A probabilistic model for online scenario labeling in dynamic event tree generation

2011 ◽  
pp. 277-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
D Zamalieva ◽  
A Yilmaz ◽  
T Aldemir
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Dynamic Event ◽  
Tree Generation

scholarly journals Nuclear Power Plant Cyber Security Discrete Dynamic Event Tree Analysis (LDRD 17-0958) FY17 Report

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy A. Wheeler ◽  
Matthew R. Denman ◽  
R. A. Williams ◽  
Nevin Martin ◽  
Zachary Kyle Jankovsky
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Discrete Dynamic ◽  
Dynamic Event

Application of Bayesian Networks in Dynamic Event Tree Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
pp. 340-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongbao Zhou ◽  
Xuan Zeng ◽  
Haitao Li ◽  
Siya Lui ◽  
Chaoqun Ma
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Event

scholarly journals Predicting the probability of Mount Merapi eruption using Bayesian Event Tree_Eruption Forecasting

2018 ◽  
Vol 154 ◽  
pp. 01050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dyah Ika Rinawati ◽  
Diana Puspita Sari ◽  
Naniek Utami Handayani ◽  
Bramasta Raga Siwi
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Management ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Volcanic Event ◽  
Volcanic Explosivity Index ◽  
Bayesian Event Tree ◽  
Phase Prediction ◽  
Main Crater ◽  
Logical Information

Mount Merapi is one of the active volcanoes in Indonesia that had varied eruption periods from two to eight years. Due to the density of the population living around the slopes of Mount Merapi, its eruptions caused high number of victims. In order to avoid high number of victims, the disaster management should be improved. Disaster management consist of four phases i.e. mitigation, preparedness, response and reconstruction. In disaster mitigation phase, prediction of the Merapi unrest probability is needed. This paper focus on how to predict the probability of Merapi unrest based on volcano-logical information by using Bayesian Event Tree. Bayesian Event Tree (BET) is a probabilistic model that merges all kinds of volcano-logical information to obtain probability of any relevant volcanic event. The result showed that the probability of Merapi unrest is 0,822. In the next eruption, it has predicted that the volcanic explosivity index (VEI) 2 was biggest chance with the probability of 0,549. It showed that the eruption will take place in the main crater of Merapi with the probability of 0,938.

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