scholarly journals Impact of renal function on mid-term outcomes in heart failure patients treated with tolvaptan

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 175394471881906
Author(s):  
Kensuke Fujioka ◽  
Sumio Mizuno ◽  
Taro Ichise ◽  
Takao Matsui ◽  
Hiroaki Hirase ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Renal Function ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Free Water ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cardiac Events ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Continuous Use

Background: Although tolvaptan, an electrolyte-free water diuretic for congestive heart failure (HF), is reported to have no effect on long-term mortality or HF-related morbidity, there may exist some subgroups of patients who may receive beneficial effect of tolvaptan. The purpose of this study was to identify clinical factors associated with mid-term effect of tolvaptan on clinical outcomes of patients who discharged after acute HF. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 140 patients (88 male; mean age, 77.1 ± 11.0 years) with acute HF who received tolvaptan (initial dose 8.6 ± 3.6 mg/day) during their hospitalization. They were divided into two groups according to how the tolvaptan was used at discharge; 77 in the tolvaptan-continued group and 63 in the discontinued group. Results: The Cox proportional hazards model revealed that eGFR was the only independent predictor for the occurrence of mid-term cardiac events (composite of re-hospitalization due to HF and all-cause death; aHR = 0.9870, p = 0.02597). The Kaplan–Meier survival curves of the two groups demonstrated no difference in cumulative event-free rates. In the subgroup with preserved renal function at admission (eGFR ⩾ 30 ml/min/1.73 m2), the continuous use of tolvaptan increased composite events (aHR = 2.130, p = 0.02549). Conclusions: The continuous use of tolvaptan after discharge did not affect mid-term cardiac events of HF overall but may be associated with increased cardiac events in the subgroup with preserved renal function. These findings suggest that the tolvaptan administration might need to be limited to treatment of in-hospital acute HF.

scholarly journals Clinical impact of regression from sustained to paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF registry

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Fujino ◽  
H Ogawa ◽  
S Ikeda ◽  
K Doi ◽  
Y Hamatani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Death ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Clinical Impact ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cardiac Events ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Adverse Cardiac Events

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) commonly progresses from paroxysmal type to sustained type in the natural course of the disease, and we previously demonstrated that the progression of AF was associated with increased risk of clinical adverse events. There are some patients, though less frequently, who regress from sustained to paroxysmal AF, but the clinical impact of the regression of AF remains unknown. Purpose We sought to investigate whether regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF is associated with better clinical outcomes. Methods Using the dataset of the Fushimi AF Registry, patients who were diagnosed as sustained (persistent or permanent) AF at baseline were studied. Conversion of sustained AF to paroxysmal AF during follow-up was defined as regression of AF. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were defined as the composite of cardiac death, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure (HF). Event rates were compared between the patients with and without regression of AF. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, predictors of MACE were identified using Cox proportional hazards model. Results Among 2,253 patients who were diagnosed as sustained AF at baseline, regression of AF was observed in 9.0% (202/2,253, 2.0 per 100 patient-years) during a median follow-up of 4.0 years. Of these, 24.3% (49/202, 4.6 per 100 patient-years) of the patients finally recurred to sustained AF during follow-up. The proportion of asymptomatic patients was lower in patients with regression of AF than those without (with vs without regression; 49.0% vs 69.5%, p<0.01). The percentage of beta-blocker use at baseline was similar between the two groups (37.2% vs 33.8%, p=0.34). The prevalence of patients who underwent catheter ablation or electrical cardioversion during follow-up was higher in patients with regression of AF (catheter ablation: 15.8% vs 5.5%; p<0.01, cardioversion: 4.0% vs 1.4%; p<0.01, respectively). The rate of MACE was significantly lower in patients with regression of AF as compared with patients who maintained sustained AF (3.7 vs 6.2 per 100 patient-years, log-rank p<0.01). Figure shows the Kaplan-Meier curves for MACE, cardiac death, hospitalization for heart failure, and stroke. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, multivariable Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that regression of AF was an independent predictor of lower MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28 to 0.88, p=0.02), stroke (HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.88, p=0.02), and hospitalization for HF (HR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.85, p=0.01). Conclusion Regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF was associated with a lower incidence of adverse cardiac events. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Combining Symbolic Regression with the Cox Proportional Hazards Model Improves Prediction of Heart Failure Deaths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Casper Wilstrup ◽  
Chris Cave
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Medical Records ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Model ◽  
Symbolic Regression ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Hazards Model

