Spatial sensitivity of seismic hazard results to background seismic activity models

2011 ◽  
pp. 1496-1503
Author(s):  
N Yilmaz ◽  
M Yucemen
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Spatial Sensitivity ◽  
Activity Models ◽  
Background Seismic Activity

Effects of temporal variations in seismicity on seismic hazard

1981 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 321-334
Author(s):  
Robin K. McGuire ◽  
Theodore P. Barnhard
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Ground Shaking

abstract The accuracy of stationary mathematical models of seismicity for calculating probabilities of damaging shaking is examined using the history of earthquakes in China from 1350 A.D. to 1949 A.D. During this time, rates of seismic activity varied periodically by a factor of 10. Probabilities of damaging shaking are calculated in 62 cities in North China using 50 yr of earthquake data to estimate seismicity parameters; the probabilities are compared to statistics of damaging shaking in the same cities for 50 yr following the data window. These comparisons indicate that the seismic hazard analysis is accurate if: (1) the maximum possible earthquake size in each seismogenic zone is determined from the entire seismic history rather than from a short-time window; and (2) the future seismic activity can be estimated accurately. The first condition emphasizes the importance of realistically estimating the maximum possible size of earthquakes on faults. The second indicates the need to understand possible trends in seismic activity where these exist, or to develop an earthquake prediction capability with which to estimate future activity. Without the capability of estimating future seismicity, stationary models provide less accurate but generally conservative indications of seismic ground-shaking hazard. In the United States, the available earthquake history is brief but gives no indication of changing rates of activity. The rate of seismic strain release in the Central and Eastern United States has been constant over the last 180 yr, and the geological record of earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault indicates no temporal trend for large shocks over the last 15 centuries. Both observations imply that seismic activity is either stationary or of such a long period that it may be treated as stationary for seismic hazard analyses in the United States.

A study of the aftershocks and focal mechanism of the Salinas-Watsonville earthquakes of August 31 and September 14, 1963

1965 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agustin Udias
Keyword(s):  
Focal Mechanism ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Main Shock ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Principal Axes ◽  
Mobile Stations ◽  
Earthquake Sequences ◽  
Background Seismic Activity

Abstract The earthquake sequences connected with the earthquakes of August 31 and September 14, 1963 in the Salinas-Watsonville region of California are here studied with reference to the background seismic activity. A very favorable distribution of permanent and mobile stations in this area permits the analysis to include earthquakes of small magnitudes. The mechanism of the larger aftershocks of both sequences is found to be similar to the mechanism of the main shock of September 14, 1963. The orientation of the principal axes of stress derived from the focal mechanism of the September 14 earthquake, is related to the strike of the San Andreas fault.

scholarly journals Seismogenic ancient structures of the central and northern part of the East European platform

2019 ◽  
Vol 489 (4) ◽  
pp. 405-408
Author(s):  
V. V. Adushkin ◽  
I. A. Sanina ◽  
G. N. Ivanchenko ◽  
E. M. Gorbunova ◽  
I. P. Gabsatarova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
East European Platform ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Seismic Array ◽  
Small Aperture ◽  
Seismic Stations ◽  
East European

The analysis of the location of the epicenters of earthquakes that occurred in the central and northern part of the East European platform in 2009-2016, recorded by the seismic stations of the GS RAS and the small aperture seismic array of IGD RAS Mikhnevo was performed. The results obtained indirectly indicate the seismic activity of the Riphean structures of the region, disturbing the surface of the basement, and their possible activation at the present time. Available data on historical earthquakes also confirm their relevance to paleorifts. It seems important to take into account the position of the ancient aulacogens in assessing the seismic hazard of the East European platform.

scholarly journals Integrating faults and past earthquakes into a probabilistic seismic hazard model for peninsular Italy

