goal of each selector is to maximize the probability of choosing the best object from his/her point of view, all d selectors must cooperate and chose the same object. The objective studied here is the maximization of the minimum over the d individual probabilities of choosing the best object. We exhibit the structure of the optimal rule. For independent criteria we give a full description of the rule and show that the optimal value tends to d -d/(d-1), as n → ∞. Furthermore, we show that as n → ∞, the liminf of the values under negatively associated criteria is bounded below by d -d/(d-1).


1988 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 544-552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masami Yasuda

This paper treats stopping problems on Markov chains in which the OLA (one-step look ahead) policy is optimal. Its associated optimal value can be explicitly expressed by a potential for a charge function of the difference between the immediate reward and the one-step-after reward. As an application to the best choice problem, we shall obtain the value of three problems: the classical secretary problem, a problem with a refusal probability and a problem with a random number of objects.


1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (01) ◽  
pp. 111-130
Author(s):  
Joseph D. Petruccelli

From one point of view this paper adds to a previous formulation of the best-choice problem (Petruccelli (1981)) the possibility that the number of available observations, rather than being known, is a bounded random variable N with known distribution. From another perspective, it expands the formulations of Presman and Sonin (1972) and Rasmussen and Robbins (1975) to include recall and uncertainty of selection of observations. The behaviour of optimal stopping rules is examined under various assumptions on the general model. For optimal stopping rules and their probabilities of best choice relations are obtained between the bounded and unbounded N cases. Two particular classes of stopping rules which generalize the s(r) rules of Rasmussen and Robbins (1975) are considered in detail.


1988 ◽  
Vol 25 (03) ◽  
pp. 544-552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masami Yasuda

This paper treats stopping problems on Markov chains in which the OLA (one-step look ahead) policy is optimal. Its associated optimal value can be explicitly expressed by a potential for a charge function of the difference between the immediate reward and the one-step-after reward. As an application to the best choice problem, we shall obtain the value of three problems: the classical secretary problem, a problem with a refusal probability and a problem with a random number of objects.


2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 343-362
Author(s):  
Fabricio Siqueira Benevides ◽  
Małgorzata Sulkowska

AbstractThe vertices of thekth power of a directed path withnvertices are exposed one by one to a selector in some random order. At any time the selector can see the graph induced by the vertices that have already appeared. The selector's aim is to choose online the maximal vertex (i.e. the vertex with no outgoing edges). We give upper and lower bounds for the asymptotic behaviour ofpn,kn1/(k+1), wherepn,kis the probability of success under the optimal algorithm. In order to derive the upper bound, we consider a model in which the selector obtains some extra information about the edges that have already appeared. We give the exact asymptotics of the probability of success under the optimal algorithm in this case. In order to derive the lower bound, we analyse a site percolation process on a sequence of thekth powers of a directed path withnvertices.


1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph D. Petruccelli

From one point of view this paper adds to a previous formulation of the best-choice problem (Petruccelli (1981)) the possibility that the number of available observations, rather than being known, is a bounded random variable N with known distribution. From another perspective, it expands the formulations of Presman and Sonin (1972) and Rasmussen and Robbins (1975) to include recall and uncertainty of selection of observations. The behaviour of optimal stopping rules is examined under various assumptions on the general model. For optimal stopping rules and their probabilities of best choice relations are obtained between the bounded and unbounded N cases. Two particular classes of stopping rules which generalize the s(r) rules of Rasmussen and Robbins (1975) are considered in detail.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marius Hauck ◽  
Frauke Fritsch ◽  
Hella Garny ◽  
Andreas Engel

Abstract. Analysis of stratospheric transport from an observational point of view is frequently realized by evaluation of mean age of air values from long-lived trace gases. However, this provides more insight into general transport strength and less into its mechanism. Deriving complete transit time distributions (age spectra) is desirable, but their deduction from direct measurements is difficult and so far primarily achieved by assumptions about dynamics and spectra themselves. This paper introduces a modified version of an inverse method to infer age spectra from mixing ratios of short-lived trace gases. For a full description of transport seasonality the formulation includes an imposed seasonal cycle to gain multimodal spectra. The EMAC model simulation used for a proof of concept features an idealized dataset of 40 radioactive trace gases with different chemical lifetimes as well as 40 chemically inert pulsed trace gases to calculate pulse age spectra. Annual and seasonal mean inverse spectra are compared to pulse spectra including first and second moments as well as the ratio between them to assess the performance on these time scales. Results indicate that the modified inverse age spectra match the annual and seasonal pulse age spectra well on global scale beyond 1.5 years mean age of air. The imposed seasonal cycle emerges as a reliable tool to include transport seasonality in the age spectra. Below 1.5 years mean age of air, tropospheric influence intensifies and breaks the assumption of single entry through the tropical tropopause, leading to inaccurate spectra in particular in the northern hemisphere. The imposed seasonal cycle wrongly prescribes seasonal entry in this lower region and does not lead to a better agreement between inverse and pulse age spectra without further improvement. As the inverse method aims for future implementation on in situ observational data, possible critical factors for this purpose are delineated finally.


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