scholarly journals Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Winter Precipitation and Drought during Years of Neutral ENSO in the Western United States

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 116-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory B. Goodrich
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Area Of Influence ◽  
Hydroclimatic Variables

Abstract The influence of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on important hydroclimatic variables during years of neutral ENSO for 84 climate divisions in the western United States is analyzed from 1925 to 1998. When the 34 neutral ENSO years are split by cold (12 yr) and warm (22 yr) PDOs, the resulting winter precipitation patterns are spatially similar to those that occur during years of La Niña–cold PDO and, to a lesser extent, years of El Niño–warm PDO, respectively, although the characteristic ENSO dipole is not evident. The PDO influence is similar when the winter Palmer drought severity index is analyzed, although the core area of influence moves from the Southwest to the northern Rockies. Correlations between Niño-3.4 SSTs and the hydroclimatic variables reverse sign when the neutral ENSO years are split by PDO phase. The greatest difference between correlations occurs in the characteristic dipole between the Pacific Northwest and the desert Southwest. Since seasonal forecast guidance based on ENSO conditions in the tropical Pacific often yields a forecast of “equal chances” during years of neutral ENSO, forecasters may be able to improve their forecasts for the southwestern United States depending on if the PDO is known to be in the cold (drier than normal) or warm (wetter than normal) phase. However, this can be difficult to implement considering the current uncertainty of the phase of the PDO.

Seasonal Cycle Shifts in Hydroclimatology over the Western United States

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Kumar Regonda ◽  
Balaji Rajagopalan ◽  
Martyn Clark ◽  
John Pitlick
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Northwest Region

Abstract Analyses of streamflow, snow mass temperature, and precipitation in snowmelt-dominated river basins in the western United States indicate an advance in the timing of peak spring season flows over the past 50 years. Warm temperature spells in spring have occurred much earlier in recent years, which explains in part the trend in the timing of the spring peak flow. In addition, a decrease in snow water equivalent and a general increase in winter precipitation are evident for many stations in the western United States. It appears that in recent decades more of the precipitation is coming as rain rather than snow. The trends are strongest at lower elevations and in the Pacific Northwest region, where winter temperatures are closer to the melting point; it appears that in this region in particular, modest shifts in temperature are capable of forcing large shifts in basin hydrologic response. It is speculated that these trends could be potentially a manifestation of the general global warming trend in recent decades and also due to enhanced ENSO activity. The observed trends in hydroclimatology over the western United States can have significant impacts on water resources planning and management.

Interannual Variability of the Cyclonic Activity along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Influences on the Characteristics of Winter Precipitation in the Western United States

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (21) ◽  
pp. 5732-5747 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boksoon Myoung ◽  
Yi Deng
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Pacific Coast ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Cyclonic Activity ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The U.S

Abstract This study examines the observed interannual variability of the cyclonic activity along the U.S. Pacific coast and quantifies its impact on the characteristics of both the winter total and extreme precipitation in the western United States. A cyclonic activity function (CAF) was derived from a dataset of objectively identified cyclone tracks in 27 winters (1979/80–2005/06). The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) of the CAF was found to be responsible for the EOF1 of the winter precipitation in the western United States, which is a monopole mode centered over the Pacific Northwest and northern California. On the other hand, the EOF2 of the CAF contributes to the EOF2 of the winter precipitation, which indicates that above-normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and its immediate inland regions tends to be accompanied by below-normal precipitation in California and the southwestern United States and vice versa. The first two EOFs of CAF (precipitation) account for about 70% (78%) of the total interannual variance of CAF (precipitation). The second EOF modes of both the CAF and precipitation are significantly linked to the ENSO signal on interannual time scales. A composite analysis further reveals that the leading CAF modes increase (decrease) the winter total precipitation by increasing (decreasing) both the number of rainy days per winter and the extremeness of precipitation. The latter was quantified in terms of the 95th percentile of the daily rain rate and the probability of precipitation being heavy given a rainy day. The implications of the leading CAF modes for the water resources and the occurrence of extreme hydrologic events in the western United States, as well as their dynamical linkages to the Pacific storm track and various atmospheric low-frequency modes (i.e., teleconnection patterns), are also discussed.

