Bow Echo Sensitivity to Ambient Moisture and Cold Pool Strength

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (3) ◽  
pp. 950-964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard P. James ◽  
Paul M. Markowski ◽  
J. Michael Fritsch
Keyword(s):  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Cold Air ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Bow Echo ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Water Vapor Mixing Ratio

Abstract Bow echo development within quasi-linear convective systems is investigated using a storm-scale numerical model. A strong sensitivity to the ambient water vapor mixing ratio is demonstrated. Relatively dry conditions at low and midlevels favor intense cold-air production and strong cold pool development, leading to upshear-tilted, “slab-like” convection for various magnitudes of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and low-level shear. High relative humidity in the environment tends to reduce the rate of production of cold air, leading to weak cold pools and downshear-tilted convective systems, with primarily cell-scale three-dimensionality in the convective region. At intermediate moisture contents, long-lived, coherent bowing segments are generated within the convective line. In general, the scale of the coherent three-dimensional structures increases with increasing cold pool strength. The bowing lines are characterized in their developing and mature stages by segments of the convective line measuring 15–40 km in length over which the cold pool is much stronger than at other locations along the line. The growth of bow echo structures within a linear convective system appears to depend critically on the local strengthening of the cold pool to the extent that the convection becomes locally upshear tilted. A positive feedback process is thereby initiated, allowing the intensification of the bow echo. If the environment favors an excessively strong cold pool, however, the entire line becomes uniformly upshear tilted relatively quickly, and the along-line heterogeneity of the bowing line is lost.

scholarly journals Comparing Aerosol and Low-Level Moisture Influences on Supercell Tornadogenesis: Three-Dimensional Idealized Simulations

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 969-987 ◽  
Author(s):  
David G. Lerach ◽  
William R. Cotton
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Evaporative Cooling ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Water Vapor Mixing Ratio ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Four three-dimensional, nested-grid numerical simulations were performed using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to compare the effects of aerosols acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) to those of low-level moisture [and thus convective available potential energy (CAPE)] on cold-pool evolution and tornadogenesis within an idealized supercell storm. The innermost grid possessed horizontal grid spacing of 111 m. The initial background profiles of CCN concentration and water vapor mixing ratio varied among the simulations (clean versus dusty and higher-moisture versus lower-moisture simulations). A fifth simulation was performed to factor out the impact of CAPE. The higher-moisture simulations produced spatially larger storms with stronger peak updrafts and low-level downdrafts, heavier precipitation, greater evaporative cooling, and stronger cold pools within the forward and rear flank downdrafts. Each simulated supercell produced a tornado-like vortex. However, the lower-moisture simulations produced stronger, longer-lived vortices, as they were associated with weaker cold pools and less negative buoyancy within the rear flank downdraft. Raindrop and hailstone concentrations (sizes) were reduced (increased) in the dusty simulations, resulting in less evaporative cooling and weaker cold pools compared to the clean simulations. With greater terminal fall speeds, the larger hydrometeors in the dusty simulations fell nearer to the storm’s core, positioning the cold pool closer to the main updraft. Tornadogenesis was related to the size, strength, and location of the cold pools produced by the forward and rear flank downdrafts. Not surprisingly, while the aerosol effect was evident, the influences of low-level moisture and CAPE had markedly larger impacts on tornadogenesis.

scholarly journals Long-Lived Mesoscale Systems in a Low–Convective Inhibition Environment. Part II: Downshear Propagation

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (11) ◽  
pp. 4319-4336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitchell W. Moncrieff ◽  
Todd P. Lane
Keyword(s):  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Mesoscale Circulation ◽  
Secondary Importance ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Stratiform Region ◽  
Mesoscale System ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract Part II of this study of long-lived convective systems in a tropical environment focuses on forward-tilted, downshear-propagating systems that emerge spontaneously from idealized numerical simulations. These systems differ in important ways from the standard mesoscale convective system that is characterized by a rearward-tilted circulation with a trailing stratiform region, an overturning updraft, and a mesoscale downdraft. In contrast to this standard mesoscale system, the downshear-propagating system considered here does not feature a mesoscale downdraft and, although there is a cold pool it is of secondary importance to the propagation and maintenance of the system. The mesoscale downdraft is replaced by hydraulic-jump-like ascent beneath an elevated, forward-tilted overturning updraft with negligible convective available potential energy. Therefore, the mesoscale circulation is sustained almost entirely by the work done by the horizontal pressure gradient and the kinetic energy available from environmental shear. This category of organization is examined by cloud-system-resolving simulations and approximated by a nonlinear archetypal model of the quasi-steady Lagrangian-mean mesoscale circulation.

