Attribution of Atmospheric Variations in the 1997–2003 Period to SST Anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Ocean Basins

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3607-3628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngar-Cheung Lau ◽  
Ants Leetmaa ◽  
Mary Jo Nath
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Zonal Flow ◽  
Meridional Plane ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Atmospheric Variations ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The individual impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the deep tropical eastern–central Pacific (DTEP) and Indo-western–central Pacific (IWP) on the evolution of the observed global atmospheric circulation during the 1997–2003 period have been investigated using a new general circulation model. Ensemble integrations were conducted with monthly varying SST conditions being prescribed separately in the DTEP sector, the IWP sector, and throughout the World Ocean. During the 1998–2002 subperiod, when prolonged La Niña conditions occurred in DTEP and the SST in IWP was above normal, the simulated midlatitude atmospheric responses to SST forcing in the DTEP and IWP sectors reinforced each other. The anomalous geopotential height ridges at 200 mb in the extratropics of both hemispheres exhibited a distinct zonal symmetry. This circulation change was accompanied by extensive dry and warm anomalies in many regions, including North America. During the 1997–98 and 2002–03 El Niño events, the SST conditions in both DTEP and IWP were above normal, and considerable cancellations were simulated between the midlatitude responses to the oceanic forcing from these two sectors. The above findings are contrasted with those for the 1953–58 and 1972–77 periods, which were characterized by analogous SST developments in DTEP, but by cold conditions in IWP. It is concluded that a warm anomaly in IWP and a cold anomaly in DTEP constitute the optimal SST configuration for generating zonally elongated ridges in the midlatitudes. Local diagnoses indicate that the imposed SST anomaly alters the strength of the zonal flow in certain longitudinal sectors, which influences the behavior of synoptic-scale transient eddies farther downstream. The modified eddy momentum transports in the regions of eddy activity in turn feed back on the local mean flow, thus contributing to its zonal elongation. These results are consistent with the inferences drawn from zonal mean analyses, which accentuate the role of the eddy-induced circulation on the meridional plane.

scholarly journals Zonal Flow Regime Changes in a GCM and in a Simple Quasigeostrophic Model: The Role of Stratospheric Dynamics

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (5) ◽  
pp. 1366-1383 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabella Bordi ◽  
Klaus Fraedrich ◽  
Michael Ghil ◽  
Alfonso Sutera
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Zonal Flow ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Single Wave

Abstract The atmospheric general circulation is characterized by both single- and double-jet patterns. The double-jet structure of the zonal mean zonal wind is analyzed in Southern Hemisphere observations for the two calendar months of November and April. The observed features are studied further in an idealized quasigeostrophic and a simplified general circulation model (GCM). Results suggest that capturing the bimodality of the zonal mean flow requires the parameterization of momentum and heat fluxes associated with baroclinic instability of the three-dimensional fields. The role of eddy heat fluxes in generating the observed double-jet pattern is ascertained by using an analytical Eady model with stratospheric easterlies, in which a single wave disturbance interacts with the mean flow. In this model, the dual jets are generated by the zonal mean flow correction. Sensitivity of the results to the tropospheric vertical wind shear (or, equivalently, the meridional temperature gradient in the basic state’s troposphere) is also studied in the Eady model and compared to related experiments using the simplified GCM.

The Relationship between Statistically Linear and Nonlinear Feedbacks and Zonal-Mean Flow Variability in an Idealized Climate Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (2) ◽  
pp. 353-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Kravtsov ◽  
John E. Ten Hoeve ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein ◽  
Sukyoung Lee ◽  
Seok-Woo Son
Keyword(s):  
Phase Space ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Zonal Flow ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Nonlinear Flow ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Flow Variability

Abstract Simulations using an idealized, atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) subjected to various thermal forcings are analyzed via a combination of probability density function (PDF) estimation and spectral analysis techniques. Seven different GCM runs are examined, each model run being characterized by different values in the strength of the tropical heating and high-latitude cooling. For each model run, it is shown that a linear stochastic model constructed in the phase space of the ten leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the zonal-mean zonal flow provides an excellent statistical approximation to the simulated zonal flow variability, which includes zonal index fluctuations, and quasi-oscillatory, poleward, zonal-mean flow anomaly propagation. Statistically significant deviations from the above linear stochastic null hypothesis arise in the form of a few anomalously persistent, or statistically nonlinear, flow patterns, which occupy particular regions of the model’s phase space. Some of these nonlinear regimes occur during certain phases of the poleward propagation; however, such an association is, in general, weak. This indicates that the regimes and oscillations in the model may be governed by distinct dynamical mechanisms.