Abstract Background: Heart failure is a clinical syndrome characterised by a reduced ability of the heart to pump blood. Patients with heart failure have a high mortality rate, and physicians need reliable prognostic predictions to make informed decisions about the appropriate application of devices, transplantation, medications, and palliative care. In this study, we demonstrate that combining symbolic regression with the Cox proportional hazards model improves the ability to predict death due to heart failure compared to using the Cox proportional hazards model alone. Methods: We used a newly invented symbolic regression method called the QLattice to analyse a data set of medical records for 299 Pakistani patients diagnosed with heart failure. The QLattice identified a minimal set of mathematical transformations of the available covariates, which we then used in a Cox model to predict survival.Results: An exponential function of age, the inverse of ejection fraction, and the inverse of serum creatinine were identified as the best risk factors for predicting heart failure deaths. A Cox model fitted on these transformed covariates had improved predictive performance compared with a Cox model on the same covariates without mathematical transformations. Conclusion: Symbolic regression is a way to find transformations of covariates from patients’ medical records which can improve the performance of survival regression models. At the same time, these simple functions are intuitive and easy to apply in clinical settings. The direct interpretability of the simple forms may help researchers gain new insights into the actual causal pathways leading to deaths.

scholarly journals Pentraxin-3 Predicts Long-Term Cardiac Events in Patients with Chronic Heart Failure

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haibo Liu ◽  
Xiaofang Guo ◽  
Kang Yao ◽  
Chunming Wang ◽  
Guozhong Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Chronic Heart Failure ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Heart Association ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Pentraxin 3 ◽  
Cardiac Events

The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term prognostic value of pentraxin-3 (PTX3) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). 377 patients were prospectively followed up for 3 years to determine cardiac events including cardiac death or rehospitalization for worsening heart failure. The plasma PTX3 levels were significantly higher in CHF patients than in healthy subjects (p<0.001), and they increased with advancing New York Heart Association (NYHA) Functional Classification (p<0.001). Plasma PTX3 levels in CHF patients with cardiac events were significantly higher than in event-free patients (p<0.001). We determined the normal upper limit of plasma PTX3 levels from the mean + 2 SD value of 64 control subjects (3.64 ng/mL). A Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients with increased PTX3 (≥3.64 ng/mL) were at a higher risk for cardiac events than those without increased PTX3 (p<0.01). A multifactorial Cox proportional hazards model showed that increased PTX3 (≥3.64 ngImL) was an independent risk factor for cardiac events in CHF patients (hazard ratio (HR) = 4.224,p<0.01; 95% CI: 1.130–15.783). Plasma PTX3 levels are a long-term independent predictor of prognosis in patients with CHF.

scholarly journals Combining symbolic regression with the Cox proportional hazards model improves prediction of heart failure deaths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Casper Wilstup ◽  
Chris Cave
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Medical Records ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Model ◽  
Symbolic Regression ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Hazards Model

AbstractHeart failure is a clinical syndrome characterised by a reduced ability of the heart to pump blood. Patients with heart failure have a high mortality rate, and physicians need reliable prognostic predictions to make informed decisions about the appropriate application of devices, transplantation, medications, and palliative care. In this study, we demonstrate that combining symbolic regression with the Cox proportional hazards model improves the ability to predict death due to heart failure compared to using the Cox proportional hazards model alone.We used a newly invented symbolic regression method called the QLat-tice to analyse a data set of medical records for 299 Pakistani patients diagnosed with heart failure. The QLattice identified a minimal set of mathematical transformations of the available covariates, which we then used in a Cox model to predict survival.An exponential function of age, the inverse of ejection fraction, and the inverse of serum creatinine were identified as the best risk factors for predicting heart failure deaths. A Cox model fitted on these transformed covariates had improved predictive performance compared with a Cox model on the same covariates without mathematical transformations.Symbolic regression is a way to find transformations of covariates from patients’ medical records which can improve the performance of survival regression models. At the same time, these simple functions are intuitive and easy to apply in clinical settings. The direct interpretability of the simple forms may help researchers gain new insights into the actual causal pathways leading to deaths.

scholarly journals External validation of H2ARDD score for the prediction of heart failure events in patients with atrial fibrillation

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Taniguchi ◽  
Y Miyasaka ◽  
Y Suwa ◽  
S Harada ◽  
E Nakai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
History Of

