scholarly journals Small-Scale Spatial Gradients in Climatological Precipitation on the Olympic Peninsula

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1068-1081 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison M. Anders ◽  
Gerard H. Roe ◽  
Dale R. Durran ◽  
Justin R. Minder
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Windward Side ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
State University ◽  
Spatial Gradients ◽  
The Individual ◽  
High Topography ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Persistent, 10-km-scale gradients in climatological precipitation tied to topography are documented with a finescale rain and snow gauge network in the Matheny Ridge area of the Olympic Mountains of Washington State. Precipitation totals are 50% higher on top of an ∼800-m-high ridge relative to valleys on either side, 10 km distant. Operational fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) runs on a 4-km grid produce similar precipitation patterns with enhanced precipitation over high topography for 6 water years. The performance of the MM5 is compared to the gauge data for 3 wet seasons and for 10 large precipitation events. The cumulative MM5 precipitation forecasts for all seasons and for the sum of all 10 large events compare well with the precipitation measured by the gauges, although some of the individual events are significantly over- or underforecast. This suggests that the MM5 is reproducing the precipitation climatology in the vicinity of the gauges, but that errors for individual events may arise due to inaccurate specification of the incident flow. A computationally simple model of orographic precipitation is shown to reproduce the major features of the event precipitation pattern on the windward side of the range. This simple model can be coupled to landscape evolution models to examine the impact of long-term spatial variability in precipitation on the evolution of topography over thousands to millions of years.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of a Mesoscale Model to Microphysical Parameterizations in the MAP SOP Events IOP2b and IOP8

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (9) ◽  
pp. 1438-1454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Serafin ◽  
Rossella Ferretti
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Deposition Velocity ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Windward Side ◽  
State University ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Microphysical Processes ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The sensitivity of a mesoscale model to different microphysical parameterizations is investigated for two events of precipitation in the Mediterranean region, that is, the Mesoscale Alpine Program (MAP) intensive observation periods (IOP) 2b (19–21 September 1999) and 8 (20–22 October 1999). Simulations are performed with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5); the most commonly used bulk microphysical parameterization schemes are evaluated, with a particular focus on their impact on the forecast of rainfall. To evaluate the forecast skill, the verification is carried out quantitatively by using the observations recorded by a high-resolution rain gauge network during the MAP campaign. The results show that, for the surface rainfall forecast, all microphysical schemes produce a similar precipitation field and none of them perform significantly better than the others. The ability of different schemes to reproduce events with different ongoing microphysical processes is briefly discussed by comparing model simulations and knowledge of hydrometeor fields from radar observations. The vertical profiles of hydrometeors from two of the analyzed schemes show gross similarities with available radar observations. Last, the role of one of the parameterizations appearing in a typical bulk microphysical scheme, that is, the one of the snowfall speed, is evaluated in detail. Adjustments in the semiempirical relationships describing the fall speed of snow particles have a large impact, because a reduced snowfall speed enhances precipitation on the lee side of mountain ridges and diminishes it on the windward side. Anyway, this effect does not appear to be able to largely improve or reduce the forecast skill of the MM5 systematically; the impact of changes in the parameterization of the snow deposition velocity very likely depends on the dynamics of the event under investigation.

scholarly journals Impact of Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation of Atmospheric Motion Vectors on Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

2006 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 663-669 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongliang Wang ◽  
Xudong Liang ◽  
Yihong Duan ◽  
Johnny C. L. Chan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
State University ◽  
Motion Vectors ◽  
Geostationary Meteorological Satellite ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
Atmospheric Motion Vectors ◽  
Data Assimilation Technique ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model is employed to evaluate the impact of the Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5 water vapor and infrared atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), incorporated with the four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation technique, on tropical cyclone (TC) track predictions. Twenty-two cases from eight different TCs over the western North Pacific in 2002 have been examined. The 4DVAR assimilation of these satellite-derived wind observations leads to appreciable improvements in the track forecasts, with average reductions in track error of ∼5% at 12 h, 12% at 24 h, 10% at 36 h, and 7% at 48 h. Preliminary results suggest that the improvement depends on the quantity of the AMV data available for assimilation.

