Water Vapor Transport and the Production of Precipitation in the Eastern Fertile Crescent

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 1295-1307 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. Evans ◽  
R. B. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Fertile Crescent ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract The study presented here attempts to quantify the significance of southerly water vapor fluxes on precipitation occurring in the eastern Fertile Crescent region. The water vapor fluxes were investigated at high temporal and spatial resolution by using a Regional Climate Model [fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5)–Noah land surface model] to downscale the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. Using the Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Techniques (ISODATA) clustering algorithm, the 200 largest precipitation events, occurring from 1990 through 1994, were grouped into classes based on the similarity of their water vapor fluxes. Results indicate that, while southerly fluxes were dominant in 24% of tested events, these events produced 43% of the total precipitation produced by the 200 largest events. Thus, while the majority of precipitation events occurring in the Fertile Crescent involve significant water vapor advected from the west, those events that included southerly fluxes produced much larger precipitation totals. This suggests that changes that affect these southerly fluxes more than the westerly fluxes (e.g., changes in the Indian monsoon, movement of the head of the Persian Gulf, etc.) may have a relatively strong affect on the total precipitation falling in the Fertile Crescent even though they affect relatively few precipitation events. To obtain a clearer view of the precipitation mechanisms, the authors used a linear model, along with the estimated water vapor fluxes, to downscale from 25 to 1 km. The result shows a spectrum of mountain scales not seen in the regional model, exerting tight control on the precipitation pattern.

Changes in Water Vapor Transport and the Production of Precipitation in the Eastern Fertile Crescent as a Result of Global Warming

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1390-1401 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. Evans
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
State University ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Fertile Crescent ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

Abstract This study investigates changes in the types of storm events occurring in the Fertile Crescent as a result of global warming. Regional climate model [fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)–Noah] simulations are run for the first and last five years of the twenty-first century following the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 experiment. Then the precipitation events are classified according to the water vapor fluxes that created them. At present most of the region’s precipitation is from westerly water vapor fluxes. Results indicate that the region will increasingly get its precipitation from large events that are dominated by southerly water vapor fluxes. The increase in these events will occur in the transition seasons, especially autumn.

scholarly journals Validation of a new SAFRAN-based gridded precipitation product for Spain and comparisons to Spain02 and ERA-Interim

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 2187-2201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pere Quintana-Seguí ◽  
Marco Turco ◽  
Sixto Herrera ◽  
Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Interpolation Method ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Offline land surface model (LSM) simulations are useful for studying the continental hydrological cycle. Because of the nonlinearities in the models, the results are very sensitive to the quality of the meteorological forcing; thus, high-quality gridded datasets of screen-level meteorological variables are needed. Precipitation datasets are particularly difficult to produce due to the inherent spatial and temporal heterogeneity of that variable. They do, however, have a large impact on the simulations, and it is thus necessary to carefully evaluate their quality in great detail. This paper reports the quality of two high-resolution precipitation datasets for Spain at the daily time scale: the new SAFRAN-based dataset and Spain02. SAFRAN is a meteorological analysis system that was designed to force LSMs and has recently been extended to the entirety of Spain for a long period of time (1979/1980–2013/2014). Spain02 is a daily precipitation dataset for Spain and was created mainly to validate regional climate models. In addition, ERA-Interim is included in the comparison to show the differences between local high-resolution and global low-resolution products. The study compares the different precipitation analyses with rain gauge data and assesses their temporal and spatial similarities to the observations. The validation of SAFRAN with independent data shows that this is a robust product. SAFRAN and Spain02 have very similar scores, although the latter slightly surpasses the former. The scores are robust with altitude and throughout the year, save perhaps in summer when a diminished skill is observed. As expected, SAFRAN and Spain02 perform better than ERA-Interim, which has difficulty capturing the effects of the relief on precipitation due to its low resolution. However, ERA-Interim reproduces spells remarkably well in contrast to the low skill shown by the high-resolution products. The high-resolution gridded products overestimate the number of precipitation days, which is a problem that affects SAFRAN more than Spain02 and is likely caused by the interpolation method. Both SAFRAN and Spain02 underestimate high precipitation events, but SAFRAN does so more than Spain02. The overestimation of low precipitation events and the underestimation of intense episodes will probably have hydrological consequences once the data are used to force a land surface or hydrological model.

scholarly journals The role of atmospheric boundary layer-surface interactions on the development of coastal fronts

