scholarly journals Outcome-Wide Longitudinal Designs for Causal Inference: A New Template for Empirical Studies

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 437-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler J. VanderWeele ◽  
Maya B. Mathur ◽  
Ying Chen
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Empirical Studies

Analyzing Participant Behaviors in Design Crowdsourcing Contests Using Causal Inference on Field Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashish M. Chaudhari ◽  
Zhenghui Sha ◽  
Jitesh H. Panchal
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Task Complexity ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Concept Generation ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Future Design ◽  
Game Theoretic

Crowdsourcing is the practice of getting ideas and solving problems using a large number of people on the Internet. It is gaining popularity for activities in the engineering design process ranging from concept generation to design evaluation. The outcomes of crowdsourcing contests depend on the decisions and actions of participants, which in turn depend on the nature of the problem and the contest. For effective use of crowdsourcing within engineering design, it is necessary to understand how the outcomes of crowdsourcing contests are affected by sponsor-related, contest-related, problem-related, and individual-related factors. To address this need, we employ existing game-theoretic models, empirical studies, and field data in a synergistic way using the theory of causal inference. The results suggest that participants' decisions to participate are negatively influenced by higher task complexity and lower reputation of sponsors. However, they are positively influenced by the number of prizes and higher allocation to prizes at higher levels. That is, an amount of money on any following prize generates higher participation than the same amount of money on the first prize. The contributions of the paper are: (a) a causal graph that encodes relationships among factors affecting crowdsourcing contests, derived from game-theoretic models and empirical studies, and (b) a quantification of the causal effects of these factors on the outcomes of GrabCAD, Cambridge, MA contests. The implications of these results on the design of future design crowdsourcing contests are discussed.

scholarly journals CAUSAL INFERENCE ON EDUCATION POLICIES: A SURVEY OF EMPIRICAL STUDIES USING PISA, TIMSS AND PIRLS

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 878-915 ◽  
Author(s):  
José M. Cordero ◽  
Víctor Cristóbal ◽  
Daniel Santín
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Education Policies

scholarly journals Evidence synthesis for constructing directed acyclic graphs (ESC-DAGs): a novel and systematic method for building directed acyclic graphs

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 322-329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl D Ferguson ◽  
Mark McCann ◽  
Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi ◽  
Hilary Thomson ◽  
Michael J Green ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Modular Design ◽  
Evidence Synthesis ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Directed Acyclic Graphs ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Acyclic Graphs ◽  
Primary Data Analysis ◽  
Limited Experience ◽  
Direct Primary

Abstract Background Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are popular tools for identifying appropriate adjustment strategies for epidemiological analysis. However, a lack of direction on how to build them is problematic. As a solution, we propose using a combination of evidence synthesis strategies and causal inference principles to integrate the DAG-building exercise within the review stages of research projects. We demonstrate this idea by introducing a novel protocol: ‘Evidence Synthesis for Constructing Directed Acyclic Graphs’ (ESC-DAGs)’. Methods ESC-DAGs operates on empirical studies identified by a literature search, ideally a novel systematic review or review of systematic reviews. It involves three key stages: (i) the conclusions of each study are ‘mapped’ into a DAG; (ii) the causal structures in these DAGs are systematically assessed using several causal inference principles and are corrected accordingly; (iii) the resulting DAGs are then synthesised into one or more ‘integrated DAGs’. This demonstration article didactically applies ESC-DAGs to the literature on parental influences on offspring alcohol use during adolescence. Conclusions ESC-DAGs is a practical, systematic and transparent approach for developing DAGs from background knowledge. These DAGs can then direct primary data analysis and DAG-based sensitivity analysis. ESC-DAGs has a modular design to allow researchers who are experienced DAG users to both use and improve upon the approach. It is also accessible to researchers with limited experience of DAGs or evidence synthesis.

scholarly journals A note on co-occurrence, transitional probability, and causal inference

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeroen van Paridon ◽  
Phillip M. Alday
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Transitional Probability ◽  
Causal Inferences ◽  
Information Theoretic ◽  
Current State ◽  
Information Theoretic Measures ◽  
Transitional Probabilities

Much has been written about the role of prediction in cognition in general, and language processing in particular, with some authors even claiming that prediction is the central goal of cognition. Attributing such a specific goal to cognition seems speculative, but prediction is generally held to play an important role in both perception and action. In empirical studies of language processing, however, measures of predictability such as forward transitional probability (or surprisal) are often no more effective in describing behavioral and neural phenomena than measures of post- or retrodictability such as backward transitional probability. We address this paradox by looking at the relationship between these different information theoretic measures and proposing a mechanistic account of how they are used in cognition. We posit that backward transitional probabilities support causal inferences about the occurrence of word sequences. Using Bayes' Theorem, we demonstrate that predictions (formalized as forward transitional probabilities) can be used in conjunction with the marginal probabilities of the current state/word and the upcoming state/word to compute these causal inferences. This conceptualization of causal inference in language processing both accounts for the role of prediction, and the surprising effectiveness of backwards transitional probability as a predictor of human behavior and its neural correlates.

