- Expected Values and Decision Making

2014 ◽  
pp. 368-389
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Expected Values

Using expected values to simplify decision making under uncertainty

Omega ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 312-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian N. Durbach ◽  
Theodor J. Stewart
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Under Uncertainty ◽  
Expected Values

scholarly journals Thermodynamic Model for Performance Analysis of a Stirling Engine Prototype

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2655 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Torres García ◽  
Elisa Carvajal Trujillo ◽  
José Vélez Godiño ◽  
David Sánchez Martínez
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transfer ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Stirling Engine ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Actual Behavior ◽  
Isothermal Model ◽  
Working Cycle ◽  
Stirling Engines ◽  
Expected Values ◽  
The Ideal

In this study, the results of simulations generated from different thermodynamic models of Stirling engines are compared, including characterizations of both instantaneous and indicated operative parameters. The aim was to develop a tool to guide the decision-making process regarding the optimization of both the performance and reliability of Stirling engines, such as the 2.9 kW GENOA 03 unit—the focus of this work. The behavior of the engine is characterized using two different approaches: an ideal isothermal model, the simplest of those available, and analysis using the ideal adiabatic model, which is more complex than the first. Some of the results obtained with the referred ideal models deviated considerably from the expected values, particularly in terms of thermal efficiency, so a set of modifications to the ideal adiabatic model are proposed. These modifications, mainly related to both heat transfer and fluid friction phenomena, are intended to overcome the limitations due to the idealization of the engine working cycle, and are expected to generate results closer to the actual behavior of the Stirling engine, despite the increase in the complexity derived from the modelling and simulation processes.

scholarly journals IT&C support for decision making in notary offices

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
George Schin ◽  
Margareta Racovita
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Business Development ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Feasibility Analysis ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Expected Values ◽  
The Right ◽  
Different Levels

The aim of this paper is to determine the most efficient strategic alternative in the case of a notary office, by taking into account the expected values associated to different levels of supplementary services requests by its customers. The determination of expected monetary values associated to the strategic alternatives by means of WinQSB software confirms the hypotheses concerning the feasibility analysis results and the manager’s ability to make the right decision from the financial point of view. Thus, the manager of the notary office will be able to make efficient decisions regarding the business development plan by using appropriate software tools, which deliver real time results in different simulation scenarios. Once the optimal decision is found, the notary office can seek to improve its business development strategy by taking into account more options and levels of supplementary services requests from the part of its customers.

scholarly journals Refined Expected Value Decision Rules under Orthopair Fuzzy Environment

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yige Xue ◽  
Yong Deng
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Choquet Integral ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Expected Values ◽  
Function Measure

Refined expected value decision rules can refine the calculation of the expected value and make decisions by estimating the expected values of different alternatives, which use many theories, such as Choquet integral, PM function, measure and so on. However, the refined expected value decision rules have not been applied to the orthopair fuzzy environment yet. To address this issue, in this paper we propose the refined expected value decision rules under the orthopair fuzzy environment, which can apply the refined expected value decision rules on the issues of decision making that is described in the orthopair fuzzy environment. Numerical examples were applied to verify the availability and flexibility of the new refined expected value decision rules model. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model can apply refined expected value decision rules in the orthopair fuzzy environment and solve the decision making issues with the orthopair fuzzy environment successfully.

The Adaptivity of Multiplicity

1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Siegler
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Scientific Reasoning ◽  
The Other ◽  
Alternative Approaches ◽  
Expected Values ◽  
Cognitive Variability ◽  
Ways Of Thinking ◽  
Situational Demands ◽  
New Strategies

By itself, cognitive variability would be an interesting curio, but no more. What makes it important is the potential it offers for adapting to task and situational demands. Realizing this potential, however, requires wise choices among the available alternatives. If children know two strategies—one faster, the other more accurate—they will benefit only if they choose the faster strategy when speed is most important and choose the more accurate when accuracy is. Choosing randomly will yield worse performance than always using the approach that on average yields the best outcome. Thus, the higher the quality of choices among alternative approaches, the greater the benefits of cognitive variability. How well do children choose? The conclusions of developmental psychologists have tended to emphasize the negative. Those interested in metacognition have focused on findings that children who have been taught new strategies often do not use them when they later are free to choose (e.g, Ghatala, Levin, Pressley, & Goodwin, 1986; Keeney, Cannizo, & Flavell, 1967; Paris & Lindauer, 1982; Williams & Goulet, 1975). Those interested in decision making have focused on situations in which children choose alternatives with lower expected values over ones with higher values (Byrnes & McClenny, 1994; Klayman, 1985). Those interested in planning have focused on situations in which children who have heard the virtues of planning extolled nonetheless fail to plan (Friedman, Scholnick, & Cocking, 1987). Those interested in scientific reasoning have emphasized cases in which children who have discovered advanced experimentation strategies nonetheless continue to choose less advanced ones (Kuhn, Amsel, & O’Laughlin 1988). These and related findings have led to generally negative conclusions about children’s ability to choose wisely among alternative ways of thinking. To cite two examples: . . . Children do not monitor well and often fail to make appropriate executive decisions.

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