Climate Change and Hydrological Hazards

2014 ◽  
pp. 53-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Hong ◽  
Lu Liu ◽  
Lei Qiao ◽  
Pradeep Adhikari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Hazards

Communicating water-related climate change hazards to local stakeholders

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Müller ◽  
Petra Döll
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Biosphere Reserve ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Local Stakeholders ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

<p>Due to climate change, the water cycle is changing which requires to adapt water management in many regions. The transdisciplinary project KlimaRhön aims at assessing water-related risks and developing adaptation measures in water management in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Rhön in Central Germany. One of the challenges is to inform local stakeholders about hydrological hazards in in the biosphere reserve, which has an area of only 2433 km² and for which no regional hydrological simulations are available. To overcome the lack of local simulations of the impact of climate change on water resources, existing simulations by a number of global hydrological models (GHMs) were evaluated for the study area. While the coarse model resolution of 0.5°x0.5° (55 km x 55 km at the equator) is certainly problematic for the small study area, the advantage is that both the uncertainty of climate simulations and hydrological models can be taken into account to provide a best estimate of future hazards and their (large) uncertainties. This is different from most local hydrological climate change impact assessments, where only one hydrological model is used, which leads to an underestimation of future uncertainty as different hydrological models translate climatic changes differently into hydrological changes and, for example, mostly do not take into account the effect of changing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> on evapotranspiration and thus runoff.   </p><p>The global climate change impact simulations were performed in a consistent manner by various international modeling groups following a protocol developed by ISIMIP (ISIMIP 2b, www.isimip.org); the simulation results are freely available for download. We processed, analyzed and visualized the results of the multi-model ensemble, which consists of eight GHMs driven by the bias-adjusted output of four general circulation models. The ensemble of potential changes of total runoff and groundwater recharge were calculated for two 30-year future periods relative to a reference period, analyzing annual and seasonal means as well as interannual variability. Moreover, the two representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to inform stakeholders about two possible courses of anthropogenic emissions.</p><p>To communicate the results to local stakeholders effectively, the way to present modeling results and their uncertainty is crucial. The visualization and textual/oral presentation should not be overwhelming but comprehensive, comprehensible and engaging. It should help the stakeholder to understand the likelihood of particular hazards that can be derived from multi-model ensemble projections. In this contribution, we present the communication approach we applied during a stakeholder workshop as well as its evaluation by the stakeholders.</p>

scholarly journals Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Urban Resilience: From Climate and Hydrological Hazards to Risk Analysis and Measures

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6430
Author(s):  
Marc Velasco ◽  
Beniamino Russo ◽  
Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Urban Resilience ◽  
Urban Services ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Resilience Management ◽  
Work Done

This Special Issue brings together recent research findings related to urban resilience, in particular taking into account climate change impacts and hydrological hazards. Taking advantage of the work done in the H2020 RESCCUE project, 12 different papers dealing with several issues related to the resilience of urban areas have been published. Due to the complexity of cities, urban resilience management is one of the key challenges that our societies have to deal with in the near future. In addition, urban resilience is a transversal and multi-sectorial issue, affecting different urban services, several hazards, and all the steps of the risk management cycle. This is precisely why the papers contained in this Special Issue focus on varied subjects, such as impact assessments, urban resilience assessments, adaptation strategies, flood risk and urban services, always focusing on at least two of these topics.

Analysis of EURO-CORDEX sub-daily rainfall simulations and derived event characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paola Nanni ◽  
David J. Peres ◽  
Rosaria E. Musumeci ◽  
Antonino Cancelliere
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
The Future

<p>Climate change is a phenomenon that is claimed to be responsible for a significant alteration of the precipitation regime in different regions worldwide and for the induced potential changes on related hydrological hazards. In particular, some consensus has raised about the fact that climate changes can induce a shift to shorter but more intense rainfall events, causing an intensification of urban and flash flooding hazards.  Regional climate models (RCMs) are a useful tool for trying to predict the impacts of climate change on hydrological events, although their application may lead to significant differences when different models are adopted. For this reason, it is of key importance to ascertain the quality of regional climate models (RCMs), especially with reference to their ability to reproduce the main climatological regimes with respect to an historical period. To this end, several studies have focused on the analysis of annual or monthly data, while few studies do exist that analyze the sub-daily data that are made available by the regional climate projection initiatives. In this study, with reference to specific locations in eastern Sicily (Italy), we first evaluate historical simulations of precipitation data from selected RCMs belonging to the Euro-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the Euro-Mediterranean area) with high temporal resolution (three-hourly), in order to understand how they compare to fine-resolution observations. In particular, we investigate the ability to reproduce rainfall event characteristics, as well as annual maxima precipitation at different durations. With reference to rainfall event characteristics, we specifically focus on duration, intensity, and inter-arrival time between events. Annual maxima are analyzed at sub-daily durations. We then analyze the future simulations according to different Representative concentration scenarios. The proposed analysis highlights the differences between the different RCMs, supporting the selection of the most suitable climate model for assessing the impacts in the considered locations, and to understand what trends for intense precipitation are to be expected in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Future changes in hydrological extremes of a Mediterranean catchment: what can we say in an uncertainty context?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lila Collet ◽  
Thibault Lemaitre-Basset ◽  
Guillaume Thirel ◽  
Juraj Parajka ◽  
Guillaume Evin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Change Impact

