scholarly journals Interannual Variability of Patterns of Atmospheric Mass Distribution

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 2812-2825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
David P. Stepaniak ◽  
Lesley Smith
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Eof Analysis ◽  
Global Mode ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Global Patterns ◽  
Cseof Analysis ◽  
Atmospheric Mass

Abstract Using the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) for 1958 to 2001, adjusted for bias over the southern oceans prior to 1979, an analysis is made of global patterns of monthly mean anomalies of atmospheric mass, which is approximately conserved globally. It differs from previous analyses of atmospheric circulation by effectively area weighting surface or sea level pressure that diminishes the role of high latitudes. To examine whether global patterns of behavior exist requires analysis of all seasons together (as opposite seasons occur in each hemisphere). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, R-mode varimax-rotated EOF analysis, and cyclostationary EOF (CSEOF) analysis tools are used to explore patterns and variability on interannual and longer time scales. Clarification is given of varimax terminology and procedures that have been previously misinterpreted. The dominant global monthly variability overall is associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM), which is active in all months of the year. However, it is not very coherent from month to month and exhibits a great deal of natural unforced variability. The third most important pattern is the Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM) and associated North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the equivalent Northern Hemisphere expression. Neither of these is really a global mode, although they covary on long time scales in association with tropical or external forcing. For monthly data, the second mode is coherent with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures and thus corresponds to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is truly global in extent. It exhibits more coherent evolution with time and projects strongest onto the interannual variability, where it stands out by far as the dominant mode in the CSEOF analysis. The CSEOF analysis extracts the patterns phase locked with annual cycle and reveals their evolution throughout the year. Standard EOF and varimax analyses are not able to evolve with time of year unless the analysis is stratified by season. Varimax analysis is able to extract the SAM, NAM, and ENSO modes very well, however.

Response of the Southern Ocean to the Southern Annular Mode: Interannual Variability and Multidecadal Trend

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (7) ◽  
pp. 1659-1668 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. M. Treguier ◽  
J. Le Sommer ◽  
J. M. Molines ◽  
B. de Cuevas
Keyword(s):  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Eddy Kinetic Energy ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract The authors evaluate the response of the Southern Ocean to the variability and multidecadal trend of the southern annular mode (SAM) from 1972 to 2001 in a global eddy-permitting model of the DRAKKAR project. The transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is correlated with the SAM at interannual time scales but exhibits a drift because of the thermodynamic adjustment of the model (the ACC transport decreases because of a low renewal rate of dense waters around Antarctica). The interannual variability of the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and the ACC transport are uncorrelated, but the EKE decreases like the ACC transport over the three decades, even though meridional eddy fluxes of heat and buoyancy remain stable. The contribution of oceanic eddies to meridional transports is an important issue because a growth of the poleward eddy transport could, in theory, oppose the increase of the mean overturning circulation forced by the SAM. In the authors’ model, the total meridional circulation at 50°S is well correlated with the SAM index (and the Ekman transport) at interannual time scales, and both increase over three decades between 1972 and 2001. However, given the long-term drift, no SAM-linked trend in the eddy contribution to the meridional overturning circulation is detectable. The increase of the meridional overturning is due to the time-mean component and is compensated by an increased buoyancy gain at the surface. The authors emphasize that the meridional circulation does not vary in a simple relationship with the zonal circulation. The model solution points out that the zonal circulation and the eddy kinetic energy are governed by different mechanisms according to the time scale considered (interannual or decadal).

scholarly journals Changes in Global Blocking Character in Recent Decades

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Lupo ◽  
Andrew Jensen ◽  
Igor Mokhov ◽  
Alexander Timazhev ◽  
Timothy Eichler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Late 20Th Century ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Comprehensive List ◽  
Interannual Scale

