scholarly journals A Preliminary Study of Severe Wind-Producing MCSs in Environments of Limited Moisture

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 715-734 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen F. Corfidi ◽  
Sarah J. Corfidi ◽  
David A. Imy ◽  
Allen L. Logan
Keyword(s):  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Composite Surface ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Jet Streaks ◽  
Cell Propagation ◽  
Wind Profiles ◽  
Upper Level Jet ◽  
Limited Moisture

Abstract An examination of severe wind-producing mesoscale convective systems that occur in environments of very limited moisture is presented. Such systems, herein referred to as low-dewpoint derechos (LDDs), are difficult to forecast as they form in regions where the level of convective instability is well below that normally associated with severe convective weather. Using a dataset consisting of 12 LDDs that affected various parts of the continental United States, composite surface and upper-level analyses are constructed. These are used to identify factors that appear to be associated with LDD initiation and sustenance. It is shown that LDDs occur in mean kinematic and thermodynamic patterns notably different from those associated with most derechos. LDDs typically form along or just ahead of cold fronts, in the exit region of strong, upper-level jet streaks. Based on the juxtaposition of features in the composite analysis, it appears that linear forcing for ascent provided by the front, and/or ageostrophic circulations associated with the jet streak, induce the initial convective development where the lower levels are relatively dry, but lapse rates are steep. This convection subsequently grows upscale as storm downdrafts merge. The data further suggest that downstream cell propagation follows in the form of sequential, downwind-directed microbursts. Largely unidirectional wind profiles promote additional downwind-directed storm development and system sustenance until the LDD ultimately moves beyond the region supportive of forced convective initiation.

scholarly journals Study of three days duration coupling between jets in South América

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-248
Author(s):  
Emily Claudia Pereira Ramos ◽  
Luiz Gabriel Cassol Machado ◽  
André Becker Nunes
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Vertical Movements ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Upper Level Jet

It can be understood by coupling between jets when Upper-Level Jet (ULJ) superimposes the Low-Level Jet (L LJ). The literature shows that such couplings tend to generate or intensify surface instabilities. Thus, the objective of this study was to analyze the synoptic configuration and the coupling between the jets associated with storms during the period of October 28-30, 2019, when instabilities hit southern Brazil causing intense precipitation and several damages. This work was carried out through the analysis of meteorological fields employing ERA5 reanalysis data and GOES-16 satellite imagery. The coupling between jets was verified in the three days of study. Upward vertical movements at 500 hPa was observed in the same area of occurrence of the upper level difluent flow, as well as an intense 850 hPa northerly flow, a large amount of moisture due to the action of the Northwestern Argentinean Low, and the presence of a frontal system between Uruguay and RS, except on the first day.  Storms developed east (downstream) of the area where the coupling took place. The coupling was observed before and during the development of the mesoscale convective systems, and its dissipation occurred simultaneously with the storm. However, on the 30th, the peak of coupling did not occur together with the most intense phase of the system, it occurred before.

Multiscale aspects of the 26–27 April 2011 tornado outbreak. Part II: Environmental modifications and upscale feedbacks arising from latent processes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manda B. Chasteen ◽  
Steven E. Koch
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Large Scale Flow ◽  
Jet Streaks ◽  
Upper Level Jet ◽  
Jet Structure ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks ◽  
Jet Streak

AbstractOne of the most prolific tornado outbreaks ever documented occurred on 26–27 April 2011 and comprised three successive episodes of tornadic convection that culminated with the development of numerous long-track, violent tornadoes over the southeastern U.S. during the afternoon of 27 April. This notorious afternoon supercell outbreak was preceded by two quasi-linear convective systems (hereafter QLCS1 and QLCS2), the first of which was an anomalously severe nocturnal system that rapidly grew upscale during the previous evening. In this Part II, we use a series of RUC 1-h forecasts and output from convection-permitting WRF-ARW simulations configured both with and without latent heat release to investigate how environmental modifications and upscale feedbacks produced by the two QLCSs contributed to the evolution and exceptional severity of this multi-episode outbreak.QLCS1 was primarily responsible for amplifying the large-scale flow pattern, inducing two upper-level jet streaks, and promoting secondary surface cyclogenesis downstream from the primary baroclinic system. Upper-level divergence markedly increased after QLCS1 developed, which yielded strong isallobaric forcing that rapidly strengthened the low-level jet (LLJ) and vertical wind shear over the warm sector and contributed to the system’s upscale growth and notable severity. Moreover, QLCS2 modified the mesoscale environment prior to the supercell outbreak by promoting the downstream formation of a pronounced upper-level jet streak, altering the midlevel jet structure, and furthering the development of a highly ageostrophic LLJ over the Southeast. Collectively, the flow modifications produced by both QLCSs contributed to the notably favorable shear profiles present during the afternoon supercell outbreak.

