A Candidate Proxy to be used in Intensity-Based Triggering Mechanism for Parametric CAT-Bond Insurance: Istanbul Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 565-588
Author(s):  
Mehdi Mousavi ◽  
Sinan Akkar ◽  
Mustafa Erdik
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Cat Bonds ◽  
Bond Insurance ◽  
Accelerometric Network ◽  
Seismic Networks ◽  
Event Based

We study the suitability of average peak ground acceleration ( PGA) as a ground-motion proxy for parametric catastrophe bond (CAT bond) design. We tie the selection of PGA (as a triggering parameter for CAT bonds) to computational convenience (fast retrieval from the recorded ground motion) and loss correlation (optimum monetary return on the investor side). Our case studies advocate that PGA, as a candidate ground-motion proxy, can be used confidently for parametric CAT bonds, particularly applications associated with dense coverage of seismic networks. It is still a compelling ground-motion proxy even if the seismic network coverage is sparse, provided that the accelerometric stations are deployed in the vicinity of assets that financially represent the most significant portion of the insured building stock. We establish an event-based risk model of the Istanbul city (via Monte Carlo simulations) to depict the rationale behind our proposition and compare its performance with other competing (more sophisticated) proxies in terms of accelerometric network density and spatial distribution as well as the different risk levels used in risk management.

scholarly journals THE ACCELEROMETRIC NETWORK OF THE INDES-MUSA PROJECT IN THE KALOCHORI AREA: CONFIGURATION, DOCUMENTATION AND PRELIMINARY DATA INTERPRETATION

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 1100 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Rovithis ◽  
K. Makra ◽  
A. Savvaidis ◽  
E. Kirtas
Keyword(s):  
Free Field ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Data Interpretation ◽  
Web Gis ◽  
Ground Subsidence ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Preliminary Identification ◽  
Accelerometric Network

 A network of seven accelerometric stations on both ground surface and structures has been recently installed, as part of a multi-sensor network for monitoring seismic motion and ground subsidence in the broader area of Kalochori, west of Thessaloniki in Northern Greece, within the INDES-MUSA project. This network includes ground installations within the urban area, structural stations on top of structures and a freefield station away from the building stock. The documentation of stations is presented including shear wave velocity profiles of the subsoil at each location. A set of thirtynine earthquakes recorded so far by the accelerometric network is reported, followed by data processing procedures performed in the acquired waveforms. Comparisons of the processed earthquake recordings are presented referring to (a) the urbanground and the free-field stations in terms of peak ground acceleration, indicating amplification trends of ground motion, and (b) the structural and the nearby urban ground stations by means of top-to-base ratios in the frequency domain, towards a preliminary identification of the fundamental vibrational characteristics of the instrumented structures. The processed acceleration data are available through the INDES-MUSA Web-GIS portal.

scholarly journals Geo-Characterization at selected accelerometric stations in Crete (Greece) and comparison of earthquake data recordings with EC8 elastic spectra

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Savvaidis ◽  
B. Margaris ◽  
N. Theodoulidis ◽  
V. Lekidis ◽  
Ch. Karakostas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Response Spectrum ◽  
Aegean Sea ◽  
Elastic Response ◽  
Seismic Zone ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Motion Data ◽  
Wave Measurements ◽  
Accelerometric Network ◽  
Almost All

AbstractTo estimate the seismic response according to Eurocode (EC8) and almost all other national codes, site conditions have to be properly characterized so that soil amplification and the corresponding peak ground motion can be calculated.In this work, different geophysical and geotechnical methods are combined in order to define the detailed ground conditions in selected sites of the Hellenic Accelerometric Network (HAN) in Crete. For this purpose, the geological information of the sites and shear wave velocity, calculated from surface wave measurements, is used. Additionally, ground acceleration data recorded through HAN have been utilized from intermediate depth earthquakes in the broader area of South Aegean Sea.Using the recorded ground motion data and the procedure defined in EC8, the corresponding elastic response spectrum is calculated for the selected sites. The resulting information is compared to the values defined in the corresponding EC8 spectrum for the seismic zone that includes the island of Crete.The comparison shows that accurate definition of ground type through geological, geotechnical and geophysical investigations is important. However, our current comparison focuses on the distribution of values rather than the absolute values of EC8-prescribed spectra, and the results should be considered in this context.

