2500-year cultural sequence in the Massim region of eastern Papua New Guinea reflects adaptive strategies to small islands and changing climate regimes since Lapita settlement

The Holocene ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 1075-1090
Author(s):  
Ben Shaw ◽  
Simon Coxe ◽  
Vincent Kewibu ◽  
Jemina Haro ◽  
Emily Hull ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Adaptive Plasticity ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Adaptive Capabilities ◽  
Dry Conditions

Islands present significant technological and ecological challenges for long-term human settlement, with archaeological investigations of islands globally able to shed light on the adaptive plasticity of cultural groups to changing climatic regimes. The Massim islands of eastern New Guinea significantly reduced in size throughout the Holocene (⩽11.7 kya), providing a unique opportunity to investigate the long-term adaptive capabilities of humans to changing island ecosystems. Here, we report a 2500-2300 year cultural sequence on Nimowa Island in the Louisiade Archipelago of the Massim region which began with the arrival of a late Lapita population during initial beachfront development. Sediment analyses indicate earlier settlement on the island would not have been possible as the coastline was unstable until near-modern sea levels were reached. The island was abandoned from 1290 to 530 cal. BP during a period of unusually dry conditions (‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’) and probable freshwater shortages. Re-settlement coincided with wetter climatic conditions (‘Little Ice Age’), associated with the establishment of large villages, the earliest expression of local pottery traditions and the onset of large-scale regional exchange networks. Import of non-local obsidian reflects two pulses of interaction followed by periods of increased isolation. With the absence of high-quality lithic resources, shell, coral and bone were used as a locally available alternative for tool production. Increased cyclone frequency from ~500 cal. BP greatly increased beach volume in the island and coastal New Guinea, which facilitated the movement of populations onto smaller islands. A late prehistoric shift in settlement patterns had a profound impact on regional social dynamics.

scholarly journals Genome Sequence Analysis of First Ross River Virus Isolate from Papua New Guinea Indicates Long-Term, Local Evolution

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 482
Author(s):  
Alice Michie ◽  
John S. Mackenzie ◽  
David W. Smith ◽  
Allison Imrie
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Solomon Islands ◽  
Febrile Illness ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Recent Common Ancestor ◽  
Ross River Virus ◽  
Most Recent Common Ancestor ◽  
Mean Time

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most medically significant mosquito-borne virus of Australia, in terms of human morbidity. RRV cases, characterised by febrile illness and potentially persistent arthralgia, have been reported from all Australian states and territories. RRV was the cause of a large-scale epidemic of multiple Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs) from 1979 to 1980, involving at least 50,000 cases. Historical evidence of RRV seropositivity beyond Australia, in populations of Papua New Guinea (PNG), Indonesia and the Solomon Islands, has been documented. We describe the genomic characterisation and timescale analysis of the first isolate of RRV to be sampled from PNG to date. Our analysis indicates that RRV has evolved locally within PNG, independent of Australian lineages, over an approximate 40 year period. The mean time to most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the unique PNG clade coincides with the initiation of the PICTs epidemic in mid-1979. This may indicate that an ancestral variant of the PNG clade was seeded into the region during the epidemic, a period of high RRV transmission. Further epidemiological and molecular-based surveillance is required in PNG to better understand the molecular epidemiology of RRV in the general Australasian region.

Results of the QUENCH-L2, DISCO-L2, and COMET-L2 Experiments Performed Within the LACOMERA Project at the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexei Miassoedov ◽  
Hans Alsmeyer ◽  
Leonhard Meyer ◽  
Martin Steinbrueck ◽  
Pavlin Groudev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Fluid Dynamic ◽  
Test Phase ◽  
Severe Accident ◽  
Lower Head ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Experimental Facilities ◽  
Reactor Types ◽  
The Eu

The LACOMERA project at the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany, is a 4 year action within the 5th Framework Programme of the EU which started in September 2002. Overall objective of the project is to offer research institutions from the EU member countries and associated states access to four large-scale experimental facilities QUENCH, LIVE, DISCO, and COMET. These facilities are being used to investigate core melt scenarios from the beginning of core degradation to melt formation and relocation in the vessel, possible melt dispersion to the reactor cavity, and finally corium concrete interaction and corium coolability in the reactor cavity. The paper summarizes the main results obtained in the following three experiments: QUENCH-L2: Boil-off of a flooded bundle. The test is of a generic interest for all reactor types, provided a link between the severe accident and design basis areas, and would deliver oxidation and thermal hydraulic data at high temperatures. DISCO-L2: Fluid-dynamic, thermal, and chemical processes during melt ejection out of a breach in the lower head of a pressure vessel of the VVER-1000/320 type of reactor. COMET-L2: Investigation of long-term melt-concrete interaction of metallic corium in a cylindrical siliceous concrete cavity under dry conditions with decay heat simulation of intermediate power during the first test phase, and subsequently at reduced power during the second test phase.