Three Recent Flavors of Drought in the Pacific Northwest

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (9) ◽  
pp. 2058-2068 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin A. Bumbaco ◽  
Philip W. Mote
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Hydrologic Impacts ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In common with much of the western United States, the Pacific Northwest (defined in this paper as Washington and Oregon) has experienced an unusual number of droughts in the past decade. This paper describes three of these droughts in terms of the precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture anomalies, and discusses different drought impacts experienced in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). For the first drought, in 2001, low winter precipitation in the PNW produced very low streamflow that primarily affected farmers and hydropower generation. For the second, in 2003, low summer precipitation in Washington (WA), and low summer precipitation and a warm winter in Oregon (OR) primarily affected streamflow and forests. For the last, in 2005, a lack of snowpack due to warm temperatures during significant winter precipitation events in WA, and low winter precipitation in OR, had a variety of different agricultural and hydrologic impacts. Although the proximal causes of droughts are easily quantified, the ultimate causes are not as clear. Better precipitation observations in the PNW are required to provide timely monitoring of conditions leading to droughts to improve prediction in the future.

Identification of Resistance to Powdery Mildew in Publicly Available Male Hop Germplasm

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 258-264
Author(s):  
David H. Gent ◽  
Briana J. Claassen ◽  
Megan C. Twomey ◽  
Sierra N. Wolfenbarger
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Powdery Mildew ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Western United States ◽  
R Genes ◽  
Sources Of Resistance ◽  
Department Of Agriculture ◽  
Breeding Programs ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The U.S

Powdery mildew (caused by Podosphaera macularis) is one of the most important diseases of hop in the western United States. Strains of the fungus virulent on cultivars possessing the resistance factor termed R6 and the cultivar Cascade have become widespread in the Pacific Northwestern United States, the primary hop producing region in the country, rendering most cultivars grown susceptible to the disease at some level. In an effort to identify potential sources of resistance in extant germplasm, 136 male accessions of hop contained in the U.S. Department of Agriculture collection were screened under controlled conditions. Iterative inoculations with three isolates of P. macularis with varying race identified 23 (16.9%) accessions with apparent resistance to all known races of the pathogen present in the Pacific Northwest. Of the 23 accessions, 12 were resistant when inoculated with three additional isolates obtained from Europe that possess novel virulences. The nature of resistance in these individuals is unclear but does not appear to be based on known R genes. Identification of possible novel sources of resistance to powdery mildew will be useful to hop breeding programs in the western United States and elsewhere.

scholarly journals Seasonal Precipitation Influences Streamflow Vulnerability to the 2015 Drought in the Western United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 1261-1274
Author(s):  
Christopher P. Konrad
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Order Model ◽  
First Order ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Critical Issues ◽  
Desert Southwest ◽  
Normative Models

Abstract Streamflow was exceptionally low in the spring and summer of 2015 across much of the western United States because of a regional drought that exploited the sensitivity of both snow- and rain-dominant rivers. Streamflow during 2015 was examined at 324 gauges in the region to assess its response to the amount, form, and seasonal timing of precipitation and the viability of using spatially aggregated, normative models to assess streamflow vulnerability to drought. Seasonal rain and spring snowmelt had the strongest effects on runoff during the same season, but their effects persisted into subsequent seasons as well. Below-normal runoff in the spring of 2015 was pervasive across the region, while distinct seasonal responses were evident in different hydroclimatic settings: January–March (winter) runoff was above normal in most snow-dominant rivers and runoff in all seasons was above normal for much of the desert Southwest. Summer precipitation contributed to summer runoff in both the Pacific Northwest and desert Southwest. A first-order model that presumes runoff is a constant fraction of precipitation (the precipitation elasticity of runoff, E = 1) could be used for assessing and forecasting runoff responses to precipitation deficits across the region, but runoff generally is more vulnerable to drought (E > 1) than predicted by a first-order model. Uncertainty in spring and summer precipitation forecasts remain critical issues for forecasting and predicting summer streamflow vulnerability to drought across much of the western United States.

Statistical Model for Forecasting Monthly Large Wildfire Events in Western United States

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (7) ◽  
pp. 1020-1030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haiganoush K. Preisler ◽  
Anthony L. Westerling
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Large Fire ◽  
Confidence Bounds ◽  
Regression Techniques

Abstract The ability to forecast the number and location of large wildfire events (with specified confidence bounds) is important to fire managers attempting to allocate and distribute suppression efforts during severe fire seasons. This paper describes the development of a statistical model for assessing the forecasting skills of fire-danger predictors and producing 1-month-ahead wildfire-danger probabilities in the western United States. The method is based on logistic regression techniques with spline functions to accommodate nonlinear relationships between fire-danger predictors and probability of large fire events. Estimates were based on 25 yr of historic fire occurrence data (1980–2004). The model using the predictors monthly average temperature, and lagged Palmer drought severity index demonstrated significant improvement in forecasting skill over historic frequencies (persistence forecasts) of large fire events. The statistical models were particularly amenable to model evaluation and production of probability-based fire-danger maps with prespecified precisions. For example, during the 25 yr of the study for the month of July, an area greater than 400 ha burned in 3% of locations where the model forecast was low; 11% of locations where the forecast was moderate; and 76% of locations where the forecast was extreme. The statistical techniques may be used to assess the skill of forecast fire-danger indices developed at other temporal or spatial scales.

