scholarly journals The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Simulated in the NCEP Climate Forecast System: The Effect of Sea Surface Temperature

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (5) ◽  
pp. 1807-1827 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyong-Hwan Seo ◽  
Jae-Kyung E. Schemm ◽  
Wanqiu Wang ◽  
Arun Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Northward Propagation ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract Observational evidence has indicated the important role of the interaction of the atmosphere with the sea surface in the development and maintenance of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). However, improvements in ISO simulations with fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are limited and model dependent. This study further examines the effect of air–sea coupling and the basic-state sea surface temperature (SST) associated with the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) in a 21-yr free run with the recently developed NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. For this, the CFS run is compared with an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project–type long-term simulation forced by prescribed SST in the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and flux-corrected version of CFS (referred to as CFSA). The GFS run simulates significantly unorganized BSISO convection anomalies, which exhibit an erroneous standing oscillation. The CFS run with interactive air–sea coupling has limited improvements, including the generation of intraseasonal SST variation preceding the convection anomaly by ∼10 days. However, this simulation still does not show the observed continuous northward propagation over the Indian Ocean due to a cold model bias. The CFSA run removes the cold bias in the Indian Ocean and the simulation of the development and propagation of BSISO anomalies are significantly improved. Enhanced and suppressed convection anomalies exhibit the observed quadrupole-like configuration, and phase relationships between precipitation and surface dynamic and thermodynamic variables for the northward propagation are shown to be coherent and consistent with the observations. It is shown that the surface meridional moisture convergence is an important factor for the northward propagation of the BSISO. On the other hand, both the GFS and CFS runs do not realistically simulate an eastward-propagating equatorial mode. The CFSA run produces a more realistic eastward-propagation mode only over the Indian Ocean and Java Sea due to the improved mean state in SST, low-level winds, and vertical wind shear. Reasons for the failure of farther eastward propagation into the west Pacific in CFSA are discussed. This study reconfirms the significance of air–sea interactions. More importantly, however, the results suggest that in order for the influence of the coupled air–sea interaction to be properly communicated, the mean state SST in the coupled model should be reasonably simulated. This is because the basic-state SST itself acts to sustain BSISO convection and it makes the large-scale dynamical environment (i.e., easterly vertical wind shear or low-level westerly zonal wind) more favorable for the propagation of the moist Rossby–Kelvin wave packet.

scholarly journals Impacts of Ocean Surface on the Northward Propagation of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (24) ◽  
pp. 6561-6576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanqiu Wang ◽  
Mingyue Chen ◽  
Arun Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Latent Heat ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Northward Propagation ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract Impacts of the ocean surface on the representation of the northward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (NPBSISO) over the Indian monsoon region are analyzed using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled atmosphere–ocean Climate Forecast System (CFS) and its atmospheric component, the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). Analyses are based on forecasts of five strong NPBSISO events during June–September 2005–07. The inclusion of an interactive ocean in the model is found to be necessary to maintain the observed NPBSISO. The atmosphere-only GFS is capable of maintaining the convection that propagates from the equator to 12°N with reasonable amplitude within the first 15 days, after which the anomalies become very weak, suggesting that the atmospheric internal dynamics alone are not sufficient to sustain the anomalies to propagate to higher latitudes. Forecasts of the NPBSISO in the CFS are more realistic, with the amplitude of precipitation and 850-mb zonal wind anomalies comparable to that in observations for the entire 30-day target period, but with slower northward propagation compared to that observed. Further, the phase relationship between precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and surface latent heat fluxes associated with the NPBSISO in the CFS is similar to that in the observations, with positive precipitation anomalies following warm SST anomalies, which are further led by positive anomalies of the surface latent heat and solar radiation fluxes into the ocean. Additional experiments with the atmosphere-only GFS are performed to examine the impacts of uncertainties in SSTs. It is found that intraseasonal SST anomalies 2–3 times as large as that of the observational bulk SST analysis of Reynolds et al. are needed for the GFS to produce realistic northward propagation of the NPBSISO with reasonable amplitude and to capture the observed phase lag between SST and precipitation. The analysis of the forecasts and the experiments suggests that a realistic representation of the observed propagation of the oscillation by the NCEP model requires not only an interactive ocean but also an intraseasonal SST variability stronger than that of the bulk SST analysis.

scholarly journals Simulations of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation Using Climate Forecast System Version 2: Insight for Horizontal Resolution and Moist Processes Parameterization

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Snehlata Tirkey ◽  
P. Mukhopadhyay ◽  
R. Phani Murali Krishna ◽  
Ashish Dhakate ◽  
Kiran Salunke
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
The North ◽  
Northward Propagation ◽  
Moist Processes

In the present study, we analyze the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model in three resolutions, T62, T126, and T382. We evaluated the performance of all three resolutions of CFSv2 in simulating the Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation (MISO) of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) by analyzing a suite of dynamic and thermodynamic parameters. Results reveal a slower northward propagation of MISO in all models with the characteristic northwest–southeast tilted rain band missing over India. The anomalous moisture convergence and vorticity were collocated with the convection center instead of being northwards. This affected the northward propagation of MISO. The easterly shear to the north of the equator was better simulated by the coarser resolution models than CFS T382. The low level specific humidity showed improvement only in CFS T382 until ~15° N. The analyses of the vertical profiles of moisture and its relation to rainfall revealed that all CFSv2 resolutions had a lower level of moisture in the lower level (< 850 hPa) and a drier level above. This eventually hampered the growth of deep convection in the model. These model shortcomings indicate a possible need of improvement in moist process parameterization in the model in tune with the increase in resolution.

scholarly journals Seasonality and Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode: ENSO Forcing and Internal Variability