Raspberry Shakes provide initial ground motion assessment of the geothermally induced seismicity at United Downs in Cornwall, UK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Holmgren ◽  
Maximilian Werner
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Station ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Geothermal System ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
High Background ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Local Geology ◽  
Seismic Networks

<p>The United Downs enhanced geothermal system in Cornwall, UK, has induced several microseismic events since flow testing began in August 2020, targeting a granitic intrusion at 5 km depth. As of January 2021, two events exceeding local magnitudes (M<sub>L</sub>) 1.5 have occurred, highlighting the associated seismic hazard and providing initial data for a preliminary assessment of the region’s ground motion response. However, with only one national seismic station publicly available within 90 km of the site, public data are scarce. In an effort to involve the surrounding communities in the geothermal project, United Downs provided Raspberry Shake 1D or 4D (one vertical geophone, with 4D containing an additional three accelerometers) seismographs to nearby schools, increasing the number of publicly available seismic stations to ten within 15 km of the site. In this study, we assess the ground motions recorded by the Raspberry Shake stations and evaluate their utility for probing ground motions models (GMMs) and the effects of the local geology.</p><p>171 earthquakes between M<sub>L</sub> -1.3 to 1.7 originating at United Downs have been recorded to date, with 37 events above M<sub>L</sub> 0.0. Unfortunately, the accelerometer components of the Raspberry Shake instruments contained too high background noise levels to be useable, leaving only the vertical geophone component to be analysed for each of the instruments. We find that while the peak ground velocity (PGV) values are in line with those predicted from the Douglas et al. (2013) geothermal GMM, the area experiences higher peak ground acceleration (PGA) than expected. We also find that the observed PGVs and PGAs match the region’s geological features, consisting of a combination of igneous intrusions and sedimentary sandstones and mudstones. For sparse national seismic networks, Raspberry Shake stations can provide a quick initial evaluation of seismic events and their ground motions before industry releases private data for more detailed analyses.</p>

Site effects of the Denis-Perron dam (SM-3): A case study in Eastern North America

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110194
Author(s):  
Daniel Verret ◽  
Denis LeBœuf ◽  
Éric Péloquin
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Site Effects ◽  
Transfer Functions ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Large Dams ◽  
Moderate Seismicity

Eastern North America (ENA) is part of a region with low-to-moderate seismicity; nonetheless, some significant seismic events have occurred in the last few decades. Recent events have reemphasized the need to review ENA seismicity and ground motion models, along with continually reevaluating and updating procedures related to the seismic safety assessment of hydroelectric infrastructures, particularly large dams in Québec. Furthermore, recent researchers have shown that site-specific characteristics, topography, and valley shapes may significantly aggravate the severity of ground motions. To the best of our knowledge, very few instrumental data from actual earthquakes have been published for examining the site effects of hydroelectric dam structures located in eastern Canada. This article presents an analysis of three small earthquakes that occurred in 1999 and 2002 at the Denis-Perron (SM-3) dam. This dam, the highest in Québec, is a rockfill embankment structure with a height of 171 m and a length of 378 m; it is located in a narrow valley. The ground motion datasets of these earthquakes include the bedrock and dam crest three-component accelerometer recordings. Ground motions are analyzed both in the time and frequency domains. The spectral ratios and transfer functions obtained from these small earthquakes provide new insights into the directionality of resonant frequencies, vibration modes, and site effects for the Denis-Perron dam. The crest amplifications observed for this dam are also compared with previously published data for large dams. New statistical relationships are proposed to establish dam crest amplification on the basis of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the foundation.

scholarly journals Fragility curves for Italian URM buildings based on a hybrid method

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sandoli ◽  
G. P. Lignola ◽  
B. Calderoni ◽  
A. Prota
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Fragility Curves ◽  
Limit State ◽  
Ultimate Limit State ◽  
Masonry Building ◽  
Masonry Buildings ◽  
Seismic Behaviour ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Damage Scenario

