scholarly journals Historical Droughts in Central Mexico and Their Relation with El Niño

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 709-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanca Mendoza ◽  
Ernesto Jáuregui ◽  
Rosa Diaz-Sandoval ◽  
Virginia García-Acosta ◽  
Victor Velasco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Central Mexico ◽  
Northwest Mexico ◽  
Historical Series

Abstract A catalog containing an unprecedented amount of historical data in central Mexico, covering almost six centuries (1450–1900), is used. This is a catalog of agricultural disasters that includes events associated with hydrometeorological phenomena, or hazards, whose effects were mainly felt in the agricultural sector, such as droughts. An analysis of the historical series of droughts in central Mexico for the period of 1450–1900 is performed. Periods of frequent drought centered at the years 1483, 1533, 1571, 1601, 1650, 1691, 1730, 1783, 1818, and 1860 have been identified. In particular, droughts in Mexico City and northwest Mexico that were identified through poor tree-ring growth are included in the frequent drought periods obtained in this work. Moreover, it was found that droughts occurred in El Niño years mainly for events of very strong and strong strengths, at a significant level. Also, most droughts lasted for 1 or 2 yr. Last, by analyzing the periodicities of the drought time series it was found that those that are the most conspicuous are the quasi-bidecadal frequencies of 18.9 and 21 yr.

scholarly journals A Study of Historical Droughts in Southeastern Mexico

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2916-2934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanca Mendoza ◽  
Victor Velasco ◽  
Ernesto Jáuregui
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Time Lapse ◽  
Southeastern Part ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Historical Series

Abstract A catalog containing an unprecedented amount of historical data in the southeastern part of Mexico covering almost four centuries (1502–1899) is used to construct a drought time series. The catalog records information of agricultural disasters and includes events associated with hydrometeorological phenomena or hazards whose effects were mainly felt in the agricultural sector, such as droughts. An analysis of the historical series of droughts in southeastern Mexico for the period 1502–1899 is performed. The highest drought frequency occurred around the years 1650, 1782, and 1884; no droughts were reported around 1540, between 1630 and 1640, along the largest time lapse of 1672–1714, and between 1740 and 1760. From 1760 until the end of the period of study droughts definitively occur more often than they did from ∼1550 to 1760. In addition, most droughts lasted for 1–2 yr. Analyzing the frequencies of the drought time series it is found that the most conspicuous cycles are ∼3–4 and 7 yr, although cycles of ∼12, 20, 43, and 70 yr are also evident. The relation between droughts and El Niño events indicates that 38% of droughts are associated with El Niño. Sea surface temperature changes, the Southern Oscillation index, and solar activity leave their signals in the southeastern part of Mexico, with the signs in Oaxaca clearer than in the Yucatan Peninsula. However, the dominance of some phenomena over others depends on the time scales considered.

scholarly journals Análise de Componente do Regime Hidrológico da Bacia do Rio Amazonas em Anos de Eventos Climáticos

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 988
Author(s):  
Rogério Souza Aguiar ◽  
Edson José Paulino da Rocha ◽  
José Augusto de Souza Junior ◽  
Joyse Tatiane Souza dos Santos ◽  
Josiane Sarmento Dos Santos
Keyword(s):  
Flow Rate ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Amazon River ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Historical Series

