scholarly journals Determination of Forecast Errors Arising from Different Components of Model Physics and Dynamics

2004 ◽  
Vol 132 (11) ◽  
pp. 2570-2594 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. N. Krishnamurti ◽  
J. Sanjay ◽  
A. K. Mitra ◽  
T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Regression Coefficients ◽  
Second Step ◽  
Cumulus Convection ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Radiative Processes ◽  
Grid Points ◽  
Model Equations

Abstract This paper addresses a procedure to extract error estimates for the physical and dynamical components of a forecast model. This is a two-step process in which contributions to the forecast tendencies from individual terms of the model equations are first determined using an elaborate bookkeeping of the forecast. The second step regresses these estimates of tendencies from individual terms of the model equations against the observed total tendencies. This process is executed separately for the entire horizontal and vertical transform grid points of a global model. The summary of results based on the corrections to the physics and dynamics provided by the regression coefficients highlights the component errors of the model arising from its formulation. This study provides information on geographical and vertical distribution of forecast errors contributed by features such as nonlinear advective dynamics, the rest of the dynamics, deep cumulus convection, large-scale condensation physics, radiative processes, and the rest of physics. Several future possibilities from this work are also discussed in this paper.

scholarly journals Modeling the Interaction between Cumulus Convection and Linear Gravity Waves Using a Limited-Domain Cloud System–Resolving Model

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 576-591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiming Kuang
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Cloud System ◽  
Wave Radiation ◽  
Cumulus Convection ◽  
Convective Heating ◽  
Radiative Processes ◽  
Convectively Coupled Waves ◽  
Linear Gravity

Abstract A limited-domain cloud system–resolving model (CSRM) is used to simulate the interaction between cumulus convection and two-dimensional linear gravity waves, a single horizontal wavenumber at a time. With a single horizontal wavenumber, soundings obtained from horizontal averages of the CSRM domain allow the large-scale wave equation to be evolved, and thereby its interaction with cumulus convection is modeled. It is shown that convectively coupled waves with phase speeds of 8–13 m s−1 can develop spontaneously in such simulations. The wave development is weaker at long wavelengths (>∼10 000 km). Waves at short wavelengths (∼2000 km) also appear weaker, but the evidence is less clear because of stronger influences from random perturbations. The simulated wave structures are found to change systematically with horizontal wavelength, and at horizontal wavelengths of 2000–3000 km they exhibit many of the basic features of the observed 2-day waves. The simulated convectively coupled waves develop without feedback from radiative processes, surface fluxes, or wave radiation into the stratosphere, but vanish when moisture advection by the large-scale waves is disabled. A similar degree of vertical tilt is found in the simulated convective heating at all wavelengths considered, consistent with observational results. Implications of these results to conceptual models of convectively coupled waves are discussed. In addition to being a useful tool for studying wave–convection interaction, the present approach also represents a useful framework for testing the ability of coarse-resolution CSRMs and single-column models in simulating convectively coupled waves.

scholarly journals Implicit Factors and Voting Behaviour Inconsistency: From Theoretical Concept to Empirical Phenomenon

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Олег Леонидович Чернозуб
Keyword(s):  
Present Article ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reasoned Action ◽  
Implicit Attitudes ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Theoretical Concept ◽  
Association Test ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Election Prediction

Several recent elections and referendums were marked by a dramatic failure in pre-election prediction based on large-scale surveys among voters. As a reaction to public anger and discontent among politicians alternative strategies (prediction markets, Implicit Association Test (IAT), expectation-based forecast, etc.) are being developed. The industry of election polling has also made progress: a number of studies have shown that a relatively low accuracy of forecasts was caused by inconsistencies in sample design and implementation. The present article considers another factor behind election forecast errors: insufficiency of data about the declared intentions needed to make an accurate prediction. For this purpose, the author introduces a tool called GATA (Graphic Association Test of Attitude) measuring implicit attitudes/intentions and proposes to add a “stream” of implicit effects to the usual Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). According to the findings, implicit factors are an actual and clearly detected phenomenon; inconsistency in explicit and implicit attitudes/intentions is typical of many voters. The present article aims to present this phenomenon. This will be followed by another article (Implicit Factors and Voting Behavior Inconsistency: From an Attitude to Behavior) in the next issue of the Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes (2020, no.5) which will highlight behavioral effects of inconsistencies and the results of a combined use of implicit and explicit factors in the election forecast model.

Large-scale Motion of Solar Filaments

2000 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 205-208
Author(s):  
Pavel Ambrož ◽  
Alfred Schroll
Keyword(s):  
Magnetic Flux ◽  
Proper Motion ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Accuracy Of Measurements ◽  
Solar Filaments ◽  
General Movement ◽  
Scale Motion ◽  
Velocity Scatter

AbstractPrecise measurements of heliographic position of solar filaments were used for determination of the proper motion of solar filaments on the time-scale of days. The filaments have a tendency to make a shaking or waving of the external structure and to make a general movement of whole filament body, coinciding with the transport of the magnetic flux in the photosphere. The velocity scatter of individual measured points is about one order higher than the accuracy of measurements.