A Predictability Measure Applied to Seasonal Predictions of the Arctic Oscillation

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (18) ◽  
pp. 4733-4750 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youmin Tang ◽  
Hai Lin ◽  
Jacques Derome ◽  
Michael K. Tippett
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Level ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract In this study, ensemble seasonal predictions of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) were conducted for 51 winters (1948–98) using a simple global atmospheric general circulation model. A means of estimating a priori the predictive skill of the AO ensemble predictions was developed based on the relative entropy (R) of information theory, which is a measure of the difference between the forecast and climatology probability density functions (PDFs). Several important issues related to the AO predictability, such as the dominant precursors of forecast skill and the degree of confidence that can be placed in an individual forecast, were addressed. It was found that R is a useful measure of the confidence that can be placed on dynamical predictions of the AO. When R is large, the prediction is likely to have a high confidence level whereas when R is small, the prediction skill is more variable. A small R is often accompanied by a relatively weak AO index. The value of R is dominated by the predicted ensemble mean. The relationship identified here, between model skills and the R of an ensemble prediction, offers a practical means of estimating the confidence level of a seasonal forecast of the AO using the dynamical model. Through an analysis of the global sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, it was found that the winter AO-related R is correlated significantly with the amplitude of the SST anomalies over the tropical central Pacific and the North Pacific during the previous October. A large value of R is usually associated with strong SST anomalies in the two regions, whereas a poor prediction with a small R indicates that SST anomalies are likely weak in these two regions and the observed AO anomaly in the specific winter is likely caused by atmospheric internal dynamics.

scholarly journals State Dependence of Atmospheric Response to Extratropical North Pacific SST Anomalies

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 509-525 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guidi Zhou ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Richard J. Greatbatch ◽  
Wonsun Park
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Response ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Wave Source ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
Sst Anomalies

By performing two sets of high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, the authors find that the atmospheric response to a sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the extratropical North Pacific is sensitive to decadal variations of the background SST on which the SST anomaly is superimposed. The response in the first set of experiments, in which the SST anomaly is superimposed on the observed daily SST of 1981–90, strongly differs from the response in the second experiment, in which the same SST anomaly is superimposed on the observed daily SST of 1991–2000. The atmospheric response over the North Pacific during 1981–90 is eddy mediated, equivalent barotropic, and concentrated in the east. In contrast, the atmospheric response during 1991–2000 is weaker and strongest in the west. The results are discussed in terms of Rossby wave dynamics, with the proposed primary wave source switching from baroclinic eddy vorticity forcing over the eastern North Pacific in 1981–90 to mean-flow divergence over the western North Pacific in 1991–2000. The wave source changes are linked to the decadal reduction of daily SST variability over the eastern North Pacific and strengthening of the Oyashio Extension front over the western North Pacific. Thus, both daily and frontal aspects of the background SST variability in determining the atmospheric response to extratropical North Pacific SST anomalies are emphasized by these AGCM experiments.

scholarly journals An Eddy-Permitting Southern Ocean State Estimate

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 880-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew R. Mazloff ◽  
Patrick Heimbach ◽  
Carl Wunsch
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Microwave Radiometer ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Great Majority ◽  
Drake Passage ◽  
Volume Transport ◽  
Intermediate Cell

Abstract An eddy-permitting general circulation model of the Southern Ocean is fit by constrained least squares to a large observational dataset during 2005–06. Data used include Argo float profiles, CTD synoptic sections, Southern Elephant Seals as Oceanographic Samplers (SEaOS) instrument-mounted seal profiles, XBTs, altimetric observations [Envisat, Geosat, Jason-1, and Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon], and infrared and microwave radiometer observed sea surface temperature. An adjoint model is used to determine descent directions in minimizing a misfit function, each of whose elements has been weighted by an estimate of the observational plus model error. The model is brought into near agreement with the data by adjusting its control vector, here consisting of initial and meteorological boundary conditions. Although total consistency has not yet been achieved, the existing solution is in good agreement with the great majority of the 2005 and 2006 Southern Ocean observations and better represents these data than does the World Ocean Atlas 2001 (WOA01) climatological product. The estimate captures the oceanic temporal variability and in this respect represents a major improvement upon earlier static inverse estimates. During the estimation period, the Drake Passage volume transport is 153 ± 5 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). The Ross and Weddell polar gyre transports are 20 ± 5 Sv and 40 ± 8 Sv, respectively. Across 32°S there is a surface meridional overturning cell of 12 ± 12 Sv, an intermediate cell of 17 ± 12 Sv, and an abyssal cell of 13 ± 6 Sv. The northward heat and freshwater anomaly transports across 30°S are −0.3 PW and 0.7 Sv, with estimated uncertainties of 0.5 PW and 0.2 Sv. The net rate of wind work is 2.1 ± 1.1 TW. Southern Ocean theories involving short temporal- and spatial-scale dynamics may now be tested with a dynamically and thermodynamically realistic general circulation model solution that is known to be compatible with the modern observational datasets.

