scholarly journals Forced Annular Mode Patterns in a Simple Atmospheric General Circulation Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (10) ◽  
pp. 3611-3626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Ring ◽  
R. Alan Plumb
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Zonal Flow ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Dominant Mode ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Annular Modes ◽  
Symmetric Version ◽  
Direct Forcing ◽  
Eddy Fluxes

Abstract Previous studies using simplified general circulation models have shown that “annular modes” arise as the dominant mode of variability. A simple GCM is used here to explore to what extent these modes are also the preferred response of the system to generic forcing. A number of trials are conducted under which the model is subjected to an artificial, zonally symmetric angular momentum forcing, and the climatologies of these trials are compared to that of the control. The forcing location is varied among the several trials. It is found that the changes in the model’s climatology are generally annular mode–like, as long as the imposed forcing projects strongly upon the annular modes of the unforced model. The role of changes to the eddy–zonal flow feedback versus the action of direct forcing is also considered through the use of a zonally symmetric version of the model. It is found that the direct responses to forcing are insufficient to capture either the strength or the structure of the annular mode responses. Instead, the changes in eddy fluxes are needed to produce the correct responses.

scholarly journals The Response of a Simplified GCM to Axisymmetric Forcings: Applicability of the Fluctuation–Dissipation Theorem

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (12) ◽  
pp. 3880-3898 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Ring ◽  
R. Alan Plumb
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Quantitative Relationship ◽  
Model Atmosphere ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Annular Modes ◽  
Fluctuation Dissipation ◽  
Fluctuation Dissipation Theorem ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Following on their previous work, in which they found the annular modes to be a preferred response of a simplified general circulation model atmosphere to a number of mechanical forcings, the authors now explore the quantitative relationship between forcing and response. In particular, the applicability of the fluctuation–dissipation theorem to this problem is investigated. First, the set of model trials is expanded by including runs in which the applied forcings are thermal rather than mechanical. For thermal forcings confined to the extratropics, “annular mode–like” responses, reminiscent of those found in earlier work, are found, but, as found in previous studies, the response is less like an annular mode when the forcing has significant amplitude in the tropics. Assuming small departures from the control climatology, and making a few further assumptions, the authors derive a theoretical relationship between forcing and response. This relationship is a statement of the fluctuation–dissipation theorem for this problem. The response of the model is found to be qualitatively consistent with the theoretical predictions. However, several aspects of the response diverge quantitatively from the theoretical expectation.

scholarly journals Using Different Formulations of the Transformed Eulerian Mean Equations and Eliassen–Palm Diagnostics in General Circulation Models

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 1983-1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven C. Hardiman ◽  
David G. Andrews ◽  
Andy A. White ◽  
Neal Butchart ◽  
Ian Edmond
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Primitive Equations ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Vertical Coordinate ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Transformed Eulerian Mean

Abstract Transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) equations and Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux diagnostics are presented for the general nonhydrostatic, fully compressible, deep atmosphere formulation of the primitive equations in spherical geometric coordinates. The TEM equations are applied to a general circulation model (GCM) based on these general primitive equations. It is demonstrated that a naive application in this model of the widely used approximations to the EP diagnostics, valid for the hydrostatic primitive equations using log-pressure as a vertical coordinate and presented, for example, by Andrews et al. in 1987 can lead to misleading features in these diagnostics. These features can be of the same order of magnitude as the diagnostics themselves throughout the winter stratosphere. Similar conclusions are found to hold for “downward control” calculations. The reasons are traced to the change of vertical coordinate from geometric height to log-pressure. Implications for the modeling community, including comparison of model output with that from reanalysis products available only on pressure surfaces, are discussed.

scholarly journals Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Historical Climatic Conditions?