AbstractA hybrid seismic fragility model for territorial-scale seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings is developed and presented in this paper. The method combines expert-judgment and mechanical approaches to derive typological fragility curves for Italian residential masonry building stock. The first classifies Italian masonry buildings in five different typological classes as function of age of construction, structural typology, and seismic behaviour and damaging of buildings observed following the most severe earthquakes occurred in Italy. The second, based on numerical analyses results conducted on building prototypes, provides all the parameters necessary for developing fragility functions. Peak-Ground Acceleration (PGA) at Ultimate Limit State attainable by each building’s class has been chosen as an Intensity Measure to represent fragility curves: three types of curve have been developed, each referred to mean, maximum and minimum value of PGAs defined for each building class. To represent the expected damage scenario for increasing earthquake intensities, a correlation between PGAs and Mercalli-Cancani-Sieber macroseismic intensity scale has been used and the corresponding fragility curves developed. Results show that the proposed building’s classes are representative of the Italian masonry building stock and that fragility curves are effective for predicting both seismic vulnerability and expected damage scenarios for seismic-prone areas. Finally, the fragility curves have been compared with empirical curves obtained through a macroseismic approach on Italian masonry buildings available in literature, underlining the differences between the methods.

scholarly journals From scenario-based seismic hazard to scenario-based landslide hazard: fast-forwarding to the future via statistical simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luigi Lombardo ◽  
Hakan Tanyas
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Landslide Hazard ◽  
Northridge Earthquake ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Temporal Dimension ◽  
Earthquake Scenario ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Ground Motion Scenarios

AbstractGround motion scenarios exists for most of the seismically active areas around the globe. They essentially correspond to shaking level maps at given earthquake return times which are used as reference for the likely areas under threat from future ground displacements. Being landslides in seismically actively regions closely controlled by the ground motion, one would expect that landslide susceptibility maps should change as the ground motion patterns change in space and time. However, so far, statistically-based landslide susceptibility assessments have primarily been used as time-invariant.In other words, the vast majority of the statistical models does not include the temporal effect of the main trigger in future landslide scenarios. In this work, we present an approach aimed at filling this gap, bridging current practices in the seismological community to those in the geomorphological and statistical ones. More specifically, we select an earthquake-induced landslide inventory corresponding to the 1994 Northridge earthquake and build a Bayesian Generalized Additive Model of the binomial family, featuring common morphometric and thematic covariates as well as the Peak Ground Acceleration generated by the Northridge earthquake. Once each model component has been estimated, we have run 1000 simulations for each of the 217 possible ground motion scenarios for the study area. From each batch of 1000 simulations, we have estimated the mean and 95% Credible Interval to represent the mean susceptibility pattern under a specific earthquake scenario, together with its uncertainty level. Because each earthquake scenario has a specific return time, our simulations allow to incorporate the temporal dimension into any susceptibility model, therefore driving the results toward the definition of landslide hazard. Ultimately, we also share our results in vector format – a .mif file that can be easily converted into a common shapefile –. There, we report the mean (and uncertainty) susceptibility of each 1000 simulation batch for each of the 217 scenarios.

scholarly journals Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Tianshui Urban Area, Gansu Province, China

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenming Wang ◽  
David T. Butler ◽  
Edward W. Woolery ◽  
Lanmin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Design ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Gansu Province ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Acceleration Time Histories

A scenario seismic hazard analysis was performed for the city of Tianshui. The scenario hazard analysis utilized the best available geologic and seismological information as well as composite source model (i.e., ground motion simulation) to derive ground motion hazards in terms of acceleration time histories, peak values (e.g., peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity), and response spectra. This study confirms that Tianshui is facing significant seismic hazard, and certain mitigation measures, such as better seismic design for buildings and other structures, should be developed and implemented. This study shows that PGA of 0.3 g (equivalent to Chinese intensity VIII) should be considered for seismic design of general building and PGA of 0.4 g (equivalent to Chinese intensity IX) for seismic design of critical facility in Tianshui.

Strong ground motion of mine tremors: Some implications for near-source ground motion parameters

1981 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 295-319
Author(s):  
A. McGarr ◽  
R. W. E. Green ◽  
S. M. Spottiswoode
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Shear Velocity ◽  
Recording System ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Hypocentral Distance ◽  
Earthquake Size ◽  
Mine Tremors ◽  
Stress Drops