scholarly journals Restoration ecologists might not get what they want: Global change shifts trade-offs among ecosystem functions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Fiedler ◽  
José A.F. Monteiro ◽  
Kristin B. Hulvey ◽  
Rachel J. Standish ◽  
Michael P. Perring ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Plant Diversity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Plant Traits ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Ecosystem Functions ◽  
List Type ◽  
Trade Offs

ABSTRACTEcological restoration increasingly aims at improving ecosystem multifunctionality and making landscapes resilient to future threats, especially in biodiversity hotspots such as Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Successful realisation of such a strategy requires a fundamental mechanistic understanding of the link between ecosystem plant composition, plant traits and related ecosystem functions and services, as well as how climate change affects these relationships. An integrated approach of empirical research and simulation modelling with focus on plant traits can allow this understanding.Based on empirical data from a large-scale restoration project in a Mediterranean-type climate in Western Australia, we developed and validated the spatially explicit simulation model ModEST, which calculates coupled dynamics of nutrients, water and individual plants characterised by traits. We then simulated all possible combinations of eight plant species with different levels of diversity to assess the role of plant diversity and traits on multifunctionality, the provision of six ecosystem functions (covering three ecosystem services), as well as trade-offs and synergies among the functions under current and future climatic conditions.Our results show that multifunctionality cannot fully be achieved because of trade-offs among functions that are attributable to sets of traits that affect functions differently. Our measure of multifunctionality was increased by higher levels of planted species richness under current, but not future climatic conditions. In contrast, single functions were differently impacted by increased plant diversity. In addition, we found that trade-offs and synergies among functions shifted with climate change.Synthesis and application. Our results imply that restoration ecologists will face a clear challenge to achieve their targets with respect to multifunctionality not only under current conditions, but also in the long-term. However, once ModEST is parameterized and validated for a specific restoration site, managers can assess which target goals can be achieved given the set of available plant species and site-specific conditions. It can also highlight which species combinations can best achieve long-term improved multifunctionality due to their trait diversity.

scholarly journals FACTORS INFLUENCING ESTUARY SEDIMENT DISTRIBUTION

1976 ◽  
Vol 1 (15) ◽  
pp. 120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary P. Kendrick ◽  
B.V. Derbyshire
Keyword(s):  
River Flow ◽  
Saline Water ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sediment Distribution ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Subsequent Period ◽  
Estuary Sediment

Many factors combine to determine the way in which sediments are distributed throughout an estuary. Most fundamental are those which produce the natural rhythm of diurnal (or semi-diurnal), bi-monthly and seasonal fluctuations due to predictable variations in tide and weather. This group includes tidal discharge, fresh river flow and the resultant distribution of saline water. When considered together with such factors as the availability and properties of sediments within and beyond the landward and seaward limits of an estuary, they determine how the available material shall be eroded, transported and deposited during the course of the natural cycle. Superimposed on these regular fluctuations are the effects of other factors which may or may not be predictable, are not necessarily regular in occurrence and may be either natural or man-made. These include secular trends, such as long-term adjustments in land/sea levels or climatic conditions, which have a small but continuing effect on some of the factors in the first group. They also include sudden, short-term events like earthquakes or hurricanes which impose a shock to the system that may involve the movement of large quantities of material during the subsequent period of readjustment.

Fluvial activity in major river basins of the eastern United States during the Holocene

The Holocene ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (9) ◽  
pp. 1279-1295
Author(s):  
Ray Lombardi ◽  
Lisa Davis ◽  
Gary E Stinchcomb ◽  
Samuel E Munoz ◽  
Lance Stewart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Cyclic Behavior ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
The Holocene

