2D hydraulic model integration to real-time flash flood forecasting chain

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Girard ◽  
T Godfroy ◽  
M Erlich ◽  
E David ◽  
C Sorbet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Hydraulic Model ◽  
Model Integration ◽  
Flash Flood Forecasting

Real-Time Flash Flood Forecasting

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
Robert A. Clark
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
The United States ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Flash Flood Forecasting

Flash floods are one of the world’s deadliest and costliest weather-related natural hazards. In the United States alone, they account for an average of approximately 80 fatalities per year. Damages to crops and infrastructure are particularly costly. In 2015 alone, flash floods accounted for over $2 billion of losses; this was nearly half the total cost of damage caused by all weather hazards. Flash floods can be either pluvial or fluvial, but their occurrence is primarily driven by intense rainfall. Predicting the specific locations and times of flash floods requires a multidisciplinary approach because the severity of the impact depends on meteorological factors, surface hydrologic preconditions and controls, spatial patterns of sensitive infrastructure, and the dynamics describing how society is using or occupying the infrastructure. Real-time flash flood forecasting systems rely on the observations and/or forecasts of rainfall, preexisting soil moisture and river-stage states, and geomorphological characteristics of the land surface and subsurface. The design of the forecast systems varies across the world in terms of their forcing, methodology, forecast horizon, and temporal and spatial scales. Their diversity can be attributed at least partially to the availability of observing systems and numerical weather prediction models that provide information at relevant scales regarding the location, timing, and severity of impending flash floods. In the United States, the National Weather Service (NWS) has relied upon the flash flood guidance (FFG) approach for decades. This is an inverse method in which a hydrologic model is run under differing rainfall scenarios until flooding conditions are reached. Forecasters then monitor observations and forecasts of rainfall and issue warnings to the public and local emergency management communities when the rainfall amounts approach or exceed FFG thresholds. This technique has been expanded to other countries throughout the world. Another approach, used in Europe, relies on model forecasts of heavy rainfall, where anomalous conditions are identified through comparison of the forecast cumulative rainfall (in space and time) with a 20-year archive of prior forecasts. Finally, explicit forecasts of flash flooding are generated in real time across the United States based on estimates of rainfall from a national network of weather radar systems.

scholarly journals Implementation of a Unique Real Time Flash Flood Forecasting System in Martinique (France)

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nelly Peyron ◽  
◽  
Mireille Raymond ◽  
Frederic Alfonsi ◽  
Bernard Naigre ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Flash Flood Forecasting

An All-Season Flash Flood Forecasting System for Real-Time Operations

2014 ◽  
Vol 95 (3) ◽  
pp. 399-407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Broxton ◽  
Peter A. Troch ◽  
Mike Schaffner ◽  
Carl Unkrich ◽  
David Goodrich
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Flood Prediction ◽  
Infiltration Excess ◽  
Flash Flood Forecasting

Flash floods can cause extensive damage to both life and property, especially because they are difficult to predict. Flash flood prediction requires high-resolution meteorological observations and predictions, as well as calibrated hydrological models, which should effectively simulate how a catchment filters rainfall inputs into streamflow. Furthermore, because of the requirement of both hydrological and meteorological components in flash flood forecasting systems, there must be extensive data handling capabilities built in to force the hydrological model with a variety of available hydrometeorological data and predictions, as well as to test the model with hydrological observations. The authors have developed a working prototype of such a system, called KINEROS/hsB-SM, after the hydrological models that are used: the Kinematic Erosion and Runoff (KINEROS) and hillslope-storage Boussinesq Soil Moisture (hsB-SM) models. KINEROS is an event-based overland flow and channel routing model that is designed to simulate flash floods in semiarid regions where infiltration excess overland flow dominates, while hsB-SM is a continuous subsurface flow model, whose model physics are applicable in humid regions where saturation excess overland flow is most important. In addition, KINEROS/hsB-SM includes an energy balance snowmelt model, which gives it the ability to simulate flash floods that involve rain on snow. There are also extensive algorithms to incorporate high-resolution hydrometeorological data, including stage III radar data (5 min, 1° by 1 km), to assist in the calibration of the models, and to run the model in real time. The model is currently being used in an experimental fashion at the National Weather Service Binghamton, New York, Weather Forecast Office.

scholarly journals Flood Forecasting and Warning System Structures: Procedure and Application to a Small Urban Stream in South Korea

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song ◽  
Park ◽  
Lee ◽  
Park ◽  
Song
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Urban Stream ◽  
Forecasting And Warning ◽  
Flood Warnings

The runoff from heavy rainfall reaches urban streams quickly, causing them to rise rapidly. It is therefore of great importance to provide sufficient lead time for evacuation planning and decision making. An efficient flood forecasting and warning method is crucial for ensuring adequate lead time. With this objective, this paper proposes an analysis method for a flood forecasting and warning system, and establishes the criteria for issuing urban-stream flash flood warnings based on the amount of rainfall to allow sufficient lead time. The proposed methodology is a nonstructural approach to flood prediction and risk reduction. It considers water level fluctuations during a rainfall event and estimates the upstream (alert point) and downstream (confluence) water levels for water level analysis based on the rainfall intensity and duration. We also investigate the rainfall/runoff and flow rate/water level relationships using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and the HEC’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) models, respectively, and estimate the rainfall threshold for issuing flash flood warnings depending on the backwater state based on actual watershed conditions. We present a methodology for issuing flash flood warnings at a critical point by considering the effects of fluctuations in various backwater conditions in real time, which will provide practical support for decision making by disaster protection workers. The results are compared with real-time water level observations of the Dorim Stream. Finally, we verify the validity of the flash flood warning criteria by comparing the predicted values with the observed values and performing validity analysis.

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