High resolution seismic hazard analysis in a complex geological configuration: the case of Sulmona (Central Italy) basin

2013 ◽  
pp. 141208072728004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela Villani ◽  
Ezio Faccioli ◽  
Mario Ordaz ◽  
Marco Stupazzini
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis

High-Resolution Seismic Hazard Analysis in a Complex Geological Configuration: The Case of the Sulmona Basin in Central Italy

2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1801-1824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela Villani ◽  
Ezio Faccioli ◽  
Mario Ordaz ◽  
Marco Stupazzini
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Spectral Element ◽  
Seismic Wave Propagation ◽  
Novel Approach

This work proposes a novel approach for probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) in the near field of active earthquake faults, in which deterministically computed ground motion scenarios, replacing empirically predicted ground motion values, are introduced. In fact, the databases of most ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) tend to be insufficiently constrained at short distances and data may only partially account for the rupture process, seismic wave propagation and three-dimensional (3-D) complex configurations. Hence, herein, 3-D numerical simulations of a Mw = 6.4 earthquake rupture of the Sulmona fault in Central Italy, are carried out through the spectral element code GeoELSE ( f < 2.5 Hz), and the results are introduced in a PSHA, exploiting the capabilities of CRISIS2008 code. The SH results obtained highlight the combined effects of site, basin, and topographic features, and provide a “high-resolution” representation of the hazard in the Sulmona Basin, particularly at long periods. Such representation is expected to be more realistic than those based simply on a GMPE.

Generalized Earthquake Counting Processes for Sequence‐Based Hazard

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (4) ◽  
pp. 1435-1450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iunio Iervolino
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Poisson Processes ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Counting Processes ◽  
Aftershock Sequences

Abstract Sequence‐based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (SPSHA) allows us to account for the effect of aftershocks in the assessment of seismic structural‐design actions (Iervolino et al., 2014, 2018). In fact, it generalizes classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA; Cornell, 1968), combining it with aftershock‐PSHA (Yeo and Cornell, 2009). SPSHA associates in time aftershocks to mainshocks and, therefore, retains a desirable property of classical PSHA; that is, events (earthquakes in PSHA and mainshock–aftershock sequences in SPSHA) occur according to homogeneous Poisson processes (HPPs). Nevertheless, the number of earthquakes in SPSHA is not Poisson‐distributed. This is addressed herein, in which the probability distribution is formulated and discussed for the following random variables: (1) the count of all earthquakes pertaining to sequences originating in any time interval; (2) the count of all earthquakes occurring in any time interval; (3) the count of all earthquakes that cause exceedance of an arbitrary ground‐motion intensity threshold at the site of interest, generated by sequences originating in any time interval. An application referring to central Italy is also developed to help the discussion. The three main findings are that: (1) the formulated SPSHA counting processes further generalize PSHA; that is, they degenerate in the corresponding mainshock HPPs, if aftershocks are neglected; (2) to associate the aftershocks to the corresponding mainshocks in time is fit for hazard assessment purposes; and (3) the variance‐to‐mean ratio of the counting distributions is significantly larger than one; consequently, the occurrence processes cannot be approximated by Poisson processes. These results, which complete the SPSHA framework, can be a reference for model calibration exercises when SPSHA is computed via simulation and in those cases in which the probability of an exact number of exceedances is of interest, rather than that of observing at least one exceedance (e.g., for seismic damage accumulation studies).

PEMETAAN DAERAH RENTAN GEMPA BUMI SEBAGAI DASAR PERENCANAAN TATA RUANG DAN WILAYAH DI PROVINSI SULAWESI BARAT

KURVATEK ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-47
Author(s):  
Marinda noor Eva
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Penelitian mengenai daerah rawan gempa bumi ini menggunakan Metode Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat, dengan tujuan untuk memetakan tingkat kerawanan bahaya gempa bumi di Kabupaten Mamasa. Penelitian ini menggunakan data kejadian gempa bumi di Pulau Sulawesi dan sekitarnya dari tahun 1900 – 2015. Hasil pengolahan PSHA menggunakan Software Ez-Frisk 7.52 yang menghasilkan nilai hazard di batuan dasar pada kondisi PGA (T = 0,0 sekon), dengan periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun berkisar antara (149,54 – 439,45) gal dan (287,18 – 762,81) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 0,2 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun adalah (307,04 – 1010,90) gal dan (569,48 – 1849,78) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 1,0 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun diperoleh nilai (118,01 – 265,75) gal dan (223,74 – 510,92) gal. Berdasarkan analisis PSHA, nilai PGA di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat dominan dipengaruhi oleh sumber gempa sesar.

PSHA software review based on the Monte Carlo method

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-24
Author(s):  
V.A. Mironov ◽  
S.A. Peretokin ◽  
K.V. Simonov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Software Review ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Test Calculation ◽  
Seismic Surveys ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article is a continuation of the software research to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) as one of the main stages in engineering seismic surveys. The article provides an overview of modern software for PSHA based on the Monte Carlo method, describes in detail the work of foreign programs OpenQuake Engine and EqHaz. A test calculation of seismic hazard was carried out to compare the functionality of domestic and foreign software.

scholarly journals A ground motion logic tree for seismic hazard analysis in the stable cratonic region of Europe: regionalisation, model selection and development of a scaled backbone approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 6119-6148
Author(s):  
Graeme Weatherill ◽  
Fabrice Cotton
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Northeastern Europe

Abstract Regions of low seismicity present a particular challenge for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis when identifying suitable ground motion models (GMMs) and quantifying their epistemic uncertainty. The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model adopts a scaled backbone approach to characterise this uncertainty for shallow seismicity in Europe, incorporating region-to-region source and attenuation variability based on European strong motion data. This approach, however, may not be suited to stable cratonic region of northeastern Europe (encompassing Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries), where exploration of various global geophysical datasets reveals that its crustal properties are distinctly different from the rest of Europe, and are instead more closely represented by those of the Central and Eastern United States. Building upon the suite of models developed by the recent NGA East project, we construct a new scaled backbone ground motion model and calibrate its corresponding epistemic uncertainties. The resulting logic tree is shown to provide comparable hazard outcomes to the epistemic uncertainty modelling strategy adopted for the Eastern United States, despite the different approaches taken. Comparison with previous GMM selections for northeastern Europe, however, highlights key differences in short period accelerations resulting from new assumptions regarding the characteristics of the reference rock and its influence on site amplification.

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