Predictive Validity of the DYRA and SAFVR: New Zealand Police’s Family Violence Risk Assessment Instruments

2021 ◽  
pp. 009385482199752
Author(s):  
Apriel D. Jolliffe Simpson ◽  
Chaitanya I. Joshi ◽  
Devon L. L. Polaschek
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Family Violence ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Family Relationship ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Police Responses

Rapid access to accurate risk assessment information is essential for effective police responses to family violence (FV) calls for service. This study describes the predictive validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment (DYRA) for family violence and Static Assessment of Family Violence Recidivism (SAFVR), currently in use by the New Zealand Police. We used 1,817 police reports of FV episodes to predict recurrence (i.e., repeat call for police service) over three follow-up periods. Regardless of follow-up, the DYRA and SAFVR each displayed poor ability to discriminate between episodes with and without a recurrence. Both instruments substantially over-predicted recurrence and performed relatively consistently across subsamples (e.g., intimate partners vs. other family relationship; aggressor gender, ethnicity, age). The especially poor performance of the DYRA suggests further research on dynamic risk factors and their contribution to police responses for FV is needed to make these instruments more useful for agencies working with families.

scholarly journals Assessing women’s risk of recidivism: An investigation into the predictive validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) with matched samples of community-sentenced women and men

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jessica Scanlan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Gender Neutral ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Matched Samples

<p>Although men and women share risk factors for offending, some scholars claim these factors operate differentially by gender and that certain proposed women-specific risk factors are neglected in the existing gender-neutral risk assessment tools. The present research evaluated one such gender-neutral risk assessment tool used by New Zealand Department of Corrections: The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR; Serin, 2007; Serin, Mailloux, & Wilson, 2012). The research was comparative and examined the predictive validity of the DRAOR for breaches of sentence and criminal reconvictions in matched samples of New Zealand women and men who had served community supervision sentences. Cox regression and AUC analyses showed the initial DRAOR had mixed predictive validity and the proximal DRAOR comparative predictive validity across gender. Additionally, the proximal DRAOR assessment consistently outperformed the initial DRAOR in the prediction of reconvictions for both women and men. Further, offenders made significant change on the DRAOR between two assessment points and overall the change made on the DRAOR was significantly related to reconvictions for women and men. For both samples, the RoC*RoI did not predict breach reconvictions; however, the proximal DRAOR TS provided incremental predictive validity above the RoC*RoI for criminal reconvictions. To conclude, the research supports the continued use of the DRAOR as a risk prediction tool with community-sentenced women and men and thus supports gender neutrality. Further, the research supports the dynamic nature of the DRAOR and highlighted the importance of updating dynamic risk assessments. Additionally, the research recommends that change made on a dynamic risk assessment tool over time be considered useful for predictive purposes for women and men alike.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing women’s risk of recidivism: An investigation into the predictive validity of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) with matched samples of community-sentenced women and men

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jessica Scanlan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Gender Neutral ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Matched Samples

<p>Although men and women share risk factors for offending, some scholars claim these factors operate differentially by gender and that certain proposed women-specific risk factors are neglected in the existing gender-neutral risk assessment tools. The present research evaluated one such gender-neutral risk assessment tool used by New Zealand Department of Corrections: The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR; Serin, 2007; Serin, Mailloux, & Wilson, 2012). The research was comparative and examined the predictive validity of the DRAOR for breaches of sentence and criminal reconvictions in matched samples of New Zealand women and men who had served community supervision sentences. Cox regression and AUC analyses showed the initial DRAOR had mixed predictive validity and the proximal DRAOR comparative predictive validity across gender. Additionally, the proximal DRAOR assessment consistently outperformed the initial DRAOR in the prediction of reconvictions for both women and men. Further, offenders made significant change on the DRAOR between two assessment points and overall the change made on the DRAOR was significantly related to reconvictions for women and men. For both samples, the RoC*RoI did not predict breach reconvictions; however, the proximal DRAOR TS provided incremental predictive validity above the RoC*RoI for criminal reconvictions. To conclude, the research supports the continued use of the DRAOR as a risk prediction tool with community-sentenced women and men and thus supports gender neutrality. Further, the research supports the dynamic nature of the DRAOR and highlighted the importance of updating dynamic risk assessments. Additionally, the research recommends that change made on a dynamic risk assessment tool over time be considered useful for predictive purposes for women and men alike.</p>

scholarly journals Improving risk management for violence in mental health services: a multimethods approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (16) ◽  
pp. 1-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy W Coid ◽  
Simone Ullrich ◽  
Constantinos Kallis ◽  
Mark Freestone ◽  
Rafael Gonzalez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Research Programme ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Dynamic Risk

