scholarly journals A New Perspective on the Climate Prediction of Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (19) ◽  
pp. 4840-4853 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young-Kwon Lim ◽  
Kwang-Yul Kim
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Climate Signals ◽  
Cseof Analysis ◽  
The Individual

Abstract A new paradigm for climate (one month and longer) prediction is developed and is applied to the 5-day-averaged Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation. The foundation of the method is to identify climate signals (deterministic components) that constitute the ASM system and predict the temporal fluctuations of the amplitudes (stochastic components) of the individual signals. Climate signals were identified via cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis of the Xie–Arkin pentad precipitation in this study and include the annual cycle, El Niño/La Niña, and the intraseasonal oscillations of the 40–50-day period band (the Madden–Julian oscillation). Prediction is much facilitated by forecasting the slowly undulating amplitude time series of each climate signal rather than the raw precipitation data directly. The new prediction method results in reasonable forecasts of the pentad precipitation for the test period of 1999–2001. Specifically, the propagation of the intraseasonal oscillations is predicted successfully 60 days in advance. The performance of the new method is significantly better than persistence and that of conventional prediction methods in which raw data is predicted directly.

The Annual Cycle, Intraseasonal Oscillations, and Roadblock to Seasonal Predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (20) ◽  
pp. 5078-5099 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. N. Goswami ◽  
Guoxiong Wu ◽  
T. Yasunari
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Systematic Bias ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract Factors responsible for limited predictability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are investigated within a conceptual framework for predictability. Predictability of the seasonal mean depends on the interannual variability (IAV) of the monsoon annual cycle (MAC) and is determined by relative contribution of the predictable “external” component of IAV compared to the unpredictable “internal” IAV. Contributions of slow processes such as those involving air–sea interactions associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or local warm ocean–atmosphere interactions in generating IAV of the MAC are reviewed. Empirical evidence that these air–sea interactions modulate the MAC is presented. Estimates of internal IAV have been made from observations as well as atmospheric model simulations. In contrast to a large part of the Tropics where the summer climate is predictable, with the internal variability being much smaller than the external one, the limited predictability of the Asian monsoon appears to be due to the fact that the contribution from the external IAV over the region is relatively weak and comparable to that from internal IAV. Cause for large internal IAV over the ASM region is investigated, and it is proposed that the internal IAV of the MAC is primarily due to interaction between the MAC and the summer intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). Two mechanisms through which ISOs lead to internal IAV of the MAC are unraveled. The seasonal bias of the ISO anomalies can influence the seasonal mean if the spatial structure of the ISO has significant projection on that of the seasonal mean and if frequency of occurrence of positive and negative phases is unequal. Evidence supporting this is presented. In addition, it is demonstrated that the chaotic summer ISOs modulated by the annually varying forcing associated with the “slow annual cycle” can lead to IAV of the seasonal mean. Empirical evidence that IAV of ISO activity is related to IAV of the seasonal mean or MAC is also presented. Thus, the Asian monsoon would remain a difficult system to predict. To exploit the predictable signal, however, it is imperative that systematic bias of the models is improved and the space–time structure of the summer ISOs is simulated accurately.

scholarly journals Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuhei Takaya ◽  
Yu Kosaka ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Shuhei Maeda
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Asian Society ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
One Year

AbstractThe interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon has significant impacts on Asian society. Advances in climate modelling have enabled us to make useful predictions of the seasonal Asian summer monsoon up to approximately half a year ahead, but long-range predictions remain challenging. Here, using a 52-member large ensemble hindcast experiment spanning 1980–2016, we show that a state-of-the-art climate model can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated summer tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead. The key to this long-range prediction is successfully simulating El Niño-Southern Oscillation evolution and realistically representing the subsequent atmosphere–ocean response in the Indian Ocean–western North Pacific in the second boreal summer of the prediction. A large ensemble size is also important for achieving a useful prediction skill, with a margin for further improvement by an even larger ensemble.

scholarly journals Efficient transport of atmospheric microplastics onto the continent via the East Asian summer monsoon

2021 ◽  
Vol 414 ◽  
pp. 125477
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Wang ◽  
Kai Liu ◽  
Lixin Zhu ◽  
Changjun Li ◽  
Zhangyu Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Efficient Transport

scholarly journals Holocene variability of East Asian summer monsoon as viewed from the speleothem δ18O records in central China

2021 ◽  
Vol 558 ◽  
pp. 116758
Author(s):  
Yanjun Cai ◽  
Xing Cheng ◽  
Le Ma ◽  
Ruixue Mao ◽  
Sebastian F.M. Breitenbach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Central China ◽  
Asian Summer

Nonlinear, Intraseasonal Phases of the East Asian Summer Monsoon: Extraction and Analysis Using Self-Organizing Maps

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (20) ◽  
pp. 6975-6988 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jung-Eun Chu ◽  
Saji N. Hameed ◽  
Kyung-Ja Ha
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Self Organizing

Abstract The hypothesis that regional characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) result from the presence of nonlinear coupled features that modulate the seasonal circulation and rainfall at the intraseasonal time scale is advanced in this study. To examine this hypothesis, the authors undertake the analysis of daily EASM variability using a nonlinear multivariate data classifying algorithm known as self-organizing mapping (SOM). On the basis of various SOM node analyses, four major intraseasonal phases of the EASM are identified. The first node describes a circulation state corresponding to weak tropical and subtropical pressure systems, strong upper-level jets, weakened monsoonal winds, and cyclonic upper-level vorticity. This mode, related to large rainfall anomalies in southeast China and southern Japan, is identified as the mei-yu–baiu phase. The second node represents a distinct circulation state corresponding to a strengthened subtropical high, monsoonal winds, and anticyclonic upper-level vorticity in southeast Korea, which is identified as the changma phase. The third node is related to copious rain over Korea following changma, which we name the postchangma phase. The fourth node is situated diagonally opposite the changma mode. Because Korea experiences a dry spell associated with this SOM node, it is referred to as the dry-spell phase. The authors also demonstrate that a strong modulation of the changma and dry-spell phases on interannual time scales occurs during El Niño and La Niña years. Results imply that the key to predictability of the EASM on interannual time scales may lie with analysis and exploitation of its nonlinear characteristics.

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