Regionally Diverse Land-Use Driven Feedbacks from Soils to the Climate System

2018 ◽  
pp. 61-130
Author(s):  
Hermann F. Jungkunst ◽  
Thomas Horvath ◽  
Stefan Erasmi ◽  
Jan Paul Krüger ◽  
Katharina H.M. Meurer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Climate System

Agriculture land use changes and the dynamics of climate system: A sustainable approach

2007 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 1061-1064 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahesh Singh ◽  
Maria Fekete-Farkas ◽  
István Szücs
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Agriculture Land ◽  
System A

scholarly journals Harmonization of Global Land-Use Change and Management for the Period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
George C. Hurtt ◽  
Louise Chini ◽  
Ritvik Sahajpal ◽  
Steve Frolking ◽  
Benjamin L. Bodirsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Combined Effects ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community is developing the next generation of advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, are required as input for these models. Here we present results from the Land-use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, with the goal to smoothly connect updated historical reconstructions of land-use with new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land-use patterns, underlying land-use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds off a similar effort from CMIP5, and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25 × 0.25 degree), over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300), with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices), using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data), updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation), and is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5, and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land-use on the global carbon-climate system.

scholarly journals MIROC-INTEG-LAND version 1: a global biogeochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 4713-4747
Author(s):  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
Tsuguki Kinoshita ◽  
Gen Sakurai ◽  
Yadu Pokhrel ◽  
Akihiko Ito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Earth System

Abstract. Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. On the one hand, future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human-induced land-use change can affect the climate system through biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND (MIROC INTEGrated LAND surface model version 1), an integrated model that combines the land surface component of global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land-use models. The most significant feature of MIROC-INTEG-LAND is that the land surface model that describes the processes of the energy and water balance, human water management, and crop growth incorporates a land use decision-making model based on economic activities. In MIROC-INTEG-LAND, spatially detailed information regarding water resources and crop yields is reflected in the prediction of future land-use change, which cannot be considered in the conventional integrated assessment models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the submodels of MIROC-INTEG-LAND, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify various interactions between the submodels. By evaluating the historical simulation, we have confirmed that the model reproduces the observed states well. The future simulations indicate that changes in climate have significant impacts on crop yields, land use, and irrigation water demand. The newly developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND could be combined with atmospheric and ocean models to develop an integrated earth system model to simulate the interactions among coupled natural–human earth system components.

scholarly journals Spatial Zoning Strategy of Urbanization Based on Urban Climate Co-Movement: A Case Study in Shanghai Mainland Area

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunfang Jiang ◽  
Luyao Hou ◽  
Tiemao Shi ◽  
Yuemin Ning
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Variation Method ◽  
Climate Effect ◽  
Spatial Factors ◽  
Space Partition

Urbanization has brought with it large populations in cities, which has then led to changes in urban land use intensity and spatial patterns, resulting in changes in underlying surfaces and urban climate. The impacts of the early urbanization process and the rapid development of the international metropolis on the interactive development of spatial zoning, urban climate, and urbanization in the main region of Shanghai are studied. This study has important practical and methodological implications with respect to two major themes in the current urban planning area of China, specifically, the construction of new urbanization and the changes in urban climate adaptation. Through the experiences of the human activities model from ecology, factors are selected based on the effects of climate on four dimensions, namely, economy, urban construction, ecological, and environment, where the weight of each index is determined by the coefficient of the variation method and the important spatial factors influencing the climate effect are screened out. The four important influential factors are population density, road density, built-up areas, and the green coverage ratio of spatial distribution. A quantitative analysis determined that there exists a consistent relationship between urban climate factors and the four urbanization spatial factors. Based on urbanization classification that considered each factor evaluation along with integrated analyses and statistical correlation analyses of the spatial grid index using ArcGIS software, the urban space partition level is identified, and urban spatial zoning strategies based on the co-movement of urban climate system are put forward. Combined with the zoning study of land use and the urban heat island distribution pattern, the spatial zoning strategy of controlling urbanization intensity based on the urban climate system is proposed. This research will guide the integration of the urbanization spatial structure and urban climate system toward rational development in Shanghai city.