A global blocking climatology published by this group for events that occurred during the late 20th century examined a comprehensive list of characteristics that included block intensity (BI). In addition to confirming the results of other published climatologies, they found that Northern Hemisphere (NH) blocking events (1968–1998) were stronger than Southern Hemisphere (SH) blocks and winter events are stronger than summer events in both hemispheres. This work also examined the interannual variability of blocking as related to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Since the late 20th century, there is evidence that the occurrence of blocking has increased globally. A comparison of blocking characteristics since 1998 (1998–2018 NH; 2000–2018 SH) shows that the number of blocking events and their duration have increased significantly in both hemispheres. The blocking BI has decreased by about six percent in the NH, but there was little change in the BI for the SH events. Additionally, there is little or no change in the primary genesis regions of blocking. An examination of variability related to ENSO reveals that the NH interannual-scale variations found in the earlier work has reversed in the early 21st century. This could either be the result of interdecadal variability or a change in the climate. Interdecadal variations are examined as well.

scholarly journals A Midlatitude Climatology and Interannual Variability of 200- and 500-hPa Cut-Off Lows

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 2201-2222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristian Muñoz ◽  
David Schultz ◽  
Geraint Vaughan
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Annular Modes ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Consistent Method ◽  
Cold Core

AbstractA climatology of midlatitude 200- and 500-hPa cut-off low systems in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is constructed from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis by detecting and tracking, under one consistent method, all of the systems that persisted for more than 36 h for the 58 years of 1960–2017. This method identifies a cut-off low as a cold-core geopotential height minimum that is isolated from the main westerlies and with a strong temperature gradient on its eastern flank. The obtained spatial and seasonal distributions show preferred regions of occurrence and that within these regions there is a level-dependent seasonality of cut-off lows. Whereas 200-hPa systems are more frequent in summer and autumn, 500-hPa systems are more evenly distributed throughout the seasons. Within each region and at each level, the annual number of cut-off lows has been increasing over time, trends that are consistent with documented signals of climate change such as a weakening and poleward shift of the subtropical jets and an increase in blocking frequency. These trends explain as much as 64% of the variance in the annual number of cut-off lows. The contribution of the annular modes and El Niño–Southern Oscillation to the interannual variability of the number of cut-off lows per season in each hemisphere is also investigated. Only the Northern Hemisphere annular mode has a statistically significant negative correlation throughout all seasons that explains 18%–45% of the variance in the yearly number of Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa cut-off lows.

The Continuum of Wintertime Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns*,+

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (24) ◽  
pp. 9507-9529 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chueh-Hsin Chang ◽  
Nathaniel C. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
Oscillatory Behavior ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
Zonal Wavenumber ◽  
The Continuum

Abstract This study uses the method of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to categorize the June–August atmospheric teleconnections in the 500-hPa geopotential height field of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics. This approach yields 12 SOM patterns that provide a discretized representation of the continuum of SH teleconnection patterns from 1979 to 2012. These 12 patterns are large in spatial scale, exhibiting a mix of annular mode characteristics and wave trains of zonal wavenumber varying from 2 to 4. All patterns vary with intrinsic time scales of about 5–10 days, but some patterns exhibit quasi-oscillatory behavior over a period of 20–30 days, whereas still others exhibit statistically significant enhanced and suppressed frequencies up to about four weeks in association with the Madden–Julian oscillation. Two patterns are significantly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual time scales. All 12 patterns have strong influences on surface air temperature and sea ice concentrations, with the sea ice response occurring over a time scale of about 2–4 weeks. The austral winter has featured a positive frequency trend in patterns that project onto the negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM) and a negative frequency trend in positive SAM-like patterns. Such atmospheric circulation trends over 34 yr may arise through atmospheric internal variability alone, and, unlike other seasons in the SH, it is not necessary to invoke external forcing as a dominant source of circulation trends.

scholarly journals Energetics of the Tropical Atlantic Zonal Mode

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (21) ◽  
pp. 7442-7466 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. J. Burls ◽  
C. J. C Reason ◽  
P. Penven ◽  
S. G. Philander
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
The Pacific

