Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Snowpack Trends in the Western United States*

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 4545-4561 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan F. Hamlet ◽  
Philip W. Mote ◽  
Martyn P. Clark ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Decadal Scale

Abstract Recent studies have shown substantial declines in snow water equivalent (SWE) over much of the western United States in the last half century, as well as trends toward earlier spring snowmelt and peak spring streamflows. These trends are influenced both by interannual and decadal-scale climate variability, and also by temperature trends at longer time scales that are generally consistent with observations of global warming over the twentieth century. In this study, the linear trends in 1 April SWE over the western United States are examined, as simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model implemented at 1/8° latitude–longitude spatial resolution, and driven by a carefully quality controlled gridded daily precipitation and temperature dataset for the period 1915–2003. The long simulations of snowpack are used as surrogates for observations and are the basis for an analysis of regional trends in snowpack over the western United States and southern British Columbia, Canada. By isolating the trends due to temperature and precipitation in separate simulations, the influence of temperature and precipitation variability on the overall trends in SWE is evaluated. Downward trends in 1 April SWE over the western United States from 1916 to 2003 and 1947 to 2003, and for a time series constructed using two warm Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) epochs concatenated together, are shown to be primarily due to widespread warming. These temperature-related trends are not well explained by decadal climate variability associated with the PDO. Trends in SWE associated with precipitation trends, however, are very different in different time periods and are apparently largely controlled by decadal variability rather than longer-term trends in climate.

scholarly journals Recent Declines in Western U.S. Snowpack in the Context of Twentieth-Century Climate Variability

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
David M. Wolock
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Decadal Scale

Abstract A monthly snow accumulation and melt model was used with monthly Precipitation-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) for 1900 through 2008 in the western United States. Averaged across the western United States, SWE generally was higher than long-term (1900–2008) average conditions during the periods 1900–25, 1944–55, and 1966–82; SWE was lower than long-term average conditions during the periods 1926–43, 1957–65, and 1984–2008. During the period 1900–2008, the temporal pattern in winter precipitation exhibited wetter-than-average and drier-than-average decadal-scale periods with no long-term increasing or decreasing trend. Winter temperature generally was below average from 1900 to the mid-1950s, close to average from the mid-1950s to the mid-1980s, and above average from the mid-1980s to 2008. In general, periods of higher-than-average SWE have been associated with higher precipitation and lower temperature. Since about 1980, western U.S. winter temperatures have been consistently higher than long-term average values, and the resultant lower-than-average SWE values have been only partially offset by periods of higher-than-average precipitation. The post-1980 lower-than-average SWE conditions in the western United States are unprecedented within the context of twentieth-century climate and estimated SWE.

Seasonal Cycle Shifts in Hydroclimatology over the Western United States

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Kumar Regonda ◽  
Balaji Rajagopalan ◽  
Martyn Clark ◽  
John Pitlick
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Northwest Region

Abstract Analyses of streamflow, snow mass temperature, and precipitation in snowmelt-dominated river basins in the western United States indicate an advance in the timing of peak spring season flows over the past 50 years. Warm temperature spells in spring have occurred much earlier in recent years, which explains in part the trend in the timing of the spring peak flow. In addition, a decrease in snow water equivalent and a general increase in winter precipitation are evident for many stations in the western United States. It appears that in recent decades more of the precipitation is coming as rain rather than snow. The trends are strongest at lower elevations and in the Pacific Northwest region, where winter temperatures are closer to the melting point; it appears that in this region in particular, modest shifts in temperature are capable of forcing large shifts in basin hydrologic response. It is speculated that these trends could be potentially a manifestation of the general global warming trend in recent decades and also due to enhanced ENSO activity. The observed trends in hydroclimatology over the western United States can have significant impacts on water resources planning and management.

scholarly journals Cool season precipitation projections for California and the Western United States in NA-CORDEX models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelly Mahoney ◽  
James D. Scott ◽  
Michael Alexander ◽  
Rachel McCrary ◽  
Mimi Hughes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
Projected Change