Tropical Oceanic Mesoscale Cold Pools in High-Resolution Global Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) Model from DYAMOND

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piyush Garg ◽  
Stephen W. Nesbitt ◽  
Timothy J. Lang ◽  
George Priftis
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Pool Size ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Cold Pools

<p>In the recent years, global kilometer-scale convection-permitting models have shown promising results in producing realistic convection and precipitation. In this study, a 2.5 km global Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model simulation ran for 40 days (06 UTC 01 Aug – 23 UTC 10 Aug 2016) from Dynamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains (DYAMOND) initiative was used to identify thermal cold pools (using virtual temperature) over tropical oceans. In addition to examining cold pool variability, variables such as vertical wind shear (0-600 hPa and 0-300 hPa), relative humidity, convective available potential energy (CAPE), column water vapor and surface fluxes corresponding to each cold pool were analyzed. Grid-point linear regression was applied to identify relationships between these variables and cold pool size and intensity. It was found out that there is a statistically significant regional variability in the relationships between cold pool properties and their environments across the global tropics, and cold pool size and intensity have quite different dependence on the various variables considered. Unsupervised machine learning algorithm was then applied to geospatial linear regression to identify coherent patterns explaining multi-modal feedback between cold pools and their mesoscale environments.</p><p>Previous studies have hypothesized that although accurate characterization of cold pool diurnal cycle is essential to resolve realistic deep convection in the current generation climate models, our lack of understanding of feedbacks between cold pools and convection leads to distorted diurnal cycle of precipitation. NASA’s RapidScat satellite was in a non-sun-synchronous orbit for 2014-2016 and thus was able to resolve diurnal cycle. Garg et al. (2020) gradient feature technique was applied on RapidScat’s winds to identify cold pools and observe their diurnal cycle of number, size, precipitation and associated convective system properties. Once an observed perspective of cold pool diurnal cycle is obtained, Fourier analysis was used on all the cold pool-associated variables in ICON simulation to obtain the diurnal phase and amplitude. The simulated diurnal cycle of cold pool number, size, precipitation, and other variables were observed to be similar as RapidScat. In this way, this study creates a holistic overview of cold pool-convection-precipitation-storm environment relationships using high-resolution CRM from DYAMOND and satellite observations.</p>

scholarly journals Simulated Evolution and Severe Wind Production by the 25–26 June 2015 Nocturnal MCS from PECAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 148 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew D. Parker ◽  
Brett S. Borchardt ◽  
Rachel L. Miller ◽  
Conrad L. Ziegler
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Simulated Evolution ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Passive Tracers

Abstract The 25–26 June 2015 nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS) from the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field project produced severe winds within an environment that might customarily be associated with elevated convection. This work incorporates both a full-physics real-world simulation and an idealized single-sounding simulation to explore the MCS’s evolution. Initially, the simulated convective systems were elevated, being maintained by wavelike disturbances and lacking surface cold pools. As the systems matured, surface outflows began to appear, particularly where heavy precipitation was occurring, with air in the surface cold pools originating from up to 4–5 km AGL. Via this progression, the MCSs exhibited a degree of self-organization (i.e., structures that are dependent upon an MCS’s particular history). The cold pools eventually became 1.5–3.5 km deep, by which point passive tracers revealed that the convection was at least partly surface based. Soon after becoming surface based, both simulations produced severe surface winds, the strongest of which were associated with embedded low-level mesovortices and their attendant outflow surges and bowing segments. The origin of the simulated mesovortices was likely the downward tilting of system-generated horizontal vorticity (from baroclinity, but also possibly friction) within the simulated MCSs’ outflow, as has been argued in a number of previous studies. Taken altogether, it appears that severe nocturnal MCSs may often resemble their cold pool-driven, surface-based afternoon counterparts.

Self-organization and maintenance of simulated nocturnal convective systems from PECAN

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew D. Parker
Keyword(s):  
Development Stage ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Self Organized ◽  
Squall Lines ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Ground Stability

AbstractThe Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field project was designed to explain the evolution and structures of nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and relate them to specific mechanisms and environmental ingredients. The present work examines four of the strongest and best–organized PECAN cases, each numerically simulated at two different levels of complexity. The suite of simulations enables a longitudinal look at how nocturnal MCSs resemble (or differ from) more commonly–studied diurnal MCSs.All of the simulations produce at least some surface outflow (“cold pools”), with stronger outflows occurring in environments with more CAPE and weaker near–ground stability. As these surface outflows emerge, the lifting of near-ground air occurs, causing each simulated nocturnal MCS to ultimately become “surface–based”. The end result in each simulation is a quasi–linear convective system (QLCS) that is most intense toward the downshear flank of its cold pool, with the classical appearance of many afternoon squall lines. This pathway of evolution occurs both in fully-heterogeneous real world–like simulations as well as horizontally homogeneous idealized simulations. One of the studied cases also exhibits a back–building “rearward off–boundary development” stage, and this more complex behavior is also well-simulated in both model configurations. As a group, the simulations imply that a wide range of nocturnal MCS behaviors may be self–organized (i.e., not reliant on larger scale features external to the convection).

