scholarly journals The Behavior of Synoptic-Scale Errors in the Eta Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (11) ◽  
pp. 3355-3366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly L. Elmore ◽  
David M. Schultz ◽  
Michael E. Baldwin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
The West ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Eta Model ◽  
Grid Points

Abstract A previous study of the mean spatial bias errors associated with operational forecast models motivated an examination of the mechanisms responsible for these biases. One hypothesis for the cause of these errors is that mobile synoptic-scale phenomena are partially responsible. This paper explores this hypothesis using 24-h forecasts from the operational Eta Model and an experimental version of the Eta run with Kain–Fritsch convection (EtaKF). For a sample of 44 well-defined upper-level short-wave troughs arriving on the west coast of the United States, 70% were underforecast (as measured by the 500-hPa geopotential height), a likely result of being undersampled by the observational network. For a different sample of 45 troughs that could be tracked easily across the country, consecutive model runs showed that the height errors associated with 44% of the troughs generally decreased in time, 11% increased in time, 18% had relatively steady errors, 2% were uninitialized entering the West Coast, and 24% exhibited some other kind of behavior. Thus, landfalling short-wave troughs were typically underforecast (positive errors, heights too high), but these errors tended to decrease as they moved across the United States, likely a result of being better initialized as the troughs became influenced by more upper-air data. Nevertheless, some errors in short-wave troughs were not corrected as they fell under the influence of supposedly increased data amount and quality. These results indirectly show the effect that the amount and quality of observational data has on the synoptic-scale errors in the models. On the other hand, long-wave ridges tended to be underforecast (negative errors, heights too low) over a much larger horizontal extent. These results are confirmed in a more systematic manner over the entire dataset by segregating the model output at each grid point by the sign of the 500-hPa relative vorticity. Although errors at grid points with positive relative vorticity are small but positive in the western United States, the errors become large and negative farther east. Errors at grid points with negative relative vorticity, on the other hand, are generally negative across the United States. A large negative bias observed in the Eta and EtaKF over the southeast United States is believed to be due to an error in the longwave radiation scheme interacting with water vapor and clouds. This study shows that model errors may be related to the synoptic-scale flow, and even large-scale features such as long-wave troughs can be associated with significant large-scale height errors.

scholarly journals Climatology of Severe Local Storm Environments and Synoptic-Scale Features over North America in ERA5 Reanalysis and CAM6 Simulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (19) ◽  
pp. 8339-8365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Funing Li ◽  
Daniel R. Chavas ◽  
Kevin A. Reed ◽  
Daniel T. Dawson II
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Great Plains ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Low Level ◽  
High Bias

AbstractSevere local storm (SLS) activity is known to occur within specific thermodynamic and kinematic environments. These environments are commonly associated with key synoptic-scale features—including southerly Great Plains low-level jets, drylines, elevated mixed layers, and extratropical cyclones—that link the large-scale climate to SLS environments. This work analyzes spatiotemporal distributions of both extreme values of SLS environmental parameters and synoptic-scale features in the ERA5 reanalysis and in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), historical simulation during 1980–2014 over North America. Compared to radiosondes, ERA5 successfully reproduces SLS environments, with strong spatiotemporal correlations and low biases, especially over the Great Plains. Both ERA5 and CAM6 reproduce the climatology of SLS environments over the central United States as well as its strong seasonal and diurnal cycles. ERA5 and CAM6 also reproduce the climatological occurrence of the synoptic-scale features, with the distribution pattern similar to that of SLS environments. Compared to ERA5, CAM6 exhibits a high bias in convective available potential energy over the eastern United States primarily due to a high bias in surface moisture and, to a lesser extent, storm-relative helicity due to enhanced low-level winds. Composite analysis indicates consistent synoptic anomaly patterns favorable for significant SLS environments over much of the eastern half of the United States in both ERA5 and CAM6, though the pattern differs for the southeastern United States. Overall, our results indicate that both ERA5 and CAM6 are capable of reproducing SLS environments as well as the synoptic-scale features and transient events that generate them.

scholarly journals Migration Patterns of the Emerging Plant Pathogen Phytophthora ramorum on the West Coast of the United States of America