Atmospheric general circulation and waves simulated by a Venus AORI GCM with topographical and radiative forcings

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masaru Yamamoto ◽  
Takumi Hirose ◽  
Kohei Ikeda ◽  
Masaaki Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Thermal Tides

<p>General circulation and waves are investigated using a T63 Venus general circulation model (GCM) with solar and thermal radiative transfer in the presence of high-resolution surface topography. This model has been developed by Ikeda (2011) at the Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), the University of Tokyo, and was used in Yamamoto et al. (2019, 2021). In the wind and static stability structures similar to the observed ones, the waves are investigated. Around the cloud-heating maximum (~65 km), the simulated thermal tides accelerate an equatorial superrotational flow with a speed of ~90 m/s<sup></sup>with rates of 0.2–0.5 m/s/(Earth day) via both horizontal and vertical momentum fluxes at low latitudes. Over the high mountains at low latitudes, the vertical wind variance at the cloud top is produced by topographically-fixed, short-period eddies, indicating penetrative plumes and gravity waves. In the solar-fixed coordinate system, the variances (i.e., the activity of waves other than thermal tides) of flow are relatively higher on the night-side than on the dayside at the cloud top. The local-time variation of the vertical eddy momentum flux is produced by both thermal tides and solar-related, small-scale gravity waves. Around the cloud bottom, the 9-day super-rotation of the zonal mean flow has a weak equatorial maximum and the 7.5-day Kelvin-like wave has an equatorial jet-like wind of 60-70 m/s. Because we discussed the thermal tide and topographically stationary wave in Yamamoto et al. (2021), we focus on the short-period eddies in the presentation.</p>

scholarly journals PDO-Related Wintertime Atmospheric Anomalies over the Midlatitude North Pacific: Local versus Remote SST Forcing

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (16) ◽  
pp. 6989-7010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingfeng Tao ◽  
Xiu-Qun Yang ◽  
Jiabei Fang ◽  
Xuguang Sun
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Transient Eddy ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Ridge Structure ◽  
Sst Gradient ◽  
Meridional Sst Gradient ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractObserved wintertime atmospheric anomalies over the central North Pacific associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are characterized by a cold/trough (warm/ridge) structure, that is, an anomalous equivalent barotropic low (high) over a negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly. While the midlatitude atmosphere has its own strong internal variabilities, to what degree local SST anomalies can affect the midlatitude atmospheric variability remains unclear. To identify such an impact, three atmospheric general circulation model experiments each having a 63-yr-long simulation are conducted. The control run forced by observed global SST reproduces well the observed PDO-related cold/trough (warm/ridge) structure. However, the removal of the midlatitude North Pacific SST variabilities in the first sensitivity run reduces the atmospheric response by roughly one-third. In the second sensitivity run in which large-scale North Pacific SST variabilities are mostly kept, but their frontal-scale meridional gradients are sharply smoothed, simulated PDO-related cold/trough (warm/ridge) anomalies are also reduced by nearly one-third. Dynamical diagnoses exhibit that such a reduction is primarily due to the weakened transient eddy activities that are induced by weakened meridional SST gradient anomalies, in which the transient eddy vorticity forcing plays a crucial role. Therefore, it is suggested that midlatitude North Pacific SST anomalies make a considerable (approximately one-third) contribution to the observed PDO-related cold/trough (warm/ridge) anomalies in which the frontal-scale meridional SST gradient (oceanic front) is a key player, although most of those atmospheric anomalies are determined by the SST variabilities outside of the midlatitude North Pacific.

scholarly journals Reintensification of the Anomalous Western North Pacific Anticyclone during the El Niño Modoki Decaying Summer: Relative Importance of Tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST Anomalies