In the eastern United States, existing paleo-reconstructions in fluvial environments consist primarily of site-specific investigations of climate and human impacts on riverine processes. This paper presents the first meta-analysis of fluvial reconstructions focused on regional watersheds of the eastern United States, including the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, South Atlantic–Gulf Coast, Ohio, Mid-Atlantic, and New England regional watersheds. Chronologies of fluvial activity (i.e. alluvial deposition) and stability (i.e. landscape stability) were developed by synthesizing data from existing, published, and site-specific fluvial reconstruction studies conducted across the eastern United States. Overall, regional watersheds show variable patterns of synchronicity across watersheds and did not demonstrate cyclic behavior through the Holocene. During the last millennium, only the Lower Mississippi and Ohio regional watersheds exhibit high rates of fluvial activity active during the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ (650–1050 yr BP), while nearly all other regional watersheds in the eastern United States were active during the ‘Little Ice Age’ (100–500 yr BP). These findings imply that fluvial activity may be more spatially restricted during warmer/drier climatic conditions than during cooler/wetter periods. We find an increase in fluvial activity during the era of Euro-American colonization (400 yr BP to present) in the southeastern United States but not the northeastern United States, implying a heterogeneous response of fluvial systems to human activities in the eastern United States related to climatic, cultural, and/or physiographic variability. These new insights gained from fluvial chronologies in the eastern United States demonstrate the utility of regionally synthesized paleo-records to understand large-scale climate variation effect on rivers.

scholarly journals 300-years of hydrological records and societal responses to droughts and floods on the Pacific coast of Central America

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Guevara-Murua ◽  
Caroline A. Williams ◽  
Erica J. Hendy ◽  
Pablo Imbach
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Guatemala City ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Dry Conditions

Abstract. The management of hydrological extremes and impacts on society is inadequately understood because of the combination of short-term hydrological records, an equally short-term assessment of societal responses and the complex multi-directional relationships between the two over longer timescales. Rainfall seasonality and interannual variability on the Pacific coast of Central America is high due to the passage of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and large-scale phenomena El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we reconstruct hydrological variability and the associated impacts drawing on documentary sources from the cities of Santiago de Guatemala (now Antigua Guatemala) and Guatemala de la Asunción (now Guatemala City) over the period from 1640 to 1945. Near continuous records of city and municipal council meetings provide a rich source of information dating back to the beginning of Spanish colonisation in the 16thC. Beginning in 1640, we use almost continuous sources, including > 190 volumes of Actas de Cabildo and Actas Municipales (minutes of meetings of the city and municipal councils) held by the Archivo Histórico de la Municipalidad de Antigua Guatemala (AHMAG) and the Archivo General de Centro América (AGCA) in Guatemala City. For this 305-year period (with the exception of a total of 11 years where the books were either missing or damaged), information relating to Catholic rogation ceremonies and reports of flooding events and crop shortages, were used to classify the annual rainy season (May to October) on a 5 point scale from very wet to very dry. In total 12 years of very wet conditions, 25 years of wetter than usual conditions, 34 years of drier conditions and 21 years of very dry conditions were identified. An extended drier period from the 1640s to the 1740s was identified as well as two shorter periods (the 1820s and the 1840s) dominated by dry conditions. Wetter conditions dominated the 1760s–1810s, possibly coincident with reconstructions of more persistent La Niña conditions that are typically associated with higher precipitation over the Pacific Coast of Central America. The 1640s–1740s dry period coincides with the onset of the Little Ice Age and the associated southward displacement of the ITCZ.

scholarly journals The long-term variability of extreme sea levels in the German Bight

Ocean Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 651-668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Lang ◽  
Uwe Mikolajewicz
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Climate System ◽  
System Model ◽  
Tide Gauge Record ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The North

Abstract. Extreme high sea levels (ESLs) caused by storm floods constitute a major hazard for coastal regions. We here quantify their long-term variability in the southern German Bight using simulations covering the last 1000 years. To this end, global earth system model simulations from the PMIP3 past1000 project are dynamically scaled down with a regionally coupled climate system model focusing on the North Sea. This approach provides an unprecedented long high-resolution data record that can extend the knowledge of ESL variability based on observations, and allows for the identification of associated large-scale forcing mechanisms in the climate system. While the statistics of simulated ESLs compare well with observations from the tide gauge record at Cuxhaven, we find that simulated ESLs show large variations on interannual to centennial timescales without preferred oscillation periods. As a result of this high internal variability, ESL variations appear to a large extent decoupled from those of the background sea level, and mask any potential signals from solar or volcanic forcing. Comparison with large-scale climate variability shows that periods of high ESL are associated with a sea level pressure dipole between northeastern Scandinavia and the Gulf of Biscay. While this large-scale circulation regime applies to enhanced ESL in the wider region, it differs from the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern that has often been linked to periods of elevated background sea level. The high internal variability with large multidecadal to centennial variations emphasizes the inherent uncertainties related to traditional extreme value estimates based on short data subsets, which fail to account for such long-term variations. We conclude that ESL variations as well as existing estimates of future changes are likely to be dominated by internal variability rather than climate change signals. Thus, larger ensemble simulations will be required to assess future flood risks.