scholarly journals Prediction of Summer Maximum and Minimum Temperature over the Central and Western United States: The Roles of Soil Moisture and Sea Surface Temperature

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1407-1421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric J. Alfaro ◽  
Alexander Gershunov ◽  
Daniel Cayan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Predictive Skill

Abstract A statistical model based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to explore climatic associations and predictability of June–August (JJA) maximum and minimum surface air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as the frequency of Tmax daily extremes (Tmax90) in the central and western United States (west of 90°W). Explanatory variables are monthly and seasonal Pacific Ocean SST (PSST) and the Climate Division Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during 1950–2001. Although there is a positive correlation between Tmax and Tmin, the two variables exhibit somewhat different patterns and dynamics. Both exhibit their lowest levels of variability in summer, but that of Tmax is greater than Tmin. The predictability of Tmax is mainly associated with local effects related to previous soil moisture conditions at short range (one month to one season), with PSST providing a secondary influence. Predictability of Tmin is more strongly influenced by large-scale (PSST) patterns, with PDSI acting as a short-range predictive influence. For both predictand variables (Tmax and Tmin), the PDSI influence falls off markedly at time leads beyond a few months, but a PSST influence remains for at least two seasons. The maximum predictive skill for JJA Tmin, Tmax, and Tmax90 is from May PSST and PDSI. Importantly, skills evaluated for various seasons and time leads undergo a seasonal cycle that has maximum levels in summer. At the seasonal time frame, summer Tmax prediction skills are greatest in the Midwest, northern and central California, Arizona, and Utah. Similar results were found for Tmax90. In contrast, Tmin skill is spread over most of the western region, except for clusters of low skill in the northern Midwest and southern Montana, Idaho, and northern Arizona.

scholarly journals Human plague in the USA: the importance of regional and local climate

2008 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 737-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamara Ben Ari ◽  
Alexander Gershunov ◽  
Kenneth L Gage ◽  
Tord Snäll ◽  
Paul Ettestad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Yersinia Pestis ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

A 56-year time series of human plague cases ( Yersinia pestis ) in the western United States was used to explore the effects of climatic patterns on plague levels. We found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), together with previous plague levels and above-normal temperatures, explained much of the plague variability. We propose that the PDO's impact on plague is conveyed via its effect on precipitation and temperature and the effect of precipitation and temperature on plague hosts and vectors: warmer and wetter climate leading to increased plague activity and thus an increased number of human cases. Our analysis furthermore provides insights into the consistency of plague mechanisms at larger scales.

scholarly journals Evidence for Increasingly Variable Drought Conditions in the United States Since 1895

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sierra Rayne ◽  
Kaya Forest
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Rapid Changes ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
End Members ◽  
Short Time

Annual and summertime trends towards increasingly variable values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over a sub-decadal period (five years) were investigated within the contiguous United States between 1895 and the present. For the contiguous U.S. as a whole, there is a significant increasing trend in the five-year running minimum-maximum ranges for the annual PDSI (aPDSI5yr(min|max range)). During this time frame, the averageaPDSI5yr(min|max range)has increased by about one full unit, indicating a substantial increase is drought variability over short time scales across the United States. The end members of the runningaPDSI5yr(min|max range)highlight even more rapid changes in the drought index variability within the past 120 years. This increasing variability in theaPDSI5yr(min|max range)is driven primarily by changes taking place in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean coastal climate regions, climate regions which collectively comprise one-third the area of the contiguous U.S. Overall, interannual drought patterns are becoming more extreme and difficult to predict, posing a challenge to agricultural and other water-resource related planning efforts.

First Report of Powdery Mildew of Magnolia Caused by Microsphaera magnifica (Erysiphe magnifica) in the Pacific Northwest

2003 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Dean A. Glawe
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Powdery Mildew ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Western United States ◽  
First Report ◽  
Landscape Plant ◽  
First Finding ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
First Time

Magnolia liliiflora Desrousseaux in Lamarck (orthographic variant: M. liliiflora), a species thought to have originated in China (3), is used as a landscape plant in North America. In August 2002, Microsphaera magnifica U. Braun was collected from three plants of M. liliiflora in the Magnolia collection at the Washington Park Arboretum, University of Washington, Seattle. This report documents for the first time a powdery mildew disease of a Magnolia species in the Pacific Northwest, and the first finding of M. magnifica in the western United States. Accepted for publication 14 April 2003. Published 12 May 2003.

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