BackgroundMental health professionals increasingly carry out risk assessments to prevent future violence by their patients. However, there are problems with accuracy and these assessments do not always translate into successful risk management.ObjectivesOur aim was to improve the accuracy of assessment and identify risk factors that are causal to be targeted by clinicians to ensure good risk management. Our objectives were to investigate key risks at the population level, construct new static and dynamic instruments, test validity and construct new models of risk management using Bayesian networks.Methods and resultsWe utilised existing data sets from two national and commissioned a survey to identify risk factors at the population level. We confirmed that certain mental health factors previously thought to convey risk were important in future assessments and excluded others from subsequent parts of the study. Using a first-episode psychosis cohort, we constructed a risk assessment instrument for men and women and showed important sex differences in pathways to violence. We included a 1-year follow-up of patients discharged from medium secure services and validated a previously developed risk assessment guide, the Medium Security Recidivism Assessment Guide (MSRAG). We found that it is essential to combine ratings from static instruments such as the MSRAG with dynamic risk factors. Static levels of risk have important modifying effects on dynamic risk factors for their effects on violence and we further demonstrated this using a sample of released prisoners to construct risk assessment instruments for violence, robbery, drugs and acquisitive convictions. We constructed a preliminary instrument including dynamic risk measures and validated this in a second large data set of released prisoners. Finally, we incorporated findings from the follow-up of psychiatric patients discharged from medium secure services and two samples of released prisoners to construct Bayesian models to guide clinicians in risk management.ConclusionsRisk factors for violence identified at the population level, including paranoid delusions and anxiety disorder, should be integrated in risk assessments together with established high-risk psychiatric morbidity such as substance misuse and antisocial personality disorder. The incorporation of dynamic factors resulted in improved accuracy, especially when combined in assessments using actuarial measures to obtain levels of risk using static factors. It is important to continue developing dynamic risk and protective measures with the aim of identifying factors that are causally related to violence. Only causal factors should be targeted in violence prevention interventions. Bayesian networks show considerable promise in developing software for clinicians to identify targets for intervention in the field. The Bayesian models developed in this programme are at the prototypical stage and require further programmer development into applications for use on tablets. These should be further tested in the field and then compared with structured professional judgement in a randomised controlled trial in terms of their effectiveness in preventing future violence.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research programme.

Predictive Accuracy of Dynamic Risk Factors for Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal Sex Offenders

2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 856-876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Helmus ◽  
Kelly M. Babchishin ◽  
Julie Blais
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Relationship Stability ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Aboriginal Offenders

Although Aboriginal offenders are overrepresented in Canadian prisons, there is limited research examining the extent to which commonly used risk factors and risk scales are applicable to Aboriginals. Aboriginal ( n = 88) and non-Aboriginal ( n = 509) sex offenders on community supervision were compared on the dynamic risk factors of STABLE-2007. Data on sexual, violent, any crime, and any recidivism (including breaches) were collected with an average follow-up of 3.4 years. Aboriginal offenders scored significantly higher than non-Aboriginal offenders on STABLE-2007 total scores and on several items measuring general criminality. STABLE-2007 did not significantly predict recidivism with Aboriginal offenders (although it did for non-Aboriginals). The general antisociality items were generally significantly less predictive for Aboriginals than non-Aboriginals, whereas items assessing sexual self-regulation and relationship stability predicted similarly for both groups. These exploratory results suggest that Aboriginal sex offenders are a higher-needs group but that some STABLE-2007 items are not predictive with this population.

Predictive validity of the START with intellectually disabled offenders

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andy Inett ◽  
Grace Wright ◽  
Louise Roberts ◽  
Anne Sheeran
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Physical Aggression ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Characteristic Analysis ◽  
Property Damage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Dynamic Risk