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 3271-3288
Author(s):  
Juan Feng ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Xiaocong Wang
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
El Niño Modoki ◽  
Sst Cooling ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractThe El Niño Modoki–induced anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) undergoes an interesting reintensification process in the El Niño Modoki decaying summer, the period when El Niño Modoki decays but warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and cold SST anomalies over the central-eastern Pacific (CEP) dominate. In this study, the region (TNA or CEP) in which the SST anomalies exert a relatively important influence on reintensification of the WNPAC is investigated. Observational analysis demonstrates that when only anomalous CEP SST cooling occurs, the WNPAC experiences a weak reintensification. In contrast, when only anomalous TNA SST warming emerges, the WNPAC experiences a remarkable reintensification. Numerical simulation analysis demonstrates that even though the same magnitude of CEP SST cooling and TNA warming is respectively set to force the atmospheric general circulation model, the response of the WNPAC is still much stronger in the TNA warming experiment than in the CEP cooling experiment. Further analysis demonstrates that this difference is caused by the distinct location of the effective tropical forcing between the CEP SST cooling and TNA SST warming for producing a WNPAC. The CEP cooling-induced effective anomalous diabatic cooling is located in the central Pacific, by which the forced anticyclone becomes gradually weak from the central Pacific to the western North Pacific. Thus, a weak WNPAC is produced. In contrast, as the TNA SST warming–induced effective anomalous diabatic cooling is just located in the western North Pacific via a Kelvin wave–induced Ekman divergence process, the forced anticyclone is significant and powerful in the western North Pacific.

scholarly journals Dominant Interannual Covariations of the East Asian–Australian Land Precipitation during Boreal Winter

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (11) ◽  
pp. 3279-3296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Liu ◽  
Jianping Guo ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Dipole Structure ◽  
Second Mode ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractThe present study applies the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method to investigate the interannual covariations of East Asian–Australian land precipitation (EAALP) during boreal winter based on observational and reanalysis datasets. The first mode of EAALP variations is characterized by opposite-sign anomalies between East Asia (EA) and Australia (AUS). The second mode features an anomaly pattern over EA similar to the first mode, but with a southwest–northeast dipole structure over AUS. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to be a primary factor in modulating the interannual variations of land precipitation over EA and western AUS. By comparison, the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole mode (IOSD) plays an important role in the formation of precipitation anomalies over northeastern AUS, mainly through a zonal vertical circulation spanning from the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) to northern AUS. In addition, the ENSO-independent cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western North Pacific (WNP) impact the formation of the second mode. Using the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5, three 40-yr numerical simulation experiments differing in specified SST forcings verify the impacts of the IOSD and WNP SST anomalies. Further composite analyses indicate that the dominant patterns of EAALP variability are largely determined by the out-of-phase and in-phase combinations of ENSO and IOSD. These results suggest that in addition to ENSO, IOSD should be considered as another crucial factor influencing the EAALP variability during the boreal winter, which has large implications for improved prediction of EAALP land precipitation on the interannual time scale.

scholarly journals A Geometric Interpretation of Southern Ocean Eddy Form Stress

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (10) ◽  
pp. 2553-2570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mads B. Poulsen ◽  
Markus Jochum ◽  
James R. Maddison ◽  
David P. Marshall ◽  
Roman Nuterman
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Geometric Interpretation ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Geometric Framework ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Circumpolar Current

AbstractAn interpretation of eddy form stress via the geometry described by the Eliassen–Palm flux tensor is explored. Complimentary to previous works on eddy Reynolds stress geometry, this study shows that eddy form stress is fully described by a vertical ellipse, whose size, shape, and orientation with respect to the mean flow shear determine the strength and direction of vertical momentum transfers. Following a recent proposal, this geometric framework is here used to form a Gent–McWilliams eddy transfer coefficient that depends on eddy energy and a nondimensional geometric parameter α, bounded in magnitude by unity. The parameter α expresses the efficiency by which eddies exchange energy with baroclinic mean flow via along-gradient eddy buoyancy flux—a flux equivalent to eddy form stress along mean buoyancy contours. An eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model is used to estimate the spatial structure of α in the Southern Ocean and assess its potential to form a basis for parameterization. The eddy efficiency α averages to a low but positive value of 0.043 within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, consistent with an inefficient eddy field extracting energy from the mean flow. It is found that the low eddy efficiency is mainly the result of that eddy buoyancy fluxes are weakly anisotropic on average. The eddy efficiency is subject to pronounced vertical structure and is maximum at ~3-km depth, where eddy buoyancy fluxes tend to be directed most downgradient. Since α partly sets the eddy form stress in the Southern Ocean, a parameterization for α must reproduce its vertical structure to provide a faithful representation of vertical stress divergence and eddy forcing.

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