scholarly journals The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian C. O'Neill ◽  
Claudia Tebaldi ◽  
Detlef van Vuuren ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP6) that that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land-use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP’s objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modelling, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the next IPCC assessment. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted scientific questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land-use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with climate model projections expected to be available within the 2018–2020 time frame.

scholarly journals Towards decision-based global land use models for improved understanding of the Earth system

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 875-925 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. D. A. Rounsevell ◽  
A. Arneth ◽  
P. Alexander ◽  
D. G. Brown ◽  
N. de Noblet-Ducoudré ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climate System ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Global Networks ◽  
Global Circulation Models

Abstract. A primary goal of Earth system modelling is to improve understanding of the interactions and feedbacks between human decision making and biophysical processes. The nexus of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and the climate system is an important example. LULCC contributes to global and regional climate change, while climate affects the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and LULCC. However, at present, LULCC is poorly represented in Global Circulation Models (GCMs). LULCC models that are explicit about human behaviour and decision making processes have been developed at local to regional scales, but the principles of these approaches have not yet been applied to the global scale level in ways that deal adequately with both direct and indirect feedbacks from the climate system. In this article, we explore current knowledge about LULCC modelling and the interactions between LULCC, GCMs and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). In doing so, we propose new ways forward for improving LULCC representations in Earth System Models. We conclude that LULCC models need to better conceptualise the alternatives for up-scaling from the local to global. This involves better representation of human agency, including processes such as learning, adaptation and agent evolution, formalising the role and emergence of governance structures, institutional arrangements and policy as endogenous processes and better theorising about the role of tele-connections and connectivity across global networks. Our analysis underlines the importance of observational data in global scale assessments and the need for coordination in synthesising and assimilating available data.

scholarly journals MIROC-INTEG1: A global bio-geochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
Tsuguki Kinoshita ◽  
Gen Sakurai ◽  
Yadu Pokhrel ◽  
Akihiko Ito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Surface Model

Abstract. Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. Future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human land-use change can affect the climate system through bio-geophysical and bio-geochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG1 (MIROC INTEGrated terrestrial model version 1), an integrated model that combines the global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land use models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the sub-models of MIROC-INTEG1, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify the various interactions between sub-models. MIROC-INTEG1 makes it possible to quantitatively evaluate the feedback processes or nexus between climate, water resources, crop production, land use, and ecosystem, and to assess the risks, trade-offs and co-benefits associated with future climate change and prospective mitigation and adaptation policies.

scholarly journals Towards decision-based global land use models for improved understanding of the Earth system

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. D. A. Rounsevell ◽  
A. Arneth ◽  
P. Alexander ◽  
D. G. Brown ◽  
N. de Noblet-Ducoudré ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Climate System ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Global Networks ◽  
Global Circulation Models

Abstract. A primary goal of Earth system modelling is to improve understanding of the interactions and feedbacks between human decision making and biophysical processes. The nexus of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and the climate system is an important example. LULCC contributes to global and regional climate change, while climate affects the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and LULCC. However, at present, LULCC is poorly represented in global circulation models (GCMs). LULCC models that are explicit about human behaviour and decision-making processes have been developed at local to regional scales, but the principles of these approaches have not yet been applied to the global scale level in ways that deal adequately with both direct and indirect feedbacks from the climate system. In this article, we explore current knowledge about LULCC modelling and the interactions between LULCC, GCMs and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In doing so, we propose new ways forward for improving LULCC representations in Earth system models. We conclude that LULCC models need to better conceptualise the alternatives for upscaling from the local to global scale. This involves better representation of human agency, including processes such as learning, adaptation and agent evolution, formalising the role and emergence of governance structures, institutional arrangements and policy as endogenous processes and better theorising about the role of teleconnections and connectivity across global networks. Our analysis underlines the importance of observational data in global-scale assessments and the need for coordination in synthesising and assimilating available data.

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