AbstractUnderstanding future precipitation changes is critical for water supply and flood risk applications in the western United States. The North American COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (NA-CORDEX) matrix of global and regional climate models at multiple resolutions (~ 50-km and 25-km grid spacings) is used to evaluate mean monthly precipitation, extreme daily precipitation, and snow water equivalent (SWE) over the western United States, with a sub-regional focus on California. Results indicate significant model spread in mean monthly precipitation in several key water-sensitive areas in both historical and future projections, but suggest model agreement on increasing daily extreme precipitation magnitudes, decreasing seasonal snowpack, and a shortening of the wet season in California in particular. While the beginning and end of the California cool season are projected to dry according to most models, the core of the cool season (December, January, February) shows an overall wetter projected change pattern. Daily cool-season precipitation extremes generally increase for most models, particularly in California in the mid-winter months. Finally, a marked projected decrease in future seasonal SWE is found across all models, accompanied by earlier dates of maximum seasonal SWE, and thus a shortening of the period of snow cover as well. Results are discussed in the context of how the diverse model membership and variable resolutions offered by the NA-CORDEX ensemble can be best leveraged by stakeholders faced with future water planning challenges.

scholarly journals Seasonal and Ephemeral Snowpacks of the Conterminous United States

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Benjamin J. Hatchett
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
At Risk ◽  
New England ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Seasonal Snow ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Lower Elevation ◽  
Precipitation Estimates

Snowpack seasonality in the conterminous United States (U.S.) is examined using a recently-released daily, 4 km spatial resolution gridded snow water equivalent and snow depth product developed by assimilating station-based observations and gridded temperature and precipitation estimates from PRISM. Seasonal snowpacks for the period spanning water years 1982–2017 were calculated using two established methods: (1) the classic Sturm approach that requires 60 days of snow cover with a peak depth >50 cm and (2) the snow seasonality metric (SSM) that only requires 60 days of continuous snow cover to define seasonal snow. The latter approach yields continuous values from −1 to +1, where −1 (+1) indicates an ephemeral (seasonal) snowpack. The SSM approach is novel in its ability to identify both seasonal and ephemeral snowpacks. Both approaches identify seasonal snowpacks in western U.S. mountains and the northern central and eastern U.S. The SSM approach identifies greater areas of seasonal snowpacks compared to the Sturm method, particularly in the Upper Midwest, New England, and the Intermountain West. This is a result of the relaxed depth constraint compared to the Sturm approach. Ephemeral snowpacks exist throughout lower elevation regions of the western U.S. and across a broad longitudinal swath centered near 35° N spanning the lee of the Rocky Mountains to the Atlantic coast. Because it lacks a depth constraint, the SSM approach may inform the location of shallow but long-duration snowpacks at risk of transitioning to ephemeral snowpacks with climatic change. A case study in Oregon during an extreme snow drought year (2014/2015) highlights seasonal to ephemeral snowpack transitions. Aggregating seasonal and ephemeral snowpacks to the HUC-8 watershed level in the western U.S. demonstrates the majority of watersheds are at risk of losing seasonal snow.

scholarly journals Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Mountain Snowpack in the Western United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (24) ◽  
pp. 9921-9940 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Goldenson ◽  
L. R. Leung ◽  
C. M. Bitz ◽  
E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Region Of Interest ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Atmospheric River ◽  
The Impact

In the coastal mountains of western North America, most extreme precipitation is associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow bands of moisture originating in the tropics. Here we quantify how interannual variability in atmospheric rivers influences snowpack in the western United States in observations and a model. We simulate the historical climate with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) with physics from the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 [CAM5 (MPAS-CAM5)], using prescribed sea surface temperatures. In the global variable-resolution domain, regional refinement (at ~30 km) is applied to our region of interest and upwind over the northeast Pacific. To better characterize internal variability, we conduct simulations with three ensemble members over 30 years of the historical period. In the Cascade Range, with some exceptions, winters with more atmospheric river days are associated with less snowpack. In California’s Sierra Nevada, winters with more ARs are associated with greater snowpack. The slope of the linear regression of observed snow water equivalent (SWE) on reanalysis-based AR count has the same sign as that arrived at using the model, but is statistically significant in observations only for California. In spring, internal variance plays an important role in determining whether atmospheric river days appear to be associated with greater or less snowpack. The cumulative (winter through spring) number of atmospheric river days, on the other hand, has a relationship with spring snowpack, which is consistent across ensemble members. Thus, the impact of atmospheric rivers on winter snowpack has a greater influence on spring snowpack than spring atmospheric rivers in the model for both regions and in California consistently in observations.

scholarly journals Inconsistent decadal variations between surface and free tropospheric nitrogen oxides over United States

