scholarly journals Validation of River Flows in HadGEM1 and HadCM3 with the TRIP River Flow Model

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1157-1180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pete Falloon ◽  
Richard Betts ◽  
Andrew Wiltshire ◽  
Rutger Dankers ◽  
Camilla Mathison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Annual Cycle ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
River Flow ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
River Basins ◽  
River Flows ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Basin Scale

Abstract The Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) global river-routing scheme in the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3) and the newer Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 1 (HadGEM1) general circulation models (GCMs) have been validated against long-term average measured river discharge data from 40 stations on 24 major river basins from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). TRIP was driven by runoff produced directly by the two GCMs in order to assess both the skill of river flows produced within GCMs in general and to test this as a method for validating large-scale hydrology in GCMs. TRIP predictions of long-term-averaged annual discharge were improved at 28 out of 40 gauging stations on 24 of the world’s major rivers in HadGEM1 compared to HadCM3, particularly for low- and high-latitude basins, with predictions ranging from “good” (within 20% of observed values) to “poor” (biases exceeding 50%). For most regions, the modeled annual average river flows tended to be exaggerated in both models, largely reflecting inflated estimates of precipitation, although lack of human interventions in this modeling setup may have been an additional source of error. Within individual river basins, there were no clear trends in the accuracy of HadGEM1 versus HadCM3 predictions at up- or downstream gauging stations. Relative root-mean-square error (RRMSE) scores for the annual cycle of river flow ranged from poor (>50%) to “fair” (20%–50%) with an overall range of 20.7%–1023.5%, comparable to that found in similar global-scale studies. In both models, simulations of the annual cycle of river flow were generally better for high-latitude basins than in low or midlatitudes. There was a relatively small improvement in the annual cycle of river flow in HadGEM1 compared to HadCM3, mostly in the low-latitude rivers. The findings suggest that there is still substantial work to be done to enable GCMs to simulate monthly discharge consistently well over the majority of basins, including improvements to both (i) GCM simulation of basin-scale precipitation and evaporation and (ii) hydrological processes (e.g., representation of dry land hydrology, floodplain inundation, lakes, snowmelt, and human intervention).

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Snow Distribution and River Flows in a Snow-Dominated Mountainous Watershed in the Western Hindukush–Himalaya, Afghanistan

Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 74
Author(s):  
Abdul Haseeb Azizi ◽  
Yoshihiro Asaoka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
21St Century ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
River Flow ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Snow Cover Area ◽  
River Flows ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
The Impact

Projected snow cover and river flows are important for planning and managing water resources in snow-dominated basins of the Himalayas. To quantify the impacts of climate change in the data scarce Panjshir River basin of Afghanistan, this study simulated present and future snow cover area (SCA) distributions with the snow model (SM), and river flows with the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). The SRM used the degree-day factor and precipitation gradient optimized by the SM to simulate river flows. Temperature and precipitation data from eight kinds of general circulation models (GCMs) were used for bias correction. The SM and SRM were first calibrated and validated using 2009–2015 data, and then bias-corrected future climate data were input to the models to simulate future SCA and river flows. Under both the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, the annual average SCA and river flow were projected to decrease in the mid and late 21st century, although seasonal increases were simulated in some instances. Uncertainty ranges in projected SCA and river flow under RCP 8.5 were small in the mid 21st century and large in the late 21st century. Therefore, climate change is projected to alter high-altitude stream sources in the Hindukush mountains and reduce the amount of water reaching downstream areas.

scholarly journals Interhemispheric differences of mesosphere/lower thermosphere winds and tides investigated from three whole atmosphere models and meteor radar observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunter Stober ◽  
Ales Kuchar ◽  
Dimitry Pokhotelov ◽  
Huixin Liu ◽  
Han-Li Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Meteor Radar ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Seasonal Characteristics

Abstract. Long-term and continuous observations of mesospheric/lower thermospheric winds are rare, but they are important to investigate climatological changes at these altitudes on time scales of several years, covering a solar cycle and longer. Such long time series are a natural heritage of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere climate, and they are valuable to compare climate models or long term runs of general circulation models (GCMs). Here we present a climatological comparison of wind observations from six meteor radars at two conjugate latitudes to validate the corresponding mean winds and atmospheric diurnal and semidiurnal tides from three GCMs, namely Ground-to-Topside Model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA), Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extension (Specified Dynamics) (WACCM-X(SD)) and Upper Atmosphere ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (UA-ICON) model. Our results indicate that there are interhemispheric differences in the seasonal characteristics of the diurnal and semidiurnal tide. There also are some differences in the mean wind climatologies of the models and the observations. Our results indicate that GAIA shows a reasonable agreement with the meteor radar observations during the winter season, whereas WACCM-X(SD) shows a better agreement with the radars for the hemispheric zonal summer wind reversal, which is more consistent with the meteor radar observations. The free running UA-ICON tends to show similar winds and tides compared to WACCM-X(SD).