scholarly journals Was the Little Ice Age more or less El Niño-like than the Medieval Climate Anomaly? Evidence from hydrological and temperature proxy data

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lilo M. K. Henke ◽  
F. Hugo Lambert ◽  
Dan J. Charman
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Medieval Climate Anomaly ◽  
Climate Anomaly ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
The Past ◽  
Proxy Records

Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important source of global climate variability on interannual timescales and has substantial environmental and socio-economic consequences. However, it is unclear how it interacts with large-scale climate states over longer (decadal to centennial) timescales. The instrumental ENSO record is too short for analysing long-term trends and variability and climate models are unable to accurately simulate past ENSO states. Proxy data are used to extend the record, but different proxy sources have produced dissimilar reconstructions of long-term ENSO-like climate change, with some evidence for a temperature–precipitation divergence in ENSO-like climate over the past millennium, in particular during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; AD  ∼  800–1300) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD  ∼  1400–1850). This throws into question the stability of the modern ENSO system and its links to the global climate, which has implications for future projections. Here we use a new statistical approach using weighting based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) to create two new large-scale reconstructions of ENSO-like climate change derived independently from precipitation proxies and temperature proxies. The method is developed and validated using model-derived pseudo-proxy experiments that address the effects of proxy dating error, resolution, and noise to improve uncertainty estimations. We find no evidence that temperature and precipitation disagree over the ENSO-like state over the past millennium, but neither do they agree strongly. There is no statistically significant difference between the MCA and the LIA in either reconstruction. However, the temperature reconstruction suffers from a lack of high-quality proxy records located in ENSO-sensitive regions, which limits its ability to capture the large-scale ENSO signal. Further expansion of the palaeo-database and improvements to instrumental, satellite, and model representations of ENSO are needed to fully resolve the discrepancies found among proxy records and establish the long-term stability of this important mode of climatic variability.

scholarly journals Salty Urbanism: Toward an Adaptive Coastal Design Framework to Address Rising Seas and Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey E. Huber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Design ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Wildlife Habitat ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Rising Sea Levels ◽  
Economic Assets

Over the next 100 years, nothing will radically change thecoastal built environment more than climate change and sea level rise. The coastal zone is home to some of our country’s most valuable ecological and socio-economic assets. Many of these locations are being demonstrably transformed dueto large-scale human and biophysical processes. The result is a potential loss of myriad ecosystem services such as storm protection, wildlife habitat, recreation and aesthetics, among others. Policy and design solutions are not truly consideringthe necessary transformation that will be required to live and work within a saturated coastal environment. The old paradigm of flood management and control will need tochange from prevention to acceptance and population will decline as businesses and individuals decide the costs are too high. The need for developing a long-term urban design and planning framework that adapts to these effects is critical. More specifically, there is a need for a “systems” approach that utilizes urban design and takes into consideration infrastructure impacts, future investments, and insurability of risk as long-term objectives to address potential impacts from both coastal flooding and rising sea levels, while at the same time guiding communities’ future land use and investment plans.

High-resolution topography of the uplifting Huon Peninsula (Papua New Guinea) reveals high interstadial sea-levels over the past ~400 ka

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gino de Gelder ◽  
Laurent Husson ◽  
Anne-Morwenn Pastier ◽  
Denovan Chauveau ◽  
David Fernández-Blanco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coral Reef ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Level Curves ◽  
The Past ◽  
Reef Models ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level

<p>Quaternary sea-level curves provide crucial insights to constrain tectonic and climatic processes, but require calibration with geological constraints that are particularly scarce for cold periods prior to the last glacial-interglacial cycle. To derive such constraints, we re-visit the Huon Peninsula in Papua New Guinea, which is a classic coral reef terrace (CRT) site that was used for the earliest relative sea-level (RSL) curves. We use digital surface models calculated from 0.5m Pleiades satellite imagery to improve RSL constraints, and unlike previous studies, we find that large-scale tilting of the terrace sequence is generally N-directed. This implies that RSL estimates are several meters higher than previously thought for most highstands over the past ~125 ka. We use the large-scale geometry of the terrace sequence to estimate sea-level highstands up to ~400 ka, and our results suggest that global mean sea-level curves derived from oxygen isotopes consistently underestimate sea-level during the relatively cold Marine Isotope Stages 3, 5a, 5c, 6, 9a and 11a, up to ~10-20 m. We use coral reef models to show that our age interpretation is consistent with the overall terrace sequence morphology, and fits between models and topography improve when adjusting sea-level highstands according to our findings.</p>

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