Earthquake Damage Estimations: ShakeCast Case Study on Nevada Bridges

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Glenn Biasi ◽  
Mohammed Saeed Mohammed ◽  
David H. Sanders
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Graphical Method ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Department Of Transportation ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Hazard Curves ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map ◽  
Large Earthquakes

This case study evaluates the vulnerability of Nevada bridges relative to earthquake hazard using two different methods. First, a distributed set of 112 realistic earthquake scenarios were processed with USGS program ShakeMap, and site-specific ground motion levels extracted for 1831 bridges in Nevada using ShakeCast. Second, using hazard curves underlying the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Map (NSHM), return periods for earthquakes causing extensive damage to bridges were extracted and compared to the 1000-year design level adopted by the AASHTO. Lower capacities than those used in ShakeCast were proposed for five continuous bridge types based on a literature review. Scenarios provide points in a deterministic seismic hazard approach, with large earthquakes on known faults. NSHM hazard curves are based on a probabilistic approach. A graphical method is presented to unite the two approaches. A list of potentially vulnerable bridges was developed for Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT) use in bridge retrofit planning. As a continuing benefit, ShakeCast now operates in Nevada to provide near-real-time inspection priorities in the event of a serious earthquake.

Simulation-Based Seismic Hazard Assessment Using Monte-Carlo Earthquake Catalogs: Application to CyberShake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Azar ◽  
Mayssa Dabaghi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Earthquake Catalogs ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Hazard Curves

ABSTRACT The use of numerical simulations in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has achieved a promising level of reliability in recent years. One example is the CyberShake project, which incorporates physics-based 3D ground-motion simulations within seismic hazard calculations. Nonetheless, considerable computational time and resources are required due to the significant processing requirements imposed by source-based models on one hand, and the large number of seismic sources and possible rupture variations on the other. This article proposes to use a less computationally demanding simulation-based PSHA framework for CyberShake. The framework can accurately represent the seismic hazard at a site, by only considering a subset of all the possible earthquake scenarios, based on a Monte-Carlo simulation procedure that generates earthquake catalogs having a specified duration. In this case, ground motions need only be simulated for the scenarios selected in the earthquake catalog, and hazard calculations are limited to this subset of scenarios. To validate the method and evaluate its accuracy in the CyberShake platform, the proposed framework is applied to three sites in southern California, and hazard calculations are performed for earthquake catalogs with different lengths. The resulting hazard curves are then benchmarked against those obtained by considering the entire set of earthquake scenarios and simulations, as done in CyberShake. Both approaches yield similar estimates of the hazard curves for elastic pseudospectral accelerations and inelastic demands, with errors that depend on the length of the Monte-Carlo catalog. With 200,000 yr catalogs, the errors are consistently smaller than 5% at the 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr hazard level, using only ∼3% of the entire set of simulations. Both approaches also produce similar disaggregation patterns. The results demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach in a simulation-based PSHA platform like CyberShake and as a ground-motion selection tool for seismic demand analyses.

scholarly journals A probabilistic approach for earthquake hazard assessment of the Province of Eskişehir, Turkey

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 607-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Orhan ◽  
E. Seyrek ◽  
H. Tosun
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
City Center ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Western Turkey ◽  
Seismic Hazard Maps ◽  
Earthquake Hazard Assessment ◽  
The City

Abstract. The city of Eskişehir in inner-western Turkey has experienced a destructive earthquake with Ms=6.4 in 1956 in addition to many events with magnitudes greater than 5. It is located in a wide basin having young sedimentary units and thick alluvium soils which also include liquefiable sand materials. There is also an active fault passing beneath the city center and the groundwater level is very close to the ground surface. Approximately 600 thousand people are living in the province of Eskişehir. Therefore, the city and its vicinity have a high risk, when earthquake hazard is considered. This paper summarizes the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which was performed for the province of Eskişehir and introduces seismic hazard maps produced by considering earthquakes with magnitude Ms≥4.0 occurred during the last 100-years and a seismic model composed of four seismic sources. The results of PSHA show that the average peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the city center is 0.40 g for 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, for rock site. The seismic hazard maps were obtained by means of a program of Geographic Information System.