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Bock ◽  
Lauren E. Hay ◽  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
R. Dwight Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Ks Test

Abstract The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

scholarly journals Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 24085-24125 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. M. Leibensperger ◽  
L. J. Mickley ◽  
D. J. Jacob ◽  
W.-T. Chen ◽  
J. H. Seinfeld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Sources ◽  
So2 Emissions ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Climatic Effects ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Direct Forcing

Abstract. We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model combined with the GISS general circulation model to calculate the aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period, based on historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. The aerosol simulation is evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that it peaked in 1970–1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100° W) of −2.0 W m−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0 W m−2), nitrate (−0.2 W m−2), organic carbon (−0.2 W m−2), and black carbon (+0.4 W m−2). The aerosol indirect effect is of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8 W m−2 direct and 1.0 W m−2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60 % from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources may have already been realized by 2010, however some additional warming is expected through 2020. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3 W m−2 over the eastern US in 2010) suggests that an emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

scholarly journals Tracking Scheme Dependence of Simulated Tropical Cyclone Response to Idealized Climate Simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (24) ◽  
pp. 9197-9213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Horn ◽  
Kevin Walsh ◽  
Ming Zhao ◽  
Suzana J. Camargo ◽  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Sensitivity Testing

Abstract Future tropical cyclone activity is a topic of great scientific and societal interest. In the absence of a climate theory of tropical cyclogenesis, general circulation models are the primary tool available for investigating the issue. However, the identification of tropical cyclones in model data at moderate resolution is complex, and numerous schemes have been developed for their detection. The influence of different tracking schemes on detected tropical cyclone activity and responses in the Hurricane Working Group experiments is examined herein. These are idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments aimed at determining and distinguishing the effects of increased sea surface temperature and other increased CO2 effects on tropical cyclone activity. Two tracking schemes are applied to these data and the tracks provided by each modeling group are analyzed. The results herein indicate moderate agreement between the different tracking methods, with some models and experiments showing better agreement across schemes than others. When comparing responses between experiments, it is found that much of the disagreement between schemes is due to differences in duration, wind speed, and formation-latitude thresholds. After homogenization in these thresholds, agreement between different tracking methods is improved. However, much disagreement remains, accountable for by more fundamental differences between the tracking schemes. The results indicate that sensitivity testing and selection of objective thresholds are the key factors in obtaining meaningful, reproducible results when tracking tropical cyclones in climate model data at these resolutions, but that more fundamental differences between tracking methods can also have a significant impact on the responses in activity detected.

scholarly journals Ocean Eddy Energetics in the Spectral Space as Revealed by High-Resolution General Circulation Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (11) ◽  
pp. 2815-2827
Author(s):  
Shengpeng Wang ◽  
Zhao Jing ◽  
Qiuying Zhang ◽  
Ping Chang ◽  
Zhaohui Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Conversion ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Energy Cascade ◽  
Spectral Space ◽  
Inverse Energy Cascade ◽  
Barotropic Energy Conversion

AbstractIn this study, the global eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget in horizontal wavenumber space is analyzed based on 1/10° ocean general circulation model simulations. In both the tropical and midlatitude regions, the barotropic energy conversion from background flow to eddies is positive throughout the wavenumber space and generally peaks at the scale (Le) where EKE reaches its maximum. The baroclinic energy conversion is more pronounced at midlatitudes. It exhibits a dipolar structure with positive and negative values at scales smaller and larger than Le, respectively. Surface wind power on geostrophic flow results in a significant EKE loss around Le but deposits energy at larger scales. The interior viscous dissipation and bottom drag inferred from the pressure flux convergence act as EKE sink terms. The latter is most efficient at Le while the former is more dominant at smaller scales. There is an evident mismatch between EKE generation and dissipation in the spectral space especially at the midlatitudes. This is reconciled by a dominant forward energy cascade on the equator and a dominant inverse energy cascade at the midlatitudes.

scholarly journals Performance Assessment of General Circulation Model in Simulating Daily Precipitation and Temperature Using Multiple Gridded Datasets

