On the Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks over the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue

2003 ◽  
Vol 16 (14) ◽  
pp. 2425-2432 ◽  
Author(s):  
De-Zheng Sun ◽  
John Fasullo ◽  
Tao Zhang ◽  
Andres Roubicek
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Linear Feedback ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Cold Tongue ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Atmospheric Feedback

Abstract An analysis of the climatic feedbacks in the NCAR Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3) over the equatorial Pacific cold tongue is presented. Using interannual signals in the underlying SST, the radiative and dynamical feedbacks have been calculated using both observations and outputs from the NCAR CCM3. The results show that the positive feedback from the greenhouse effect of water vapor in the model largely agrees with that from observations. The dynamical feedback from the atmospheric transport in the model is also comparable to that from observations. However, the negative feedback from the solar forcing of clouds in the model is significantly weaker than the observed, while the positive feedback from the greenhouse effect of clouds is significantly larger. Consequently, the net atmospheric feedback in the CCM3 over the equatorial cold tongue region is strongly positive (5.1 W m−2 K−1), while the net atmospheric feedback in the real atmosphere is strongly negative (−6.4 W m−2 K−1). A further analysis with the aid of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data suggests that cloud cover response to changes in the SST may be a significant error source for the cloud feedbacks. It is also noted that the surface heating over the cold tongue in CCM3 is considerably weaker than in observations. In light of results from a linear feedback system, as well as those from a more sophisticated coupled model, it is suggested that the discrepancy in the net atmospheric feedback may have contributed significantly to the cold bias in the equatorial Pacific in the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM).

scholarly journals Pan-spectral observing system simulation experiments of shortwave reflectance and long-wave radiance for climate model evaluation

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 1943-1954 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. R. Feldman ◽  
W. D. Collins ◽  
J. L. Paige
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Spectral Measurements ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
Hadley Centre

Abstract. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectrally resolved shortwave reflectances and long-wave radiances describe the response of the Earth's surface and atmosphere to feedback processes and human-induced forcings. In order to evaluate proposed long-duration spectral measurements, we have projected 21st Century changes from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 Emissions Scenario onto shortwave reflectance spectra from 300 to 2500 nm and long-wave radiance spectra from 2000 to 200 cm−1 at 8 nm and 1 cm−1 resolution, respectively. The radiative transfer calculations have been rigorously validated against published standards and produce complementary signals describing the climate system forcings and feedbacks. Additional demonstration experiments were performed with the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC5) and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) models for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The calculations contain readily distinguishable signatures of low clouds, snow/ice, aerosols, temperature gradients, and water vapour distributions. The goal of this effort is to understand both how climate change alters reflected solar and emitted infrared spectra of the Earth and determine whether spectral measurements enhance our detection and attribution of climate change. This effort also presents a path forward to understand the characteristics of hyperspectral observational records needed to confront models and inline instrument simulation. Such simulation will enable a diverse set of comparisons between model results from coupled model intercomparisons and existing and proposed satellite instrument measurement systems.

Local and remote causes of the equatorial Pacific cold sea surface temperature bias in the Kiel Climate Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuming Zhang ◽  
Tobias Bayr ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Zhaoyang Song ◽  
Wonsun Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sst Bias ◽  
Atmosphere Model

<p>We investigate the origin of the equatorial Pacific cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias and its link to wind biases, local and remote, in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) with dedicated coupled and stand-alone atmosphere model experiments. In the coupled experiments, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP/CFSR) wind stress is prescribed over four different spatial domains: globally, over the equatorial Pacific (EP), the northern Pacific (NP) and southern Pacific (SP). The corresponding cold SST bias over the equatorial Pacific is reduced by 94%, 48%, 11% and 22%, respectively. Thus, the equatorial Pacific SST bias is mainly attributed to the wind bias over the EP region, with small but not negligible contributions from the SP and NP regions. Biases in the ocean dynamics cause the EP SST bias, while the atmospheric thermodynamics counteract it.</p><p>To examine the origin of wind biases, we force the atmospheric component of the KCM in stand-alone mode by observed SSTs and simulated SSTs from the coupled experiments with the KCM. The results show that wind biases over the EP, NP and SP regions are initially generated in the atmosphere model and further enhanced by the biased SST in the coupled model.</p><p>We conclude that the cold SST bias over the equatorial Pacific originates from biases in the ocean circulation that are forced by the biased surface winds over the EP, NP and SP regions. On the other hand, the cold equatorial Pacific SST bias amplifies the wind biases over the EP, NP and SP regions, which in turn enhances the cold SST bias by ocean-atmosphere coupling.</p>