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Jiang ◽  
Helen Worden ◽  
John R. Worden ◽  
Daven K. Henze ◽  
Dylan B. A. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Nitrogen Oxides ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Long Range ◽  
North American ◽  
Long Range Transport ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Range Transport

Abstract. Decreases in surface emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) in North America have led to substantial improvements in air-quality over the last several decades. Here we show that satellite observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns over the contiguous United States (US) do not decrease after about 2009, while surface NO2 concentrations continue to decline through to the present. This divergence, if it continues, could have a substantial impact on surface air quality due to mixing of free-tropospheric air into the boundary layer. Our results show only limited contributions from local effects such as fossil fuel emissions, lightning, or instrument artifacts, but we do find a possible relationship of NO2 changes to decadal climate variability. Our analysis demonstrates that the intensity of transpacific transport is stronger in El Niño years and weaker in La Niña years, and consequently, that decadal-scale climate variability impacts the contribution of Asian emissions on North American atmospheric composition. Because of the short lifetime, it is usually believed that the direct contribution of long-range transport to tropospheric NOx distribution is limited. If our hypothesis about transported Asian emissions is correct, then this observed divergence between satellite and surface NOx could indicate mechanisms that allow for either NOx or its reservoir species to have a larger than expected effect on North American tropospheric composition. These results therefore suggest more aircraft and satellite studies to determine the possible missing processes in our understanding of the long-range transport of tropospheric NOx.

scholarly journals Improving gridded snow water equivalent products in British Columbia, Canada: multi-source data fusion by neural network models

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 891-905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew M. Snauffer ◽  
William W. Hsieh ◽  
Alex J. Cannon ◽  
Markus A. Schnorbus
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
British Columbia ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Vegetation Density ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract. Estimates of surface snow water equivalent (SWE) in mixed alpine environments with seasonal melts are particularly difficult in areas of high vegetation density, topographic relief, and snow accumulations. These three confounding factors dominate much of the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada. An artificial neural network (ANN) was created using as predictors six gridded SWE products previously evaluated for BC. Relevant spatiotemporal covariates were also included as predictors, and observations from manual snow surveys at stations located throughout BC were used as target data. Mean absolute errors (MAEs) and interannual correlations for April surveys were found using cross-validation. The ANN using the three best-performing SWE products (ANN3) had the lowest mean station MAE across the province. ANN3 outperformed each product as well as product means and multiple linear regression (MLR) models in all of BC's five physiographic regions except for the BC Plains. Subsequent comparisons with predictions generated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model found ANN3 to better estimate SWE over the VIC domain and within most regions. The superior performance of ANN3 over the individual products, product means, MLR, and VIC was found to be statistically significant across the province.

Avalanche Fatalities during Atmospheric River Events in the Western United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1359-1374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin J. Hatchett ◽  
Susan Burak ◽  
Jonathan J. Rutz ◽  
Nina S. Oakley ◽  
Edward H. Bair ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Vapor Transport ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Snow Avalanche ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Avalanche Forecasting ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract The occurrence of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in association with avalanche fatalities is evaluated in the conterminous western United States between 1998 and 2014 using archived avalanche reports, atmospheric reanalysis products, an existing AR catalog, and weather station observations. AR conditions were present during or preceding 105 unique avalanche incidents resulting in 123 fatalities, thus comprising 31% of western U.S. avalanche fatalities. Coastal snow avalanche climates had the highest percentage of avalanche fatalities coinciding with AR conditions (31%–65%), followed by intermountain (25%–46%) and continental snow avalanche climates (<25%). Ratios of avalanche deaths during AR conditions to total AR days increased with distance from the coast. Frequent heavy to extreme precipitation (85th–99th percentile) during ARs favored critical snowpack loading rates with mean snow water equivalent increases of 46 mm. Results demonstrate that there exists regional consistency between snow avalanche climates, derived AR contributions to cool season precipitation, and percentages of avalanche fatalities during ARs. The intensity of water vapor transport and topographic corridors favoring inland water vapor transport may be used to help identify periods of increased avalanche hazard in intermountain and continental snow avalanche climates prior to AR landfall. Several recently developed AR forecast tools applicable to avalanche forecasting are highlighted.

scholarly journals Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 3169-3207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Hailan Wang ◽  
Randal D. Koster ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
Pavel Ya. Groisman
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Warming World

Abstract This article reviews the understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5). Key new results are 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave); 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST; and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in the understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document