Simulating the Seasonal Cycle of the Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks Using Idealized Nonlinear Storm-Track Models

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (7) ◽  
pp. 2309-2331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund K. M. Chang ◽  
Pablo Zurita-Gotor
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Nonlinear Model ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Seasonal Evolution ◽  
Wave Development

Abstract In this study, an idealized nonlinear model is used to investigate whether dry dynamical factors alone are sufficient for explaining the observed seasonal modulation of the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks during the cool season. By construction, the model does an excellent job simulating the seasonal evolution of the climatological stationary waves. Yet even under this realistic mean flow, the seasonal modulation in storm-track amplitude predicted by the model is deficient over both ocean basins. The model exhibits a stronger sensitivity to the mean flow baroclinicity than observed, producing too-large midwinter eddy amplitudes compared to fall and spring. This is the case not only over the Pacific, where the observed midwinter minimum is barely apparent in the model simulations, but also over the Atlantic, where the October/April eddy amplitudes are also too weak when the January amplitude is tuned to be about right. The nonlinear model generally produces stronger eddy amplitude with stronger baroclinicity, even in the presence of concomitant stronger deformation due to the enhanced stationary wave. The same was found to be the case in a simpler quasigeostrophic model, in which the eddy amplitude nearly always increases with baroclinicity, and deformation only limits the maximum eddy amplitude when the baroclinicity is unrealistically weak. Overall, these results suggest that it is unlikely that dry dynamical effects alone, such as deformation, can fully explain the observed Pacific midwinter minimum in eddy amplitude. It is argued that one should take into account the seasonal evolution of the impacts of diabatic heating on baroclinic wave development in order to fully explain the seasonal cycle of the storm tracks. A set of highly idealized experiments that attempts to represent some of the impacts of moist heating is presented in an appendix to suggest that deficiencies in the model-simulated seasonal cycle of both storm tracks may be corrected when these effects, together with observed seasonal changes in mean flow structure, are taken into account.

Observed Patterns of Month-to-Month Storm-Track Variability and Their Relationship to the Background Flow*

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (5) ◽  
pp. 1420-1437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin J. Wettstein ◽  
John M. Wallace
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Geopotential Height ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
The North ◽  
Jet Variability ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Month-to-month storm-track variability is investigated via EOF analyses performed on ERA-40 monthly-averaged high-pass filtered daily 850-hPa meridional heat flux and the variances of 300-hPa meridional wind and 500-hPa height. The analysis is performed both in hemispheric and sectoral domains of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Patterns characterized as “pulsing” and “latitudinal shifting” of the climatological-mean storm tracks emerge as the leading sectoral patterns of variability. Based on the analysis presented, storm-track variability on the spatial scale of the two Northern Hemisphere sectors appears to be largely, but perhaps not completely, independent. Pulsing and latitudinally shifting storm tracks are accompanied by zonal wind anomalies consistent with eddy-forced accelerations and geopotential height anomalies that project strongly on the dominant patterns of geopotential height variability. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)–Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM) is associated with a pulsing of the Atlantic storm track and a meridional displacement of the upper-tropospheric jet exit region, whereas the eastern Atlantic (EA) pattern is associated with a latitudinally shifting storm track and an extension or retraction of the upper-tropospheric jet. Analogous patterns of storm-track and upper-tropospheric jet variability are associated with the western Pacific (WP) and Pacific–North America (PNA) patterns. Wave–mean flow relationships shown here are more clearly defined than in previous studies and are shown to extend through the depth of the troposphere. The Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) is associated with a latitudinally shifting storm track over the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans and a pulsing South Pacific storm track. The patterns of storm-track variability are shown to be related to simple distortions of the climatological-mean upper-tropospheric jet.

scholarly journals Diabatic and Orographic Forcing of Northern Winter Stationary Waves and Storm Tracks

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 670-688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund K. M. Chang
Keyword(s):  
Storm Track ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Minor Role ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Eddy Fluxes

