scholarly journals Real-Time Forecasting of Snowfall Using a Neural Network

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 676-684 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul J. Roebber ◽  
Melissa R. Butt ◽  
Sarah J. Reinke ◽  
Thomas J. Grafenauer

Abstract A set of 53 snowfall reports was collected in real time from the 2004/05 and 2005/06 cold seasons (November–March). Three snowfall-amount forecast methods were tested: neural network, surface-temperature-based 676-USDT table, and climatological snow ratio. Standard verification methods (mean, median, bias, and root-mean-square error) and a new method that places the forecasts in the context of municipal snow removal, and introduces the concept of forecast credibility, are used. Results suggest that the neural network method performs best for individual events, owing in part to the inverse relationship between melted liquid equivalent and snow ratio; hence, the ongoing difficulty of producing accurate forecasts of melted equivalent precipitation (a problem in all seasons) is compensated for rather than amplified when converting to snowfall amounts. This analysis should be extended to a larger selection of reports, which is anticipated in conjunction with efforts currently ongoing at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
O.N. Cheremisinova ◽  
V.S. Rostovtsev

In any convolutional neural network (CNN), there are hyperparameters - parameters that are not configured during training, but are set at the time of building the СNN model. Their choice affects the quality of the neural network. To date, there are no uniform rules for setting parameters. Hyperparameters can be adjusted fairly accurately using manual tuning. There are also automatic methods for optimizing hyperparameters. Their use reduces the complexity of the neural network tuning, and does not require experience and knowledge of hyperparameter optimization. The purpose of this article is to analyze automatic methods for selecting hyperparameters to reduce the complexity of the process of tuning a CNN. Optimization methods. Several automatic methods for selecting hyperparameters are considered: grid search, random search, modelbased optimization (Bayesian and evolutionary). The most promising are methods based on a certain model. These methods are used in the absence of an expression for the objective optimization function, but it is possible to obtain its observations (possibly with noise) for the selected values. Bayesian theory involves finding a trade-off between exploration (suggesting hyperparameters with high uncertainty that can give a noticeable improvement) and use (suggesting hyperparameters that are likely to work as well as what she has seen before – usually values that are very close to those observed before). Evolutionary optimization is based on the principle of genetic algorithms. A combination of hyperparameter values is taken as an individual of a population, and recognition accuracy on a test sample is taken as a fitness function. By crossing, mutation and selection, the optimal values of the neural network hyperparameters are selected. The authors have proposed a hybrid method, the algorithm of which combines Bayesian and evolutionary optimization. At the beginning, the neural network is tuned using the Bayesian method, then the first generation in the evolutionary method is formed from the N best options of parameters, which further continues the neural network tuning. An experimental study of the optimization of hyperparameters of a convolutional neural network by Bayesian, evolutionary and hybrid methods is carried out. In the process of optimization by the Bayesian method, 112 different architectures of the convolutional neural network were considered, the root-mean-square error on the validation set of which ranged from 1629 to 11503. As a result, the CNN with the smallest error was selected, the RMSE of which on the test data was 55. At the beginning of evolutionary optimization, they were randomly 8 different CNN architectures were generated with the root mean square error on the validation data from 2587 to 3684. In the process of optimization by this method, within 14 generations, CNNs were obtained with new sets of hyperparameters, the error on the validation data of which decreased to values from 1424 to 1812. As a result, the CNN with the smallest error was selected, the RMSE of which was 48 on the test data. The hybrid method combines the advantages of both methods and allows finding an architecture no worse than the Bayesian and evolutionary methods. When optimizing by this method, the optimal architecture of the CNN was obtained (the architecture in which the CNN on the validation data has the smallest root-mean-square error), the RMSE of which on the test data was 49. The results show that the quality of optimization for all three methods is approximately the same. Bayesian approach considers the entire hyperparameter space. To obtain greater accuracy with the Bayesian method, you need to increase the CNN optimization time with this method. The evolutionary algorithm selects the best combinations of hyperparameters from the initial population, so the initially generated population plays a big role. In addition, due to the peculiarities of the algorithm, this method is prone to falling into a local extremum. However, this algorithm is well parallelized, so the optimization process with this method can be accelerated. The hybrid method combines the advantages of both methods and allows you to find an architecture that is no worse than Bayesian and evolutionary methods. The experiments carried out show that the considered optimization methods on problems similar to the one considered will achieve approximately the same quality of neural network tuning with a relatively small size of the CNN. The presented results make it possible to choose one of the considered methods for optimizing hyperparameters when developing a CNN, based on the specifics of the problem being solved and the available resources.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 396-404
Author(s):  
N Cahyani ◽  
Sinta Septi Pangastuti ◽  
K Fithriasari ◽  
Irhamah Irhamah ◽  
N Iriawan