scholarly journals The Same-Source Parallel MM5

2000 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Michalakes
Keyword(s):  
Shared Memory ◽  
Distributed Memory ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
State University ◽  
Parallel Performance ◽  
Hybrid Parallelization ◽  
Beowulf Clusters ◽  
Penn State ◽  
Library Support ◽  
The Impact

Beginning with the March 1998 release of the Penn State University/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), and continuing through eight subsequent releases up to the present, the official version has run on distributed -memory (DM) parallel computers. Source translation and runtime library support minimize the impact of parallelization on the original model source code, with the result that the majority of code is line-for-line identical with the original version. Parallel performance and scaling are equivalent to earlier, hand-parallelized versions; the modifications have no effect when the code is compiled and run without the DM option. Supported computers include the IBM SP, Cray T3E, Fujitsu VPP, Compaq Alpha clusters, and clusters of PCs (so-called Beowulf clusters). The approach also is compatible with shared-memory parallel directives, allowing distributed-memory/shared-memory hybrid parallelization on distributed-memory clusters of symmetric multiprocessors.

scholarly journals Influences of Asymmetric Heating on Hurricane Evolution in the MM5

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (11) ◽  
pp. 3974-3992 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Dominique Möller ◽  
Lloyd J. Shapiro
Keyword(s):  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
State University ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Passive Response ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
Small Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract While previous idealized studies have demonstrated the importance of asymmetric atmospheric features in the intensification of a symmetric tropical cyclone vortex, the role of convectively generated asymmetries in creating changes in the azimuthally averaged cyclone is not well understood. In the present study the full-physics nonhydrostatic fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to evaluate the influence of such asymmetries. Rather than adding winds and temperatures in balance with a specified potential vorticity (PV) asymmetry, or temperature perturbations themselves, to a symmetric vortex as in previous studies, a diabatic heating asymmetry is imposed on a spunup model hurricane. The impact of short-duration eyewall-scale monochromatic azimuthal wavenumber diabatic heating on the short- and long-term evolution of the azimuthally averaged vortex is evaluated, and a tangential wind budget is made to determine the mechanisms responsible for the short-term impact. It is found that the small eddy kick created by the additional diabatic heating asymmetry leads to a substantially amplified long-term change in the azimuthally averaged vortex, with episodes of strong relative weakening and strengthening following at irregular intervals. This behavior is diabatically controlled. It is also found that the symmetric secondary circulation can be active in creating short-term changes in the vortex, and is not simply a passive response as in previous studies with dry physics. A central conclusion of the study is that the structure of the spunup hurricane vortex, in particular preexisting asymmetric features, can have a substantial influence on the character of the response to an additional diabatic heating asymmetry. The results also imply that a small change in the factors that control convective activity will have a substantial lasting consequence for the intensification of a hurricane.

scholarly journals Bridging the condensation-collision size gap: a direct numerical simulation of continuous droplet growth in turbulent cloud

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sisi Chen ◽  
Man-Kong Yau ◽  
Peter Bartello ◽  
Lulin Xue
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
Cloud Droplet ◽  
Droplet Size Distribution ◽  
Droplet Growth ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Combined Processes ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Condensational Growth ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Rain Formation

Abstract. In most previous DNS studies on droplet growth in turbulence, condensational growth and collisional growth were treated separately. Studies in recent decades have postulated that small-scale turbulence may accelerate droplet collisions when droplets are still small when condensational growth is effective. This implies that both processes should be considered simultaneously to unveil the full history of droplet growth and rain formation. This paper introduces the first DNS approach to explicitly study the continuous droplet growth by condensation and collisions inside an adiabatic ascending cloud parcel. Results from the condensation-only, collision-only, and condensation-collision experiments are compared to examine the contribution to the broadening of droplet size distribution by the individual process and by the combined processes. Simulations of different turbulent intensities are conducted to investigate the impact of turbulence on each process and on the condensation-induced collisions. The results show that the condensational process promotes the collisions in a turbulent environment and reduces the collisions when in still air, indicating a positive impact of condensation on turbulent collisions. This work suggests the necessity to include both processes simultaneously when studying droplet-turbulence interaction to quantify the turbulence effect on the evolution of cloud droplet spectrum and rain formation.