Abstract In this study, a dry global circulation model is used to examine the contributions made by orographic and diabatic forcings in shaping the zonal asymmetries in the earth’s Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter climate. By design, the model mean flow is forced to bear a close resemblance to the observed zonal mean and stationary waves. The model also provides a decent simulation of the storm tracks. In particular, the maxima over the Pacific and Atlantic, and minima over Asia and North America, are fairly well simulated. The model also successfully simulates the observation that the Atlantic storm track is stronger than the Pacific storm track, despite stronger baroclinicity over the Pacific. Sensitivity experiments are performed by imposing and removing various parts of the total forcings. In terms of the NH winter stationary waves in the upper troposphere, results of this study are largely consistent with previous studies. Diabatic forcings explain most of the modeled stationary waves, with orographic forcings playing only a secondary role, and feedbacks due to eddy fluxes probably play only minor roles in most cases. Nevertheless, results of this study suggest that eddy fluxes may be important in modifying the response to orographic forcings in the absence of zonal asymmetries in diabatic heating. On the other hand, unlike the conclusion reached by previous studies, it is argued that the convergence of eddy momentum fluxes is important in forcing the oceanic lows in the lower troposphere, in agreement with one’s synoptic intuition. Regarding the NH winter storm-track distribution, results of this study suggest that NH extratropical heating is the most important forcing. Zonal asymmetries in NH extratropical heating act to force the Pacific storm track to shift equatorward and the Atlantic storm track to shift poleward, attain a southwest–northeast tilt, and intensify. It appears to be the main forcing responsible for explaining why the Atlantic storm track is stronger than the Pacific storm track. Tibet and the Rockies are also important, mainly in suppressing the storm tracks over the continents, forcing a clearer separation between the two storm tracks. In contrast, asymmetries in tropical heating appear to play only a minor role in forcing the model storm-track distribution.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Role of Mountains in the Northern Hemisphere Winter Atmospheric Circulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.H. White ◽  
J.M. Wallace ◽  
D.S. Battisti
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Intractable Problem ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe impact of global orography on Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate is revisited using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, WACCM6. A suite of experiments explores the roles of both resolved orography, and the parameterized effects of unresolved orographic drag (hereafter parameterized orography), including gravity waves and boundary layer turbulence. Including orography reduces the extra-tropical tropospheric and stratospheric zonal mean zonal wind, , by up to 80%; this is substantially greater than previous estimates. Ultimately parameterized orography accounts for 60-80% of this reduction; however, away from the surface most of the forcing of by parameterized orography is accomplished by resolved planetary waves. We propose that a catalytic wave-mean-flow positive feedback in the stratosphere makes the stratospheric flow particularly sensitive to parameterized orography. Orography and land-sea contrast contribute approximately equally to the strength of the mid-latitude stationary waves in the free troposphere, although orography is the dominant cause of the strength of the Siberian high and Aleutian low at the surface, and of the position of the Icelandic low. We argue that precisely quantifying the role of orography on the observed stationary waves is an almost intractable problem, and in particular should not be approached with linear stationary wave models in which is prescribed. We show that orography has less impact on stationary waves, and therefore on , on a backwards rotating Earth. Lastly, we show that atmospheric meridional heat transport shows remarkable constancy across our simulations, despite vastly different climates and stationary wave strengths.

scholarly journals Northern Hemisphere Stationary Waves in Future Climate Projections

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (23) ◽  
pp. 6341-6353 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenny Brandefelt ◽  
Heiner Körnich
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Wave Response

Abstract The response of the atmospheric large-scale circulation to an enhanced greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing varies among coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulations. In this study, 16 CGCM simulations of the response of the climate system to a 1% yr−1 increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration to quadrupling are analyzed with focus on Northern Hemisphere winter. A common signal in 14 out of the 16 simulations is an increased or unchanged stationary wave amplitude. A majority of the simulations may be categorized into one of three groups based on the GHG-induced changes in the atmospheric stationary waves. The response of the zonal mean barotropic wind is similar within each group. Fifty percent of the simulations belong to the first group, which is categorized by a stationary wave with five waves encompassing the entire NH and a strengthening of the zonal mean barotropic wind. The second and third groups, respectively consisting of three and two simulations, are characterized by a broadening and a northward shift of the zonal mean barotropic wind, respectively. A linear model of barotropic vorticity is employed to study the importance of these mean flow changes to the stationary wave response. The linear calculations indicate that the GHG-induced mean wind changes explain 50%, 4%, and 37% of the stationary wave changes in each group, respectively. Thus, for the majority of simulations the zonal mean wind changes do significantly explain the stationary wave response.