Sea surface temperature in the central-eastern equatorial Atlantic has a seasonal cycle far bigger than that of the Pacific, but interannual anomalies smaller than those of the Pacific. Given the amplitude of seasonal SST variability, one wonders whether the seasonal cycle in the Atlantic is so dominant that it is able to strongly influence the evolution of its interannual variability. In this study, interannual upper-ocean variability within the tropical Atlantic is viewed from an energetics perspective, and the role of ocean dynamics, in particular the role of ocean memory, within zonal mode events is investigated. Unlike in the Pacific where seasonal and interannual variability involve distinctly different processes, the results suggest that the latter is a modulation of the former in the Atlantic, whose seasonal cycle has similarities with El Niño and La Niña in the Pacific. The ocean memory mechanism associated with the zonal mode appears to operate on much shorter time scales than that associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, largely being associated with interannual modulations of a seasonally active delayed negative feedback response. Differences between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the zonal mode can then be accounted for in terms of these distinctions. Anomalous wind power over the tropical Atlantic is shown to be a potential predictor for zonal mode events. However, because zonal mode events are due to a modulation of seasonally active coupled processes, and not independent processes operating on interannual time scales as seen in the Pacific, the lead time of this potential predictability is limited.

scholarly journals Variability of residence time in the Tropical Tropopause Layer during Northern Hemisphere winter

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 12597-12614 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Krüger ◽  
S. Tegtmeier ◽  
M. Rex
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Residence Time ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Duration Time ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

Abstract. For the first time the long-term interannual and spatial variability of residence time (τ) is presented for the TTL between 360 K and 400 K theta (~14 to 18 km altitude). The analysis is based on a Lagrangian approach using offline calculated diabatic heating rates as vertical velocities, covering Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters from 1962–2004. The residence time varies spatially. τ, analysed for the Lagrangian Cold Point (LCP), displays a longer duration time of air parcels between LCP and 400 K over the maritime continent (>50 days), as the LCP tropopause has a minimum over the maritime continent (<370 K theta). Comparing three theta layers within the TTL reveals the vertical dependence of τ. We derive a mean duration time of 34 days for 360–380 K (lower TTL), 38 days for 380–400 K (upper TTL) and 70 days for 360–400 K theta layers for the 1962–2001 period. A case analysis reveals, that τ is positively skewed for 360–380 K and 380–400 K during La Niña and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral years. For these cases, ~60% of air parcels travel from 360 K to 380 K within 25 days. There is large interannual variability for τ varying up to ±20% from the long-term mean, with strongest variability seen in the lower part of the TTL. The interannual variability is influenced by extratropical and subtropical wave driving. Statistical analysis reveals a significant anti-correlation between the residence time and the extratropical and subtropical wave driving in the lowermost stratosphere.

scholarly journals Complex network approach for detecting tropical cyclones

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shraddha Gupta ◽  
Niklas Boers ◽  
Florian Pappenberger ◽  
Jürgen Kurths
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Complex Network ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Network Approach ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Climate Networks

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural hazards that pose a serious threat to society, particularly to those in the coastal regions. In this work, we study the temporal evolution of the regional weather conditions in relation to the occurrence of TCs using climate networks. Climate networks encode the interactions among climate variables at different locations on the Earth’s surface, and in particular, time-evolving climate networks have been successfully applied to study different climate phenomena at comparably long time scales, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, different monsoon systems, or the climatic impacts of volcanic eruptions. Here, we develop and apply a complex network approach suitable for the investigation of the relatively short-lived TCs. We show that our proposed methodology has the potential to identify TCs and their tracks from mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. We use the ERA5 reanalysis MSLP data to construct successive networks of overlapping, short-length time windows for the regions under consideration, where we focus on the north Indian Ocean and the tropical north Atlantic Ocean. We compare the spatial features of various topological properties of the network, and the spatial scales involved, in the absence and presence of a cyclone. We find that network measures such as degree and clustering exhibit significant signatures of TCs and have striking similarities with their tracks. The study of the network topology over time scales relevant to TCs allows us to obtain crucial insights into the effects of TCs on the spatial connectivity structure of sea-level pressure fields.

Northern hemisphere atmospheric response to changes of atlantic ocean SST on decadal time scales: a GCM experiment

1990 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 157-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Hense ◽  
Rita Glowienka-Hense ◽  
Hans von Storch ◽  
Ursula Stähler
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Atmospheric Response
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