Advances, Limitations, and Synergies in Predicting Changes in Species’ Distribution and Abundance under Contemporary Climate Change

2011 ◽  
pp. 67-84
Author(s):  
Enrique Martínez-Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Contemporary Climate

scholarly journals MaxEnt Modeling Based on CMIP6 Models to Project Potential Suitable Zones for Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 752
Author(s):  
Yichen Zhou ◽  
Zengxin Zhang ◽  
Bin Zhu ◽  
Xuefei Cheng ◽  
Liu Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Cunninghamia Lanceolata ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Timber Species ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Area

Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. (Chinese fir) is one of the main timber species in Southern China, which has a wide planting range that accounts for 25% of the overall afforested area. Moreover, it plays a critical role in soil and water conservation; however, its suitability is subject to climate change. For this study, the appropriate distribution area of C. lanceolata was analyzed using the MaxEnt model based on CMIP6 data, spanning 2041–2060. The results revealed that (1) the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), and the mean diurnal range (bio2) were the most important environmental variables that affected the distribution of C. lanceolata; (2) the currently suitable areas of C. lanceolata were primarily distributed along the southern coastal areas of China, of which 55% were moderately so, while only 18% were highly suitable; (3) the projected suitable area of C. lanceolata would likely expand based on the BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, and MRI-ESM2-0 under different SSPs spanning 2041–2060. The increased area estimated for the future ranged from 0.18 to 0.29 million km2, where the total suitable area of C. lanceolata attained a maximum value of 2.50 million km2 under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, with a lowest value of 2.39 million km2 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (4) in combination with land use and farmland protection policies of China, it is estimated that more than 60% of suitable land area could be utilized for C. lanceolata planting from 2041–2060 under different SSP scenarios. Although climate change is having an increasing influence on species distribution, the deleterious impacts of anthropogenic activities cannot be ignored. In the future, further attention should be paid to the investigation of species distribution under the combined impacts of climate change and human activities.

Combining conservation status and species distribution models for planning assisted colonisation under climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Casazza ◽  
Thomas Abeli ◽  
Gianluigi Bacchetta ◽  
Davide Dagnino ◽  
Giuseppe Fenu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Distribution Models

scholarly journals Using species distribution modelling to determine opportunities for trophic rewilding under future scenarios of climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1761) ◽  
pp. 20170446 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Jarvie ◽  
Jens-Christian Svenning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
First Century ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Modelling ◽  
Major Barrier ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Biodiversity And Ecosystem Function

Trophic rewilding, the (re)introduction of species to promote self-regulating biodiverse ecosystems, is a future-oriented approach to ecological restoration. In the twenty-first century and beyond, human-mediated climate change looms as a major threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. A critical aspect in planning trophic rewilding projects is the selection of suitable sites that match the needs of the focal species under both current and future climates. Species distribution models (SDMs) are currently the main tools to derive spatially explicit predictions of environmental suitability for species, but the extent of their adoption for trophic rewilding projects has been limited. Here, we provide an overview of applications of SDMs to trophic rewilding projects, outline methodological choices and issues, and provide a synthesis and outlook. We then predict the potential distribution of 17 large-bodied taxa proposed as trophic rewilding candidates and which represent different continents and habitats. We identified widespread climatic suitability for these species in the discussed (re)introduction regions under current climates. Climatic conditions generally remain suitable in the future, although some species will experience reduced suitability in parts of these regions. We conclude that climate change is not a major barrier to trophic rewilding as currently discussed in the literature.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change’.

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