Natural hazards and protection measures A simple model to simulate the full-scale behaviour of falling rock protection barriers

2010 ◽  
pp. 1271-1276
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Protection Measures

scholarly journals How to value protection from natural hazards – a step-by-step discrete choice approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 913-922 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Olschewski
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Choice Experiment ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Efficient Solutions ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
The People ◽  
Technical Measures ◽  
Choice Approach

Abstract. In mountainous regions, forests play a crucial role in protecting the local population from natural hazards. In cases where existing forests are destroyed, e.g. by wind throws or diseases, the protection function has to be restored through technical measures. To determine the willingness to pay (WTP) for protection against avalanches, a choice experiment has been conducted and different experiment specifications have been tested to determine possible impacts on the results. The present study contributes to a comprehensive assessment of protection measures, and helps to identify efficient solutions based on the judgement of the people potentially endangered by natural hazards. The stepwise approach has the advantage to gradually check data fit, thereby didactically showing an operational way of dealing with different model specifications. The detailed case study can serve as a manual for conducting choice experiments with a similar focus and demonstrates the suitability and caveats of this approach to value protection from natural hazards in general.

Building Industry Resilience to Compound Events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo Winter ◽  
Alois Tilloy ◽  
Alistair Hendry ◽  
Amelie joly-Laugel
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Coming Out ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
British Geological Survey ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
Compound Events

<p><strong>Key Words</strong>: Compound events; Multi-hazards; Industry application; Multivariate extreme value theory.</p><p>Abstract:</p><p>Resilience of pre-existing and new-build infrastructure to natural hazards is of key interest for many different industries (e.g. energy, water, transport). In most situations, studies analyzing the risk posed by single natural hazards have already been undertaken and relevant protection measures have been implemented. However, when considering the potential impacts of compound events or multi-hazards there can be less confidence in which combinations need to be considered and how to estimate the risks associated to these multi-hazard scenarios. Certain industries (e.g. nuclear) have already undertaken several projects on the occurrence and risks posed by multi-hazards (e.g. ASAMPSA-E, NARSIS), whereas other industries are still trying to understand their risks and which questions need to be posed.</p><p> </p><p>The EDF Energy R&D UK Centre are part of an industry scheme funded by NERC called the Environmental Risks for Infrastructure Innovation Programme (ERIIP) which aims to connect academics to industrial organisations and undertake translational research. One of the key topics of further research identified by this group is the topic of compound events and multi-hazards. A recent review of knowledge on multi-hazards was undertaken by the British Geological Survey (BGS) which highlighted the state of knowledge across UK infrastructure owners.</p><p> </p><p>This presentation will start by summarizing this review to pull out some key themes for future research in this area. Then, two different ongoing research projects will be outlined which look to address the key themes coming out of the review. One project is attempting to better understand the different multivariate statistical methods that are available for assessing the probability of multi-hazards. The application of the different models outlined in this work will be shown on an example of extreme precipitation and wind speed. The other project aims to better understand the overarching meteorological conditions that can lead to compound flooding at coastal sites around the UK. This focuses less on estimating joint probabilities, but more on producing clear visualisations for end-users.  </p>

scholarly journals A Brief Theory of Epidemic Kinetics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francois Louchet
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Immunological Response ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
Contact Duration ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Contagious Diseases ◽  
Exponential Increase ◽  
Exposed Population ◽  
Stable Attractor ◽  
Viral Respiratory

In the context of the COVID-19 epidemic, and on the basis of the Theory of Dynamical Systems, we propose a simple model for the expansion of contagious diseases, with a particular focus on viral respiratory tracts. The infection develops through contacts between contagious and exposed people, with a rate proportional to contact duration and turnover, inversely proportional to the efficiency of protection measures, and balanced by the average immunological response. The obvious initial exponential increase is readily hindered by the size reduction of the exposed population. The system converges towards a stable attractor whose value is expressed in terms of the ratio C/D of contamination vs decay factors. Decreasing this ratio below a critical value leads to a tipping point beyond which the epidemic is over. By contrast, significant values of C/D may bring the system through a bifurcating hierarchy of stable cycles up to a chaotic behaviour.

Nature-based solutions must be realized - not just proclaimed - in face of climatic extremes

Erdkunde ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl Beierkuhnlein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Broad Spectrum ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Spatial Uncertainty ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
The Future

Natural hazards resulting from climate change are increasing in frequency and intensity. As this is not a linear trend but rather by singularities and anomalies including a broad spectrum of climatic and weather extremes with high temporal and spatial uncertainty, focused avoidance strategies are difficult to prepare. However, the effects of climate change are mostly addressed with outdated ‘business as usual’ approaches by governments and most stakeholders, which are unfit to tackle the complexity of current challenges. Coping action for natural hazards is mostly undertaken during and after such events compensating damage through payments and restoration. In the future, pro-active nature-based solutions are needed for risk mitigation and avoiding severe damage through enhancing all facets of biodiversity from species richness, structural roughness, to spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems. This will not avoid extreme weather events, but it will reduce the damage of increasingly appearing natural hazards. However, this strategy cannot be implemented all of a sudden. Long-term and spatial concepts are needed. For this purpose, currently missing governance structures based on geographical, geoscientific, ecological, meteorological, and societal expertise should be installed. In recent years, a good scientific and knowledge basis for the required solutions has been developed, which now must translate into action. Here, a series of suggestions is compiled for a broad spectrum of extreme events and societal fields, which is far from being complete but should stimulate critically needed creativity and commitment. Nature-based solutions will not deliver a complete protection and cannot be the only kind of action, but we can no longer rely on post-disaster compensation or on the safety illusion of mere engineering and construction works. The efficiency of biodiversity as an insurance for maintaining ecosystem services is well understood. The implementation of nature-based adaptation, coping, and protection measures is less expensive than traditional end-of-the-pipe constructions. It requires an in-depth understanding of interacting processes and trans-disciplinary cooperation based on a broad acceptance in the public. Investments into these solutions would pay off, not tomorrow, but in the future. It is the best sustainable and feasible approach for disaster prevention.