abstract Ground acceleration was recorded at a depth of about 3 km in the East Rand Proprietary Mines, South Africa, for tremors with −1 ≦ ML ≦ 2.6 in the hypocentral distance range 50 m < R ≦ 1.6 km. The accelerograms typically had predominant frequencies of several hundred Hertz and peak accelerations, a, as high as 12 g. The peak accelerations show a dependence on magnitude, especially when expressed as dynamic shear-stress differences, defined as σ˜ = ρRa, where ρ is density. For the mine tremors, σ˜ varies from 2 to 500 bars and depends on magnitude according to log σ˜ = 1.40 + 0.38 · ML. Accelerograms for 12 events were digitized and then processed to determine velocity and, for seven events with especially good S/N, displacement and seismic source parameters. Peak ground velocities v ranged up to 6 cm/sec and show a well-defined dependence one earthquake size as measured by ML or by seismic moment, Mo. On the basis of regression fits to the mine data, with −0.76 ≦ ML ≦ 1.45, log Rv = 3.95 + 0.57 ML, where Rv is in cm2/sec, and log Rv = −4.68 + 0.49 log Mo. These regression lines agree excellently with the corresponding data for earthquakes of ML up to 6.4 or Mo to 1.4 × 1026 dyne-cm. At a given value of ML or Mo, a, at fixed R, shows considerably greater variation than v and appears to depend on the bandwidth of the recording system. The peak acceleration at small hypocentral distances is broadly consistent with ρRa = 1.14 Δτrofs/β, where Δτ is stress drop, ro is the source radius, β is shear velocity, and fs is the bandwidth of the recording system. The peak velocity data agree well with Rv = 0.57 βΔτro/μ, where μ is the modulus of rigidity; both expressions follow from Brune's model of the seismic source and were compared with data for events in the size range 5 × 1016 ≦ Mo ≦ 1.4 × 1026 dyne-cm. Measurements of the source parameters indicated that, as for earthquakes, the stress drops for the tremors range from 1 to 100 bars and show no consistent dependence on Mo down to Mo = 5 × 1016 dyne-cm.

scholarly journals Investigating the influence of topographic irregularities and two-dimensional effects on surface ground motion intensity with one- and two-dimensional analyses

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 1773-1788 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Ç. İnce ◽  
L. Yılmazoğlu
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Site Response ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Equivalent Linear ◽  
Local Soil ◽  
Different Depths ◽  
Earthquake Response Analysis

Abstract. In this work, the surface ground motion that occurs during an earthquake in ground sections having different topographic forms has been examined with one and two dynamic site response analyses. One-dimensional analyses were undertaken using the Equivalent-Linear Earthquake Response Analysis (EERA) program based on the equivalent linear analysis principle and the Deepsoil program which is able to make both equivalent linear and nonlinear analyses and two-dimensional analyses using the Plaxis 8.2 software. The viscous damping parameters used in the dynamic site response analyses undertaken with the Plaxis 8.2 software were obtained using the DeepSoil program. In the dynamic site response analyses, the synthetic acceleration over a 475-year return period representing the earthquakes in Istanbul was used as the basis of the bedrock ground motion. The peak ground acceleration obtained different depths of soils and acceleration spectrum values have been compared. The surface topography and layer boundaries in the 5-5' cross section which cuts across the study area west to east were selected in order to examine the effect of the land topography and layer boundaries on the analysis results, and were flattened and compared with the actual status. The analysis results showed that the characteristics of the surface ground motion change in relation to the varying local soil conditions and land topography.

scholarly journals Earthquakes on the surface: earthquake location and area based on more than 14 500 ShakeMaps

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1665-1679
Author(s):  
Stephanie Lackner
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Strong Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Location ◽  
Primary Concern ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Geographic Context ◽  
The Social ◽  
Strong Ground

Abstract. Earthquake impact is an inherently interdisciplinary topic that receives attention from many disciplines. The natural hazard of strong ground motion is the reason why earthquakes are of interest to more than just seismologists. However, earthquake shaking data often receive too little attention by the general public and impact research in the social sciences. The vocabulary used to discuss earthquakes has mostly evolved within and for the discipline of seismology. Discussions on earthquakes outside of seismology thus often use suboptimal concepts that are not of primary concern. This study provides new theoretic concepts as well as novel quantitative data analysis based on shaking data. A dataset of relevant global earthquake ground shaking from 1960 to 2016 based on USGS ShakeMap data has been constructed and applied to the determination of past ground shaking worldwide. Two new definitions of earthquake location (the shaking center and the shaking centroid) based on ground motion parameters are introduced and compared to the epicenter. These definitions are intended to facilitate a translation of the concept of earthquake location from a seismology context to a geographic context. Furthermore, the first global quantitative analysis on the size of the area that is on average exposed to strong ground motion – measured by peak ground acceleration (PGA) – is provided.

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