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najeebullah Khan ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Kamal Ahmed ◽  
Tarmizi Ismail ◽  
Nadeem Nawaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Gridded Data ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Meteorological Forcing ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Feature Selection Approach

The performance of general circulation models (GCMs) in a region are generally assessed according to their capability to simulate historical temperature and precipitation of the region. The performance of 31 GCMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) is evaluated in this study to identify a suitable ensemble for daily maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation for Pakistan using multiple sets of gridded data, namely: Asian Precipitation–Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE), Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing (PGF) and Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) data. An entropy-based robust feature selection approach known as symmetrical uncertainty (SU) is used for the ranking of GCM. It is known from the results of this study that the spatial distribution of best-ranked GCMs varies for different sets of gridded data. The performance of GCMs is also found to vary for both temperatures and precipitation. The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia (CSIRO)-Mk3-6-0 and Max Planck Institute (MPI)-ESM-LR perform well for temperature while EC-Earth and MIROC5 perform well for precipitation. A trade-off is formulated to select the common GCMs for different climatic variables and gridded data sets, which identify six GCMs, namely: ACCESS1-3, CESM1-BGC, CMCC-CM, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 for the reliable projection of temperature and precipitation of Pakistan.

A Series of Zonal Jets Embedded in the Broad Zonal Flows in the Pacific Obtained in Eddy-Permitting Ocean General Circulation Models

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hideyuki Nakano ◽  
Hiroyasu Hasumi
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Bottom Topography ◽  
Zonal Flow ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Wind Forcing ◽  
Zonal Flows ◽  
Zonal Jets ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Models ◽  
Ocean General Circulation

Abstract A series of zonal currents in the Pacific Ocean is investigated using eddy-permitting ocean general circulation models. The zonal currents in the subsurface are classified into two parts: one is a series of broad zonal flows that has the meridional pattern slanting poleward with increasing depth and the other is finescale zonal jets with the meridional scale of 3°–5° formed in each broad zonal flow. The basic pattern for the broad zonal flows is similar between the coarse-resolution model and the eddy-permitting model and is thought to be the response to the wind forcing. A part of the zonal jets embedded in each zonal flow is explained by the anomalous local wind forcing. Most of them, however, seem to be mainly created by the rectification of turbulent processes on a β plane (the Rhines effect), and zonal jets in this study have common features with the zonally elongated flows obtained in previous modeling studies conducted in idealized basins. The position of zonal jets is not stable when the ocean floor is flat, whereas it oscillates only within a few degrees under realistic bottom topography.

The Dynamical Response to Snow Cover Perturbations in a Large Ensemble of Atmospheric GCM Integrations

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 1208-1222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher G. Fletcher ◽  
Steven C. Hardiman ◽  
Paul J. Kushner ◽  
Judah Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Wave Activity ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Fall Season ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Northern Annular Mode

Abstract Variability in the extent of fall season snow cover over the Eurasian sector has been linked in observations to a teleconnection with the winter northern annular mode pattern. Here, the dynamics of this teleconnection are investigated using a 100-member ensemble of transient integrations of the GFDL atmospheric general circulation model (AM2). The model is perturbed with a simple persisted snow anomaly over Siberia and is integrated from October through December. Strong surface cooling occurs above the anomalous Siberian snow cover, which produces a tropospheric form stress anomaly associated with the vertical propagation of wave activity. This wave activity response drives wave–mean flow interaction in the lower stratosphere and subsequent downward propagation of a negative-phase northern annular mode response back into the troposphere. A wintertime coupled stratosphere–troposphere response to fall season snow forcing is also found to occur even when the snow forcing itself does not persist into winter. Finally, the response to snow forcing is compared in versions of the same model with and without a well-resolved stratosphere. The version with the well-resolved stratosphere exhibits a faster and weaker response to snow forcing, and this difference is tied to the unrealistic representation of the unforced lower-stratospheric circulation in that model.

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