scholarly journals Derecho and MCS Development, Evolution, and Multiscale Interactions during 3–5 July 2003

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (8) ◽  
pp. 3048-3070 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas D. Metz ◽  
Lance F. Bosart
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Surface Boundary ◽  
Initial Surface ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Upper Level Jet

Abstract From 3 to 5 July 2003 during the Bow Echo and Mesoscale Convective Vortex Experiment (BAMEX), multiple mesoscale convective systems (MCSs 1 and 2) and derechos (derechos AN, AS, A, BW, and BE) progressed across a preferred upper Midwest corridor. The derechos evolved in a favorable synoptic-scale environment. However, the environmental details associated with each derecho, such as the characteristics of the initial surface boundary, the formation position relative to the upper-level jet stream, the presence of an upper-level mesoscale disturbance, and the CAPE/shear environment varied from derecho to derecho. The MCSs and derechos composed three distinct convective episodes. Multiple mesoscale interactions between the MCSs and derechos and the environment altered the character and longevity of these episodes. The first convective episode consisted of derecho A, which formed from merging derechos AN and AS (northern and southern systems, respectively). The ∼200-hPa-deep cold pool associated with derecho A decreased surface potential temperatures by 4–8 K. MCS 1 dissipated upon entering this cold pool and an inertia–gravity wave was emitted that helped to spawn MCS 2. This inertia–gravity wave connected MCSs 1 and 2 into a compound convective episode. As derecho BW (western system) approached a strong surface boundary across Iowa created by the cold pools of derecho A and MCS 1, derecho BE (eastern system) formed. The remnants of derecho BW merged with derecho BE creating another compound convective episode. The upscale effects resulting from this active convective period directly affected subsequent convective development. Upper-level diabatic heating associated with derecho A resulted in NCEP GFS 66-h negative 1000–500-hPa thickness errors of 4–8 dam (forecast too cold) and negative 200-hPa wind errors of 10–20 m s−1 (forecast too weak). The resulting stronger than forecast 200-hPa jet stream likely increased synoptic-scale forcing for the formation and evolution of derecho BW.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Convective Systems: A Case Scenario of the ‘Heavy Rainfall’ Event of 15–20 January 2013 over Southern Africa

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
Modise Wiston ◽  
Kgakgamatso Marvel Mphale
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Event ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Upper Level

Southern east Africa is prone to some extreme weather events and interannual variability of the hydrological cycle, including tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall events. Most of these events occur during austral summer and are linked to shifts in the intertropical convergence zone, changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation signatures, sea surface temperature and sea level pressure. A typical example include mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that occur between October and March along the eastern part, adjacent to the warm waters of Mozambique Channel and Agulhas Current. In this study we discuss a heavy rainfall event over southern Africa, focusing particularly on the period 15–20 January 2013, the period during which MCSs were significant over the subcontinent. This event recorded one of the historic rainfalls due to extreme flooding and overflows, loss of lives and destruction of economic and social infrastructure. An active South Indian Convergence Zone was associated with the rainfall event sustained by a low-level trough linked to a Southern Hemisphere planetary wave pattern and an upper-level ridge over land. In addition, also noteworthy is a seemingly strong connection to the strength of the African Easterly Jet stream. Using rainfall data, satellite imagery and re-analysis (model processed data combined with observations) data, our analysis indicates that there was a substantial relation between rainfall totals recorded/observed and the presence of MCSs. The low-level trough and upper-level ridge contributed to moisture convergence, particularly from tropical South East Atlantic Ocean, which in turn contributed to the prolonged life span of the rainfall event. Positive temperature anomalies favored the substantial contribution of moisture fluxes from the Atlantic Ocean. This study provides a contextual assessment of rainfall processes and insight into the physical control mechanisms and feedback of large-scale convective interactions over tropical southern Africa.

