scholarly journals Effects of zonation on the results of the application of the regional time predictable seismicity model in Greece and Japan

2000 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 221-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. F. Karakaisis
Keyword(s):  
Seismicity Model

scholarly journals The use of Monte Carlo simulations for seismic hazard assessment in the U.K.

2000 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. M. W. Musson
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Moderate Seismicity ◽  
Seismicity Model

The input required for a seismic hazard study using conventional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard assessment (PSHA) methods can also be used for probabilistic analysis of hazard using Monte Carlo simulation methods. This technique is very flexible, and seems to be under-represented in the literature. It is very easy to modify the form of the seismicity model used, for example, to introduce non-Poissonian behaviour, without extensive reprogramming. Uncertainty in input parameters can also be modelled very flexibly - for example, by the use of a standard deviation rather than by the discrete branches of a logic tree. In addition (and this advantage is perhaps not as trivial as it may sound) the simplicity of the method means that its principles can be grasped by the layman, which is useful when results have to be explained to people outside the seismological/engineering communities, such as planners and politicians. In this paper, some examples of the Monte Carlo method in action are shown in the context of a low to moderate seismicity area: the United Kingdom.

Maximum Earthquake Size and Seismicity Rate from an ETAS Model with Slip Budget

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (2) ◽  
pp. 874-885
Author(s):  
David Marsan ◽  
Yen Joe Tan
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Moment ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Physical Parameters ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Seismicity Rate ◽  
Omori Law ◽  
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Size ◽  
Maximum Earthquake ◽  
Seismicity Model

ABSTRACT We define a seismicity model based on (1) the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model that accounts for earthquake clustering, and (2) a closed slip budget at long timescale. This is achieved by not permitting an earthquake to have a seismic moment greater than the current seismic moment deficit. This causes the Gutenberg–Richter law to be modulated by a smooth upper cutoff, the location of which can be predicted from the model parameters. We investigate the various regimes of this model that more particularly include a regime in which the activity does not die off even with a vanishingly small spontaneous (i.e., background) earthquake rate and one that bears strong statistical similarities with repeating earthquake time series. Finally, this model relates the earthquake rate and the geodetic moment rate and, therefore, allows to make sense of this relationship in terms of fundamental empirical law (the Gutenberg–Richter law, the productivity law, and the Omori law) and physical parameters (seismic coupling, tectonic loading rate).

California Earthquake Forecasts Based on Smoothed Seismicity: Model Choices

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (3) ◽  
pp. 1422-1430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q. Wang ◽  
D. D. Jackson ◽  
Y. Y. Kagan
Keyword(s):  
Smoothed Seismicity ◽  
Seismicity Model

Seismic Hazard Estimation in East China Offshore Areas

2013 ◽  
Vol 690-693 ◽  
pp. 1158-1167
Author(s):  
Li Fang Zhang ◽  
Yan Ju Peng ◽  
Zhen Ming Wang
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
East China ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Seismicity Model ◽  
Seismic Hazard Estimation

In this study, we chose East China offshore areas as study region(N25°~41°，E117°~126°).According to the tectonic environments and characteristics of earthquake the seismotectonic units were established, taking Gaussian spatially smoothing only based on the input earthquake catalog, and fault-rupture-oriented elliptical smoothing to calculate the seismic activity rate in each cells. The maps for the distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years were obtained through using the method of seismic hazard analysis based on cell source. While the total number of earthquakes unchanged, two-stage smoothing procedure deals with the error of epicenter location, contains the seismotectonic information in elliptical smoothing seismicity model. This method build up a simple and easy methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, especially for those place where not yet been clearly master the seismic tectonic information and with distributed Seismic activity.

scholarly journals Forecasting Seismicity from Wastewater Disposal in Oklahoma

Eos ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terri Cook
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
The State ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Wastewater Disposal ◽  
Seismicity Model

Mandated wastewater injection reductions in effect since 2016 are inadequate for preventing future, large-magnitude earthquakes in the state, according to a new induced seismicity model.

Generation of a Stochastic Seismic Event Set Based on a New Seismicity Model in China’s Earthquake Catastrophe Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weijin Xu ◽  
Mengtan Gao ◽  
Huiqiang Zuo
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Event ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Catastrophe Model ◽  
Potential Source ◽  
Potential Sources ◽  
Seismicity Model

Abstract Earthquakes are among the most devastating natural disasters in China, causing serious casualties and property losses. To effectively reduce catastrophic risk, it is important to establish an earthquake catastrophe insurance system based on the earthquake catastrophe model, of which seismic hazard analysis is a main module. Probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis uses the potential source model, seismicity model, and ground-motion attenuation model, as well as the probability method to obtain the seismic hazard value of a given point. However, because the influence of a single seismic event is required when the earthquake catastrophe model is used for risk analysis, a series of single events needs to be generated according to the potential source model so as to calculate the influence of each event on the given point. In this study, based on the seismicity model (potential sources and their seismicity parameters) used in compiling the fifth generation of Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map of China, we use the Monte Carlo method to simulate seismic events conforming to temporal, spatial, and intensity distribution of China’s seismic activities. In the simulation process, we follow the Poisson distribution in occurrence time and the Gutenberg–Richter law in magnitude distribution, and we use potential sources and earthquake occurrence rates to describe spatial distribution. The simulated seismic events include the following parameters: date (year, month, and day), location (longitude and latitude), depth, magnitude, and attitude of seismogenic faults. The simulated seismic event set can support earthquake risk analysis in the earthquake catastrophe model and has been applied in the earthquake catastrophe model of China.

Seismicity Parameters and Spatially Smoothed Seismicity Model for Iran

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (3) ◽  
pp. 1133-1150 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Khodaverdian ◽  
H. Zafarani ◽  
M. Rahimian ◽  
V. Dehnamaki
Keyword(s):  
Seismicity Parameters ◽  
Spatially Smoothed Seismicity ◽  
Smoothed Seismicity ◽  
Seismicity Model
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