2009 ◽  
Vol 99 (6) ◽  
pp. 739-749 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Prospero ◽  
N. J. Grünwald ◽  
L. M. Winton ◽  
E. M. Hansen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Genetic Structure ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproductive Mode ◽  
The United States ◽  
Phytophthora Ramorum ◽  
The West ◽  
Migration Patterns ◽  
High Incidence

Phytophthora ramorum (oomycetes) is the causal agent of sudden oak death and ramorum blight on trees, shrubs, and woody ornamentals in the forests of coastal California and southwestern Oregon and in nurseries of California, Oregon, and Washington. In this study, we investigated the genetic structure of P. ramorum on the West Coast of the United States, focusing particularly on population differentiation potentially indicative of gene flow. In total, 576 isolates recovered from 2001 to 2005 were genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Our analyses of genetic diversity and inferences of reproductive mode confirm previous results for the Oregon and California populations, with the strong majority of the genotypes belonging to the NA1 clonal lineage and showing no evidence for sexual reproduction. The high incidence of genotypes shared among populations and the lack of genetic structure among populations show that important large-scale, interpopulation genetic exchanges have occurred. This emphasizes the importance of human activity in shaping the current structure of the P. ramorum population on the West Coast of the United States.

scholarly journals The Synoptic Regulation of Dryline Intensity

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (5) ◽  
pp. 1699-1709 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Schultz ◽  
Christopher C. Weiss ◽  
Paul M. Hoffman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Boundary Layer ◽  
New Mexico ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
West Texas ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Surface Cyclone ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract To investigate the role of synoptic-scale processes in regulating the strength of the dryline, a dataset is constructed of all drylines occurring within the West Texas Mesonet (WTM) during April, May, and June of 2004 and 2005. In addition, dewpoint and wind data were collected from stations on the western (Morton; MORT) and eastern (Paducah; PADU) periphery of the WTM domain (230 km across), generally oriented east–west across the typical location of the dryline in west Texas. Drylines were characterized by two variables: the difference in dewpoint between MORT and PADU (hereafter, dryline intensity) and the difference in the eastward component of the wind between MORT and PADU (hereafter, dryline confluence). A high degree of correlation existed between the two variables, consistent with a strong role for dryline confluence in determining dryline intensity. Some cases departing from the strong correlation between these variables represent synoptically quiescent drylines whose strength is likely dominated by boundary layer mixing processes. Composite synoptic analyses were constructed of the upper and lower quartiles of dryline intensity, termed STRONG and WEAK, respectively. STRONG drylines were associated with a short-wave trough in the upper-level westerlies approaching west Texas, an accompanying surface cyclone over eastern New Mexico, and southerly flow over the south-central United States. This synoptic environment was favorable for enhancing the dryline confluence responsible for strengthening the dryline. In contrast, WEAK drylines were associated with an upper-level long-wave ridge over Texas and New Mexico, broad surface cyclogenesis over the southwestern United States, and a weak lee trough—the dryline confluence favorable for dryline intensification was much weaker. A third composite termed NO BOUNDARY was composed of dates with no surface airstream boundary (e.g., front, dryline) in the WTM domain. The NO BOUNDARY composite featured an upper-level long-wave ridge west of Texas and no surface cyclone or lee trough. The results of this study demonstrate the important role that synoptic-scale processes (e.g., surface lee troughs, upper-level short-wave troughs) play in regulating the strength of the dryline. Once such a favorable synoptic pattern occurs, mesoscale and boundary layer processes can lead to further intensification of the dryline.

International ground force unlikely in Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central Government ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Intervention

Significance While intensified air attacks will help weaken and contain ISG, they will not destroy it unless accompanied by a substantial ground force to defeat ISG on the ground. However, the lack of workable military solutions to the Iraqi and Syrian conflicts, and the legacy of the Afghanistan and Iraq interventions mean that the United States and other allies are averse to carrying out a large-scale ground deployment. Impacts Without robust international intervention, Syria's civil war will drag on for years, enabling ISG to hold onto significant territory. A large-scale US ground force operation would risk enflaming anti-US sentiment and escalating the geopolitical rivalry with Iran and Russia. Proxy forces and militia groups will embed themselves in Syrian and Iraqi politics, weakening central government. Threat of attacks by ISG- and al-Qaida-linked jihadists in the West will increase. Russia and Iran's much greater military role in Syria compared to the West will give them a much greater say on the conflict's outcome.