scholarly journals Apple Sunburn Risk Detection—A Simple Model for Agricultural Decision Making and Some Fruit Temperature Measurements

2021 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-36
Author(s):  
Klaus-Peter Wittich
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Northern Germany ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
South Side ◽  
Skin Temperatures

AbstractAs a response to strong radiative heating, the fruit temperature of apples may rise significantly above the air temperature. This may result in damage to the skin tissue and the epidermal and hypodermal cell layers. To avoid economic losses induced by sunburn symptoms on the skin, apple growers need forecasts of the fruit temperature, which will allow them to organize sun-protection measures in time.The temperatures of detached apples, which had been exposed to incident radiation and wind, were measured in order to quantify the extent of fruit heating under the climate conditions of northern Germany. On average, the daily maximum skin temperatures measured on the sunlit south side of the fruit during selected sunny and warm days were about 7 °C above the daily maximum air temperature. However, skin temperatures of more than 40 °C (the predefined warning threshold) were rarely detected, indicating that sunburn is still an uncommon phenomenon in northern Germany. Maximum apple-core temperatures were on average 4 °C higher than the maximum temperatures of ambient air.Based on energy balance principles, a simple model has been developed to predict the diurnal cycle of the sky- and ground-facing hemispherical apple temperatures. Focusing on fruit growers’ needs, daily temperature maxima of the modeled sky-facing hemisphere were compared with skin temperatures measured on the sunlit south side, resulting in a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.7 °C. Comparison between daily maxima of total sphere temperatures and apple core temperatures provided better correlations (MAE = 0.8 °C).

Wirkung von Schutzwald gegen gravitative Naturgefahren – Protect-Bio

2014 ◽  
Vol 165 (9) ◽  
pp. 275-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berchthold Wasser ◽  
Bernhard Perren
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Rapid Assessment ◽  
Protective Effects ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Open Questions ◽  
Medium Level ◽  
Biological Protection ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
Protection Forests ◽  
Technical Measures

Effect of protection forests on natural hazards due to gravity: Protect-Bio The “Protect-Bio” project of the Federal Environment Agency aims to appraise the effects of biological protection measures, notably protection forests, in such a way that they can be compared to the effects of technical protection measures with the same objectives. A methodology has been developed in the context of the “Protect” project of the National Platform for Natural Hazards (PLANAT) to assess technical measures, which has several stages: preparation, rapid assessment, evaluation of measures, evaluation of effects. This article shows how the methodology for technical measures can be adapted to protection forests. It appears that the principles of the “Protect” project which must be used to evaluate technical protection measures can be applied to biological protection measures. Protect-Bio widens the framework of the danger assessment (danger map) to risk analysis in general. For most danger processes, procedures can be developed for rapid assessment as well as evaluation of measures and effects. Open questions remain concerning evaluation of effects of protection forests with regard to deep and medium level landslides and flooding. It is hoped that in future the protective effects of forests can be taken into consideration in an appropriate and balanced way when assessing dangers and risks.

scholarly journals Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 603-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gruber
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Insurance Markets ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
The Public ◽  
Damage Compensation ◽  
The One

Abstract. The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

Calculating the Sensitivity of a Salmonid Population Model

1986 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 863-868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey T. Evans ◽  
J. Brian Dempson
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Computer Simulations ◽  
Population Model ◽  
Theoretical Calculations ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Habitat Protection ◽  
Actual Parameter ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Parameter Values

We present a simple model of salmonid life history, and calculate the sensitivity of its outputs to its parameters. Theoretical calculations are preferred to computer simulations. There are some parameters for which the sign of the sensitivity is independent of the actual parameter values. In an uncertain world, management actions aimed at altering such parameters are safer than other actions. For example, habitat protection measures are more certain to have the desired effect than are changes in fishery regulations.

scholarly journals Beyond the Expected—Residual Risk and Cases of Overload in the Context of Managing Alpine Natural Hazards

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sönke Hartmann ◽  
Lydia Pedoth ◽  
Cristina Dalla Torre ◽  
Stefan Schneiderbauer
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Residual Risk ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Risk Governance ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
The Status ◽  
Protection Goals ◽  
Protection Goal

AbstractStructural protection measures are designed to protect the population and infrastructure against natural hazards up to a specific predefined protection goal. Extreme events with intensities that exceed the capacity of these protection structures are called “cases of overload” and are associated with “residual risks” that remain after the implementation of protection measures. In order to address residual risks and to reduce the damages from overload events, a combination of structural protection measures with additional, nonstructural measures is required. Based on data collected through a literature review, a questionnaire survey, expert interviews, and an expert workshop we highlight the status quo as well as key challenges of dealing with residual risks and cases of overload in Alpine countries in the context of geohydrological hazards and gravitational mass movements. We present a holistic conceptual framework that describes the relationships of residual risks, cases of overload, and protection goals in the context of both risk governance and integrated risk management. This framework is valuable for decision makers aiming at an improved management of natural hazards that takes adequate account of residual risk and cases of overload in Alpine countries and mountain areas worldwide.

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