World Fisheries and Climate Trend

2013 ◽  
pp. 202-226
Keyword(s):  
Climate Trend

Climate change impact on rainfall and temperature in Muda irrigation area using multicorrelation matrix and downscaling method

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 647-660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nurul Nadrah Aqilah Tukimat ◽  
Sobri Harun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Matrix Analysis ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
Correlation Relationship ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Rainfall Depth ◽  
Changing Trend ◽  
Change Impact

Statistical downscaling model was used to generate 30-year climate trend of Kedah – the state which has the largest cultivation area in Malaysia, resulting from climate changes. To obtain a better predictors set, multicorrelation matrix analysis was added in the climate model as a screening tool to explain the multiple correlation relationship among 26 predictors and 20 predictands. The performance of the predictor set was evaluated statistically in terms of mean absolute error, mean square error, and standard deviation. The simulation results depict the climatic changing trend in this region in terms of temperature, rainfall, and wet and dry length compared to historical data captured from 1961 to 2008. Annual temperature and rainfall depth are expected to increase 0.2 °C per decade and 0.9% per year, respectively, from the historical record. The months of November and January are expected to receive the highest and lowest rainfall depth, respectively, because of the two monsoon seasons. The wet spell is estimated to be from May to November in the middle of Kedah. The annual dry spell shall be from January to March, and is expected to shorten yearly.

Climate Extremes of the 2019/2020 Winter in Northern Eurasia: Contributions by the Climate Trend and Interannual Variability Related to the Arctic Oscillation

2021 ◽  
pp. 5-16
Author(s):  
V. N. Kryjov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

The 2019/2020 wintertime (December–March) anomalies of sea level pressure, temperature, and precipitation are analyzed. The contribution of the 40-year linear trend in these parameters associated with global climate change and of the interannual variability associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is assessed. In the 2019/2020 winter, extreme zonal circulation was observed. The mean wintertime AO index was 2.20, which ranked two for the whole observation period (started in the early 20th century) and was outperformed only by the wintertime index of 1988/1989. It is shown that the main contribution to the 2019/2020 wintertime anomalies was provided by the AO. A noticeable contribution of the trend was observed only in the Arctic. Extreme anomalies over Northern Eurasia were mainly associated with the AO rather than the trend. However, the AO-related anomalies, particularly air temperature anomalies, were developing against the background of the trend-induced increased mean level.

Historical climate and stream flow trends and future water demand analysis in the Calgary region, Canada

2006 ◽  
Vol 53 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Chen ◽  
S.E. Grasby ◽  
K.G. Osadetz ◽  
P. Fesko
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
Sustainable Water Supply

The city of Calgary has been one of fastest growing cities in Canada in recent years. Rapid population growth and a warming climate trend have raised concerns about sustainable water supply. In this study, historic climate, stream flow and population data are analyzed in order to develop models of future climate trends and river-water resource availability. Daily water demands for the next 60 years were projected using the relationship between daily maximum temperature and water demand under simulated climate and population growth scenarios. To maintain sustainable growth Calgary will require water conservation efforts that reduce per capita water use to less than half of the current level over the next 60 years, an interval when the civic population is expected to be doubled.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff Generation in an Andean Glacier Watershed

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3547
Author(s):  
Rossana Escanilla-Minchel ◽  
Hernán Alcayaga ◽  
Marco Soto-Alvarez ◽  
Christophe Kinnard ◽  
Roberto Urrutia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
Snow Storage ◽  
South Central ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
The Impact

Excluding Antarctica and Greenland, 3.8% of the world’s glacier area is concentrated in Chile. The country has been strongly affected by the mega drought, which affects the south-central area and has produced an increase in dependence on water resources from snow and glacier melting in dry periods. Recent climate change has led to an elevation of the zero-degree isotherm, a decrease in solid-state precipitation amounts and an accelerated loss of glacier and snow storage in the Chilean Andes. This situation calls for a better understanding of future water discharge in Andean headwater catchments in order to improve water resources management in glacier-fed populated areas. The present study uses hydrological modeling to characterize the hydrological processes occurring in a glacio-nival watershed of the central Andes and to examine the impact of different climate change scenarios on discharge. The study site is the upper sub-watershed of the Tinguiririca River (area: 141 km2), of which nearly 20% is covered by Universidad Glacier. The semi-distributed Snowmelt Runoff Model + Glacier (SRM+G) was forced with local meteorological data to simulate catchment runoff. The model was calibrated on even years and validated on odd years during the 2008–2014 period and found to correctly reproduce daily runoff. The model was then forced with downscaled ensemble projected precipitation and temperature series under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, and the glacier adjusted using a volume-area scaling relationship. The results obtained for 2050 indicate a decrease in mean annual discharge (MAD) of 18.1% for the lowest emission scenario and 43.3% for the most pessimistic emission scenario, while for 2100 the MAD decreases by 31.4 and 54.2%, respectively, for each emission scenario. Results show that decreasing precipitation lead to reduced rainfall and snowmelt contributions to discharge. Glacier melt thus partly buffers the drying climate trend, but our results show that the peak water occurs near 2040, after which glacier depletion leads to reducing discharge, threatening the long-term water resource availability in this region.