scholarly journals An Energetics Study of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks under 4 × CO2 Conditions in Two Ocean–Atmosphere Coupled Models

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 819-839 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Laîné ◽  
Masa Kageyama ◽  
David Salas-Mélia ◽  
Gilles Ramstein ◽  
Serge Planton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latent Heat ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere

Abstract Different possible behaviors of winter Northern Hemisphere storm tracks under 4 × CO2 forcing are considered by analyzing the response of two of the ocean–atmosphere coupled models that were run for the fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), namely the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace’s global coupled model (IPSL-CM4) and the Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques’s coupled ocean–atmosphere model (CNRM-CM3). It is interesting to compare these models due to their very different responses, especially concerning the North Atlantic storm track. A local energetics study of the synoptic variability in both models is performed, derived from the eddy energy equations, including diabatic terms. The ability of both models to simulate the present-day eddy energetics is considered, indicating no major discrepancies. Both models indicate that the primary cause for synoptic activity changes at the western end of the storm tracks is related to the baroclinic conversion process, due to mean temperature gradient changes in some localized regions of the western oceanic basins, but also resulting from changes in the eddy efficiency to convert energy from the mean flow. Farther downstream, latent heat release during the developing and mature stages of eddies becomes an important eddy energy source especially in terms of changes between 4 × CO2 and preindustrial conditions. This diabatic process amplifies the upstream synoptic (hence usually baroclinic) changes, with more and/or stronger storms implying more latent heat being released (and the converse being true for weaker synoptic activity). This amplification is asymmetrical for the models considered under the simulated 4 × CO2 conditions, due to a greater amount of water vapor contained in warmer air and hence the potential for more condensation for a given synoptic activity. The magnitude of the reduced latent heating is attenuated, whereas increased latent heating is strengthened. Ageostrophic geopotential fluxes are also important in relocating eddy kinetic energy, especially in the vertical.

scholarly journals Dynamical Processes Related to the Appearance of Quasi-Stationary Waves on the Subtropical Jet in the Midsummer Northern Hemisphere

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1531-1544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naoki Sato ◽  
Masaaki Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
Statistical Features ◽  
Basic Field ◽  
Subtropical Jet ◽  
Anomaly Pattern ◽  
Highly Correlated

Abstract Statistical features of quasi-stationary planetary waves were examined on the subtropical jet in the midsummer Northern Hemisphere by using objectively analyzed data and satellite data. As a result, a quasi-stationary wave train that is highly correlated with the midsummer climate over Japan was identified. A clear phase dependency of the appearance of waves was also confirmed. An analysis of temporal evolution and wave activity flux revealed that the eastward propagation of the wave packet starts in the Middle East, passes over East Asia, and reaches North America. The anomaly pattern is strengthened through kinetic energy conversion near the entrance of the Asian jet over the Middle East. The interaction between the anomaly pattern and the basic field contributes to the appearance of the anomalous wavelike pattern. Although the wave train is correlated with the anomaly of convective activity over the western North Pacific and the Indian Ocean, it is implied that internal dynamics are important in determining the statistical features of the appearance of anomalous quasi-stationary waves on the subtropical jet.

scholarly journals Northern Hemisphere Stationary Waves in a Changing Climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 372-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert C. J. Wills ◽  
Rachel H. White ◽  
Xavier J. Levine
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Longitudinal Variations

Abstract Purpose of Review Stationary waves are planetary-scale longitudinal variations in the time-averaged atmospheric circulation. Here, we consider the projected response of Northern Hemisphere stationary waves to climate change in winter and summer. We discuss how the response varies across different metrics, identify robust responses, and review proposed mechanisms. Recent Findings Climate models project shifts in the prevailing wind patterns, with corresponding impacts on regional precipitation, temperature, and extreme events. Recent work has improved our understanding of the links between stationary waves and regional climate and identified robust stationary wave responses to climate change, which include an increased zonal lengthscale in winter, a poleward shift of the wintertime circulation over the Pacific, a weakening of monsoonal circulations, and an overall weakening of stationary wave circulations, particularly their divergent component and quasi-stationary disturbances. Summary Numerous factors influence Northern Hemisphere stationary waves, and mechanistic theories exist for only a few aspects of the stationary wave response to climate change. Idealized studies have proven useful for understanding the climate responses of particular atmospheric circulation features and should be a continued focus of future research.