Purpose – Offenders with intellectual disability (ID) have been largely neglected in past forensic literature on assessment of dynamic risk factors. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the predictive validity of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START), in a sample of males with IDs in a low-secure hospital (n=28). Design/methodology/approach – A prospective analysis was conducted, with START scores as the predictor variables, and the number of recorded aversive incidents as the outcome measure. Findings – Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that total START risk scores had a significant high predictive accuracy for incidents of physical aggression to others (area under the curve (AUC)=0.710, p<0.001) and property damage/theft (AUC=0.730, p<0.001), over a 30-day period, reducing to medium predictive validity over a 90-day period. Medium predictive validity was also identified for incidents of verbal aggression, suicide, self-harm, and stalking and intimidation. START strength scores were also predictive of overt aggression (AUC=0.716), possible reasons for this are explored. Research limitations/implications – The small sample size limits the generalisability of the findings, and further research is required. Practical implications – The paper offers preliminary support for the use of the START with ID offenders in low-secure settings. Given the lack of validation of any previous dynamic risk assessment tools, multi-disciplinary teams in such settings now have the option to use a tool which has potentially good validity with an ID population. Originality/value – This study represents the first attempt to examine the predictive validity of the START with ID offenders, and a step forward in the understanding of dynamic risk factors for violence in this population. The significant predictive relationship with incidents of physical aggression and property damage offers clinicians a preliminary evidence base supporting its use in low-secure settings.

scholarly journals Risky Business: Evaluating the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry for Use with New Zealand Youth

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jonathan Muirhead
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Community Supervision ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Continued Use ◽  
Criminal Conduct ◽  
Risky Business ◽  
Risk Scale

<p>An important assumption that decisions based on criminal risk assessments rely on is that our assessments of someone’s likelihood of reoffending are accurate. It is well known that young people share many risk factors for criminal conduct with adults, but there is also research to suggest that some factors may be more important at different ages. This research examined how well an adult dynamic risk assessment tool, The Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR), was able to predict any new criminal conviction as well as any new violent conviction in a sample of New Zealand youth (17-19 years) serving community supervision sentences. It was found that DRAOR scores were moderately strong predictors of future criminal conduct for youth, with better results being found for any reconvictions compared to violent reconvictions. The more recent an assessment was, the more accurate it was too. It was also found that those who did not go on to be reconvicted showed greater improvements on the risk scale throughout the course of their sentence than those who were reconvicted. These findings support the continued use of the DRAOR for youth in New Zealand who are serving community supervision sentences.</p>

Risk Assessment

Criminology ◽  
2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashley A. Pritchard ◽  
Adam J. E. Blanchard ◽  
Kevin S. Douglas
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Psychiatric Patients ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Professional Judgment ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Violence Risk Assessment ◽  
Dynamic Risk Factors ◽  
Forensic Patients ◽  
Empirically Supported

Violence risk assessment is the process of identifying the level of risk for future violence posed by offenders, forensic patients, and civil psychiatric patients. In each such context, whether persons are detained or released into the community is a decision governed by law. The field of violence risk assessment has witnessed tremendous growth over the past several decades. With few exceptions, its use in numerous legal settings has been upheld by courts, and in some cases professionals have positive duties to conduct risk assessments and protect potential victims. After early research findings suggesting very poor performance of clinicians in predicting violence, a great deal of research has focused on improving risk assessment. Several hundred studies have now been conducted on structured approaches to risk assessment (e.g., actuarial prediction, structured professional judgment). Similarly, a great amount of scientific attention has been paid to identifying empirically supported violence risk factors. More recently, scholars have been focusing on identifying so-called dynamic risk factors, or those that are changeable and of most relevance to intervention. Current themes in risk assessment include focusing on how risk assessment can inform risk management and risk reduction and how best to integrate risk assessment technology into actual practice.

scholarly journals Assessing Youth Who Sexually Offended

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi Meng Chu ◽  
Kynaston Ng ◽  
June Fong ◽  
Jennifer Teoh
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Sexual Offender ◽  
Male Youth ◽  
Assessment Protocol ◽  
Clinical Rating ◽  
Assessment Measures ◽  
Sexually Offended

Recent research suggested that the predictive validity of adult sexual offender risk assessment measures can be affected when used cross-culturally, but there is no published study on the predictive validity of risk assessment measures for youth who sexually offended in a non-Western context. This study compared the predictive validity of three youth risk assessment measures (i.e., the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism [ERASOR], the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II [J-SOAP-II], and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory [YLS/CMI]) for sexual and nonviolent recidivism in a sample of 104 male youth who sexually offended within a Singaporean context ( Mfollow-up = 1,637 days; SDfollow-up = 491). Results showed that the ERASOR overall clinical rating and total score significantly predicted sexual recidivism but only the former significantly predicted time to sexual reoffense. All of the measures (i.e., the ERASOR overall clinical rating and total score, the J-SOAP-II total score, as well as the YLS/CMI) significantly predicted nonsexual recidivism and time to nonsexual reoffense for this sample of youth who sexually offended. Overall, the results suggest that the ERASOR appears to be suited for assessing youth who sexually offended in a non-Western context, but the J-SOAP-II and the YLS/CMI have limited utility for such a purpose.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document