Abstract Background Heart failure is an important consequence in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) which is associated with worse prognosis. The H2ARDD score, calculated from 5 clinical risk factors, was reported as a predictor of heart failure events in patients with AF. However, this score has not been externally validated. Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate and validate the usefulness of the H2ARDD score for the prediction of heart failure events in AF patients. Methods We used prospective data of patients with AF followed up from 2007 to 2017 in our institute. Patients with active cancer were excluded according to the previous report. H2ARDD score was calculated as follows; history of heart disease=2 points, anemia=1 point, renal dysfunction=1 point, diabetes =1 point, diuretic use=1 point (range from 0 to 6 points). Outcome of interest was defined as heart failure events including new-onset heart failure and death with heart failure. Heart failure was ascertained based on the Framingham criteria. Univariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazards model were used to assess the risk of heart failure events. Heart failure events-free survival was estimated with Kaplan-Meier methods, and the predictive accuracy of the H2ARDD score for the prediction of heart failure events was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Of 562 AF patients, 522 (age 69±10 year–old, 64.9%men) met study criteria. Patients who had a history of heart disease was 185 (35%), diabetes mellitus was 135 (26%), anemia was 54 (10%), renal dysfunction was 221 (43%), and diuretic use was 193 (37%). The mean H2ARDD score was 1.88±1.57. Of all study patients, 84 (16.2%) developed heart failure events during a mean follow–up of 54±42 months. Patients who developed heart failure events in 1 year was 24 (4.6%). In multivariable Cox–proportional hazards model, H2ARDD score was shown as an significant predictor for heart failure events (hazard ratio: 1.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.36 - 1.79, P&lt;0.0001), independently of age (per 10 years, hazard ratio: 1.35, 95% confidence interval: 1.03 – 1.78, P&lt;0.05). In the Kaplan–Meier analyses stratified by H2ARDD score (0–1, 2–3, 4–6), patients who had a higher H2ARDD sore had significantly worse heart failure event-free survival (log-rank P&lt;0.0001) (Figure 1). The area under the ROC curve for the prediction of heart failure events in 1-year was 0.812 (95% confidence interval: 0.737 – 0.887, P&lt;0.0001), and the best cut-off value was ≥4 points (sensitivity: 67%, specificity: 83%) (Figure 2). Conclusion H2ARDD score was demonstrated as a significant independent predictor for the prediction of heart failure events, with high predictive accuracy. H2ARDD score may be useful for heart failure risk stratification of AF patients. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1 Figure 2

scholarly journals Risk factors associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following percutaneous coronary intervention: a 10-year follow-up comparing random survival forest and Cox proportional-hazards model

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Farhadian ◽  
Sahar Dehdar Karsidani ◽  
Azadeh Mozayanimonfared ◽  
Hossein Mahjub
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Cerebrovascular Events ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Stent Length

Abstract Background Due to the limited number of studies with long term follow-up of patients undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), we investigated the occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCE) during 10 years of follow-up after coronary angioplasty using Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards models. Methods The current retrospective cohort study was performed on 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) undergoing coronary angioplasty from March 2009 to March 2012 in Farchshian Medical Center in Hamadan city, Iran. Survival time (month) as the response variable was considered from the date of angioplasty to the main endpoint or the end of the follow-up period (September 2019). To identify the factors influencing the occurrence of MACCE, the performance of Cox and RSF models were investigated in terms of C index, Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and prediction error criteria. Results Ninety-six patients (43.7%) experienced MACCE by the end of the follow-up period, and the median survival time was estimated to be 98 months. Survival decreased from 99% during the first year to 39% at 10 years' follow-up. By applying the Cox model, the predictors were identified as follows: age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05), diabetes (HR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.29–3.66), smoking (HR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.46–3.98), and stent length (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.75). The predictive performance was slightly better by the RSF model (IBS of 0.124 vs. 0.135, C index of 0.648 vs. 0.626 and out-of-bag error rate of 0.352 vs. 0.374 for RSF). In addition to age, diabetes, smoking, and stent length, RSF also included coronary artery disease (acute or chronic) and hyperlipidemia as the most important variables. Conclusion Machine-learning prediction models such as RSF showed better performance than the Cox proportional hazards model for the prediction of MACCE during long-term follow-up after PCI.

scholarly journals Elevated plasma growth and differentiation factor 15 predicts incident anemia in older adults aged 60 years and older

