A warning model of systemic financial risks

2013 ◽  
pp. 47-50
Author(s):  
Wenbin Xu ◽  
Qingda Wang
Keyword(s):  
Financial Risks ◽  
Warning Model

scholarly journals Financial Risk Early-Warning Model Based on Kernel Principal Component Analysis in Public Hospitals

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Manxiang Qu ◽  
Yuexin Li
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Component Analysis ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Public Hospitals ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Kernel Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Warning Model

Public hospitals are facing the dual pressure of coping with external medical market competition and performing public health duties. Due to the influence of various risk factors, public hospitals are facing increasing financial risks. How to effectively prevent and control financial risks and maintain the normal operation and sustainable development of the hospital is a very important topic that needs to be studied in the development of public hospitals. Because the traditional principal component analysis method only pays attention to the global structural features and ignores the local structural features, a financial risk early-warning model based on improved kernel principal component analysis in public hospitals is proposed to improve the ability of risk assessment. The core ideas of the method in this paper for financial risk forecasting are as follows: the nonlinear features of the financial data are firstly extracted under different conditions, and then the feature matrix and the optimal feature vector are calculated to construct the distance statistics so as to determines the threshold by kernel density estimation; finally the Fisher discriminant analysis is used for similarity measurement to identify the risk types. Through experiments on the financial data of a number of public hospitals and listed companies, the experimental results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method used in this paper for financial risk analysis. This further shows that this research has a certain display significance.

scholarly journals Research on Financial Risk Early Warning of Listed Companies Based on Stochastic Effect Mode

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Liduo Zhang ◽  
Lina Zhang ◽  
Mohammed Basheri ◽  
Hafnida Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Random Effect Model ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Early Warning Model ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Warning Model

Abstract In the current era, the market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, complicated and unpredictable. Based on the interaction of various factors, the probability of financial risks of listed companies is significantly improved. Because of its unique characteristics, the listed companies’ operating status affects the overall operation of China’s market economy and occupies a fundamental position in the national economic system. If listed companies have financial risks, it will cause great trauma to our economy. Based on the financial risk evaluation theory of listed companies, this paper analyzes the financial indicators of listed companies through random effect model, and puts forward the risk analysis and prediction index system of listed companies from theoretical and empirical angles, thus constructing a financial risk early warning model based on linear random effect model, and studying the financial risk early warning of listed companies with practical cases. The research results show that the financial risk early warning model of random effect model is feasible and effective, which can help listed companies to carry out financial risk early warning management and improve financial management level.

Intelligent Early Warning of Internet Financial Risks Based on Mobile Computing

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 61-78
Author(s):  
Mu Sheng Dong
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Original Algorithm ◽  
Early Warning Model ◽  
Warning Interval ◽  
Internet Finance ◽  
Warning Model ◽  
The Given

In order to establish the early warning model of internet finance, K-means algorithm improved by quantum evolutionary is used in this paper to divide risk early-warning interval by combining with the given initial value and the value-at-risk measured by China's well-known internet finance company. With the characteristics of parallelism and randomness, quantization algorithm is introduced into K-means algorithm to improve the search efficiency of original algorithm on the basis of maintaining the diversity of population. The sample is conducted with optimal segmentation by using improved algorithm to obtain the accurate early-warning interval and then the risk prediction model for internet financial institutions will be established by using the advantages of GMDH predictive mining and combining with the value-at-risk measured by “Renren Loan” Company. The effectiveness of early-warning model will be illustrated by comparing the actual situation of internet financial companies with more than 40,000 data of “Renren Loan” Company from January 2017 to October 2018.

The Soviet and Western theories of financial management – The competition or the partnership?

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 991-1016
Author(s):  
A.G. Lukin
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Management Theory ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Dialectical Approach ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
Effective System

Subject. This article explores the main points of the theory of financial management, developed within the framework of the Western general theory of finance, and the theory of financial management developed in the Soviet Union. Objectives. The article aims to substantiate an idea that these theories are complementary, and their harmonious application can help build the most effective system of financial relations management at both the macro-and microeconomic levels. Methods. For the study, I used a dialectical approach and the methods of comparison, analysis and synthesis, and historical analysis. Results. The article substantiates the point that the methodology of Western financial management theory is aimed at managing external financial flows and combating external financial risks. It notes that the Soviet theory regulates methods and techniques of financial management within the business entity or the State. Conclusions. Theoretical updating of the Soviet practices of financial management combined with the modern achievements of financial management theory will create conditions for the formation of an optimal financial management structure at both the micro-and macroeconomic levels. This can improve the efficiency of financial management, in general. Renewed interest in the theoretical developments of the Soviet Union will contribute to the development of financial science at the present stage.