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (20) ◽  
pp. 8021-8036 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Yang ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Lixin Wu ◽  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
Ngar-Cheung Lau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Destructive Interference ◽  
Indian Ocean Basin Mode ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole Mode ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract This study evaluates the relative contributions to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode of interannual variability from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and ocean–atmosphere feedbacks internal to the Indian Ocean. The ENSO forcing and internal variability is extracted by conducting a 10-member coupled simulation for 1950–2012 where sea surface temperature (SST) is restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but interactive with the atmosphere over the rest of the World Ocean. In these experiments, the ensemble mean is due to ENSO forcing and the intermember difference arises from internal variability of the climate system independent of ENSO. These elements contribute one-third and two-thirds of the total IOD variance, respectively. Both types of IOD variability develop into an east–west dipole pattern because of Bjerknes feedback and peak in September–November. The ENSO forced and internal IOD modes differ in several important ways. The forced IOD mode develops in August with a broad meridional pattern and eventually evolves into the Indian Ocean basin mode, while the internal IOD mode grows earlier in June, is more confined to the equator, and decays rapidly after October. The internal IOD mode is more skewed than the ENSO forced response. The destructive interference of ENSO forcing and internal variability can explain early terminating IOD events, referred to as IOD-like perturbations that fail to grow during boreal summer. The results have implications for predictability. Internal variability, as represented by preseason sea surface height anomalies off Sumatra, contributes to predictability considerably. Including this indicator of internal variability, together with ENSO, improves the predictability of IOD.

scholarly journals Representation of MJO Variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (17) ◽  
pp. 4676-4694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott J. Weaver ◽  
Wanqiu Wang ◽  
Mingyue Chen ◽  
Arun Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is arguably the most important intraseasonal mode of climate variability, given its significant modulation of global climate variations and attendant societal impacts. Advancing the current understanding and simulation of the MJO using state-of-the-art climate data and modeling systems is thus a necessary goal for improving MJO prediction capability. MJO variability is assessed in NOAA/NCEP reanalyses and two versions of the Climate Forecast System (CFS), CFS version 1 (CFSv1) and its update version 2 (CFSv2). The analysis leans on a variety of diagnostic procedures and includes MJO sensitivity to varying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. It is found that significant improvements have been realized in the representation of MJO variations in the new NCEP Climate Forecast System reanalysis (CFSR) as evidenced by outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) power spectral analysis and more coherent propagation characteristics of precipitation and 850-hPa zonal winds over the Eastern Hemisphere in CFSR-only depictions. Conversely, while modest improvements are realized in the CFSv2 as compared to CFSv1, in general the simulation of the MJO continues to be a challenge. Both versions produce strong eastward propagating variance of convection and wind fields in the intraseasonal frequency band. However, the simulated MJO propagates slower than the observed with difficulties traversing the Maritime Continent into the western Pacific, as noted in many previous modeling studies. The CFS shows robust intraseasonal simulations over the west Pacific during El Niño years with diminished simulation capability over the Indian Ocean during La Niña years. This is likely a manifestation of the preference for La Niña MJO activity to occur over the Indian Ocean and the simulation challenges over that domain.

Impact of improved Ocean initial condition in Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) Hindcast run

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir Pokhrel ◽  
Hasibur Rahaman ◽  
Hemantkumar Chaudhari ◽  
Subodh Kumar Saha ◽  
Anupam Hazra
Keyword(s):  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Salinity ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Surface Currents ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
The Indian Ocean

&lt;p&gt;IITM provides seasonal monsoon rainfall forecast using modified CGCM CFSv2. The present operational CFSv2 initilized with the INCOIS-GODAS ocean analysis based on MOM4p0d and 3DVar assimilation schemes. Recently new Ocean analysis GODAS-Mom4p1 using Moduler Ocean Model (MOM) upgraded physical model MOM4p1 is generated. This analysis has shown improvement in terms of subsurface temperature, salinity , current as well as sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and surface currents over the Indian Ocean domain with respect to present operational INCOIS-GODAS analysis (Rahaman et al. 2017;Rahman et al. 2019). This newly generated ocean analysis is used to initialize NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) for the retrospective run from 2011 to 2018. The simulated coupled run has shown improvement in both oceanic as well atmospheric parameters. The more realistic nature of coupled simulations across the atmosphere and ocean may be promising to get better forecast skill.&lt;/p&gt;

Diagnosis of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in high resolution NCEP climate forecast system

2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 3287-3303 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Abhik ◽  
P. Mukhopadhyay ◽  
R. P. M. Krishna ◽  
Kiran D. Salunke ◽  
Ashish R. Dhakate ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

scholarly journals Role of the Indian Ocean in the ENSO–Indian Summer Monsoon Teleconnection in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 2490-2508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepthi Achuthavarier ◽  
V. Krishnamurthy ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman ◽  
Bohua Huang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Ncep Climate Forecast System

Abstract The observed negative correlation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon is not simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) coupled model. The correlation is partially restored in the simulations where the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperature (SST) is prescribed with the daily mean or climatology. Comparison among the simulations suggests that ENSO-induced SST anomalies form a strong dipole pattern oriented along the zonal direction in the IO in the coupled model, preventing the ENSO signals from reaching the Indian monsoon region. In the model, the dipole develops early in the monsoon season and extends to the central equatorial IO while it is formed at the end of the season in observations. The dipole modifies low-level winds and surface pressure, and grows in a positive feedback loop involving winds, surface pressure, and SST. Examination of the mean state in the model reveals that the thermocline is relatively shallow in the eastern IO. This preconditions the ocean such that the atmospheric fluxes can easily impart fluctuations in the subsurface temperature and thereby in the SST. These results suggest that biases in the IO can adversely affect the ENSO–monsoon teleconnection in a coupled model.

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