scholarly journals Observational Analysis of the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 813-838 ◽  
Author(s):  
Israel L. Jirak ◽  
William R. Cotton
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) have a large influence on the weather over the central United States during the warm season by generating essential rainfall and severe weather. To gain insight into the predictability of these systems, the precursor environments of several hundred MCSs across the United States were reviewed during the warm seasons of 1996–98. Surface analyses were used to identify initiating mechanisms for each system, and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to examine the environment prior to MCS development. Similarly, environments unable to support organized convective systems were also investigated for comparison with MCS precursor environments. Significant differences were found between environments that support MCS development and those that do not support convective organization. MCSs were most commonly initiated by frontal boundaries; however, features that enhance convective initiation are often not sufficient for MCS development, as the environment needs also to be supportive for the development and organization of long-lived convective systems. Low-level warm air advection, low-level vertical wind shear, and convective instability were found to be the most important parameters in determining whether concentrated convection would undergo upscale growth into an MCS. Based on these results, an index was developed for use in forecasting MCSs. The MCS index assigns a likelihood of MCS development based on three terms: 700-hPa temperature advection, 0–3-km vertical wind shear, and the lifted index. An evaluation of the MCS index revealed that it exhibits features consistent with common MCS characteristics and is reasonably accurate in forecasting MCSs, especially given that convective initiation has occurred, offering the possibility of usefulness in operational forecasting.

The Atmospheric Controls of Extreme Convective Events over the Southern Arabian Peninsula during the Transition Seasons

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narendra Reddy Nelli ◽  
Diana Francis ◽  
Ricardo Fonseca ◽  
Rachid Abida ◽  
Michael Weston ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Arabian Gulf ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Moisture Advection ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Warming World

<p>In this paper, the processes behind severe convective events over the Arabian Peninsula during spring and autumn seasons and their local-scale impacts are investigated using reanalysis data, satellite-derived and observational products. The focus on the transition seasons is justified as Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) are more common at that time of the year, in particular in the months of March and April. The analysis of 48 events from 2000 to 2019 revealed that they are triggered by low-level wind convergence and moisture advection from the Arabian Sea, Arabian Gulf and/or Red Sea. An equatorward displacement and strengthening of the subtropical jet also precondition the environment, as does the presence of a mid-level trough. The latter is generally part of a large-scale pattern of anomalies that are equivalent barotropic in nature, and therefore likely a response to tropical or subtropical forcing. At more local-scales, a drying of the mid-troposphere between 850 and 250 hPa typically by 50%, a reduction of the upper-level winds by about 5 m s<sup>-1</sup>, and an increase in the upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric temperature on averaged by 2-3 K, are typically observed during a MCS event. Over the 20-year period, a statistically significant increase in the MCSs’ spatial extent, intensity and duration over the UAE and surrounding region has been found, suggesting that such extreme events may be even more impactful in a hypothetical warming world. The rainfall they generate, on the other hand, shows an increase that is not statistically significant.</p>

scholarly journals A 10-Yr Climatology Relating the Locations of Reported Tornadoes to the Quadrants of Upper-Level Jet Streaks

2004 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 301-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanley F. Rose ◽  
Peter V. Hobbs ◽  
John D. Locatelli ◽  
Mark T. Stoelinga
Keyword(s):  
Upper Level ◽  
Jet Streaks ◽  
Upper Level Jet

scholarly journals Mesoscale Convective Systems in Relation to African and Tropical Easterly Jets

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (9) ◽  
pp. 3224-3242 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Besson ◽  
Y. Lemaître
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
African Easterly Jet ◽  
Interaction Processes ◽  
Tropical Easterly Jet ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Jet Streaks

This paper documents the interaction processes between mesoscale convective systems (MCS), the tropical easterly jet (TEJ), and the African easterly jet (AEJ) over West Africa during the monsoon peak of 2006 observed during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) project. The results highlight the importance of the cloud system localization relative to the jets in order to explain their duration and life cycle. A systematical study reveals that intense and long-lived MCSs correspond to a particular pattern where clouds associated with deep convection are located in entrance regions of TEJ and in exit regions of AEJ. A case study on a particularly well-documented convective event characterizes this link and infers the importance of jet streaks in promoting areas of divergence, favoring the persistence of MCSs.