scholarly journals Bias-corrected climate projections for South Asia from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vimal Mishra ◽  
Udit Bhatia ◽  
Amar Deep Tiwari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
South Asia ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Climate change is likely to pose enormous challenges for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and livelihood of millions of people living in South Asia. Here, we develop daily bias-corrected data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures at 0.25° spatial resolution for South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka) and 18 river basins located in the Indian sub-continent. The bias-corrected dataset is developed using Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) for the historic (1951–2014) and projected (2015–2100) climate for the four scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) using output from 13 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6). The bias-corrected dataset was evaluated against the observations for both mean and extremes of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures. Bias corrected projections from 13 CMIP6-GCMs project a warmer (3–5°C) and wetter (13–30%) climate in South Asia in the 21st century. The bias-corrected projections from CMIP6-GCMs can be used for climate change impact assessment in South Asia and hydrologic impact assessment in the sub-continental river basins.

scholarly journals ENSO Seasonal Synchronization Theory

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (14) ◽  
pp. 5285-5310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl Stein ◽  
Axel Timmermann ◽  
Niklas Schneider ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin ◽  
Malte F. Stuecker
Keyword(s):  
Annual Cycle ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Phase Synchronization ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Nonlinear Frequency ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Frequency Locking ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract One of the key characteristics of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is its synchronization to the annual cycle, which manifests in the tendency of ENSO events to peak during boreal winter. Current theory offers two possible mechanisms to account the for ENSO synchronization: frequency locking of ENSO to periodic forcing by the annual cycle, or the effect of the seasonally varying background state of the equatorial Pacific on ENSO’s coupled stability. Using a parametric recharge oscillator (PRO) model of ENSO, the authors test which of these scenarios provides a better explanation of the observed ENSO synchronization. Analytical solutions of the PRO model show that the annual modulation of the growth rate parameter results directly in ENSO’s seasonal variance, amplitude modulation, and 2:1 phase synchronization to the annual cycle. The solutions are shown to be applicable to the long-term behavior of the damped model excited by stochastic noise, which produces synchronization characteristics that agree with the observations and can account for the variety of ENSO synchronization behavior in state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models. The model also predicts spectral peaks at “combination tones” between ENSO and the annual cycle that exist in the observations and many coupled models. In contrast, the nonlinear frequency entrainment scenario predicts the existence of a spectral peak at the biennial frequency corresponding to the observed 2:1 phase synchronization. Such a peak does not exist in the observed ENSO spectrum. Hence, it can be concluded that the seasonal modulation of the coupled stability is responsible for the synchronization of ENSO events to the annual cycle.

scholarly journals LARGE AND SMALL RESERVOIRS OF UKRAINE: REGIONAL AND BASIN DISTRIBUTION FEATURES

2021 ◽  
pp. 6-17
Author(s):  
V.K. KHILCHEVSKYI ◽  
V.V. GREBIN
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
River Flow ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Small Reservoirs ◽  
National Importance ◽  
Distribution Features ◽  
The Status ◽  
Rental Rate

The aim of the study was to establish the territorial patterns of the distribution of reservoirs in administrative regions and river basin districts, to identify the role of large, medium and small reservoirs in the balance of river flow regulation in Ukraine. In Ukraine, there are only 1054 reservoirs, among which there are six large reservoirs of the Dnieper cascade and the Dniester reservoir, and all the remaining 99.3% (1047 reservoirs) belong to the middle (M), small (S) and very small (VS) categories. For convenience, we call this group with the abbreviation MSVS-reservoirs. All reservoirs have a total volume of 55.13 km3. Thus, reservoirs regulate 32% of the total river flow of the country, amounting to 170.3 km3 per year. There are two main patterns of territorial distribution of reservoirs: large reservoirs are located on large rivers (Dnieper and Dniester) and are of national importance; MSVS-reservoirs – were created to provide water to industrial regions (for example, Donetsk, Kharkiv) and have regional or local significance. In terms of the volume of accumulated water, Ukraine is a country of large reservoirs. The six reservoirs of the Dnieper cascade contain 79% of the water, in the Dniester – 6%, in the MSVS-reservoirs – 15%. The volume of reservoirs in the Dnieper cascade is 43.71 km3, which is 82% of the average long-term runoff of the Dnieper (53.5 km3 per year). The operation of the Dniester reservoir (3.0 km3), which was created in the transboundary city of Dniester (Ukraine – Moldova), is carried out taking into account the water management interests of the two countries. MSVS-reservoirs are unevenly distributed over the territory of Ukraine. The largest number of them is concentrated in the arid central and southeastern regions of Ukraine, 45% of the total number of MSVS-reservoirs is located in the region of the river basin Dnieper. The largest total values of the total volume and area of MSVS-reservoirs is in the Odesa region due to the Danube lakes, which have been granted the status of reservoirs. In the use of territorial communities in Ukraine, there are 72% of the MSVS-reservoirs, 28% – leased. Among the regions of Ukraine, most of all are rented MSVS-reservoirs in the Transcarpathian region – 78%. In the Zaporizhye region, 56% of the MSVS-reservoirs are leased, in the Ternopil region – 54%. There are leases of MSVS-reservoirs in Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv regions. Low values of the lease indicator were in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (4%), in Kherson (7%), Vinnitsa (8%) and Volyn regions (10% each). Among the regions of river basins, there are more leased MSVS-reservoirs in the regions of the river basins. Southern Bug – 35%, Dnieper – 32%. The minimum rental rate was in the region of the Crimean river basin (4%). There is a lease of MSVS-reservoirs in the area of the river basin. Vistula.

