Earthquake Loss Estimates and Policy Implications for Nonductile Concrete Buildings in Los Angeles

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 1951-1973 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thalia Anagnos ◽  
Mary C. Comerio ◽  
Jonathan P. Stewart
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Seismic Safety ◽  
Collapse Potential ◽  
Concrete Buildings ◽  
Earthquake Loss ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Policy Proposals

The collapse potential of nonductile concrete buildings represents a substantial life safety hazard globally that can be mitigated through carefully crafted policy. Mitigation policy should be approached incrementally by (1) understanding problem scale, (2) screening for low- and high-risk buildings, (3) performing engineering analysis for potentially vulnerable buildings, and (4) retrofit or replacement of high-risk structures. This research addresses initial stages of this sequence for Los Angeles, California. The intent was to investigate approaches for informing mitigation priorities by: characterizing the inventory of approximately 1,500 pre-1976 concrete buildings; estimating risk, including identification of building types that contribute most substantially to the risk; and investigating the impact of retrofit policy alternatives. Loss estimates for scenario events are based on the HAZUS™ Advanced Engineering Building Module. Depending on model assumptions, losses range from $1.8 to $28.5 billion and <50 to 8,300 fatalities. We investigate proposals targeting vulnerable buildings for retrofit as compared to retrofitting all buildings in the inventory. Awareness raised by this research contributed to the formation of the Los Angeles Mayoral Seismic Safety Task Force, which developed policy proposals.

Controlled Evaluation of Rural Regional Perinatal Care: Developmental and Neurologic Outcomes at 1 Year

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1986 ◽  
Vol 77 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Earl Siegel ◽  
Dennis Gillings ◽  
Suzann Campbell ◽  
Priscilla Guild
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Physical Health ◽  
Control Region ◽  
Professional Education ◽  
Perinatal Care ◽  
Newborn Infants ◽  
Receptive Language ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Study Region ◽  
The Impact

The effectiveness of a rural regionalized perinatal care (RPC) program was evaluated by a controlled, population-based design. The RPC program, begun in a carefully selected study region in July 1975, evolved into a system of care which included the following major components: identification of high-risk pregnancies and high-risk newborn infants; obstetric and newborn consultation and referral services between Level I, II, and III centers; professional education for physicians, nurses, and other health professionals; and nutrition and social work consultation. Substantial resources were made available from 1975 to 1980 to implement this "total package" of RPC. A matched, control region was identified which, except for the RPC program, was as comparable as possible to the study region. It was hypothesized that the RPC intervention would have the following effects when the study region was compared with the control region: reduction in fetal and neonatal mortality, no increase in postneonatal mortality, and reduction in obstetric and newborn morbidity. These findings were reported previously. This paper presents results of hypothesized reductions in adverse developmental, neurologic, maternal-infant attachment, and selected physical health outcomes. A sample of 447 infants was assessed by an extensive battery of instruments at 1 year, adjusted for gestational age. The most notable findings were mothers' reports of receptive language development and observations of maternal attachment behaviors that significantly favored the study region. No significant differences between study and control regions were observed for Bayley Mental and Motor Scores, abnormal neurologic signs, and the physical health measures. The impact of rural RPC in North Carolina on the 1-year outcomes is discussed and policy implications are presented.

Using Collapse Risk Assessments to Inform Seismic Safety Policy for Older Concrete Buildings

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 1495-1521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbie B. Liel ◽  
Gregory G. Deierlein
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Concrete Frames ◽  
Seismic Safety ◽  
Building Collapse ◽  
Safety Standards ◽  
Concrete Buildings ◽  
Concrete Frame ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Impact

For many in the engineering community, nonductile concrete buildings are the next priority for seismic safety legislation in California. The history of such policies shows that implementation has been challenged by the high costs of seismic retrofit, opposition from building owners, and difficulty in defining and evaluating seismic safety standards. As a result, seismic legislation for existing buildings has developed in response to major earthquakes, rather than through proactive risk assessment. Advances in performance-based earthquake engineering provide a consistent framework for assessing building collapse risk using nonlinear dynamic analysis. These tools are applied to evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced collapse and fatalities in a representative set of older concrete frames. Results show that nonductile concrete frame buildings are about 35 times more likely to collapse in earthquakes than their modern counterparts. These assessments are used to investigate the impact of policy alternatives for seismic mitigation of nonductile concrete buildings.

scholarly journals A Net Benefit Approach for the Optimal Allocation of a COVID-19 Vaccine