As cheias e vazantes do rio Amazonas passaram a ser mais persistentes ao longo dos anos. Este estudo busca analisara influência da variabilidade temporal em escala de bacia hidrográfica sobre o regime do rio Amazonas, a partir das vazões da estação hidrológica da Agência Nacional de Águas – ANA, localizada em Óbidos, no Estado do Pará em uma série histórica de janeiro/1970 a dezembro/2013. Além do tempo, o estudo analisou a intensidade do El Niño e La Niña. Como esperado, o tempo influenciou na vazão média interanual encontrada de 98.723 m3/s para os 44 anos da série analisada. Porém com variabilidade anual do regime do rio Amazonas de intensas proporções temporais, com a vazão variando de ordem de 72.380 m3/s (como em 1997) no regime de vazante até uma ordem de 131.620 m3/s (como em 1974) no regime de cheia. Também foi identificado que fenômenos de El Niño e La Niña modularam eventos climáticos extremos sobre as vazões da Bacia Amazônica em cada ano. A análise interanual mostrou que os anos de baixas vazões, possuíam a característica de persistência de ocorrência em relação às altas vazões. A partir de 1989, houve um aumento em relação à amplitude média da vazão de 87.727 m3/s devido a fortes níveis mínimos registrados. Ao analisar a vazão normalizada percebeu-se que na maioria dos anos de baixa vazão foram também anos do fenômeno El Niño. Constatado esta persistência de baixas vazões, investigaram-se os fatores de armazenamento e disponibilidade do rio Amazonas.   Analysis of Hydrological Regime Componentof the Amazonas River Basin in Years of Climate Events. ABSTRACTThe floods and drains of the Amazon River have become more persistent over the years. This study seeks to analyze the influence of the temporal variability in the basin scale on the Amazon river regime, from the flows of the hydrological station of the National Water Agency - ANA, located in Óbidos, State of Pará, in a historical series from January/1970 to December /2013. Besides time, the study analyzed the intensity of El Niño and La Niña. As expected, time influenced the annual interannual flow rate of 98,723 m3/s for the 44 years of the analyzed series. However, with an annual variability of the Amazon river regime of intense flows, with an increase of 72,380 m3/s (as in 1997) in the effluent regime up to an order of 131,620 m3/s (as in 1974) in the flood regime. It was also identified that El Niño and La Niña phenomena modulated extreme climatic events on the Amazon Basin flows each year. The year-on-year analysis showed that the years of low flows had a persistence of occurrence in relation to high flows. As of 1989, there was an increase in relation to the average flow amplitude of 87,727 m3/s due to the strong minimum levels recorded. Analyzing the normalized flow rate, it was observed that in most of the years of low flow there were also years of the El Niño phenomenon. Considering this persistence of low flows, we investigated the storage and availability factors of the Amazon River.Keywords: Time flows. Ecological Maintenance.Amazonriver. 

scholarly journals Application of Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction to Support Agricultural Sector in South Sulawesi Rice Production Centers

2021 ◽  
Vol 893 (1) ◽  
pp. 012081
Author(s):  
A M Setiawan ◽  
Y Koesmaryono ◽  
A Faqih ◽  
D Gunawan
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Consecutive Dry Days

Abstract Sufficient water availability during the vegetative, reproductive, and early ripening phases of the rice plants is essential. Information on drought, such as Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) predictions in this period, became very crucial and had an important role in maintaining rice production stability. The aim of this study is to investigate the performance of CDD Multi-Model Ensemble prediction, which is applied to South Sulawesi rice production centers. CDD observation was calculated using high resolution gridded precipitation blending data, obtained from BMKG precipitation network stations and the daily-improved Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) version 2.0. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) monthly precipitation hindcast data during 1982 – 2010 periods from each nine individual global climate models were used to develop seasonal CDD predictions. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Standard Verification for Long Range Forecast (SVS-LRF) method applied to describe this CDD prediction performance on four different seasons. Investigation of model performance during strong El Niño event in 1997 also conducted in order to get general skill overview regarding extreme climate event. Best performance of CDD prediction generally occurred during JJA and DJF period. MME CDD prediction shows better performance compared to individual model performance for almost all season. Spatial coherence between prediction and observation over rice production centers during 1997 El Niño confirms the skill of CDD predictions. The application of this prediction on agricultural sector will be very useful in order to support rice production sustainability and food security. Further analysis result can be found on full paper.

scholarly journals Detection of Mesoscale Seasonal and Interannual Variation in the Vegetation of the Amazon Basin