A Neural network is a series of algorithms that endeavours to recognize underlying relationships in a set of data through processes that mimic the way human brains operate. In the case of classification, this method can provide a fit model through various factors, such as the variety of the optimal number of hidden nodes, the variety of relevant input variables, and the selection of optimal connection weights. One popular method to achieve the optimal selection of connection weights is using a Genetic Algorithm (GA), the basic concept is to iterate over Darwin's evolution. This research presents the Neural Network method with the Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN) and the combined method of BPNN with GA, where GA is used to initialize and optimize the connection weight of BPNN. Based on accuracy value, the BPNN method combined with GA provides better classification, which is 90.51%, in the case of Bidikmisi Scholarship classification in East Java.


Author(s):  
A.D. Obukhov ◽  
M.N. Krasnyansky

The problem of automation of the processes of information transmission and processing in adaptive information systems is considered. An analysis of existing approaches to solving this problem showed the prospects of using neural network technologies. A neural network method for processing and transmitting information in adaptive information systems is formulated. The method includes a formalized description of a neural network data channel - a software tool for analysis, data processing and selection of data transfer protocol. The main stages of the proposed method are outlined: classification of the structures of the source data, their transformation, data processing, selection of the necessary protocol for transmitting information. Each of the stages is implemented through neural networks of various architectures. The theoretical rationale of the possibility of using the neural network method is given, obtained on the basis of the proof of a number of theorems. The novelty of the proposed method consists in the transition from an analytical solution of the problems of classification, processing and data transfer to an automated approach using machine learning technologies. The practical significance of the neural network method is to reduce the complexity of the implementation of information processing and transmission processes, to increase the level of automation in the organization of intermodular interaction. The implementation of the neural network method has been assessed using a number of software complexity assessment metrics. The application, virtues and failings of the developed method are analyzed.


Methods for evaluation the manufacturability of a vehicle in the field of production and operation based on an energy indicator, expert estimates and usage of a neural network are stated. By using the neural network method the manufacturability of a car in a complex and for individual units is considered. The preparation of the initial data at usage a neural network for predicting the manufacturability of a vehicle is shown; the training algorithm and the architecture for calculating the manufacturability of the main units are given. According to the calculation results, comparative data on the manufacturability vehicles of various brands are given.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 4758
Author(s):  
Ana Malta ◽  
Mateus Mendes ◽  
Torres Farinha

Maintenance professionals and other technical staff regularly need to learn to identify new parts in car engines and other equipment. The present work proposes a model of a task assistant based on a deep learning neural network. A YOLOv5 network is used for recognizing some of the constituent parts of an automobile. A dataset of car engine images was created and eight car parts were marked in the images. Then, the neural network was trained to detect each part. The results show that YOLOv5s is able to successfully detect the parts in real time video streams, with high accuracy, thus being useful as an aid to train professionals learning to deal with new equipment using augmented reality. The architecture of an object recognition system using augmented reality glasses is also designed.


Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 3389
Author(s):  
Marcin Kamiński ◽  
Krzysztof Szabat

This paper presents issues related to the adaptive control of the drive system with an elastic clutch connecting the main motor and the load machine. Firstly, the problems and the main algorithms often implemented for the mentioned object are analyzed. Then, the control concept based on the RNN (recurrent neural network) for the drive system with the flexible coupling is thoroughly described. For this purpose, an adaptive model inspired by the Elman model is selected, which is related to internal feedback in the neural network. The indicated feature improves the processing of dynamic signals. During the design process, for the selection of constant coefficients of the controller, the PSO (particle swarm optimizer) is applied. Moreover, in order to obtain better dynamic properties and improve work in real conditions, one model based on the ADALINE (adaptive linear neuron) is introduced into the structure. Details of the algorithm used for the weights’ adaptation are presented (including stability analysis) to perform the shaft torque signal filtering. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is examined through simulation and experimental studies.


2013 ◽  
Vol 860-863 ◽  
pp. 2791-2795
Author(s):  
Qian Xiao ◽  
Yu Shan Jiang ◽  
Ru Zheng Cui

Aiming at the large calculation workload of adaptive algorithm in adaptive filter based on wavelet transform, affecting the filtering speed, a wavelet-based neural network adaptive filter is constructed in this paper. Since the neural network has the ability of distributed storage and fast self-evolution, use Hopfield neural network to implement adaptive filter LMS algorithm in this filter so as to improve the speed of operation. The simulation results prove that, the new filter can achieve rapid real-time denoising.


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