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuko Yamaguchi ◽  
Marta Zampino ◽  
Toshiko Tanaka ◽  
Stefania Bandinelli ◽  
Yusuke Osawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Differentiation Factor ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Anemia is common in older adults and associated with greater morbidity and mortality. The causes of anemia in older adults have not been completely characterized. Although elevated circulating growth and differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) has been associated with anemia in older adults, it is not known whether elevated GDF-15 predicts the development of anemia. Methods We examined the relationship between plasma GDF-15 concentrations at baseline in 708 non-anemic adults, aged 60 years and older, with incident anemia during 15 years of follow-up among participants in the Invecchiare in Chianti (InCHIANTI) Study. Results During follow-up, 179 (25.3%) participants developed anemia. The proportion of participants who developed anemia from the lowest to highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 was 12.9%, 20.1%, 21.2%, and 45.8%, respectively. Adults in the highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 had an increased risk of developing anemia (Hazards Ratio 1.15, 95% Confidence Interval 1.09, 1.21, P&lt;.0001) compared to those in the lower three quartiles in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, serum iron, soluble transferrin receptor, ferritin, vitamin B12, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and cancer. Conclusions Circulating GDF-15 is an independent predictor for the development of anemia in older adults.

scholarly journals Dementia Adjudication Triggers Associated With Increased Mortality for Older Australians: Evidence From ASPREE

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 161-161
Author(s):  
Jane Banaszak-Holl ◽  
Xiaoping Lin ◽  
Jing Xie ◽  
Stephanie Ward ◽  
Henry Brodaty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Service Planning ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cognitive Test ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Research Aims: This study seeks to understand whether those with dementia experience higher risk of death, using data from the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) clinical trial study. Methods: ASPREE was a primary intervention trial of low-dose aspirin among healthy older people. The Australian cohort included 16,703 dementia-free participants aged 70 years and over at enrolment. Participants were triggered for dementia adjudication if cognitive test results were poorer than expected, self-reporting dementia diagnosis or memory problems, or dementia medications were detected. Incidental dementia was adjudicated by an international adjudication committee using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria and results of a neuropsychological battery and functional measures with medical record substantiation. Statistical analyses used a cox proportional hazards model. Results: As previously reported, 1052 participants (5.5%) died during a median of 4.7 years of follow-up and 964 participants had a dementia trigger, of whom, 575 (60%) were adjucated as having dementia. Preliminary analyses has shown that the mortality rate was higher among participants with a dementia trigger, regardless of dementia adjudication outcome, than those without (15% vs 5%, Χ2 = 205, p &lt;.001). Conclusion: This study will provide important analyses of differences in the hazard ratio for mortality and causes of death among people with and without cognitive impairment and has important implications on service planning.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 121
Author(s):  
Beata Bieszk-Stolorz ◽  
Krzysztof Dmytrów
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier

The aim of our research was to compare the intensity of decline and then increase in the value of basic stock indices during the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The survival analysis methods used to assess the risk of decline and chance of rise of the indices were: Kaplan–Meier estimator, logit model, and the Cox proportional hazards model. We observed the highest intensity of decline in the European stock exchanges, followed by the American and Asian plus Australian ones (after the fourth and eighth week since the peak). The highest risk of decline was in America, then in Europe, followed by Asia and Australia. The lowest risk was in Africa. The intensity of increase was the highest in the fourth and eleventh week since the minimal value had been reached. The highest odds of increase were in the American stock exchanges, followed by the European and Asian (including Australia and Oceania), and the lowest in the African ones. The odds and intensity of increase in the stock exchange indices varied from continent to continent. The increase was faster than the initial decline.

scholarly journals Association between milk and yogurt intake and mortality: a community-based cohort study (Yamagata study)

BMC Nutrition ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akiko Nakanishi ◽  
Erika Homma ◽  
Tsukasa Osaki ◽  
Ri Sho ◽  
Masayoshi Souri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Milk Intake ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier

Abstract Background Dairy products are known as health-promoting foods. This study prospectively examined the association between milk and yogurt intake and mortality in a community-based population. Methods The study population comprised of 14,264 subjects aged 40–74 years who participated in an annual health checkup. The frequency of yogurt and milk intake was categorized as none (< 1/month), low (< 1/week), moderate (1–6/week), and high (> 1/day) intake. The association between yogurt and milk intake and total, cardiovascular, and cancer-related mortalities was determined using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results During the follow-up period, there were 265 total deaths, 40 cardiovascular deaths and 90 cancer-related deaths. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the total mortality in high/moderate/low yogurt intake and moderate/low milk intake groups was lower than that in none group (log-rank, P < 0.01). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis adjusted for possible confounders, the hazard ratio (HR) for total mortality significantly decreased in high/moderate yogurt intake group (HR: 0.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.42–0.91 for high intake, HR: 0.70, 95%CI: 0.49–0.99 for moderate intake) and moderate milk intake group (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.46–0.97) compared with the none yogurt and milk intake groups. A similar association was observed for cancer-related mortality, but not for cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions Our study showed that yogurt and milk intake was independently associated with a decrease in total and cancer-related mortalities in the Japanese population.

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