All-Hazard Public Health: Business as Usual

2012 ◽  
pp. 184-199 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
H Hilderink

Abstract The four-year Public Health Foresight Study (VTV) provides insight into the most important societal challenges for public health and health care in the Netherlands. The seventh edition of the Dutch Public Health Foresight study was published in 2018, with an update in 2020. In this update a business-as-usual or Trend Scenario was developed using 2018 as a base year. In the trend scenario demographic and epidemiological projections have been used to depict the future trends regarding ageing, health, disease, health behaviors, health expenditures and health inequalities. Next, these trends are used to identify the most important future challenges and opportunities for public health. In the 2020 update, special attentions is given to climate change and the local living environment and their impacts and interaction with public health outcomes. Trends in lifestyle-related lifestyle show both positive (smoking prevalence) and negative (overweight prevalence) future developments. Dementia will be the leading cause of mortality and disease burden in 2040 by far. Health care expenditures will double by 2040, with cancers showing the most rapid growth of all disease groups. The insights of this study are directly used as input for the National Health Policy Memorandum and for the National Prevention Accord.


Author(s):  
Paulo Gabriel Santos Campos de Siqueira ◽  
Alexandre Calumbi Antunes de Oliveira ◽  
Heitor Oliveira Duarte ◽  
Márcio das Chagas Moura

We have developed a probabilistic model to quantify the risks of COVID-19 explosion in Brazil, the epicenter of COVID-19 in Latin America. By explosion, we mean an excessive number of new infections that would overload the public health system. We made predictions from July 12th to Oct 10th, 2020 for various containment strategies, including business as usual, stay at home (SAH) for young and elderly, flight restrictions among regions, gradual resumption of business and the compulsory wearing of masks. They indicate that: if a SAH strategy were sustained, there would be a negligible risk of explosion and the public health system would not be overloaded. For the other containment strategies, the scenario that combines the gradual resumption of business with the mandatory wearing of masks would be the most effective, reducing risk to considerable category. Should this strategy is applied together with the investment in more Intensive Care Unit beds, risk could be reduced to negligible levels. A sensitivity analysis sustained that risks would be negligible if SAH measures were adopted thoroughly.


Author(s):  
Marieke Verschuuren ◽  
Henk B M Hilderink ◽  
Robert A A Vonk

Abstract Background The use of foresight studies is common in some policy fields, but not in public health. Interest in such studies is growing. This paper gives a general overview of the Dutch Public Health Foresight Study (PHFS) 2018, providing insight into what performing a broad scenario exercise in the field of public health entails and its societal impacts. Methods The aim of the PHFS-2018 was: (a) to show how public health and healthcare in the Netherlands will develop over the next 25 years if we pursue our current course and detect ‘new’ developments; (b) to give options for dealing with the major future societal challenges. Part a was addressed by means of a quantitative business-as-usual scenario exercise complemented with qualitative thematic studies, and part b by elaborating courses of action for three key challenges, based on stakeholder consultation. Typical aspects of the PHFS methods are a multidisciplinary, participatory and conceptual approach and using a broad definition of health. Results The PHFS-2018 is the basis for the upcoming National Health Policy Memorandum and the Trend Scenario is the baseline for the National Prevention Agreement. Unexpectedly, the findings about increasing mental pressure in young people received most attention. There still is room for expanding use of the study to its full potential. Conclusions Long-term thinking could be stimulated by using back casting techniques and stronger involvement of policy-makers in the elaboration of options for action. Lessons learned from developing intersectoral policy at the local level could be applied at the national level.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-151
Author(s):  
Chad P. Bown ◽  
Petros C. Mavroidis

Our annual gathering in Florence (8 and 9 July 2019), generously sponsored by the European University Institute, amidst the crisis at the WTO, was business as usual. Trading nations continue to entrust the WTO dispute settlement system with the adjudication of their disputes. The conference covered a very healthy number of disputes across different subject matter, ranging from antidumping duties to protection of public health.


2021 ◽  
pp. 088740342110203
Author(s):  
Dick M. Carpenter ◽  
Kyle Sweetland ◽  
Jennifer McDonald

This study examines taxation by citation—local governments using code enforcement and the justice system to raise revenue rather than solely to advance public health and safety. It does so through a detailed case study of Morrow, Riverdale, and Clarkston, three Georgia cities with a history of prolific revenue generation through fines and fees from traffic and other ordinance enforcement. Results suggest taxation by citation is a function of the perceived need for revenue and the ability to realize it through code enforcement. Moreover, the phenomenon may be a matter of systemic incentives. City leaders need not be motivated by simple rapaciousness. They may see fines and fees revenue as the answer to their cities’ problems. Once in effect, the mechanisms necessary for taxation by citation—such as highly efficient court procedures—may stick, becoming business as usual.


2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Dyakova ◽  
K Ashton ◽  
A Stielke ◽  
M A Bellis

Abstract Issue Urgent action is needed to address the growing health, inequity, economic and planetary challenges that threaten the wellbeing of present and future generations. Business as usual has proven unsustainable with high human, social, economic and environmental costs. Coordinated policy action on the determinants of health combined with well-designed and implemented governance and innovative investment approaches can have a dual effect: a) reducing the health gap; and b) improving overall population health. Description The WHO Collaborating Centre on Investment for Health and Wellbeing has developed a practical step-by-step guide, outlining the process of how to synthesise, translate and communicate public health and economics evidence into policy and practice, in order to make the case for investment in wellbeing and health equity. It aims to: 1) prevent disinvestment in health; 2) increase investment in prevention / public health; and 3) mainstream cross-sector investment to address the wider determinants of health and equity, driving prosperity for all. Building on the Knowledge-to-Action framework and an extensive international multi-disciplinary consultation, four key phases are described: 1) Project scoping and planning; 2) Evidence gathering, synthesis and design; 3) Dissemination and communication; and 4) Monitoring and evaluation. Key messages, different products and a number of practical tools and tips are highlighted. An essential element is using health economics approaches and tools to build the case, showing the burden of inaction in parallel with available sustainable solutions, which can bring ‘social return on investment’. Results/Lessons The result of the above-described process is the development of evidence-informed, context-tailored advocacy documents and tools, enabling healthy policy- and decision-making across different sectors, levels of government and country settings.


1997 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-16
Author(s):  
Terrey Oliver Penn ◽  
Susan E. Abbott

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