scholarly journals The Possible Reasons for the Misrepresented Long-Term Climate Trends in the Seasonal Forecasts of HFP2

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (9) ◽  
pp. 3154-3169 ◽  
Author(s):  
XiaoJing Jia ◽  
Hai Lin
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
Eurasian Continent ◽  
Sst Anomaly

Abstract The climate trend in a dynamical seasonal forecasting system is examined using 33-yr multimodel ensemble (MME) forecasts from the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2). It is found that the warming trend of the seasonal forecast in March–May (MAM) over the Eurasian continent is in a good agreement with that in the observations. However, the seasonal forecast failed to reproduce the observed pronounced surface air temperature (SAT) trend in December–February (DJF). The possible reasons responsible for the different behaviors of the HFP2 models in MAM and DJF are investigated. Results show that the initial conditions used for the HFP2 forecast system in MAM have a warming trend over the Eurasian continent, which may come from high-frequency weather systems, whereas the initial conditions for the DJF seasonal forecast do not have such a trend. This trend in the initial condition contributes to the trend of the seasonal forecast in the first month. On the other hand, an examination of the lower boundary SST anomaly forcing shows that the SST trend in MAM has a negative SST anomaly along the central equatorial Pacific, which is favorable for a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation atmospheric response and a warming over the Eurasian continent. The long-term SST trend used for the seasonal forecast in DJF, however, has a negative trend in the tropical eastern Pacific, which is associated with a Pacific–North American pattern–like atmospheric response that has little contribution to a warming in the Eurasian continent.

Metrology for Climate Sciences: The European Metrology Network for Climate and Ocean Observation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Woolliams ◽  
Paola Fisicaro ◽  
Nigel Fox ◽  
Céline Pascale ◽  
Steffen Seitz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Assurance ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Earth Observation ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
National Metrology Institutes ◽  
Wide Range

<div> <p>Environmental observations of essential climate variables (ECVs) and related quantities made by satellites and in situ observational networks are used for a wide range of societal applications. To identify a small climate trend from an observational record that is also sensitive to changes in weather, to seasonal effects and to geophysical processes, it is essential that observations have a stable basis that holds for multiple decades, whilst still allowing for changes in the observation instrumentation and operational procedures. To achieve this, all aspects of data collection and handling must be underpinned by robust quality assurance. The resultant data should also be linked to a common reference, with well-understood uncertainty analysis, so that observations are interoperable and coherent; in other words, measurements by different organisations, different instruments and different techniques should be able to be meaningfully combined and compared.    </p> </div><div> <p>Metrology, the science of measurement, can provide a critical role in enabling robust, interoperable and stable observational records and can aid users in judging the fitness-for-purpose of such records. In addition to Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) monitoring principles, metrology’s value, and the role of National Metrology Institutes (NMI) in observations, has been recognised in initiatives such as the Quality Assurance Framework for Earth Observation (QA4EO) established by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and in the implementation plans of the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO’s), Global Atmosphere Watch and the European Ocean Observing System.  </p> </div><div> <p>The European Association for National Metrology Institutes (EURAMET) has recently created the “European Metrology Network (EMN) for Climate and Ocean Observation” to support further engagement of the expert communities with metrologists at national metrology insitutes and to encourage Europe’s metrologists to coordinate their research in response to community needs. The EMN has a scope that covers metrological support for in situ and remote sensing observations of atmosphere, land and ocean ECVs (and related parameters) for climate applications. It also covers the additional economic and ecological applications of ocean Essential Ocean Variable (EOV) observations. It is the European contribution to a global effort to further enhance metrological best practice into such observations through targeted research efforts.  </p> </div><div> <p>In late 2019 and early 2020 the EMN carried out a survey to identify the need for metrology within the observational communities and held a webinar workshop to prioritise the identified needs. Here we present the results of the survey and discuss the role that metrology can play in the climate observing system of the future. </p> </div>

A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia: examining subseasonal climate impacts on crops and pasture conditions

2017 ◽  
Vol 142 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 169-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Molly E. Brown ◽  
Chris Funk ◽  
Diego Pedreros ◽  
Diriba Korecha ◽  
Melesse Lemma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Climate Trend
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