scholarly journals Seismic hazard assessment in the Ibero-Maghreb region

1999 ◽  
Vol 42 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Jiménez ◽  
M. García-Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Common Procedure ◽  
Fruitful Cooperation ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map ◽  
First Time ◽  
Regional Earthquake

The contribution of the Ibero-Maghreb region to the global GSHAP map has been the result of a fruitful cooperation among the participants in the established Working Group including representatives from Algeria, Morocco, Portugal, Spain and Tunisia and coordinated by ICTJA-CSIC, Spain. For the first time, a map of regional seismic source zones is presented, and agreement on a common procedure for hazard computation in the region has been achieved. The computed Ibero-Maghreb seismic hazard map constitutes the first step towards a uniform hazard assessment for the region. Further joint regional efforts are still needed for earthquake hazard studies based on a homogeneous regional earthquake catalogue. Ongoing initiatives in relation to seismic hazard assessment in the Mediterranean should profit both from these results and the established cooperation among different groups in the region as well as contribute to future regional studies.

scholarly journals Estimation of the seismic hazard parameters for various sites in Greece using a probabilistic approach

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 399-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. D. Banitsiotou ◽  
T. M. Tsapanos ◽  
V. N. Margaris ◽  
P. M. Hatzidimitriou
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Earthquake Catalogues ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Hazard Parameters ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map ◽  
Of Greece

Abstract. The probabilistic approach that was recently introduced by Kijko and Graham (1998,1999) was applied for the estimation of seismic hazard for various sites in Greece in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV). These sites represent geographically cities of Greece among which are the capital of Greece and some others with high, intermediate and low seismicity. The approach allows the use of earthquake catalogues with incomplete reported historical and complete instrumental data, the consideration of different magnitude thresholds, and the incorporation of magnitude uncertainties. One of the advantages of the method is that it does not require any determination of seismic zones. The estimated values of PGA for return periods of 476 years were grouped in 4 categories, the same ones used in the seismic hazard map for the New Seismic Code of Greece. Comparison results were quite interesting and very encouraging concerning the reliability of this probabilistic approach.

Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Anticipating the Earthquake Hazard from Lembang Fault: A Case Study of Bandung Institute of Technology, West Java, Indonesia

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 803-809
Author(s):  
Farica Edgina Yosafat ◽  
◽  
Arif Rohman ◽  
Didik Wahju Widjaja ◽  
Irwan Meilano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Capacity Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Hazards ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Medium Level ◽  
Capacity Index ◽  
Institute Of Technology ◽  
And Gender

Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) campus is located in Bandung and has seismic hazard from active Lembang fault. In this study, one aspect of vulnerability of the campus was evaluated. It appears that in the campus there are enough spaces for evacuation during the emergency time. To determine the capacity of ITB members to face earthquakes, a survey was conducted and the result was analyzed. Generally, ITB members have medium level of awareness but very low level of preparedness. The capacity index of the ITB members is 0.39 of scale 1, which indicates that the level of ITB members’ capacity to deal with earthquake hazards is still low. The indexes were also analyzed based on faculty, occupation, and gender.

scholarly journals A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Greece and the surrounding region including site-specific considerations

2009 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. M. Tsapanos ◽  
P. Mäntyniemi ◽  
A. Kijko
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Region Of Interest ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Design Earthquake ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map