Methods for the Quantification of Salivary Cortisol and of a-amylase in Biosensors and Portable Devices

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (12) ◽  
pp. 2857-2859
Author(s):  
Cristina Mihaela Ghiciuc ◽  
Andreea Silvana Szalontay ◽  
Luminita Radulescu ◽  
Sebastian Cozma ◽  
Catalina Elena Lupusoru ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Medical Practice ◽  
Salivary Cortisol ◽  
Clinical Studies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Psychological Research ◽  
Portable Devices ◽  
Salivary Amylase ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity

There is an increasing interest in the analysis of salivary biomarkers for medical practice. The objective of this article was to identify the specificity and sensitivity of quantification methods used in biosensors or portable devices for the determination of salivary cortisol and salivary a-amylase. There are no biosensors and portable devices for salivary amylase and cortisol that are used on a large scale in clinical studies. These devices would be useful in assessing more real-time psychological research in the future.

Identification of N-Substituted Triazolo-azetidines as Novel Antibacterials using pDualrep2 HTS Platform

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 346-354
Author(s):  
Yan A. Ivanenkov ◽  
Renat S. Yamidanov ◽  
Ilya A. Osterman ◽  
Petr V. Sergiev ◽  
Vladimir A. Aladinskiy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antibacterial Activity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Underlying Mechanism ◽  
Luciferase Assay ◽  
Reporter System ◽  
E Coli ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
High Concentrations ◽  
Mic Value

Aim and Objective: Antibiotic resistance is a serious constraint to the development of new effective antibacterials. Therefore, the discovery of the new antibacterials remains one of the main challenges in modern medicinal chemistry. This study was undertaken to identify novel molecules with antibacterial activity. Materials and Methods: Using our unique double-reporter system, in-house large-scale HTS campaign was conducted for the identification of antibacterial potency of small-molecule compounds. The construction allows us to visually assess the underlying mechanism of action. After the initial HTS and rescreen procedure, luciferase assay, C14-test, determination of MIC value and PrestoBlue test were carried out. Results: HTS rounds and rescreen campaign have revealed the antibacterial activity of a series of Nsubstituted triazolo-azetidines and their isosteric derivatives that has not been reported previously. Primary hit-molecule demonstrated a MIC value of 12.5 µg/mL against E. coli Δ tolC with signs of translation blockage and no SOS-response. Translation inhibition (26%, luciferase assay) was achieved at high concentrations up to 160 µg/mL, while no activity was found using C14-test. The compound did not demonstrate cytotoxicity in the PrestoBlue assay against a panel of eukaryotic cells. Within a series of direct structural analogues bearing the same or bioisosteric scaffold, compound 2 was found to have an improved antibacterial potency (MIC=6.25 µg/mL) close to Erythromycin (MIC=2.5-5 µg/mL) against the same strain. In contrast to the parent hit, this compound was more active and selective, and provided a robust IP position. Conclusion: N-substituted triazolo-azetidine scaffold may be used as a versatile starting point for the development of novel active and selective antibacterial compounds.

scholarly journals Revealing the constituents of Egypt’s oldest beer using infrared and mass spectrometry

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed A. Farag ◽  
Moamen M. Elmassry ◽  
Masahiro Baba ◽  
Renée Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Beer Brewing ◽  
Chemical Signatures ◽  
Chemical Determination ◽  
Materials Used ◽  
High Level ◽  
Beer Production ◽  
First Time ◽  
Detailed Chemical

Abstract Previous studies have shown that the Ancient Egyptians used malted wheat and barley as the main ingredients in beer brewing, but the chemical determination of the exact recipe is still lacking. To investigate the constituents of ancient beer, we conducted a detailed IR and GC-MS based metabolite analyses targeting volatile and non-volatile metabolites on the residues recovered from the interior of vats in what is currently the world’s oldest (c. 3600 BCE) installation for large-scale beer production located at the major pre-pharaonic political center at Hierakonpolis, Egypt. In addition to distinguishing the chemical signatures of various flavoring agents, such as dates, a significant result of our analysis is the finding, for the first time, of phosphoric acid in high level probably used as a preservative much like in modern beverages. This suggests that the early brewers had acquired the knowledge needed to efficiently produce and preserve large quantities of beer. This study provides the most detailed chemical profile of an ancient beer using modern spectrometric techniques and providing evidence for the likely starting materials used in beer brewing.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the atmospheric transport in a GCM using radon measurements: sensitivity to cumulus convection parameterization

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 2811-2832 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Zhang ◽  
H. Wan ◽  
M. Zhang ◽  
B. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
Radon Concentration ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Surface Concentration ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Cumulus Convection ◽  
Models Comparison ◽  
Convection Schemes ◽  
Convection Parameterization

Abstract. The radioactive species radon (222Rn) has long been used as a test tracer for the numerical simulation of large scale transport processes. In this study, radon transport experiments are carried out using an atmospheric GCM with a finite-difference dynamical core, the van Leer type FFSL advection algorithm, and two state-of-the-art cumulus convection parameterization schemes. Measurements of surface concentration and vertical distribution of radon collected from the literature are used as references in model evaluation. The simulated radon concentrations using both convection schemes turn out to be consistent with earlier studies with many other models. Comparison with measurements indicates that at the locations where significant seasonal variations are observed in reality, the model can reproduce both the monthly mean surface radon concentration and the annual cycle quite well. At those sites where the seasonal variation is not large, the model is able to give a correct magnitude of the annual mean. In East Asia, where radon simulations are rarely reported in the literature, detailed analysis shows that our results compare reasonably well with the observations. The most evident changes caused by the use of a different convection scheme are found in the vertical distribution of the tracer. The scheme associated with weaker upward transport gives higher radon concentration up to about 6 km above the surface, and lower values in higher altitudes. In the lower part of the atmosphere results from this scheme does not agree as well with the measurements as the other scheme. Differences from 6 km to the model top are even larger, although we are not yet able to tell which simulation is better due to the lack of observations at such high altitudes.

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