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 2017-2039 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Valentini ◽  
Francesco Visini ◽  
Bruno Pace
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Gaussian Model ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Earthquake Sources ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Italy is one of the most seismically active countries in Europe. Moderate to strong earthquakes, with magnitudes of up to ∼ 7, have been historically recorded for many active faults. Currently, probabilistic seismic hazard assessments in Italy are mainly based on area source models, in which seismicity is modelled using a number of seismotectonic zones and the occurrence of earthquakes is assumed uniform. However, in the past decade, efforts have increasingly been directed towards using fault sources in seismic hazard models to obtain more detailed and potentially more realistic patterns of ground motion. In our model, we used two categories of earthquake sources. The first involves active faults, and using geological slip rates to quantify the seismic activity rate. We produced an inventory of all fault sources with details of their geometric, kinematic, and energetic properties. The associated parameters were used to compute the total seismic moment rate of each fault. We evaluated the magnitude–frequency distribution (MFD) of each fault source using two models: a characteristic Gaussian model centred at the maximum magnitude and a truncated Gutenberg–Richter model. The second earthquake source category involves grid-point seismicity, with a fixed-radius smoothed approach and a historical catalogue were used to evaluate seismic activity. Under the assumption that deformation is concentrated along faults, we combined the MFD derived from the geometry and slip rates of active faults with the MFD from the spatially smoothed earthquake sources and assumed that the smoothed seismic activity in the vicinity of an active fault gradually decreases by a fault-size-driven factor. Additionally, we computed horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. Although the ranges and gross spatial distributions of the expected accelerations obtained here are comparable to those obtained through methods involving seismic catalogues and classical zonation models, the spatial pattern of the hazard maps obtained with our model is far more detailed. Our model is characterized by areas that are more hazardous and that correspond to mapped active faults, while previous models yield expected accelerations that are almost uniformly distributed across large regions. In addition, we conducted sensitivity tests to determine the impact on the hazard results of the earthquake rates derived from two MFD models for faults and to determine the relative contributions of faults versus distributed seismic activity. We believe that our model represents advancements in terms of the input data (quantity and quality) and methodology used in the field of fault-based regional seismic hazard modelling in Italy.

Seismic Hazard Estimation in East China Offshore Areas

2013 ◽  
Vol 690-693 ◽  
pp. 1158-1167
Author(s):  
Li Fang Zhang ◽  
Yan Ju Peng ◽  
Zhen Ming Wang
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
East China ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Seismicity Model ◽  
Seismic Hazard Estimation

In this study, we chose East China offshore areas as study region(N25°~41°，E117°~126°).According to the tectonic environments and characteristics of earthquake the seismotectonic units were established, taking Gaussian spatially smoothing only based on the input earthquake catalog, and fault-rupture-oriented elliptical smoothing to calculate the seismic activity rate in each cells. The maps for the distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years were obtained through using the method of seismic hazard analysis based on cell source. While the total number of earthquakes unchanged, two-stage smoothing procedure deals with the error of epicenter location, contains the seismotectonic information in elliptical smoothing seismicity model. This method build up a simple and easy methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, especially for those place where not yet been clearly master the seismic tectonic information and with distributed Seismic activity.

scholarly journals Quantitative assessment of seismic hazard for the territory of Uzbekistan according to the estimated maximum ground oscillation rates and their spectral amplitudes

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1173-1188 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. U. Artikov ◽  
R. S. Ibragimov ◽  
T. L. Ibragimova ◽  
K. I. Kuchkarov ◽  
M. A. Mirzaev
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Energy Levels ◽  
Seismic Loads ◽  
Seismic Safety ◽  
Earthquake Resistant ◽  
Near Zone ◽  
Quantitative Characteristics ◽  
Spectral Velocity