scholarly journals Northern hemisphere winter storm tracks of the Eemian interglacial and the last glacial inception

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Kaspar ◽  
T. Spangehl ◽  
U. Cubasch
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Winter Storm ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Eemian Interglacial ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. Climate simulations of the Eemian interglacial and the last glacial inception have been performed by forcing a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model with insolation patterns of these periods. The parameters of the Earth's orbit have been set to conditions of 125 000 and 115 000 years before present (yr BP). Compared to today, these dates represent periods with enhanced and weakened seasonality of insolation in the northern hemisphere. Here we analyse the simulated change in northern hemisphere winter storm tracks. The change in the orbital configuration has a strong impact on the meridional temperature gradients and therefore on strength and location of the storm tracks. The North Atlantic storm track is strengthened, shifted northward and extends further to the east in the simulation for the Eemian at 125 kyr BP. As one consequence, the northern parts of Europe experience an increase in winter precipitation. The frequency of winter storm days increases over large parts of the North Atlantic including the British Isles and the coastal zones of north-western Europe. Opposite but weaker changes in storm track activity are simulated for 115 kyr BP.

scholarly journals Dynamics of Eddy-Driven Low-Frequency Dipole Modes. Part III: Meridional Displacement of Westerly Jet Anomalies during Two Phases of NAO

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (9) ◽  
pp. 3232-3248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Tingting Gong ◽  
Yina Diao
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Negative Phase ◽  
Stationary Waves ◽  
The North ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
Two Phases ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract In this paper, the north–south variability of westerly jet anomalies during the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is examined in a theoretical model. It is found that the north–south variability of the zonal mean westerly anomaly results from the interaction between the eddy-driven anomalous stationary waves with a dipole meridional structure (NAO anomalies) and topographically induced climatological stationary waves with a monopole structure, which is dependent upon the phase of the NAO. The westerly jet anomaly tends to shift northward during the positive NAO phase but southward during the negative phase. Synoptic-scale eddies tend to maintain westerly jet anomalies through the excitation of NAO anomalies, but the climatological stationary wave and its position relative to the eddy-driven anomalous stationary wave appear to dominate the north–south shift of westerly jet anomalies. On the other hand, it is shown that when the climatological stationary wave ridge is located downstream of the eddy-driven anomalous stationary wave, the storm track modulated by the NAO pattern splits into two branches for the negative phase, in which the northern branch is generally stronger than the southern one. However, the southern one can be dominant as the relative position between anomalous and climatological stationary waves is within a moderate range. The storm track for the positive phase tends to drift northeastward when there is a phase difference between the NAO anomaly and climatological stationary wave ridge downstream. Thus, it appears that the relationship between the NAO jets and storm tracks can be clearly seen from the present theoretical model.

scholarly journals Interdecadal Variability of the Warm Arctic and Cold Eurasia Pattern and Its North Atlantic Origin

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (15) ◽  
pp. 5793-5810 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mi-Kyung Sung ◽  
Seon-Hwa Kim ◽  
Baek-Min Kim ◽  
Yong-Sang Choi
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Interdecadal Variability ◽  
Temperature Perturbation ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

This study investigates the origin of the interdecadal variability in the warm Arctic and cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern, which is defined as the second empirical orthogonal function of surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the Eurasian continent in Northern Hemisphere winter, by analyzing the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. While previous studies highlight recent enhancement of the WACE pattern, ascribing it to anthropogenic warming, the authors found that the WACE pattern has experienced a seemingly periodic interdecadal variation over the twentieth century. This long-term variation in the Eurasian SAT is attributable to the altered coupling between the Siberian high (SH) and intraseasonal Rossby wave emanating from the North Atlantic, as the local wave branch interacts with the SH and consequentially enhances the continental temperature perturbation. It is further identified that these atmospheric circulation changes in Eurasia are largely controlled by the decadal amplitude modulation of the climatological stationary waves over the North Atlantic region. The altered decadal mean condition of stationary wave components brings changes in local baroclinicity and storm track activity over the North Atlantic, which jointly change the intraseasonal Rossby wave generation and propagation characteristics as well. With simple stationary wave model experiments, the authors confirm how the altered mean flow condition in the North Atlantic acts as a source for the growth of the Rossby wave that leads to the change in the downstream WACE pattern.

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