A probabilistic approach was applied to map the seismic hazard in Greece and the surrounding region. The procedure does not require any specification of seismic sources or/and seismic zones and allows for the use of the whole seismological record, comprising both historical and instrumental data, available for the region of interest. The new seismic hazard map prepared for Greece and its vicinity specifies a 10% probability of exceedance of the given Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values for shallow seismicity and intermediate soil conditions for an exposure time of 50 years. When preparing the map, the new PGA attenuation relation given by Margaris et al. (2001) was employed. The new map shows a spatial distribution of the seismic hazard that corresponds well with the features of shallow seismicity within the examined region. It depicts the level of seismic hazard in which the exceedance of the PGA value of 0.25 g may be expected to occur within limited areas. The highest estimated levels of seismic hazard inside the territory of Greece are found in the Northern Sporades Islands, where PGA values in excess of 0.50 g are reached at individual sites, and in the Zante Island in Western Greece, where PGA values in the range of 0.35 g to 0.40 g are obtained at more numerous localities. High values are also observed in the sea between the Karpathos and Rhodes islands, near the Island of Amorgos (Cyclades Archipelago) and in the Southwestern Peloponnesus. The levels of seismic hazard at the sites of seven Greek cities (Athens, Jannena, Kalamata, Kozani, Larisa, Rhodes and Thessaloniki) were also estimated in terms of probabilities that a given PGA value will be exceeded at least once during a time interval of 1, 50 and 100 years at those sites. These probabilities were based on the maximum horizontal PGA values obtained by applying the design earthquake procedure, and the respective median values obtained were 0.24 g for Athens, 0.28 g for Jannena, 0.30 g for Kalamata, 0.21 g for Kozani, 0.24 g for Larisa, 0.43 g for Rhodes and 0.35 g for Thessaloniki. The probabilities of exceedance of the estimated maximum possible PGA value were also calculated for the cities to illustrate the uncertainty of maximum PGA assessment.

Simulation-Based Seismic Hazard Assessment Using Monte-Carlo Earthquake Catalogs: Application to CyberShake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Azar ◽  
Mayssa Dabaghi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Earthquake Catalogs ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Hazard Curves

ABSTRACT The use of numerical simulations in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has achieved a promising level of reliability in recent years. One example is the CyberShake project, which incorporates physics-based 3D ground-motion simulations within seismic hazard calculations. Nonetheless, considerable computational time and resources are required due to the significant processing requirements imposed by source-based models on one hand, and the large number of seismic sources and possible rupture variations on the other. This article proposes to use a less computationally demanding simulation-based PSHA framework for CyberShake. The framework can accurately represent the seismic hazard at a site, by only considering a subset of all the possible earthquake scenarios, based on a Monte-Carlo simulation procedure that generates earthquake catalogs having a specified duration. In this case, ground motions need only be simulated for the scenarios selected in the earthquake catalog, and hazard calculations are limited to this subset of scenarios. To validate the method and evaluate its accuracy in the CyberShake platform, the proposed framework is applied to three sites in southern California, and hazard calculations are performed for earthquake catalogs with different lengths. The resulting hazard curves are then benchmarked against those obtained by considering the entire set of earthquake scenarios and simulations, as done in CyberShake. Both approaches yield similar estimates of the hazard curves for elastic pseudospectral accelerations and inelastic demands, with errors that depend on the length of the Monte-Carlo catalog. With 200,000 yr catalogs, the errors are consistently smaller than 5% at the 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr hazard level, using only ∼3% of the entire set of simulations. Both approaches also produce similar disaggregation patterns. The results demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach in a simulation-based PSHA platform like CyberShake and as a ground-motion selection tool for seismic demand analyses.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Kermanshah-Sanandaj Region of Western Iran

2007 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elham Shabani ◽  
Noorbakhsh Mirzaei
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Eleventh Century ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Western Iran

Seismic hazard assessment and zoning of the Kermanshah-Sanandaj region in western Iran is conducted using probabilistic approach. Two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of the region in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display a probabilistic estimate of peak ground acceleration (PGA) over bedrock for the return periods of 475 and 50 years. A uniform catalog of earthquakes containing historical and instrumental events covering the period from the eleventh century A.D. to 2003 is used. Twelve potential seismic sources are modeled as area sources in the region. Seismicity parameters are evaluated using the method in which magnitude uncertainty and incompleteness of earthquake data are considered. Seismic hazard assessment is carried out for a grid of 357 points with 0.1° intervals using the SEISRISKIII computer program for the study area encompassed by the 46–48° E longitudes and 34–36° N latitudes. This region includes the most active segments of the Zagros Main Recent Fault; among them, the Sahneh and Nahavand faults have a well-known history of intense seismic activity. PGA values for this region are estimated to be 0.35 g and 0.20 g for 475- and 50-years return periods, respectively.

Seismic Hazard Map for Papua Island

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Lalu Makrup ◽  
Arif Hariyanto ◽  
Setya Winarno
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Map ◽  
Seismic Hazard Map
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