NATO's Caps: European Security and the Future of the North Atlantic Alliance

1995 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Costas M. Constantinou
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
European Security ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic

scholarly journals A Look at the Relationship between the Large-Scale Tropospheric Static Stability and the Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 959-975
Author(s):  
Alexandria Downs ◽  
Chanh Kieu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Maximum Intensity ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractVarious modeling and observational studies have suggested that tropical cyclone (TC) intensity tends to increase in the future due to projected warmer sea surface temperature (SST). This study examines the effects of the tropospheric stratification that could potentially offset the direct increase of TC intensity associated with the warmer SST. Using reanalysis datasets and TC records in the northwestern Pacific and the North Atlantic basins, it is shown that there exists a consistently negative correlation between the annually averaged TC intensity and the basinwide average of the tropospheric static stability. This negative correlation is more robust in the northwestern Pacific basin when using the TC lifetime maximum intensity but is somewhat less significant in the North Atlantic basin. Further separation of the troposphere into a lower (1000–500 hPa) and an upper layer (500–200 hPa) reveals that it is the upper-tropospheric static stability that plays a more dominant role in governing the TC intensity variability. The negating effects of a stable troposphere on TC intensity as found in this study suggest a partial offset of the projected increase in the TC potential intensity due to the future warmer SST. Thus, the tropospheric static stability is one of the key large-scale factors that need to be properly taken into account in studies of long-term TC intensity change.

Statistical Projection of the North Atlantic Storm Tracks

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (7) ◽  
pp. 1509-1522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kajsa M. Parding ◽  
Rasmus Benestad ◽  
Abdelkader Mezghani ◽  
Helene B. Erlandsen
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractA method for empirical–statistical downscaling was adapted to project seasonal cyclone density over the North Atlantic Ocean. To this aim, the seasonal mean cyclone density was derived from instantaneous values of the 6-h mean sea level pressure (SLP) reanalysis fields. The cyclone density was then combined with seasonal mean reanalysis and global climate model projections of SLP or 500-hPa geopotential height to obtain future projections of the North Atlantic storm tracks. The empirical–statistical approach is computationally efficient because it makes use of seasonally aggregated cyclone statistics and allows the future cyclone density to be estimated from the full ensemble of available CMIP5 models rather than from a smaller subset. However, the projected cyclone density in the future differs considerably depending on the choice of predictor, SLP, or 500-hPa geopotential height. This discrepancy suggests that the relationship between the cyclone density and SLP, 500-hPa geopotential height, or both is nonstationary; that is, that the statistical model depends on the calibration period. A stationarity test based on 6-hourly HadGEM2-ES data indicated that the 500-hPa geopotential height was not a robust predictor of cyclone density.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclones in the UPSCALE Ensemble of High-Resolution Global Climate Models*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 574-596 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
Pier Luigi Vidale ◽  
Matthew S. Mizielinski ◽  
Marie-Estelle Demory ◽  
Reinhard Schiemann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The U.K. on Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe (PRACE) Weather-Resolving Simulations of Climate for Global Environmental Risk (UPSCALE) project, using PRACE resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 3 (GA3) configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km), and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high-impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and northwestern Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African easterly waves and the African easterly jet. However, the intensity of the modeled tropical cyclones as measured by 10-m wind speed remains weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50% in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, whereas in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more strong storms.

Projected Changes in the Occurrence of Extreme and Rogue Waves in Future Climate in the North Atlantic

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Odin Gramstad ◽  
Elzbieta Bitner-Gregersen ◽  
Erik Vanem
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Wave Spectrum ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Rogue Waves ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The North ◽  
Wave Parameters ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Atlantic

We investigate the future wave climate in the North Atlantic with respect to extreme events as well as on wave parameters that have previously not been considered in much details in the perspective of wave climate change, such as those associated with occurrence of rogue waves. A number of future wave projections is obtained by running the third generation wave model WAM with wind input derived from several global circulation models. In each case the wave model has been run for the 30-year historical period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100 assuming the two different future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The wave model runs have been carried out by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute in Bergen, and the climate model result are taken from The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 - CMIP5. In addition to the standard wave parameters such as significant wave height and peak period the wave model runs provided the full two-dimensional wave spectrum. This has enabled the study of a larger set of wave parameters. The focus of the present study is the projected future changes in occurrence of extreme sea states and extreme and rogue waves. The investigations are limited to parameters related to this in a few selected locations in the North Atlantic. Our results show that there are large uncertainties in many of the parameters considered in this study, and in many cases the different climate models and different model scenarios provide contradicting results with respect to the predicted change from past to future climate. There are, however, some situations for which a clearer tendency is observed.