2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Malda ◽  
J. Vilà-Guerau de Arellano ◽  
W. D. van den Berg ◽  
I. W. Zuurendonk
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Surface Conditions ◽  
Frictional Convergence ◽  
Coastal Front ◽  
Thermal Difference

Abstract. Frictional convergence and thermal difference between land and sea surface are the two surface conditions that govern the intensity and evolution of a coastal front. By means of the mesoscale model MM5, we investigate the influence of these two processes on wind patterns, temperature and precipitation amounts, associated with a coastal front, observed on the west coast of The Netherlands in the night between 12 and 13 August 2004. The mesoscale model MM5 is further compared with available observations and the results of two operational models (ECMWF and HIRLAM). HIRLAM is not capable to reproduce the coastal front, whereas ECMWF and MM5 both calculate precipitation for the coastal region. The precipitation pattern, calculated by MM5, agrees satisfactorily with the accumulated radar image. The failure of HIRLAM is mainly due to a different stream pattern at the surface and consequently, a different behaviour of the frictional convergence at the coastline. The sensitivity analysis of frictional convergence is carried out with the MM5 model, by varying land surface roughness length (z0). For the sensitivity analysis of thermal difference between sea and land surface, we changed the sea surface temperature (SST). Increasing surface roughness implies stronger convergence near the surface and consequently stronger upward motions and intensification of the development of the coastal front. Setting land surface roughness equal to the sea surface roughness means an elimination of frictional convergence and results in a diminishing coastal front structure of the precipitation pattern. The simulation with a high SST produces much precipitation above the sea, but less precipitation in the coastal area above land. A small increment of the SST results in larger precipitation amounts above the sea; above land increments are calculated for areas near the coast. A decrease of the SST shifts the precipitation maxima inland, although the precipitation amounts diminish. In the situation under study, frictional convergence is the key process that enhances the coastal front intensity. A thermal difference between land and sea equal to zero still yields the development of the coastal front. A lower SST than land surface temperature generates a reversed coastal front. This study emphasizes the importance of accurate prescription of surface conditions as input of the numerical weather prediction model to improve coastal front predictability.

scholarly journals Recent Changes in the Moisture Source of Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1807-1819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Qiuhong Tang ◽  
Deliang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Moisture Source ◽  
Moisture Supply

Abstract Evidence has suggested a wetting trend over part of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades, although there are large uncertainties in this trend due to sparse observations. Examining the change in the moisture source for precipitation over a region in the TP with the most obvious increasing precipitation trend may help understand the precipitation change. This study applied the modified Water Accounting Model with two atmospheric reanalyses, ground-observed precipitation, and evaporation from a land surface model to investigate the change in moisture source of the precipitation over the targeted region. The study estimated that on average more than 69% and more than 21% of the moisture supply to precipitation over the targeted region came from land and ocean, respectively. The moisture transports from the west of the TP by the westerlies and from the southwest by the Indian summer monsoon likely contributed the most to precipitation over the targeted region. The moisture from inside the region may have contributed about 18% of the total precipitation. Most of the increased moisture supply to the precipitation during 1979–2013 was attributed to the enhanced influx from the southwest and the local moisture supply. The precipitation recycling ratio over the targeted region increased significantly, suggesting an intensified hydrological cycle. Further analysis at monthly scale and with wet–dry-year composites indicates that the increased moisture contribution was mainly from the southwest and the targeted region during May and September. The enhanced water vapor transport from the Indian Ocean during July and September and the intensified local hydrological recycling seem to be the primary reasons behind the recent precipitation increase over the targeted region.

scholarly journals Development of a Land Surface Model Including Evaporation and Adsorption Processes in the Soil for the Land–Air Exchange in Arid Regions

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 1307-1324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Genki Katata ◽  
Haruyasu Nagai ◽  
Hiromasa Ueda ◽  
Nurit Agam ◽  
Pedro R. Berliner
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Soil Layer ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Water Vapor Flux ◽  
Vapor Flux ◽  
Adsorption Processes

Abstract A one-dimensional soil model has been developed to better predict heat and water exchanges in arid and semiarid regions. New schemes to calculate evaporation and adsorption in the soil were incorporated in the model. High performance of the model was confirmed by comparison of predicted surface fluxes, soil temperature, and volumetric soil water content with those measured in the Negev Desert, Israel. Evaporation and adsorption processes in the soil have a large impact on the heat and water exchange between the atmosphere and land surface and are necessary to accurately predict them. Numerical experiments concerning the drying process of soil are performed using the presented model and a commonly used land surface model. The results indicated that, when the dry soil layer (DSL) develops, water vapor flux to the atmosphere is caused by evaporation in the soil rather than evaporation at the ground surface. Moreover, the adsorption process has some impact on the water and heat balance at the ground surface. The upward water vapor flux during the daytime is due to evaporation of soil water in the DSL, which is stored during the night due to adsorption. When the DSL progresses sufficiently, almost the same amounts of water are exchanged between the air and the soil surface by daytime evaporation and nighttime adsorption. In such conditions, latent heat due to evaporation and adsorption in the soil also work to reduce the diurnal variation of surface temperature.