scholarly journals The Effects of Complex Terrain on Severe Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Larry (2006) over Northeast Australia

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (11) ◽  
pp. 4334-4354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish A. Ramsay ◽  
Lance M. Leslie
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Wind Field ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Intense Storm

Abstract The interaction between complex terrain and a landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) over northeastern Australia is investigated using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). Severe TC Larry (in March 2006) made landfall over an area of steep coastal orography and caused extensive damage. The damage pattern suggested that the mountainous terrain had a large influence on the TC wind field, with highly variable damage across relatively small distances. The major aims in this study were to reproduce the observed features of TC Larry, including track, intensity, speed of movement, size, decay rate, and the three-dimensional wind field using realistic high-resolution terrain data and a nested grid with a horizontal spacing of 1 km for the finest domain (referred to as CTRL), and to assess how the above parameters change when the terrain height is set to zero (NOTOPOG). The TC track for CTRL, including the timing and location of landfall, was in close agreement with observation, with the model eye overlapping the location of the observed eye at landfall. Setting the terrain height to zero resulted in a more southerly track and a more intense storm at landfall. The orography in CTRL had a large impact on the TC’s 3D wind field, particularly in the boundary layer where locally very high wind speeds, up to 68 m s−1, coincided with topographic slopes and ridges. The orography also affected precipitation, with localized maxima in elevated regions matching observed rainfall rates. In contrast, the precipitation pattern for the NOTOPOG TC was more symmetric and rainfall totals decreased rapidly with distance from the storm’s center. Parameterized maximum surface wind gusts were located beneath strong boundary layer jets. Finally, small-scale banding features were evident in the surface wind field over land for the NOTOPOG TC, owing to the interaction between the TC boundary layer flow and land surface characteristics.

scholarly journals Polar Lows over the Nordic Seas: Improved Representation in ERA-Interim Compared to ERA-40 and the Impact on Downscaled Simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (6) ◽  
pp. 2271-2289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibaut Laffineur ◽  
Chantal Claud ◽  
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau ◽  
Gunnar Noer
Keyword(s):  
Barents Sea ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Short Life Span ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Polar Low ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Polar lows are intense high-latitude mesocyclones that form during the cold season over open sea. Their relatively small-scale and short life span lead to a rather poor representation in model outputs and meteorological reanalyses. In this paper, the ability of the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) to represent polar lows over the Norwegian and Barents Sea is assessed, and a comparison with the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is provided for three cold seasons (1999–2000 until 2001–02). A better representation in ERA-Interim is found, with 13 systems captured out of the 29 observed, against 6 in the case of ERA-40. Reasons for the lack of representation are identified. Unexpectedly, the representation of different polar low sizes does not appear to be linked to the resolution. Rather, it is the representation of synoptic conditions that appears to be essential. In a second part, a downscaling is conducted using the mesoscale model Méso-NH. For each observed polar low, a pair of simulations is performed: one initialized by ERA-Interim and the other one by ERA-40. An improvement is noted with 22 polar lows represented when ERA-Interim is used. Through a model-to-satellite approach, it is shown that even if polar lows are simulated, convective processes remain insufficiently represented. Wind speeds, which were underestimated in reanalyses, are nevertheless more realistic in the Méso-NH simulations. These results are supported by a spectral analysis of reanalyses and Méso-NH fields.

scholarly journals Occupancy Tax Within Tax Models of Nautical Tourism in the Mediterranean

Pomorstvo ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-181
Author(s):  
Luka Vukić ◽  
Pero Vidan ◽  
Eli Marušić
Keyword(s):  
Price Policy ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Revenue Growth ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