<p><span>The Mediterranean region is a hot spot for climate change impact on the water cycle where water resources are anticipated to decrease and hydrological extremes to intensify while population and water use conflicts growth would keep rising. However, the analysis of the uncertainty related to hydrological projections is generally poorly quantified and difficult to translate to decision-makers. In this study, an in-depth analysis of projections and uncertainties for extreme high- and low-flows was performed. Climatic projections derived from a recent downscaling method over France (Adamont, Verfaillie et al., 2017) were used, and hydrological projections were produced on the Hérault River catchment based on two different Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), five global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM) couples, three hydrological models (HMs), and twenty-nine calibration schemes (Lemaitre-Basset et al., sub). This ensemble was analysed with the QUALYPSO approach (Evin et al., 2019) that allows transient uncertainty analysis of ensembles derived from incomplete GCM/RCM matrix. The quasi-ergodic analysis of variance (QE-ANOVA) used in QUALYPSO evaluates the contribution of each impact modelling step to the total uncertainty. For high-flows, GCMs and RCPs contribute the most to the total uncertainty at the short and long lead-time, respectively. For low-flows, HMs structure and calibration period are the most important sources of uncertainty across 2006-2100. While high-flow projections show a significant mean increase of 30% by 2085 compared to the historical period (confidence intervals: [-1%; +64%]), low-flows would slightly decrease (-7%) by 2085, but with a higher uncertainty (confidence interval: [-24%; +13%]). The time horizons for which a change (e.g. -50, -20, -10, …, +10, +20, +50%) in high- and low-flows intensity becomes robust (i.e. when more than 66% of the ensemble is above/below a given threshold) were also assessed. This provides strong messages to water managers of the Hérault River catchment who can then anticipate the time needed to prepare and adapt to climate change impacts for extreme hydrological hazards.</span></p><p>References:</p><p>Evin, G., Hingray, B., Blanchet, J., Eckert, N., Morin, S., & Verfaillie, D. (2019). Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections Using Data Augmentation. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 32, 18. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0606.1</p><p>Lemaitre-Basset, T., Collet, L., Thirel, G., Parajka, J., Evin, G., Hingray, B. (submitted) Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis on hydrological extremes in a Mediterranean catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal</p><p>Verfaillie, D., Déqué, M., Morin, S., & Lafaysse, M. (2017). The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(11), 4257–4283. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017</p>

Nature-Based solutions for geo-hydrological risk reduction: the Portofino Park (Italy) experience in the H2020 RECONECT project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Faccini ◽  
Andrea Benedettini ◽  
Valentina Brodasca ◽  
Umberto Bruschini ◽  
Riccardo Giammarini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Protected Area ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Solid Transport ◽  
The Impact