scholarly journals Decadal Prediction of the Sahelian Precipitation in CMIP5 Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 7708-7719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Gaetani ◽  
Elsa Mohino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Coupled Global Climate Model

Abstract In this study the capability of eight state-of-the-art ocean–atmosphere coupled models in predicting the monsoonal precipitation in the Sahel on a decadal time scale is assessed. To estimate the importance of the initialization, the predictive skills of two different CMIP5 experiments are compared, a set of 10 decadal hindcasts initialized every 5 years in the period 1961–2009 and the historical simulations in the period 1961–2005. Results indicate that predictive skills are highly model dependent: the Fourth Generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CanCM4), Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model, version 5 (CNRM-CM5), and Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) models show improved skill in the decadal hindcasts, while the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5 (MIROC5) is skillful in both the decadal and historical experiments. The Beijing Climate Center, Climate System Model, version 1.1 (BCC-CSM1.1), Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3), L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5, coupled with NEMO, low resolution (IPSL-CM5A-LR), and Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model, version 3 (MRI-CGCM3) models show insignificant or no skill in predicting the Sahelian precipitation. Skillful predictions are produced by models properly describing the SST multidecadal variability and the initialization appears to play an important role in this respect.

scholarly journals The New GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM2–LM2: Evaluation with Prescribed SST Simulations

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 4641-4673 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Stomatal Resistance ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Latent Heat Storage ◽  
Reliable Assessment ◽  
And Performance

Abstract The configuration and performance of a new global atmosphere and land model for climate research developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are presented. The atmosphere model, known as AM2, includes a new gridpoint dynamical core, a prognostic cloud scheme, and a multispecies aerosol climatology, as well as components from previous models used at GFDL. The land model, known as LM2, includes soil sensible and latent heat storage, groundwater storage, and stomatal resistance. The performance of the coupled model AM2–LM2 is evaluated with a series of prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) simulations. Particular focus is given to the model's climatology and the characteristics of interannual variability related to E1 Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO). One AM2–LM2 integration was performed according to the prescriptions of the second Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP II) and data were submitted to the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). Particular strengths of AM2–LM2, as judged by comparison to other models participating in AMIP II, include its circulation and distributions of precipitation. Prominent problems of AM2– LM2 include a cold bias to surface and tropospheric temperatures, weak tropical cyclone activity, and weak tropical intraseasonal activity associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation. An ensemble of 10 AM2–LM2 integrations with observed SSTs for the second half of the twentieth century permits a statistically reliable assessment of the model's response to ENSO. In general, AM2–LM2 produces a realistic simulation of the anomalies in tropical precipitation and extratropical circulation that are associated with ENSO.

scholarly journals Will a Warmer World Mean a Wetter or Drier Australian Monsoon?

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (12) ◽  
pp. 4577-4596 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josephine R. Brown ◽  
Aurel F. Moise ◽  
Robert Colman ◽  
Huqiang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Australian Monsoon ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Sst Warming ◽  
The Difference

Abstract Multimodel mean projections of the Australian summer monsoon show little change in precipitation in a future warmer climate, even under the highest emission scenario. However, there is large uncertainty in this projection, with model projections ranging from around a 40% increase to a 40% decrease in summer monsoon precipitation. To understand the source of this model uncertainty, a set of 33 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) is divided into groups based on their future precipitation projections (DRY, MID, and WET terciles). The DRY model mean has enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) warming across the equatorial Pacific, with maximum increases in precipitation in the western equatorial Pacific. The DRY model mean also has a large cold bias in present day SSTs in this region. The WET model mean has the largest warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with precipitation increases over much of Australia. These results suggest lower confidence for projections of reduced monsoon precipitation because of the influence of model SST biases on the SST warming pattern and precipitation response. The precipitation changes for the DRY and WET models are also decomposed into dynamic and thermodynamic components. The component due to spatial shifts in the location of convergence and precipitation is responsible for most of the difference between DRY and WET models. As spatial shifts in precipitation are closely associated with patterns of SST change, reducing uncertainty in model SST warming patterns will be crucial to improved projections of Australian monsoon precipitation.

The Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue Bias in a Coupled Climate Model

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 5852-5869 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasubandhu Misra ◽  
L. Marx ◽  
M. Brunke ◽  
X. Zeng
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Cold Tongue ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Coupling Interval ◽  
The Mean

Abstract A set of multidecadal coupled ocean–atmosphere model integrations are conducted with different time steps for coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. It is shown that the mean state of the equatorial Pacific does not change in a statistically significant manner when the coupling interval between the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is changed from 1 day to 2 or even 3 days. It is argued that because the coarse resolution of the AGCM precludes resolving realistic “weather” events, changing the coupling interval from 1 day to 2 or 3 days has very little impact on the mean coupled climate. On the other hand, reducing the coupling interval to 3 h had a much stronger impact on the mean state of the equatorial Pacific and the concomitant general circulation. A novel experiment that incorporates a (pseudo) interaction of the atmosphere with SST at every time step of the AGCM was also conducted. In this unique coupled model experiment, the AGCM at every time step mutually interacts with the skin SST. This skin SST is anchored to the bulk SST, which is updated from the OGCM once a day. Both of these experiments reduced the cold tongue bias moderately over the equatorial Pacific Ocean with a corresponding reduction in the easterly wind stress bias relative to the control integration. It is stressed from the results of these model experiments that the impact of high-frequency air–sea coupling is significant on the cold tongue bias. The interannual variation of the equatorial Pacific was less sensitive to the coupling time step between the AGCM and the OGCM. Increasing (reducing) the coupling interval of the air–sea interaction had the effect of weakening (marginally strengthening) the interannual variations of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is argued that the low-frequency response of the upper ocean, including the cold tongue bias, is modulated by the atmospheric stochastic forcing on the coupled ocean–atmosphere system. This effect of the atmospheric stochastic forcing is affected by the frequency of the air–sea coupling and is found to be stronger than the rectification effect of the diurnal variations of the air–sea interaction on the low frequency. This may be a result of a limitation in the coupled model used in this study in which the OGCM has an inadequate vertical resolution in the mixed layer to sustain diurnal variations in the upper ocean.

scholarly journals Tropical Pacific Climate and Its Response to Global Warming in the Kiel Climate Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Park ◽  
N. Keenlyside ◽  
M. Latif ◽  
A. Ströh ◽  
R. Redler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract A new, non-flux-corrected, global climate model is introduced, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), which will be used to study internal climate variability from interannual to millennial time scales and climate predictability of the first and second kind. The version described here is a coarse-resolution version that will be employed in extended-range integrations of several millennia. KCM’s performance in the tropical Pacific with respect to mean state, annual cycle, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is described. Additionally, the tropical Pacific response to global warming is studied. Overall, climate drift in a multicentury control integration is small. However, KCM exhibits an equatorial cold bias at the surface of the order 1°C, while strong warm biases of several degrees are simulated in the eastern tropical Pacific on both sides off the equator, with maxima near the coasts. The annual and semiannual cycles are realistically simulated in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific, respectively. ENSO performance compares favorably to observations with respect to both amplitude and period. An ensemble of eight greenhouse warming simulations was performed, in which the CO2 concentration was increased by 1% yr−1 until doubling was reached, and stabilized thereafter. Warming of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) is, to first order, zonally symmetric and leads to a sharpening of the thermocline. ENSO variability increases because of global warming: during the 30-yr period after CO2 doubling, the ensemble mean standard deviation of Niño-3 SST anomalies is increased by 26% relative to the control, and power in the ENSO band is almost doubled. The increased variability is due to both a strengthened (22%) thermocline feedback and an enhanced (52%) atmospheric sensitivity to SST; both are associated with changes in the basic state. Although variability increases in the mean, there is a large spread among ensemble members and hence a finite probability that in the “model world” no change in ENSO would be observed.