POLAND IN DEVELOPING EUROPEAN SECURITY SYSTEM – MILITARY ASPECT

2011 ◽  
Vol 161 (3) ◽  
pp. 25-44
Author(s):  
Marek KULCZYCKI
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Security System ◽  
The European Union ◽  
European Security ◽  
The North ◽  
European Area ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Military Activity ◽  
Military Units

The article describes Poland’s involvement in the activities of three organisations: NATO, EU and OSCE, which constitute the basis of the European security system. This activity has been shown over the last two decades, from the early 1990s until today. The author of the article describes the employment of Polish military units in the operations conducted by the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union in the European area as well as the civil and military activity in the missions conducted by OSCE. The article also mentions the Polish contribution to maintaining security on our continent.

scholarly journals NATO Summit in Wales: From global megatrends to the new Euro-Atlanticism

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (71) ◽  
pp. 11-41
Author(s):  
Lidija Čehulić Vukadinović ◽  
Monika Begović
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Organization ◽  
Military Force ◽  
European Security ◽  
Political Dimension ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Numerous representatives of theories of international relations, security theories or alliance theories have examined the new role of the North Atlantic Alliance or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the post-bipolar world. Parallel with the theoretical examination of goals and tasks, NATO has transformed itself in practice, following the realities of the contemporary global era. In trying to achieve and keep the primacy of the strongest military- political organization, the Alliance has - especially in the Strategic Concept adopted in Lisbon in 2010-set the normative and institutional foundations of its global engagement, fulfilling the military (hard) and a wide array of non-military (soft) security challenges. This strategy has given rise to "Euro-Atlanticism", as a subsystem of international relations based on strong American-European relations, to fit with the process of regionalization of global politics. However, the 2013-2014 crisis in Ukraine has turned the focus of interest and activities of NATO once again primarily to Europe and it has stressed the importance and necessity of strengthening Euro-Atlantic security and defence ties. The most powerful member of the Alliance, the United States, is again strongly engaged in Europe and Russia, as a kind of successor to the Soviet Union, is once more detected as a major threat to European security. There have been many aspects of theories of international relations that have tried to explain the dynamic of the post-Cold War international community. However, the approach based on neo-realistic assumptions of the role of a security community, collective defence and the use of military force has proved to be dominant. NATO will continue to work on its political dimension as an alliance of the democratic world and the September 2014 Wales Summit will certainly mark the return of NATO to its roots, strengthening its security and military dimensions in the collective defence of Europe from Russia.

Overlapping Institutions in the Realm of International Security: The Case of NATO and ESDP

2009 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie C. Hofmann
Keyword(s):  
Crisis Management ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
International Security ◽  
The Other ◽  
European Security ◽  
Policy Space ◽  
Feedback Effects ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union's (EU) European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) both occupy the policy space of crisis management. This overlap has two effects. First, overlap has generated “chessboard politics” shaping member state strategies. Second, institutional overlap has generated a number of feedback effects. The prior existence of NATO shaped the conceptualization and organization of ESDP at its creation, and the existence of two alternative security institutions continues to influence the ways that the institutions evolve—how each institution defines security interests and how member states adjust the mandate of each institution to address changes in the security environment. Because both institutions are intergovernmentally organized and consensus-based, the actions and decisions of both institutions reflect the agreements of members. Chessboard politics and feedback effects are consequently interrelated—states strategize to affect outcomes in one venue or another, and decisions in one institution can affect decisions and behaviors in the other institution.

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