Estimation of Earthquake Losses to Buildings

1997 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 703-720 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles A. Kircher ◽  
Robert K. Reitherman ◽  
Robert V. Whitman ◽  
Christopher Arnold
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Northridge Earthquake ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Ground Failure ◽  
New Methods ◽  
Earthquake Losses ◽  
Earthquake Loss

This paper describes methods for estimating building losses that were developed for the FEMA/NIBS earthquake loss estimation methodology (Whitman et al., 1997). These methods are of a new form and represent a significant step forward in the prediction of earthquake impacts. Unlike previous building loss models that are based on Modified Mercalli Intensity, the new methods use quantitative measures of ground shaking (and ground failure) and analyze model building types in a similar manner to the engineering analysis of a single structure. Direct economic losses predicted by these new methods for typical single-family homes compare well with observed losses to Los Angeles County residences damaged by the 1994 Northridge Earthquake.

Annualized and Scenario Earthquake Loss Estimations for California

2013 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 1183-1207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Chen ◽  
David M. Branum ◽  
Chris J. Wills
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
San Francisco ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Metropolitan Statistical Area ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Scenario Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Losses ◽  
Earthquake Loss ◽  
Loss Estimations

We update annualized and scenario earthquake loss estimations for California using HAZUS, a loss estimation tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and evaluate the effects of changes in input ground motions over the last decade on estimated earthquake losses. Our estimated statewide average earthquake loss to building stock from shaking is approximately $2.8 billion per year, with 32% of it occurring in Los Angeles County and 23% in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan statistical area. This estimate reflects a 25% to 28% reduction because of changes in input ground motions. Scenario results indicate a 28% to 63% reduction in estimated building economic losses because of changes in input ground motions. Changes in input ground motions are mainly attributed to the use of next generation attenuation relations and, to a lesser extent, to updated earthquake source models and differing approaches for incorporating near-surface site effects.

Development of a National Earthquake Loss Estimation Methodology

1997 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 643-661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert V. Whitman ◽  
Thalia Anagnos ◽  
Charles A. Kircher ◽  
Henry J. Lagorio ◽  
R. Scott Lawson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Earth Science ◽  
Data Entry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Loss Estimation ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Methodology Development ◽  
Earthquake Loss ◽  
History Of ◽  
Gis Software

This paper summarizes the development of a geographic information system (GIS)-based regional loss estimation methodology for the United States funded as part of a four-and-one-half year project by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). The methodology incorporates state-of-the-art approaches for: characterizing earth science hazards, including ground shaking, liquefaction, and landsliding; estimating damage and losses to buildings and lifelines; estimating casualties, shelter requirements and economic losses; and data entry to support loss estimates. The history of the methodology development; the methodology's scope, framework, and limitations; supporting GIS software; potential user applications; and future developments are discussed.

scholarly journals Direct Economic Losses in the Northridge Earthquake: A Three-Year Post-Event Perspective

1998 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald T. Eguchi ◽  
James D. Goltz ◽  
Craig E. Taylor ◽  
Stephanie E. Chang ◽  
Paul J. Flores ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Northridge Earthquake ◽  
Full Cost ◽  
Moderate Size ◽  
Similar Information ◽  
Final Estimate ◽  
One Year ◽  
The U.S

The Northridge earthquake will long be remembered for the unprecedented losses incurred as a result of a moderate-size event in a suburban area of Los Angeles. Current documented costs indicate that this event is the costliest disaster in U.S. history. Although it is difficult to estimate the full cost of this event, it is quite possible that total losses, excluding indirect effects, could reach as much as $40 billion. This would make the Northridge earthquake less severe than the Kobe event, which occurred exactly one year after the Northridge earthquake, but adds a bit of realism that a Kobe-type disaster is possible in the U.S. This paper attempts to put into perspective the direct capital losses associated with the Northridge earthquake. In doing so, we introduce the concept of hidden and/or undocumented costs that could double current estimates. In addition, we present the notion that a final estimate of loss may be impossible to achieve, although costs do begin to level off two years after the earthquake. Finally, we attempt to reconcile apparent differences between loss totals for two databases tracking similar information.