Impact of Graupel Parameterization Schemes on Idealized Bow Echo Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (4) ◽  
pp. 1241-1262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca D. Adams-Selin ◽  
Susan C. van den Heever ◽  
Richard H. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Complete Removal ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Size Distributions ◽  
Pressure Gradients ◽  
Cooling Rates ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Bow Echo ◽  
Mean Size ◽  
Microphysical Processes

Abstract The effect of changes in microphysical cooling rates on bow echo development and longevity are examined through changes to graupel parameterization in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF). Multiple simulations are performed that test the sensitivity to different graupel size distributions as well as the complete removal of graupel. It is found that size distributions with larger and denser, but fewer, graupel hydrometeors result in a weaker cold pool due to reduced microphysical cooling rates. This yields weaker midlevel (3–6 km) buoyancy and pressure perturbations, a later onset of more elevated rear inflow, and a weaker convective updraft. The convective updraft is also slower to tilt rearward, and thus bowing occurs later. Graupel size distributions with more numerous, smaller, and lighter hydrometeors result in larger microphysical cooling rates, stronger cold pools, more intense midlevel buoyancy and pressure gradients, and earlier onset of surface-based rear inflow; these systems develop bowing segments earlier. A sensitivity test with fast-falling but small graupel hydrometeors revealed that small mean size and slow fall speed both contribute to the strong cooling rates. Simulations entirely without graupel are initially weaker, because of limited contributions from cooling by melting of the slowly falling snow. However, over the next hour increased rates of melting snow result in an increasingly more intense system with new bowing. Results of the study indicate that the development of a bow echo is highly sensitive to microphysical processes, which presents a challenge to the prediction of these severe weather phenomena.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of a Bowing Mesoscale Convective System to Horizontal Grid Spacing in a Convection-Allowing Ensemble

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 384
Author(s):  
John R. Lawson ◽  
William A. Gallus ◽  
Corey K. Potvin
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Real Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Structure Amplitude ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Bow Echo ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Horizontal Grid

The bow echo, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) responsible for much hail and wind damage across the United States, is associated with poor skill in convection-allowing numerical model forecasts. Given the decrease in convection-allowing grid spacings within many operational forecasting systems, we investigate the effect of finer resolution on the character of bowing-MCS development in a real-data numerical simulation. Two ensembles were generated: one with a single domain of 3-km horizontal grid spacing, and another nesting a 1-km domain with two-way feedback. Ensemble members were generated from their control member with a stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme, with identical initial and lateral-boundary conditions. Results suggest that resolution reduces hindcast skill of this MCS, as measured with an adaptation of the object-based Structure–Amplitude–Location method. The nested 1-km ensemble produces a faster system than in both the 3-km ensemble and observations. The nested 1-km simulation also produced stronger cold pools, which could be enhanced by the increased (fractal) cloud surface area with higher resolution, allowing more entrainment of dry air and hence increased evaporative cooling.

Surface Characteristics of Observed Cold Pools

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (12) ◽  
pp. 4839-4849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas A. Engerer ◽  
David J. Stensrud ◽  
Michael C. Coniglio
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Surface Characteristics ◽  
Life Cycle Stage ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Equivalent Potential ◽  
Life Cycle Stages ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Cold pools are a key element in the organization of precipitating convective systems, yet knowledge of their typical surface characteristics is largely anecdotal. To help to alleviate this situation, cold pools from 39 mesoscale convective system (MCS) events are sampled using Oklahoma Mesonet surface observations. In total, 1389 time series of surface observations are used to determine typical rises in surface pressure and decreases in temperature, potential temperature, and equivalent potential temperature associated with the cold pool, and the maximum wind speeds in the cold pool. The data are separated into one of four convective system life cycle stages: first storms, MCS initiation, mature MCS, and MCS dissipation. Results indicate that the mean surface pressure rises associated with cold pools increase from 3.2 hPa for the first storms’ life cycle stage to 4.5 hPa for the mature MCS stage before dropping to 3.3 hPa for the dissipation stage. In contrast, the mean temperature (potential temperature) deficits associated with cold pools decrease from 9.5 (9.8) to 5.4 K (5.6 K) from the first storms to the dissipation stage, with a decrease of approximately 1 K associated with each advance in the life cycle stage. However, the daytime and early evening observations show mean temperature deficits over 11 K. A comparison of these observed cold pool characteristics with results from idealized numerical simulations of MCSs suggests that observed cold pools likely are stronger than those found in model simulations, particularly when ice processes are neglected in the microphysics parameterization. The mean deficits in equivalent potential temperature also decrease with the MCS life cycle stage, starting at 21.6 K for first storms and dropping to 13.9 K for dissipation. Mean wind gusts are above 15 m s−1 for all life cycle stages. These results should help numerical modelers to determine whether the cold pools in high-resolution models are in reasonable agreement with the observed characteristics found herein. Thunderstorm simulations and forecasts with thin model layers near the surface are also needed to obtain better representations of cold pool surface characteristics that can be compared with observations.

