An unexpected connection between branching processes and optimal stopping

2000 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 613-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Assaf ◽  
Larry Goldstein ◽  
Ester Samuel-Cahn
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Stopping ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Infinite Horizon ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Rates Of Convergence ◽  
Extinction Probability ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Rule Method ◽  
Watson Process

A curious connection exists between the theory of optimal stopping for independent random variables, and branching processes. In particular, for the branching process Zn with offspring distribution Y, there exists a random variable X such that the probability P(Zn = 0) of extinction of the nth generation in the branching process equals the value obtained by optimally stopping the sequence X1,…, Xn, where these variables are i.i.d. distributed as X. Generalizations to the inhomogeneous and infinite horizon cases are also considered. This correspondence furnishes a simple ‘stopping rule’ method for computing various characteristics of branching processes, including rates of convergence of the nth generation's extinction probability to the eventual extinction probability, for the supercritical, critical and subcritical Galton-Watson process. Examples, bounds, further generalizations and a connection to classical prophet inequalities are presented. Throughout, the aim is to show how this unexpected connection can be used to translate methods from one area of applied probability to another, rather than to provide the most general results.

scholarly journals An unexpected connection between branching processes and optimal stopping

2000 ◽  
Vol 37 (03) ◽  
pp. 613-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Assaf ◽  
Larry Goldstein ◽  
Ester Samuel-Cahn
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Stopping ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Infinite Horizon ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Rates Of Convergence ◽  
Extinction Probability ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Rule Method ◽  
Watson Process

A curious connection exists between the theory of optimal stopping for independent random variables, and branching processes. In particular, for the branching process Z n with offspring distribution Y, there exists a random variable X such that the probability P(Z n = 0) of extinction of the nth generation in the branching process equals the value obtained by optimally stopping the sequence X 1,…, X n , where these variables are i.i.d. distributed as X. Generalizations to the inhomogeneous and infinite horizon cases are also considered. This correspondence furnishes a simple ‘stopping rule’ method for computing various characteristics of branching processes, including rates of convergence of the nth generation's extinction probability to the eventual extinction probability, for the supercritical, critical and subcritical Galton-Watson process. Examples, bounds, further generalizations and a connection to classical prophet inequalities are presented. Throughout, the aim is to show how this unexpected connection can be used to translate methods from one area of applied probability to another, rather than to provide the most general results.

Maximal branching processes and ‘long-range percolation’

1970 ◽  
Vol 7 (01) ◽  
pp. 89-98
Author(s):  
John Lamperti
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Transition Matrices ◽  
A Chain ◽  
Image Position ◽  
The Right

In the first part of this paper, we will consider a class of Markov chains on the non-negative integers which resemble the Galton-Watson branching process, but with one major difference. If there are k individuals in the nth “generation”, and are independent random variables representing their respective numbers of offspring, then the (n + 1)th generation will contain max individuals rather than as in the branching case. Equivalently, the transition matrices Pij of the chains we will study are to be of the form where F(.) is the probability distribution function of a non-negative, integervalued random variable. The right-hand side of (1) is thus the probability that the maximum of i independent random variables distributed by F has the value j. Such a chain will be called a “maximal branching process”.

Maximal branching processes and ‘long-range percolation’

1970 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Lamperti
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Transition Matrices ◽  
A Chain ◽  
Image Position ◽  
The Right

In the first part of this paper, we will consider a class of Markov chains on the non-negative integers which resemble the Galton-Watson branching process, but with one major difference. If there are k individuals in the nth “generation”, and are independent random variables representing their respective numbers of offspring, then the (n + 1)th generation will contain max individuals rather than as in the branching case. Equivalently, the transition matrices Pij of the chains we will study are to be of the form where F(.) is the probability distribution function of a non-negative, integervalued random variable. The right-hand side of (1) is thus the probability that the maximum of i independent random variables distributed by F has the value j. Such a chain will be called a “maximal branching process”.

Continuity for multi-type branching processes with varying environments

1999 ◽  
Vol 36 (01) ◽  
pp. 139-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Owen Dafydd Jones
Keyword(s):  
Linear Combination ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Main Tool ◽  
Concentration Function ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Varying Environments

Conditions are derived for the components of the normed limit of a multi-type branching process with varying environments, to be continuous on (0, ∞). The main tool is an inequality for the concentration function of sums of independent random variables, due originally to Petrov. Using this, we show that if there is a discontinuity present, then a particular linear combination of the population types must converge to a non-random constant (Equation (1)). Ensuring this can not happen provides the desired continuity conditions.