Using safety inspection data to estimate shaking intensity for the 1994 Northridge earthquake

1998 ◽  
Vol 88 (5) ◽  
pp. 1243-1253
Author(s):  
Katharina Thywissen ◽  
John Boatwright
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Census Tract ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Intensity Level ◽  
Northridge Earthquake ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Census Tracts ◽  
Wood Frame ◽  
Inspection Data ◽  
1994 Northridge Earthquake

Abstract We map the shaking intensity suffered in Los Angeles County during the 17 January 1994, Northridge earthquake using municipal safety inspection data. The intensity is estimated from the number of buildings given red, yellow, or green tags, aggregated by census tract. Census tracts contain from 200 to 4000 residential buildings and have an average area of 6 km2 but are as small as 2 and 1 km2 in the most densely populated areas of the San Fernando Valley and downtown Los Angeles, respectively. In comparison, the zip code areas on which standard MMI intensity estimates are based are six times larger, on average, than the census tracts. We group the buildings by age (before and after 1940 and 1976), by number of housing units (one, two to four, and five or more), and by construction type, and we normalize the tags by the total number of similar buildings in each census tract. We analyze the seven most abundant building categories. The fragilities (the fraction of buildings in each category tagged within each intensity level) for these seven building categories are adjusted so that the intensity estimates agree. We calibrate the shaking intensity to correspond with the modified Mercalli intensities (MMI) estimated and compiled by Dewey et al. (1995); the shapes of the resulting isoseismals are similar, although we underestimate the extent of the MMI = 6 and 7 areas. The fragility varies significantly between different building categories (by factors of 10 to 20) and building ages (by factors of 2 to 6). The post-1940 wood-frame multi-family (≧5 units) dwellings make up the most fragile building category, and the post-1940 woodframe single-family dwellings make up the most resistant building category.

Development of Building Damage Functions for Earthquake Loss Estimation

1997 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 663-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles A. Kircher ◽  
Aladdin A. Nassar ◽  
Onder Kustu ◽  
William T. Holmes
Keyword(s):  
Model Building ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Building Damage ◽  
Loss Estimation ◽  
Loss Of Function ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Earthquake Loss Estimation ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Damage Models ◽  
Earthquake Loss

This paper describes building damage functions that were developed for the FEMA/NIBS earthquake loss estimation methodology (Whitman et al., 1997). These functions estimate the probability of discrete states of structural and nonstructural building damage that are used as inputs to the estimation of building losses, including economic loss, casualties and loss of function (Kircher et al., 1997). These functions are of a new form and represent a significant step forward in the prediction of earthquake impacts. Unlike previous building damage models that are based on Modified Mercalli Intensity, the new functions use quantitative measures of ground shaking (and ground failure) and analyze model building types in a similar manner to the engineering analysis of a single structure.

Socioeconomic Clustering in Seismic Risk Assessment of Urban Housing Stock

2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 619-641 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S.R. Prasad ◽  
Yogendra Singh ◽  
Amir M. Kaynia ◽  
Conrad Lindholm
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Sample Survey ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Urban Habitat ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment

A seismic risk assessment methodology based on socioeconomic clustering of urban habitat is presented in this paper. In this methodology, the city is divided into different housing clusters based on socioeconomic level of occupants, representing reasonably uniform seismic risk. It makes an efficient utilization of high resolution satellite data and stratified random sample survey to develop the building stock database. Ten different classes of socioeconomic clusters found in Indian cities are defined and 34 model building types (MBTs) prevalent on the Indian subcontinent have been identified and compared with the Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik (MSK) scale, European macroseismic scale (EMS), parameterless scale of seismic intensity (PSI), and HAZUS classifications. Lower and upper bound damage probability matrices (DPMs) are estimated, based on the MSK and EMS intensity scales and experience from past earthquakes in India. A case study of Dehradun, a city in the foothills of Himalayas, is presented. The risk estimates using the estimated DPMs have been compared with those obtained using the PSI scale. It has been observed that poorer people are subjected to higher seismic risk, both in terms of casualties and in terms of percent economic losses.

scholarly journals The Role of Seismological Networks in Civil Protection in Low and High Seismic Hazards