STUDY OF CAMEL RATING SYSTEM IN BANKING SUPERVISION- A CASE STUDY OF NEPAL BANGLADESH BANK LTD

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 74-96
Author(s):  
Dr. S.U. Gawde ◽  
Prof.. Alekha Chandra Panda ◽  
Prof. Devyani Ingale
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Critical Elements ◽  
Financial Soundness ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Asset Quality

The banking sector  plays in important role in the country’s economy, acting as an intermediary to all industries. As the banking sector has a major impact on the economy as a whole. Performance evaluation of the banking sector is an effective measure and indicator to check the soundness of economic activities of an economy. Many methods are employed to analyse banking performance. One of the popular methods is the CAMELS framework, developed in the early 1970’s by federal regulators in the USA. The CAMELS rating system is based upon an evaluation of six critical elements of a financial institution’s operations: Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management soundness, Earnings and profitability, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to market risk. Under this bank is required to enhance capital adequacy, strengthen asset quality, improve management, increase earnings, maintain liquidity, and reduce sensitivity to various financial risks. In the present study an attempt was made to evaluate the performance & financial soundness of NEPAL BANGLADESH BANK LTD using CAMEL approach. Quantitative parameters are computed and updated on a quarterly basis while in respect of the qualitative parameters the ratings / marks given at the time of previous on-site examination

Financial Risks of the Bank: Assessment and Mechanism of Neutralization

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-12
Author(s):  
Nelia Volkova ◽  
◽  
Alina Mukhina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Relevant Today ◽  
Banking Institution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Introduction. The issue of financial risk management of commercial banks is quite relevant today, because the activity of banks is the most risky of all. The presence of risks in banking can lead to unexpected losses, namely the loss of own resources. That’s why for the stable operation of the bank without loss the priority is to assess the financial risks, which is the basis for their further neutralization. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to develop conceptual provisions for assessment financial risks and justifying the need to neutralize them. Results. The article analyzes the impact of risks on the financial stability of a banking institution. The main methods of bank risk assessment are considered. All these include the statistical method, the analytical method, the expert method, the analogue method and the combined method. The necessity of neutralization of financial risks in order to avoid negative consequences is substantiated. Also the methods of bank risks neutralization are considered. It should be noted that these methods of neutralization can not only be used, but also supplement the list with new methods must be done, which in the future will protect the bank from the influence of undesirable factors. A conceptual approach to the assessment and neutralization of financial risks is proposed. This conceptual approach aims to ensure effective assessment of the level of risk with their subsequent neutralization Conclusions. Use of a conceptual approach will allow an effective risk assessment and decision-making to avoid or accept risk. Thanks to using this approach, the banking institution will be able to react swiftly to the presence of financial risks and to prevent the occurrence of negative consequences, which may lead to a violation of the financial stability of the bank.

FEATURES OF RISK MANAGEMENT AFTER REALIZING PPP PROJECTS

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (12) ◽  
pp. 179-190
Author(s):  
Mariya Zinovievivna Masik
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
The State ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Contract Negotiations ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Force Majeure ◽  
Investment Agreement ◽  
The Law ◽  
Partnership Agreement

The article is devoted to the clarification of the peculiarities of risk management during the implementation of PPP projects. The author identifies a set of risks for a private partner, business risks of PPP projects and the main risks associated with the protests of the public, as well as public and international organizations. The typical risks of PPP projects are presented, including force majeure, political risks, profitability risks, operational, construction, financial risks, and the risk of default. The world experience of sharing risks between the partners is presented. Also named are the main methods for assessing the risks of PPP projects. It has been determined that the conditions on which the parties should reach agreement in order for the contract to be concluded are essential. Risk management can be implemented within the framework of the essential conditions for the allocation of risks. However, the provisions of the law provide for the allocation of only those risks identified by the results of an analysis of the effectiveness of the PPP project. Legislation does not directly determine how risks can be allocated to the risks identified during the pre-contract negotiations (or even at a later stage), but not taken into account in the analysis of efficiency. For example, suggestions on the terms of the partnership agreement as part of the bidding proposal may include suggestions on risk management mechanisms. There are no definite and can not be fully defined possible ways of managing risks in view of their specificity for a particular project. For this purpose, it is advisable to provide for a period of familiarization with the draft tender documentation and the possibility of making changes to it based on the findings received from potential contestants. It is also advisable to foresee cases in which it is possible to review certain terms of the contract without a competition. It is substantiated that the law does not restrict the possibility of foreseeing specific terms of an agreement on the implementation of the PPP project or to conclude additional (auxiliary) contractual instruments (for example, an investment agreement). At the same time, when laying down conditions not provided for by law, it is necessary to take into account the scope of competence of the state partner. Also, in order to ensure the principle of equality of conditions, the state partner should provide such additional conditions in the tender documentation.

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