Malthusian behaviour of the critical and subcritical age-dependent branching processes with arbitrary state space

1976 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 455-465
Author(s):  
D. I. Saunders
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Rates Of Convergence ◽  
Expected Number ◽  
Subcritical Case ◽  
Arbitrary State ◽  
Malthusian Parameter ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Number Of Individuals

For the age-dependent branching process with arbitrary state space let M(x, t, A) be the expected number of individuals alive at time t with states in A given an initial individual at x. Subject to various conditions it is shown that M(x, t, A)e–at converges to a non-trivial limit where α is the Malthusian parameter (α = 0 for the critical case, and is negative in the subcritical case). The method of proof also yields rates of convergence.

A note on a functional equation arising in Galton-Watson branching processes

1971 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 589-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krishna B. Athreya
Keyword(s):  
Functional Equation ◽  
Continuous Function ◽  
Generating Function ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Probability Generating Function ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Watson Process ◽  
Natural Way

The functional equation ϕ(mu) = h(ϕ(u)) where is a probability generating function with 1 < m = h'(1 –) < ∞ and where F(t) is a non-decreasing right continuous function with F(0 –) = 0, F(0 +) < 1 and F(+ ∞) = 1 arises in a Galton-Watson process in a natural way. We prove here that for any if and only if This unifies several results in the literature on the supercritical Galton-Watson process. We generalize this to an age dependent branching process case as well.

A note on a functional equation arising in Galton-Watson branching processes

1971 ◽  
Vol 8 (03) ◽  
pp. 589-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krishna B. Athreya
Keyword(s):  
Functional Equation ◽  
Continuous Function ◽  
Generating Function ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Probability Generating Function ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Watson Process ◽  
Natural Way

The functional equation ϕ(mu) = h(ϕ(u)) where is a probability generating function with 1 &lt; m = h'(1 –) &lt; ∞ and where F(t) is a non-decreasing right continuous function with F(0 –) = 0, F(0 +) &lt; 1 and F(+ ∞) = 1 arises in a Galton-Watson process in a natural way. We prove here that for any if and only if This unifies several results in the literature on the supercritical Galton-Watson process. We generalize this to an age dependent branching process case as well.

A connection between the limit and the maximum random variable of a branching process in varying environments

1982 ◽  
Vol 19 (03) ◽  
pp. 681-684 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. C. Klebaner ◽  
H.-J. Schuh
Keyword(s):  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Varying Environments

We show for a certain class of Galton–Watson branching processes in varying environments (Zn ) n that moments of the maximum random variable sup n Zn/Cn exist if and only if the same moments of lim nZn/Cn exist, where Cn is a sequence of suitable constants.

The xlogx condition for general branching processes

1998 ◽  
Vol 35 (03) ◽  
pp. 537-544
Author(s):  
Peter Olofsson
Keyword(s):  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Rate Of Growth

The xlogx condition is a fundamental criterion for the rate of growth of a general branching process, being equivalent to non-degeneracy of the limiting random variable. In this paper we adopt the ideas from Lyons, Pemantle and Peres (1995) to present a new proof of this well-known theorem. The idea is to compare the ordinary branching measure on the space of population trees with another measure, the size-biased measure.

A limit theorem for a class of supercritical branching processes

1972 ◽  
Vol 9 (04) ◽  
pp. 707-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Doney
Keyword(s):  
General Class ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Generating Functional ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Supercritical Case ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Watson Process ◽  
Supercritical Branching Processes ◽  
Convergence In Mean

In the Bellman-Harris (B-H) age-dependent branching process, the birth of a child can occur only at the time of its parent's death. A general class of branching process in which births can occur throughout the lifetime of a parent has been introduced by Crump and Mode. This class shares with the B-H process the property that the generation sizes {ξn } form a Galton-Watson process, and so may be classified into subcritical, critical or supercritical according to the value of m = E{ξ 1}. Crump and Mode showed that, as regards extinction probability, asymptotic behaviour, and for the supercritical case, convergence in mean square of Z(t)/E[Z(t)], as t → ∞, where Z(t) is the population size at time t given one ancestor at t = 0, properties of the B-H process can be extended to this general class. In this paper conditions are found for the convergence in distribution of Z(t)/E{Z(t)} in the supercritical case to a non-degenerate limit distribution. In contrast to the B-H process, these conditions are not the same as those for ξn /mn to have a non-degenerate limit. An integral equation is established for the generating function of Z(t), which is more complicated than the corresponding one for the B-H process and involves the conditional probability generating functional of N(x), x 0, ≧ the number of children born to an individual in the age interval [0, x].

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