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erzsébet Győri ◽  
Arman Bulatovich Kussainov ◽  
Gyöngyvér Szanyi ◽  
Zoltán Gráczer ◽  
Kendebay Zhanabilovich Raimbekov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Civil Protection ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Seismic Networks ◽  
Strong Ground

Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters on Earth, causing sometimes huge economic losses and many human casualties. Since earthquake prediction is not yet possible, the purpose of civil protection is to reduce damage and protect human lives, in which the seismological networks of different countries play a very important role. Special applications of seismic networks are the early warning systems that can be used to protect vulnerable infrastructures using automated shutdown procedures, to stop high velocity trains and to save lives if the general public is notified about imminent strong ground shaking. In this paper, we describe the aims and operation of seismological networks, covering in more detail the early warning systems. Then we delineate the seismotectonic settings and seismicity in Hungary and Kazakhstan, furthermore, describe the operating seismological networks and the related scientific research areas with emphasis on civil protection. Hungary and Kazakhstan differ not only in the size of their territory, but also in their seismicity, therefore, in addition to the similarities, there are also significant differences between the aims and problems of their seismological networks.

Performance of lifelines during the 1994 Northridge earthquake

1995 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 438-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
David L. Lau ◽  
Alex Tang ◽  
Jean-Robert Pierre
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
System Performance ◽  
Water Distribution ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Northridge Earthquake ◽  
Epicentral Area ◽  
Lifeline Systems ◽  
Earthquake Damages ◽  
The Impact

Lifelines are essential infrastructures and facilities that are considered vital to the rescue effort and recovery of the affected community in the event of a natural disaster or emergency. The lifeline systems in a densely populated area, such as the Los Angeles basin, are very complex. The Northridge earthquake, which occurred in southern California on January 17, 1994, caused extensive damage to many of these lifeline facilities in the epicentral area. Effects of the damages were felt not only in the vicinity area of the earthquake but also in areas far from the earthquake site. This paper describes the earthquake damage to and performance of gas and water distribution and electric power and telecommunication systems. The impact of these failures on the overall system performance are presented. The significance and effect of the interdependency of life systems in an integrated urban environment are discussed. Lessons learned on system performance, seismic risk, and reliability of lifeline systems from the Canadian perspective are presented. Key words: earthquake damages, electric power, gas, lifelines, performance, risk, telecommunication, water.

THE EFFECT OF NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAKE ON LOS ANGELES WASTEWATER SYSTEM

2000 ◽  
Vol 2000 (14) ◽  
pp. 344-357
Author(s):  
J. Cuny ◽  
R. Iranpour ◽  
M. Zermeño ◽  
D. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Northridge Earthquake

Potential Losses in a Repeat of the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, Earthquake

2005 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 1157-1184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Wong ◽  
Jawhar Bouabid ◽  
William Graf ◽  
Charles Huyck ◽  
Allan Porush ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Carolina ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
The State ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Loss Assessment ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Earthquake Losses ◽  
Fire Stations

A comprehensive earthquake loss assessment for the state of South Carolina using HAZUS was performed considering four different earthquake scenarios: a moment magnitude ( M) 7.3 “1886 Charleston-like” earthquake, M 6.3 and M 5.3 events also from the Charleston seismic source, and an M 5.0 earthquake in Columbia. Primary objectives of this study were (1) to generate credible earthquake losses to provide a baseline for coordination, capability development, training, and strategic planning for the South Carolina Emergency Management Division, and (2) to raise public awareness of the significant earthquake risk in the state. Ground shaking, liquefaction, and earthquake-induced landsliding hazards were characterized using region-specific inputs on seismic source, path, and site effects, and ground motion numerical modeling. Default inventory data on buildings and facilities in HAZUS were either substantially enhanced or replaced. Losses were estimated using a high resolution 2- km×2- km grid rather than the census tract approach used in HAZUS. The results of the loss assessment indicate that a future repeat of the 1886 earthquake would be catastrophic, resulting in possibly 900 deaths, more than 44,000 injuries, and a total economic loss of $20 billion in South Carolina alone. Schools, hospitals, fire stations, ordinary buildings, and bridges will suffer significant damage due to the general lack of seismic design in the state. Lesser damage and losses will be sustained in the other earthquake scenarios although even the smallest event could result in significant losses.

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