In the territory of Uzbekistan, seismic activity is high, and ensuring seismic safety of the population is among the most important problems for the country. Our study was focused on discovering relationships between the attenuation of the ground oscillation rates, their spectral amplitudes and the distances to the epicentres of the earthquakes of different energy levels, which took place in the region under study. An objective was to quantitatively assess the seismic hazard of the study area. We analyzed the velocity graphs of M 3.8–6.2 earthquakes that occurred in Uzbekistan and the neighbouring territories, and the recorded earthquake spectrum data. For the region under study, it is established that the attenuation of the ground oscillation rates and their spectral amplitudes depend on the distances. Taking into account the sizes of crustal earthquake foci, the spectra of ground oscillation rates were calculated for the near zone. Based on the established regional dependencies, the maximum ground oscillation rates and spectral velocity amplitudes were estimated, and seismic hazard probability for the territory of Uzbekistan was assessed. For several towns and cities of Uzbekistan, the highest predictable spectral amplitudes were determined, which, under given probability P, will not be exceeded within the coming 50 years. The quantitative characteristics of seismic hazard can be converted to the indicators of seismic activity impacts, as required for calculating the seismic loads in earthquake-resistant engineering and construction projects.

scholarly journals A decade of seismicity in metropolitan France (2010-2019): the CEA/LDG methodologies and observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Duverger ◽  
Gilles Mazet-Roux ◽  
Laurent Bollinger ◽  
Aurélie Guilhem Trilla ◽  
Amaury Vallage ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Atomic Energy Commission ◽  
Temporal Structure ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Moderate Earthquake ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Epicentral Intensity ◽  
Natural Earthquakes

We summarize ten years of the French seismicity recorded by the Geophysical and Detection Laboratory (LDG) of the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) network from 2010 to 2019. During this period, 25,279 natural earthquakes were detected by the LDG and located within metropolitan France and its immediate vicinity. This seismicity contributes to more than 47% of the natural earthquakes instrumentally recorded since 1962 (mainly due to the improvement of network capacity), and includes about 28% of the most significant earthquakes with a magnitude ML ≥ 4.0. Recent seismic events therefore significantly expand the available national catalogues. The spatial distribution of 2010-2019 earthquakes is broadly similar to the previous instrumental pattern of the seismicity, with most of the seismic activity concentrated in the French Alps, the Pyrenees, the Brittany, the upper Rhine Graben and the Central Massif. A large part of the seismic activity is related to the occurrence of individual events. The largest earthquakes of the last ten years include the November 11, 2019 Le Teil earthquake with ML 5.4 and maximal epicentral intensities VII to VIII, which occurred in the Rhone valley; the April 28, 2016 La Rochelle earthquake with ML 5.2 and epicentral intensity V, which occurred at the southernmost extremity of the Armorican Massif in the vicinity of the Oléron island; and the April 7, 2014 Barcelonnette earthquake with ML 5.1 and epicentral intensity VII, which occurred in the Ubaye valley in the Alps. In 2019, two other moderate earthquakes of ML 5.1 and ML 4.9 stroke the western part of France, in Charente-Maritime and Maine-et-Loire department, respectively. The recent moderate earthquake occurrences and the large number of small earthquakes recorded give both the potential to revise some regional historical events and to determine more robust frequency-magnitude distributions, which are critical for seismic hazard assessment but complex due to low seismicity rates in France. The LDG seismic network installed since the early 1960s also allows a better characterization of the temporal structure of seismicity, partly diffused and in the form of mainshock-aftershocks sequences or transient swarms. These aspects are important in order to lower the uncertainties associated to seismogenic sources and improve the models in seismic hazard assessment for metropolitan France.

scholarly journals Note on seismic hazard assessment using gradient of uplift velocities in the Turan block (Central Asia)

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Jaboyedoff ◽  
M.-H. Derron ◽  
G. M. Manby
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Upper Crust ◽  
Rheologic Property ◽  
Hazard Zone ◽  
Highly Strained

Abstract. Uplift gradients can provide the location of highly strained zones, which can be considered to be seismic. The Turan block (Central Asia) contains zones with high gradient of uplift velocities, above the threshold 0.04mm km-1year-1. Some of these zones are associated with important seismic activity and others are not correlated with any recent important recorded earthquakes, however, recent faults scarps as well as diverted rivers may indicate a recent tectonic activity. This threshold of gradient is probably a significant rheologic property of the upper crust. On the basis of these considerations the Uzboy river area is proposed as a potential high seismic hazard zone.

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