scholarly journals Validation of a new SAFRAN-based gridded precipitation product for Spain and comparisons to Spain02 and ERA-Interim

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pere Quintana-Seguí ◽  
Marco Turco ◽  
Sixto Herrera ◽  
Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Interpolation Method ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Offline Land-Surface Model (LSM) simulations are useful for studying the continental hydrological cycle. Because of the nonlinearities in the models, the results are very sensitive to the quality of the meteorological forcing; thus, high-quality gridded datasets of screen-level meteorological variables are needed. Precipitation datasets are particularly difficult to produce due to the inherent spatial and temporal heterogeneity of that variable. They do, however, have a large impact on the simulations, and it is thus necessary to carefully evaluate their quality in great detail. This paper reports the quality of two high-resolution precipitation datasets for Spain at the daily time scale: the new SAFRAN-based dataset and Spain02. SAFRAN is a meteorological analysis system that was designed to force LSMs and has recently been extended to the entirety of Spain for a long period of time (1979/80–2013/14). Spain02 is a daily precipitation dataset for Spain and was created mainly to validate Regional Climate Models. In addition, ERA-Interim is included in the comparison to show the differences between local high-resolution and global low-resolution products. The study compares the different precipitation analyses with rain gauge data and assesses their temporal and spatial similarities to the observations. The results show that SAFRAN and Spain02 have very similar skill scores, although the later has better scores in general. As expected, SAFRAN and Spain02 perform better than ERA-Interim, which has difficulty capturing the effects of the relief on precipitation due to its low resolution. However, ERA-Interim reproduces spells remarkably well, in contrast to the low skill shown by the high-resolution products. The high-resolution gridded products overestimate the number of precipitation days, which is a problem that affects SAFRAN more than Spain02 and is likely caused by the interpolation method. Both SAFRAN and Spain02 underestimate high precipitation events, but SAFRAN does so more than Spain02. The overestimation of low precipitation events and the underestimation of intense episodes will probably have hydrological consequences once the data are used to force a land surface or hydrological model.

scholarly journals Coupling the high complexity land surface model ACASA to the mesoscale model WRF

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 2829-2875 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Xu ◽  
R. D. Pyles ◽  
K. T. Paw U ◽  
S. H. Chen ◽  
E. Monier
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
High Complexity ◽  
Surface Conditions

Abstract. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is coupled with the Advanced Canopy–Atmosphere–Soil Algorithm (ACASA), a high complexity land surface model. Although WRF is a state-of-the-art regional atmospheric model with high spatial and temporal resolutions, the land surface schemes available in WRF are simple and lack the capability to simulate carbon dioxide, for example, the popular NOAH LSM. ACASA is a complex multilayer land surface model with interactive canopy physiology and full surface hydrological processes. It allows microenvironmental variables such as air and surface temperatures, wind speed, humidity, and carbon dioxide concentration to vary vertically. Simulations of surface conditions such as air temperature, dew point temperature, and relative humidity from WRF–ACASA and WRF–NOAH are compared with surface observation from over 700 meteorological stations in California. Results show that the increase in complexity in the WRF–ACASA model not only maintains model accuracy, it also properly accounts for the dominant biological and physical processes describing ecosystem-atmosphere interactions that are scientifically valuable. The different complexities of physical and physiological processes in the WRF–ACASA and WRF–NOAH models also highlight the impacts of different land surface and model components on atmospheric and surface conditions.

scholarly journals The Effects of Complex Terrain on Severe Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Larry (2006) over Northeast Australia

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (11) ◽  
pp. 4334-4354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish A. Ramsay ◽  
Lance M. Leslie
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Wind Field ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Intense Storm