The existing tax models in nautical tourism, different for an individual country, contain various additional taxes already analyzed in scientific researches, while the characteristics and impacts of occupancy tax have been left neglected. The aim of the paper is to examine the impact of occupancy tax on the competitiveness of the price policy in nautical tourism within the Mediterranean countries, by performing the comparative analysis of tax models between the European Union member states and other Mediterranean countries. The results obtained have shown different and hardly comparable tax models, determined by the strategic orientation of the individual country in nautical tourism. The charges of the representatives of two target groups, the occupancy tax prices in Montenegro and similar models in Croatia and Greece have been compared, where the research findings indicated Montenegro as more competitive than the two other EU countries in all categories of the analysis. The obtained results have neglected other destinations comparative advantages mainly favorable to the EU countries having excellent development perspectives. The small scale participation of the occupancy tax in the overall tax model should not allow long-term outflow of the users in the European Union’s nautical tourism due to short-term revenue growth.

scholarly journals Four-Dimensional Variational Data Analysis of Water Vapor Raman Lidar Data and Their Impact on Mesoscale Forecasts

2008 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 1437-1453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Grzeschik ◽  
Hans-Stefan Bauer ◽  
Volker Wulfmeyer ◽  
Dirk Engelbart ◽  
Ulla Wandinger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Test Case ◽  
State University ◽  
Raman Lidar ◽  
Initial Water ◽  
Forecast Time ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of water vapor observations on mesoscale initial fields provided by a triangle of Raman lidar systems covering an area of about 200 km × 200 km is investigated. A test case during the Lindenberg Campaign for Assessment of Humidity and Cloud Profiling Systems and its Impact on High-Resolution Modeling (LAUNCH-2005) was chosen. Evaluation of initial water vapor fields derived from ECMWF analysis revealed that in the model the highly variable vertical structure of water vapor profiles was not recovered and vertical gradients were smoothed out. Using a 3-h data assimilation window and a resolution of 10–30 min, continuous water vapor data from these observations were assimilated in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) by means of a four-dimensional variational data analysis (4DVAR). A strong correction of the vertical structure and the absolute values of the initial water vapor field of the order of 1 g kg−1 was found. This occurred mainly upstream of the lidar systems within an area, which was comparable with the domain covered by the lidar systems. The correction of the water vapor field was validated using independent global positioning system (GPS) sensors. Much better agreement to GPS zenith wet delay was achieved with the initial water vapor field after 4DVAR. The impact region was transported with the mean wind and was still visible after 4 h of free forecast time.

The Impact of Assimilating Dropwindsonde Data Deployed at Different Sites on Typhoon Track Forecasts

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (8) ◽  
pp. 2669-2682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boyu Chen ◽  
Mu Mu ◽  
Qin Xiaohao
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Surveillance Program ◽  
State University ◽  
Optimal Perturbation ◽  
Fifth Generation ◽  
Typhoon Track ◽  
Adaptive Observation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study investigates the impacts on typhoon track forecasting by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system of assimilating dropwindsonde observational data acquired from different sites. All of the sonde data were obtained between 2004 and 2009 in the typhoon surveillance program Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR). Experiments were conducted to test the model's response to five scenarios involving differing dropwindsonde data inputs: 1) no dropwindsonde data, 2) all available dropwindsonde data, 3) data gathered in sensitive regions identified by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach, 4) data gathered in sensitive regions identified by the first singular vector (FSV) approach, and 5) several sondes selected at random. The results show that using dropwindsonde data based on CNOP sensitivity can lead to improvements in typhoon track forecasting similar to, and occasionally better than, those achieved by assimilating all of the available data. Both approaches offered greater benefits than the other three alternatives averagely. It is proposed that CNOP provides a suitable approach to determining sensitive regions during adaptive observation of typhoons. Similar results may be obtained if the sensitivity products developed using MM5 are employed in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), suggesting that it is applicable to utilize sensitivity produced by MM5 in WRF.

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