scholarly journals The Super Greenhouse Effect in a Changing Climate

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (15) ◽  
pp. 5469-5482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme L. Stephens ◽  
Brian H. Kahn ◽  
Mark Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Meridional Heat Transport ◽  
Feedback Analysis ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Ir Emission

Abstract In all outputs of the 1% yr−1 increase in CO2 climate model experiments archived under the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP) phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), regions exist in the low latitudes where both the clear-sky and all-sky OLR decrease with surface warming. These are identified as regions of positive longwave feedback and are regions of a super greenhouse effect (SGE). These SGE regions are identified from feedback analysis of the 4 × CO2 abrupt experiments of CMIP5, and despite their existence, there is little agreement across models as to the magnitude of the effect. The general effects of clouds on the SGE are to amplify the clear-sky SGE, but there is also poor agreement on the magnitude of the amplification that varies by an order of magnitude across models. Sensitivity analyses indicate that localized SGE regions are spatially aligned with a large moistening of the upper troposphere. The reduction in clear-sky OLR arises from a reduction in emission in the far IR with nonnegligible contributions from mid-IR emission from the midtroposphere. When viewed in the broader context of meridional heat transport, it is found that of the 1.03-PW rate of heat gained globally, 0.8 PW is absorbed in the tropics and is contributed almost equally by reductions in clear-sky longwave emission (i.e., the clear-sky SGE) and increased absorbed clear-sky solar radiation associated with increased water vapor. The processes that define the clear-sky SGE are shown to be fundamental to the way models accumulate heat and then transport it poleward.

scholarly journals Climate model configurations of the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF-IFS cycle 43r1) for HighResMIP

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher D. Roberts ◽  
Retish Senan ◽  
Franco Molteni ◽  
Souhail Boussetta ◽  
Michael Mayer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. This paper presents atmosphere-only and coupled climate model configurations of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF-IFS) for different combinations of ocean and atmosphere resolution. These configurations are used to perform multi-decadal ensemble experiments following the protocols of the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMip) and phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are used to evaluate the sensitivity of major biases in the atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere to changes in atmosphere and ocean resolution. Climatological surface biases in ECMWF-IFS are relatively insensitive to an increase in atmospheric resolution from ~50 km to ~25 km. However, increasing the horizontal resolution of the atmosphere while maintaining the same vertical resolution enhances the magnitude of a cold bias in the lower stratosphere. In coupled configurations, there is a strong sensitivity to an increase in ocean model resolution from 1° to 0.25°. However, this sensitivity to ocean resolution takes many years to fully manifest and is not apparent in the first year of integration. This result has implications for the ECMWF coupled model development strategy that typically relies on the analysis of biases in short (

scholarly journals Pan-spectral observing system simulation experiments of shortwave reflectance and longwave radiance for climate model evaluation

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 3647-3670
Author(s):  
D. R. Feldman ◽  
W. D. Collins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Measurement Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Spectral Measurements ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Spectrally Resolved

Abstract. Top-of-atmosphere spectrally-resolved shortwave reflectances and longwave radiances describe the evolution of the Earth's surface and atmosphere response to feedbacks in and human-induced forcings on the climate system. In order to evaluate proposed long-duration spectral measurements, we have projected 21st century changes described by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 Emissions Scenario onto shortwave reflectance spectra from 0.3 to 2.5 μm and longwave radiance spectra from 5 to 50 μm at 8 nm and 1 cm−1 resolution, respectively. The radiative transfer calculations have been rigorously validated against published standards and produce complementary signals describing the climate system forcings and feedbacks. Additional demonstration experiments were performed with the MIROC5 and HadGEM2-ES models for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The calculations contain readily distinguishable signatures of low clouds, snow/ice, aerosols, temperature gradients, and water vapour distributions. The goal of this effort is to understand both how climate change alters the spectrum of the Earth and determine whether spectral measurements enhance our detection and attribution of climate change. This effort also presents a path forward for hyperspectral measurement-model intercomparison by enabling a diverse set of comparisons between model results from coupled model intercomparisons and existing and proposed satellite instrument measurement systems.

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