Abstract The interaction between complex terrain and a landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) over northeastern Australia is investigated using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). Severe TC Larry (in March 2006) made landfall over an area of steep coastal orography and caused extensive damage. The damage pattern suggested that the mountainous terrain had a large influence on the TC wind field, with highly variable damage across relatively small distances. The major aims in this study were to reproduce the observed features of TC Larry, including track, intensity, speed of movement, size, decay rate, and the three-dimensional wind field using realistic high-resolution terrain data and a nested grid with a horizontal spacing of 1 km for the finest domain (referred to as CTRL), and to assess how the above parameters change when the terrain height is set to zero (NOTOPOG). The TC track for CTRL, including the timing and location of landfall, was in close agreement with observation, with the model eye overlapping the location of the observed eye at landfall. Setting the terrain height to zero resulted in a more southerly track and a more intense storm at landfall. The orography in CTRL had a large impact on the TC’s 3D wind field, particularly in the boundary layer where locally very high wind speeds, up to 68 m s−1, coincided with topographic slopes and ridges. The orography also affected precipitation, with localized maxima in elevated regions matching observed rainfall rates. In contrast, the precipitation pattern for the NOTOPOG TC was more symmetric and rainfall totals decreased rapidly with distance from the storm’s center. Parameterized maximum surface wind gusts were located beneath strong boundary layer jets. Finally, small-scale banding features were evident in the surface wind field over land for the NOTOPOG TC, owing to the interaction between the TC boundary layer flow and land surface characteristics.

scholarly journals Climatology of Winter Orographic Precipitation over the Subtropical Central Andes and Associated Synoptic and Regional Characteristics

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maximiliano Viale ◽  
Mario N. Nuñez
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Windward Side ◽  
Leeward Side ◽  
Orographic Precipitation ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
The Andes ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Fourth Quartile ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Winter orographic precipitation over the Andes between 30° and 37°S is examined using precipitation gauges in the mountains and adjacent lowlands. Because of the limited number of precipitation gauges, this paper focuses on the large-scale variation in cross-barrier precipitation and does not take into account the fine ridge–valley scale. The maximum amount of precipitation was observed on the windward slope of the mountain range below the crest, which was twice that observed on the low-windward side between 32.5° and 34°S. Toward the east of the crest, precipitation amounts drop sharply, generating a strong cross-barrier gradient. The rain shadow effect is greater in the north (32°–34.5°S) than in the south (35°–36.5°S) of the low-lee side, which is probably due to more baroclinic activity in southernmost latitudes and a southward decrease in the height of the Andes enabling more spillover precipitation. The effect of the Andes on winter precipitation is so marked that it modifies the precipitation regimes in the adjacent windward and leeward lowlands north of 35°S. Based on the fact that ~75% of the wintertime precipitation accumulated in the fourth quartile, through four or five heavy events on average, the synoptic-scale patterns of the heavy (into fourth quartile) orographic precipitation events were identified. Heavy events are strongly related to strong water vapor transport from the Pacific Ocean in the pre-cold-front environment of extratropical cyclones, which would have the form of atmospheric rivers as depicted in the reanalysis and rawinsonde data. The composite fields revealed a marked difference between two subgroups of heavy precipitation events. The extreme (100th–95th percentiles) events are associated with deeper cyclones than those for intense (95th–75th percentiles) events. These deeper cyclones lead to much stronger plumes of water vapor content and cross-barrier moisture flux against the high Andes, resulting in heavier orographic precipitation for extreme events. In addition, regional airflow characteristics suggest that the low-level flow is typically blocked and diverted poleward in the form of an along-barrier jet. On the lee side, downslope flow dominates during heavy events, producing prominent rain shadow effects as denoted by the domain of downslope winds extending to low-leeward side (i.e., zonda wind).

scholarly journals A Modeling and Observational Framework for Diagnosing Local Land–Atmosphere Coupling on Diurnal Time Scales

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 577-599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph A. Santanello ◽  
Christa D. Peters-Lidard ◽  
Sujay V. Kumar ◽  
Charles Alonge ◽  
Wei-Kuo Tao
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Test Bed

Abstract Land–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed because of the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Furthermore, uncoupled systems or experiments [e.g., the Project for the Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS)] may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land–atmosphere coupling is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during field experiments in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) has been coupled to the Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. Within this framework, the coupling established by each pairing of the available PBL schemes in WRF with the LSMs in LIS is evaluated in terms of the diurnal temperature and humidity evolution in the mixed layer. The coevolution of these variables and the convective PBL are sensitive to and, in fact, integrative of the dominant processes that govern the PBL budget, which are synthesized through the use of mixing diagrams. Results show how the sensitivity of land–atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of PBL scheme and LSM varies across surface moisture regimes and can be quantified and evaluated against observations. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land–atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS–WRF system, which will serve as a test bed for future experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

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