scholarly journals The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclone Edisoana (1990)

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (8) ◽  
pp. 2772-2793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle S. Griffin ◽  
Lance F. Bosart
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Lower Latitude ◽  
Extratropical Transition ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
Half Wavelength ◽  
Lower Amplitude ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Jet Streaks ◽  
Upper Level Jet

Abstract Documentation of southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical transition (ET) events is sparse in the refereed literature. The authors present a climatology of SWIO TC and ET events for 1989–2013. The SWIO averages ~9 tropical cyclones (TCs) per year in this modern era. Of these TCs, ~44% undergo extratropical transition (ET), or ~four per year. A case study of TC Edisoana (1990), the most rapidly intensifying SWIO post-ET TC between 1989 and 2013, shows that extratropical interactions began when an approaching trough embedded in the subtropical jet stream (STJ) induced ET on 7 March. As Edisoana underwent ET, a subtropical ridge downstream amplified in response to poleward-directed positive potential vorticity (PV) advection associated with diabatically (convectively) driven upper-level outflow from TC Edisoana. This amplifying lower-latitude ridge phased with a lower-amplitude higher-latitude ridge embedded in the polar front jet (PFJ), resulting in the merger of the two jets. This ridge phasing and jet merger, combined with the approach of an upstream trough embedded in the PFJ, resulted in a decrease in the half-wavelength between the approaching trough and the downstream phased ridges and provided extratropical cyclone Edisoana with a prime environment for rapid reintensification (RI). Poleward-directed positive PV advection into the phased ridge strengthened the upper-level jet downstream of Edisoana, which provided the primary baroclinic forcing throughout the RI phase. A backward trajectory analysis suggests that strong diabatic heating enhanced favorable synoptic-scale forcing for ascent from the upstream and downstream jet streaks and played a crucial role in the deepening of Edisoana through the ET and RI periods.

scholarly journals Failed Cyclogenetic Evolution of a West African Monsoon Perturbation Observed during AMMA SOP-3

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 1863-1883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joël Arnault ◽  
Frank Roux
Keyword(s):  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Multidisciplinary Analysis ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Monsoon Flow ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
High Pressure Zone

Abstract The so-called “perturbation D” was a nondeveloping West African disturbance observed near Dakar (Senegal) during special observing period (SOP) 3 of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) in September 2006. Its mesoscale environment is described with the dropsonde data obtained during flights on three successive days with the Service des Avions Français Instrumentés pour la Recherche en Environnement Falcon-20 aircraft. Processes involved in this evolution are studied qualitatively with ECMWF reanalyses and Meteosat-9 images. The evolution of perturbation D was the result of an interaction between processes at different scales such as the African easterly jet (AEJ), a midtropospheric African easterly wave (AEW), a series of mesoscale convective systems, the monsoon flow, dry low- to midlevel anticyclonic Saharan air, and a midlatitude upper-level trough. The interaction between these processes is further investigated through a numerical simulation conducted with the French nonhydrostatic Méso-NH model with parameterized convection. The growth of the simulated disturbance is quantified with an energy budget including barotropic and baroclinic conversions of eddy kinetic energy, proposed previously by the authors for a limited domain. The development of the simulated system is found to result from barotropic–baroclinic growth over West Africa and baroclinic growth over the tropical eastern Atlantic. It is suggested that these energy conversions were the result of an adjustment of the wind in response to the pressure decrease, presumably caused by convective activity, and other synoptic processes. A comparison with the developing case of Helene (2006) reveals that both perturbations had similar evolutions over the continent but were associated with different synoptic conditions over the ocean. For perturbation D, the anticyclonic curvature of the AEJ, caused by the intensification of the eastern ridge by a strong flow of dry Saharan air, prohibited the formation of a closed and convergent circulation. Moreover, a midlatitude upper-level trough approaching from the northwest contributed to increase the northward stretching and then weakened the perturbation. It is therefore suggested that at least as important as the intensity of the AEW trough and associated convection leaving the West African continent are synoptic conditions associated with the Saharan heat low, the subtropical high pressure zone, and even the midlatitude circulation, all of which are instrumental in the (non)cyclogenetic evolution of AEWs in the Cape Verde Islands region.

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