<p>The Horizon 2020 RECONECT - Regenerating ECOsystems with Nature-Based Solutions for hydro-meteorological risk rEduCTion - Project aims to contribute to a European reference framework on NBS by demonstrating, upscaling and spreading large-scale NBSs in natural areas.</p><p>The Italian RECONECT demonstrator is set in the Portofino Park, which represents a unique natural and cultural landscape but is severely endangered by geo-hydrological hazards.</p><p>The most frequent processes are shallow landslides and flash floods, sea-storm surges, rockfalls and mud-debris flows. Often, several different processes can occur simultaneously during an intense meteorological event, causing a location specific multi-hazard effect.</p><p>This research introduces the NBSs interventions designed within the RECONECT Italian case study in two pilot catchments (San Fruttuoso and Paraggi basins), accessed by thousands of tourists throughout the year.</p><p>Amongst all possible interventions that can be implemented in the protected area, NBSs are considered to be most suitable due to their minimal impact and the possibilities for integration within the natural environment. The Portofino Park has already been promoting interventions aimed at reducing the impact of geo-hazards within the protected area in response to climate change. As part of the RECONECT project, and in order to achieve sound engineering and technological solutions which can also preserve unique landscapes of natural and cultural heritage, the Park authority is realizing a set of NBSs in San Fruttuoso and Paraggi catchments. The purpose of the design is to demonstrate how NBSs can be integrated into such areas and how to reduce geo-hydrological risk for given climate change scenarios within the framework of an ecosystem based holistic approach for risk reduction.</p><p>The main scope of NBSs in San Fruttuoso is to address following basic challenges: stabilizing of rock masses; reduction of geo-hydrologic risks in order to intercept and reduce suspended and solid transport along the streams as well as reducing erosion; forest management focused to improve biodiversity, to remove non-native species and dangerous old specimen (Pine trees), not suitable in a Mediterranean climate, in order to select the climax species (i.e. Quercus ilex); restoration of dry-stone walls with the aim to valorize the terraced landscape as well as stabilizing the slopes.</p><p>The reconstruction of terraces and the regeneration of natural and man-made ecosystems will also be implemented within the Paraggi basin. In addition, hydraulic-forestry arrangements on water courses will be undertaken to improve the outflow and decrease solid transport and floating debris. Furthermore, other measures such as riverbed and tributary implementations, maintenance along hiking paths, slope stabilization, and cleaning and removing dead vegetation and dirt will also be undertaken.</p><p>The project also includes hydro-meteorological monitoring activities in the selected basins and the periodic checking of NBSs performance indicators. Lastly, remote sensing surveys are used to quantitatively assess the ongoing gemorphogical processes.</p><p>In relation to future projections of natural and socio-economic impacts of climate change, NBS represent a relevant mitigation and adaptation strategy for the Portofino case study, which may be upscaled to national and international level.</p>

Co-developing a data and knowledge portal to support stakeholder risk assessments with uncertain, global, multi-model based information on hydrological hazards of climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Kneier ◽  
Denise Cáceres ◽  
Stephan Dietrich ◽  
Dirk Schwanenberg ◽  
Harald Köthe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Knowledge Portal

<p>Successful adaptation to climate change worldwide will require many local climate change risk assessments. However, appropriate and tailored climate services and information tools are lacking, particularly in developing countries. Co-produced, user-driven climate services are a recognized means for effective generation and provisioning of relevant climate information and support the utilization by decision-makers, enabling them to account for climate change in their risk portfolios. In the CO-MICC project (ERA4CS), a data and knowledge portal is co-developed with stakeholders based on global-scale multi-model simulations of hydrological variables. In a participatory manner, we focussed on (1) eliciting the relevant hydrological hazard indicators, (2) representing their uncertainty quantitatively in a way that is both scientifically correct and utilizable to the diverse users of the hazard information, and (3) creating guidance on how to integrate the uncertain global information into regional-scale assessments of water-related climate change risk and adaptation assessments. Adapting the tandem framework of the Swedish Environmental Institute (SEI), participatory stakeholder dialogues including seven workshops with stakeholders from focus regions in Europe and Northern Africa, and finally with globally-acting companies serve to integrate the various experiences, needs and expectations of various regions and users. Participants included local researchers, experts from meteorological services and decision-makers from regional and national hydrological agencies. Together, we co-produced relevant model output variables and appropriate end-user products encompassing static and dynamically generated information in a web portal. The global-scale information products include interactive maps, diagrams, time series graphs, and suitably co-developed statistics, with appropriate visualization of uncertainty. In complement, the knowledge tool provides transparent meta-information, tutorials and handbook guidelines to utilize the provided information in models of local participatory risk assessments. While CO-MICC enables access to this information to a broad range of stakeholders from around the world (policy makers, NGOs, the private sector, the research community, the public in general) for their region of interest, it additionally sheds light on the optimal design and methods of co-development processes.</p>

scholarly journals Climate change and water resources management in the coastal sub-basin of El Jadida Safi, Morocco

2021 ◽  
Vol 298 ◽  
pp. 02002
Author(s):  
Mounia El Azhari ◽  
Dalila Loudyi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
El Jadida ◽  
The Impact

According to the 5th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the temperature is projected to rise over the 21st century under all assessed emissions scenarios while precipitation will likely decrease, thus reducing renewable surface water and groundwater resources in most dry subtropical regions such as Morocco. Moreover, most projections of global circulation models predict a dryer future for North African countries. This work aims to assess the impact of climate variability on waterresources in the coastal sub-basin of El Jadida-Safi, located in the Oum Er-Rbia basin. In order to determine future climate projections in the coastal sub-basin by the year 2099, we are using SDSM, a statisticaldownscaling tool based on both observed and anthropogenic emission scenario data for the pessimistic scenario RCP 8.5 and the optimistic scenario RCP 4.5. Results will help decision-makers and stakeholders better manage their water resources, prepare for extreme hydrological hazards, and enhance development planning in the river basin.

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