2005 ◽  
Vol 9 (25) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Miles G. Logsdon ◽  
Robin Weeks ◽  
Milton Smith ◽  
Jeffery E. Richey ◽  
Victoria Ballester ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Spectral Change ◽  
Range Analysis ◽  
Local Variance ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract In the Amazon basin, seasonal and interannual spectral changes measured by satellites result from anthropogenic disturbance and from the interaction between climate variation and the surface cover. Measurements of spectral change, and the characterization of that change, provide information concerning the physical processes evident at this mesoscale. A 17-yr sequence of daily Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) global area coverage (GAC) images were analyzed to produce a monthly record of surface spectral change encompassing El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles. Monthly cloud-free composite images from daily AVHRR data were produced by linear filters that minimized the finescale spatial variance and allowed for a wide range analysis within a consistent mathematical framework. Here the use of a minimized local variance (MLV) filter that produced spatially smooth images in which major land-cover boundaries and spatial gradients are clearly represented is discussed. Changes in the configuration of these boundaries and the composition of the landscape elements they defined are described in terms of quantitative changes in landscape pattern. The time series produced with the MLV filter revealed a marked seasonal difference in the pattern of the landscape and structural differences over the length of the time series. Strikingly, the response of the region to drier El Niño years appears to be delayed in the MLV series, the maximum response being in the year following El Niño with little or no change seen during El Niño.

scholarly journals ENSO flavors in a tree-ring δ<sup>18</sup>O record of <i>Tectona grandis</i> from Indonesia

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1325-1333 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Schollaen ◽  
C. Karamperidou ◽  
P. Krusic ◽  
E. Cook ◽  
G. Helle
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific El Niño ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract. Indonesia's climate is dominated by the equatorial monsoon system, and has been linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events that often result in extensive droughts and floods over the Indonesian archipelago. In this study we investigate ENSO-related signals in a tree-ring δ18O record (1900–2007) of Javanese teak. Our results reveal a clear influence of Warm Pool (central Pacific) El Niño events on Javanese tree-ring δ18O, and no clear signal of Cold Tongue (eastern Pacific) El Niño events. These results are consistent with the distinct impacts of the two ENSO flavors on Javanese precipitation, and illustrate the importance of considering ENSO flavors when interpreting palaeoclimate proxy records in the tropics, as well as the potential of palaeoclimate proxy records from appropriately selected tropical regions for reconstructing past variability of. ENSO flavors.

scholarly journals Analysis and quantification of ENSO-linked changes in the tropical Atlantic cloud vertical distribution using 14 years of MODIS observations

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (21) ◽  
pp. 13535-13546
Author(s):  
Nils Madenach ◽  
Cintia Carbajal Henken ◽  
René Preusker ◽  
Odran Sourdeval ◽  
Jürgen Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
High Cloud

Abstract. A total of 14 years (September 2002 to September 2016) of Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) monthly mean cloud data are used to quantify possible changes in the cloud vertical distribution over the tropical Atlantic. For the analysis multiple linear regression techniques are used. For the investigated time period significant linear changes were found in the domain-averaged cloud-top height (CTH) (−178 m per decade), the high-cloud fraction (HCF) (−0.0006 per decade), and the low-cloud amount (0.001 per decade). The interannual variability of the time series (especially CTH and HCF) is highly influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Separating the time series into two phases, we quantified the linear change associated with the transition from more La Niña-like conditions to a phase with El Niño conditions (Phase 2) and vice versa (Phase 1). The transition from negative to positive ENSO conditions was related to a decrease in total cloud fraction (TCF) (−0.018 per decade; not significant) due to a reduction in the high-cloud amount (−0.024 per decade; significant). Observed anomalies in the mean CTH were found to be mainly caused by changes in HCF rather than by anomalies in the height of cloud tops themselves. Using the large-scale vertical motion ω at 500 hPa (from ERA-Interim ECMWF reanalysis data), the observed anomalies were linked to ENSO-induced changes in the atmospheric large-scale dynamics. The most significant and largest changes were found in regions with strong large-scale upward movements near the Equator. Despite the fact that with passive imagers such as MODIS it is not possible to vertically resolve clouds, this study shows the great potential for large-scale analysis of possible changes in the cloud vertical distribution due to the changing climate by using vertically resolved cloud cover and linking those changes to large-scale dynamics using other observations or model data.

Prospects for agriculture in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Food Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weather Events

Subject Prospects for agriculture in 2016. Significance The agricultural sector in 2016 will be influenced by extreme weather events, especially El Nino, as well as by domestic responses to geopolitical developments, especially in Russia, and rising food demand in major emerging economies such as China.

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