scholarly journals Large-Scale Genotyping-by-Sequencing Indicates High Levels of Gene Flow in the Deep-Sea Octocoral Swiftia simplex (Nutting 1909) on the West Coast of the United States

PLoS ONE ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. e0165279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meredith V. Everett ◽  
Linda K. Park ◽  
Ewann A. Berntson ◽  
Anna E. Elz ◽  
Curt E. Whitmire ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Gene Flow ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Deep Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Genotyping By Sequencing ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West

Quality Control of Data in a Large-Scale Cancer Register Program

1966 ◽  
Vol 05 (02) ◽  
pp. 67-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. I. Lourie ◽  
W. Haenszeland
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Quality Control ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Cancer Register ◽  
Independent Review ◽  
End Results

Quality control of data collected in the United States by the Cancer End Results Program utilizing punchcards prepared by participating registries in accordance with a Uniform Punchcard Code is discussed. Existing arrangements decentralize responsibility for editing and related data processing to the local registries with centralization of tabulating and statistical services in the End Results Section, National Cancer Institute. The most recent deck of punchcards represented over 600,000 cancer patients; approximately 50,000 newly diagnosed cases are added annually.Mechanical editing and inspection of punchcards and field audits are the principal tools for quality control. Mechanical editing of the punchcards includes testing for blank entries and detection of in-admissable or inconsistent codes. Highly improbable codes are subjected to special scrutiny. Field audits include the drawing of a 1-10 percent random sample of punchcards submitted by a registry; the charts are .then reabstracted and recoded by a NCI staff member and differences between the punchcard and the results of independent review are noted.

Mafias on the Move

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Varese
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Organized Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Market Expansion ◽  
The North ◽  
Economic Transformations ◽  
At Will

Organized crime is spreading like a global virus as mobs take advantage of open borders to establish local franchises at will. That at least is the fear, inspired by stories of Russian mobsters in New York, Chinese triads in London, and Italian mafias throughout the West. As this book explains, the truth is more complicated. The author has spent years researching mafia groups in Italy, Russia, the United States, and China, and argues that mafiosi often find themselves abroad against their will, rather than through a strategic plan to colonize new territories. Once there, they do not always succeed in establishing themselves. The book spells out the conditions that lead to their long-term success, namely sudden market expansion that is neither exploited by local rivals nor blocked by authorities. Ultimately the inability of the state to govern economic transformations gives mafias their opportunity. In a series of matched comparisons, the book charts the attempts of the Calabrese 'Ndrangheta to move to the north of Italy, and shows how the Sicilian mafia expanded to early twentieth-century New York, but failed around the same time to find a niche in Argentina. The book explains why the Russian mafia failed to penetrate Rome but succeeded in Hungary. A pioneering chapter on China examines the challenges that triads from Taiwan and Hong Kong find in branching out to the mainland. This book is both a compelling read and a sober assessment of the risks posed by globalization and immigration for the spread of mafias.

Utopias of One

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Kotin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
World War I ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Jim Crow ◽  
Personal Autonomy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Soviet Period ◽  
Original Research ◽  
The Soviet Union

This book is a new account of utopian writing. It examines how eight writers—Henry David Thoreau, W. E. B. Du Bois, Osip and Nadezhda Mandel'shtam, Anna Akhmatova, Wallace Stevens, Ezra Pound, and J. H. Prynne—construct utopias of one within and against modernity's two large-scale attempts to harmonize individual and collective interests: liberalism and communism. The book begins in the United States between the buildup to the Civil War and the end of Jim Crow; continues in the Soviet Union between Stalinism and the late Soviet period; and concludes in England and the United States between World War I and the end of the Cold War. In this way it captures how writers from disparate geopolitical contexts resist state and normative power to construct perfect worlds—for themselves alone. The book contributes to debates about literature and politics, presenting innovative arguments about aesthetic difficulty, personal autonomy, and complicity and dissent. It models a new approach to transnational and comparative scholarship, combining original research in English and Russian to illuminate more than a century and a half of literary and political history.

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