Impact of Climate Change on River Discharge Projected by Multimodel Ensemble

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 1076-1089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisuke Nohara ◽  
Akio Kitoh ◽  
Masahiro Hosaka ◽  
Taikan Oki
Keyword(s):  
River Discharge ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
First Century ◽  
Upstream Region ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract This study investigates the projections of river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world during the twenty-first century simulated by 19 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. To reduce model bias and uncertainty, a weighted ensemble mean (WEM) is used for multimodel projections. Although it is difficult to reproduce the present river discharge in any single model, the WEM results produce more accurate reproduction for most rivers, except those affected by anthropogenic water usage. At the end of the twenty-first century, the annual mean precipitation, evaporation, and runoff increase in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, southern to eastern Asia, and central Africa. In contrast, they decrease in the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southern North America, and Central America. Although the geographical distribution of the changes in precipitation and runoff tends to coincide with that in the river discharge, it should be emphasized that the change in runoff at the upstream region affects the river flow in the downstream region. In high-latitude rivers (Amur, Lena, MacKenzie, Ob, Yenisei, and Yukon), the discharge increases, and the peak timing shifts earlier because of an earlier snowmelt caused by global warming. Discharge tends to decrease for the rivers in Europe to the Mediterranean region (Danube, Euphrates, and Rhine), and southern United Sates (Rio Grande).

scholarly journals Uncertainties in satellite remote sensing of aerosols and impact on monitoring its long-term trend: a review and perspective

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 2755-2770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Li ◽  
X. Zhao ◽  
R. Kahn ◽  
M. Mishchenko ◽  
L. Remer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Noaa Avhrr ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Aerosol Parameters ◽  
Climate Studies ◽  
Cloud Screening

Abstract. As a result of increasing attention paid to aerosols in climate studies, numerous global satellite aerosol products have been generated. Aerosol parameters and underlining physical processes are now incorporated in many general circulation models (GCMs) in order to account for their direct and indirect effects on the earth's climate, through their interactions with the energy and water cycles. There exists, however, an outstanding problem that these satellite products have substantial discrepancies, that must be lowered substantially for narrowing the range of the estimates of aerosol's climate effects. In this paper, numerous key uncertain factors in the retrieval of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are articulated for some widely used and relatively long satellite aerosol products including the AVHRR, TOMS, MODIS, MISR, and SeaWiFS. We systematically review the algorithms developed for these sensors in terms of four key elements that influence the quality of passive satellite aerosol retrieval: calibration, cloud screening, classification of aerosol types, and surface effects. To gain further insights into these uncertain factors, the NOAA AVHRR data are employed to conduct various tests, which help estimate the ranges of uncertainties incurred by each of the factors. At the end, recommendations are made to cope with these issues and to produce a consistent and unified aerosol database of high quality for both environment monitoring and climate studies.

scholarly journals Seasonality of the hydrological cycle in major South and Southeast Asian River Basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 627-675 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Hasson ◽  
V. Lucarini ◽  
S. Pascale ◽  
J. Böhner
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Southeast Asian ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. In this study, we investigate how PCMDI/CMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs) represent the seasonal properties of the hydrological cycle in four major South and Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra and Mekong). First, we examine the skill of GCMs by analysing their simulations for the XX century climate (1961–2000) under present-day forcing, and then we analyse the projected changes for the corresponding XXI and XXII century climates under SRESA1B scenario. CMIP3 GCMs show a varying degree of skill in simulating the basic characteristics of the monsoonal precipitation regimes of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong basins, while the representation of the hydrological cycle over the Indus basin is poor in most cases, with few GCMs not capturing the monsoon signal at all. Although the models' outputs feature a remarkable spread for the monsoonal precipitations, a satisfactory representation of the western mid-latitude precipitation regime is instead observed. Similarly, most of the models exhibit a satisfactory agreement for the basin-integrated runoff in winter and spring, while the spread is large for the runoff during the monsoon season. For future climate scenarios, winter (spring) P − E decreases over all four (Indus and Ganges) basins due to decrease in precipitation associated with the western mid-latitude disturbances. Consequently, the spring (winter) runoff drops (rises) for the Indus and Ganges basins. Such changes indicate a shift from rather glacial and nival to more pluvial runoff regimes, particularly for the Indus basin. Furthermore, the rise in the projected runoff along with the increase in precipitations during summer and autumn indicates an intensification of the summer monsoon regime for all study basins.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document