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erin Kirwin ◽  
Ellen Rafferty ◽  
Kate Harback ◽  
Jeff Round ◽  
Christopher McCabe
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Monetary Benefit ◽  
Net Monetary Benefit ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a severe, novel virus that has spread globally. The implementation of a combination of public health interventions is required to reduce viral spread and avoid overwhelming acute care systems. Once available, an effective vaccination will further mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, decision makers will initially need to prioritise access to limited vaccine stockpiles as these will be insufficient to vaccine the whole population.The aim of this study is to identify optimal vaccine allocation strategies defined by age and risk target groups, coverage, effectiveness, and cost of vaccine, within a dynamic context where other public health responses and population behaviour change. In this study we use an epidemiological model of COVID-19 that has been enhanced to produce expected costs and Quality Adjusted Life Year results as well as total cases, hospitalisations, deaths, and net monetary benefit. We use the model to simulate hypothetical scenarios where vaccine is allocated beginning on October 15, 2020 with vaccine assumptions ranging from moderately optimistic to ‘worst-case scenario’. Net monetary benefit is used as the objective for optimisation.In a scenario with a sterilizing vaccine that is 80% effective, a stockpile sufficient for 40% population coverage, and prioritisation of those over the age of 60 at high risk of poor outcomes, active cases are reduced by 29.2% and net monetary benefit increased by $297 million dollars, relative to an identical scenario with no vaccine. The relative impact of prioritisation strategies varies greatly depending on concurrent public health interventions, for example, polices such as school closures and senior contact reductions have similar impacts on incremental net monetary benefit when there is no prioritisation given to any age or risk group (147 vs. 120 million, respectively), but when older and high risk groups are given priority, the benefit of school closures is much larger than reducing contacts for seniors (iNB 122 vs. 79 million, respectively). Results demonstrated that rank ordering of different prioritisation options varied greatly by prioritisation criteria, with different vaccine effectiveness and coverage, and by concurrently implemented policies.The results of this paper have three key policy implications: (i) that optimal vaccine allocation will depend on the public health policies, and human behaviours in place at the time of allocation; (ii) the outcomes of vaccine allocation policies can be greatly supported with interventions targeting contact reduction in critical sub-populations; and (iii) the identification of the optimal strategy depends on which outcomes are prioritised.

An Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Intensive Supervision on the Recidivism of High-Risk Probationers

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordan M. Hyatt ◽  
Geoffrey C. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Experimental Evaluation ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Intensive Supervision ◽  
Offense Type ◽  
Technical Violations ◽  
Intensive Supervision Probation ◽  
Home Visitations ◽  
The Impact

This article reports the results of an experimental evaluation of the impact of Intensive Supervision Probation (ISP) on probationer recidivism. Participants, who were assessed at an increased likelihood of committing serious crimes and not ordered to specialized supervision, were randomly assigned to ISP ( n = 447) or standard probation ( n = 385). ISP probationers received more restrictive supervision and experienced more office contacts, home visitations, and drug screenings. After 12 months, there was no difference in offending. This equivalence holds across multiple types of crimes, including violent, non-violent, property, and drug offenses, as well as in a survival analysis conducted for each offense type. ISP probationers absconded from supervision, were charged with technical violations, and were incarcerated at significantly higher rates. Policy implications for these results are discussed.

The Doctor Faustus Dossier

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian Daub
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Music And Literature ◽  
Twentieth Century Music ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Doctor Faustus ◽  
Public Lives ◽  
Nazi Era ◽  
The Impact

Arnold Schoenberg and Thomas Mann, two towering figures of twentieth-century music and literature, both found refuge in the German-exile community in Los Angeles during the Nazi era. This complete edition of their correspondence provides a glimpse inside their private and public lives and culminates in the famous dispute over Mann's novel Doctor Faustus. In the thick of the controversy was Theodor Adorno, then a budding philosopher, whose contribution to the Faustus affair would make him an enemy of both families. Gathered here for the first time in English, the letters are complemented by diary entries, related articles, and other primary source materials, as well as an introduction that contextualizes the impact that these two great artists had on twentieth-century thought and culture.

Welfare Reform and the Delivery of Welfare-to-Work Programs to AAPIs: What Works?

2007 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian Chow ◽  
Grace Yoo ◽  
Catherine Vu
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Welfare Reform ◽  
Asian American ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Personal Responsibility ◽  
Welfare To Work ◽  
Work Program ◽  
What Works ◽  
One Stop ◽  
The Impact

The passage of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act (PRWORA) of 1996 has major implications for low-income Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) populations. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the research currently examining the impact of welfare reform on AAPI recipients and the welfare-to-work services available to this population. This article highlights AAPI participation and their timing-out rates in California’s CalWORKs program and their barriers to transitioning to work. Four welfare-to-work program models and recommendations are presented to illustrate strategies that can be used to address the unique needs of AAPI in order to alleviate their high risk for timing-out: one-stop-shops, transitional jobs programs, providing comprehensive and family focused services, and additional research and evaluation of programs specific to assisting the AAPI population on CalWORKs.

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