Beyond metaphors and semantics: A framework for causal inference in neuroscience

2019 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto A. Gulli
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Causal Power

Abstract The long-enduring coding metaphor is deemed problematic because it imbues correlational evidence with causal power. In neuroscience, most research is correlational or conditionally correlational; this research, in aggregate, informs causal inference. Rather than prescribing semantics used in correlational studies, it would be useful for neuroscientists to focus on a constructive syntax to guide principled causal inference.

An empirical review of gambling expansion and gambling-related harm

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 295-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debi A. LaPlante ◽  
Heather M. Gray ◽  
Pat M. Williams ◽  
Sarah E. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Peer Review ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Expansion Method ◽  
Responsible Gambling ◽  
Review Literature ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Empirical Comparison ◽  
Related Harm

Abstract. Aims: To discuss and review the latest research related to gambling expansion. Method: We completed a literature review and empirical comparison of peer reviewed findings related to gambling expansion and subsequent gambling-related changes among the population. Results: Although gambling expansion is associated with changes in gambling and gambling-related problems, empirical studies suggest that these effects are mixed and the available literature is limited. For example, the peer review literature suggests that most post-expansion gambling outcomes (i. e., 22 of 34 possible expansion outcomes; 64.7 %) indicate no observable change or a decrease in gambling outcomes, and a minority (i. e., 12 of 34 possible expansion outcomes; 35.3 %) indicate an increase in gambling outcomes. Conclusions: Empirical data related to gambling expansion suggests that its effects are more complex than frequently considered; however, evidence-based intervention might help prepare jurisdictions to deal with potential consequences. Jurisdictions can develop and evaluate responsible gambling programs to try to mitigate the impacts of expanded gambling.

Investigating the Multimodal Nature of Human Communication

2009 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silke Paulmann ◽  
Sarah Jessen ◽  
Sonja A. Kotz
Keyword(s):  
Visual Information ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Physical Property ◽  
Event Related Potentials ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Human Communication ◽  
Channel Condition ◽  
Prosodic Cues ◽  
Early Processing ◽  
Related Potentials

The multimodal nature of human communication has been well established. Yet few empirical studies have systematically examined the widely held belief that this form of perception is facilitated in comparison to unimodal or bimodal perception. In the current experiment we first explored the processing of unimodally presented facial expressions. Furthermore, auditory (prosodic and/or lexical-semantic) information was presented together with the visual information to investigate the processing of bimodal (facial and prosodic cues) and multimodal (facial, lexic, and prosodic cues) human communication. Participants engaged in an identity identification task, while event-related potentials (ERPs) were being recorded to examine early processing mechanisms as reflected in the P200 and N300 component. While the former component has repeatedly been linked to physical property stimulus processing, the latter has been linked to more evaluative “meaning-related” processing. A direct relationship between P200 and N300 amplitude and the number of information channels present was found. The multimodal-channel condition elicited the smallest amplitude in the P200 and N300 components, followed by an increased amplitude in each component for the bimodal-channel condition. The largest amplitude was observed for the unimodal condition. These data suggest that multimodal information induces clear facilitation in comparison to unimodal or bimodal information. The advantage of multimodal perception as reflected in the P200 and N300 components may thus reflect one of the mechanisms allowing for fast and accurate information processing in human communication.

Handwriting Analysis and Personality Assessment

2000 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Greasley
Keyword(s):  
Personality Traits ◽  
Personality Assessment ◽  
Personnel Selection ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Handwriting Analysis ◽  
Recruitment Process ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Personnel Recruitment ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Better Than

It has been estimated that graphology is used by over 80% of European companies as part of their personnel recruitment process. And yet, after over three decades of research into the validity of graphology as a means of assessing personality, we are left with a legacy of equivocal results. For every experiment that has provided evidence to show that graphologists are able to identify personality traits from features of handwriting, there are just as many to show that, under rigorously controlled conditions, graphologists perform no better than chance expectations. In light of this confusion, this paper takes a different approach to the subject by focusing on the rationale and modus operandi of graphology. When we take a closer look at the academic literature, we note that there is no discussion of the actual rules by which graphologists make their assessments of personality from handwriting samples. Examination of these rules reveals a practice founded upon analogy, symbolism, and metaphor in the absence of empirical studies that have established the associations between particular features of handwriting and personality traits proposed by graphologists. These rules guide both popular graphology and that practiced by professional graphologists in personnel selection.

Parenting and Adolescents’ Sexual Development in Western Societies

2011 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanneke de Graaf ◽  
Ine Vanwesenbeeck ◽  
Liesbeth Woertman ◽  
Wim Meeus
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Behavior ◽  
Parenting Styles ◽  
Sexual Development ◽  
Parental Support ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Sexual Practices ◽  
Psychosexual Development ◽  
First Sexual Intercourse ◽  
Parenting Influences ◽  
Reciprocal Associations

This review examines associations between parenting styles and the psychosexual development of adolescents. Methods and results of empirical studies of associations between parental support, control, and knowledge and the sexual behavior and sexual health of adolescents are described and evaluated. The results show that, in general, higher scores on support, control, and knowledge relate to a delay of first sexual intercourse, safer sexual practices, and higher sexual competence. Despite the vast amount of literature on this subject, the majority of these studies focus on single dimensions of parenting and unidirectional parenting influences. This review generates hypotheses regarding interactions of different parenting styles and reciprocal associations between parents and their children. There is a need for more dynamic, dialectical studies of parenting, and children’s sexual development.

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