scholarly journals The Impact of Airborne Doppler Aerosol Wind (DAWN) Lidar Wind Profiles on Numerical Simulations of Tropical Convective Systems during the NASA Convective Processes Experiment (CPEX)

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 705-722 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiqiang Cui ◽  
Zhaoxia Pu ◽  
G. David Emmitt ◽  
Steven Greco
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Convective Processes ◽  
Wind Profiles ◽  
The Impact

AbstractHigh-spatiotemporal-resolution airborne Doppler Aerosol Wind (DAWN) lidar profiles over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico region were collected during the NASA Convective Processes Experiment (CPEX) field campaign from 27 May to 24 June 2017. This study examines the impact of assimilating these wind profiles on the numerical simulation of moist convective systems using an Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (WRF-ARW). A mesoscale convective system and a tropical storm (Cindy) that occurred on 16 June 2017 in a strong shear environment and on 21 June 2017 in a weak shear environment, respectively, are selected as case studies. The DAWN wind profiles are assimilated with the NCEP Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation analysis system using a three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and a hybrid three-dimensional ensemble-variational (3DEnVar) data assimilation systems to provide the initial conditions for a short-range forecast. Results show that the assimilation of DAWN wind profiles has significant positive impacts on convective simulations with the two assimilation approaches. The assimilation of DAWN wind profiles creates notable adjustments in the analysis of the divergence field for WRF simulations with a good agreement of wind forecasts with radiosonde observations. The quantitative precipitation forecasting is also improved. In general, the 3DEnVar data assimilation method is deemed more promising for DAWN data assimilation. There are cases with Tropical Storm Cindy in which DAWN data have slight to neutral impact on rainfall forecasts with 3DVAR, implying complicated interactions between errors of retrieved wind data and background error covariance in the lower and upper troposphere.

Impact of Environmental Variations on Simulated Squall Lines Interacting with Terrain

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (10) ◽  
pp. 3163-3183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Casey E. Letkewicz ◽  
Matthew D. Parker
Keyword(s):  
Wind Profile ◽  
Windward Side ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Squall Lines ◽  
Strong Convection ◽  
The Mean

Abstract The complex evolution of convective systems crossing (or attempting to cross) mountainous terrain represents a substantial forecasting challenge. This study examines the processes associated with environments of “crossing” squall lines (which were able to redevelop strong convection in the lee of a mountain barrier) and “noncrossing” squall lines (which were not able to redevelop strong convection downstream of the barrier). In particular, numerical simulations of mature convective systems crossing idealized terrain roughly approximating the Appalachian Mountains were used to test the first-order impact of variations in the vertical wind profile upon system maintenance. By itself, the wind profile showed no ability to uniquely discriminate between simulated crossing and noncrossing squall lines; each test revealed a similar pattern of orographic enhancement, suppression, and lee reinvigoration in which a hydraulic jump deepened the system’s cold pool and renewed the low-level lifting. Increasing the mean wind led to greater enhancement of vertical velocities on the windward side of the barrier and greater suppression on the lee side. Variations in the low-level shear influenced the temperature and depth of the outflow, which in turn altered the lifting along the system’s gust front. However, in all of the wind profile tests, convection redeveloped in the lee. Additional simulations explored more marginal environments in which idealized low-level cooling or drying stabilized the downstream environment. In most such tests, the systems weakened but the presence of CAPE aloft still enabled the systems to survive in the lee. However, the combination of a stronger mean wind with diminished CAPE and increased convective inhibition (CIN) was ultimately found to eliminate downstream redevelopment and produce a noncrossing mesoscale convective system (MCS). Within these experiments, the ability of a squall line to cross a barrier similar to the Appalachians is primarily tied to the characteristics of the downstream thermodynamic environment; however, as the lee thermodynamic environment becomes less favorable, the mean wind exerts a greater influence on system intensity and redevelopment.

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