Probabilistic Estimates of Transient Climate Sensitivity Subject to Uncertainty in Forcing and Natural Variability

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (21) ◽  
pp. 5521-5537 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren E. Padilla ◽  
Geoffrey K. Vallis ◽  
Clarence W. Rowley
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Transient Temperature ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this paper, the authors address the impact of uncertainty on estimates of transient climate sensitivity (TCS) of the globally averaged surface temperature, including both uncertainty in past forcing and internal variability in the climate record. This study provides a range of probabilistic estimates of the TCS that combine these two sources of uncertainty for various underlying assumptions about the nature of the uncertainty. The authors also provide estimates of how quickly the uncertainty in the TCS may be expected to diminish in the future as additional observations become available. These estimates are made using a nonlinear Kalman filter coupled to a stochastic, global energy balance model, using the filter and observations to constrain the model parameters. This study verifies that model and filter are able to emulate the evolution of a comprehensive, state-of-the-art atmosphere–ocean general circulation model and to accurately predict the TCS of the model, and then apply the methodology to observed temperature and forcing records of the twentieth century. For uncertainty assumptions best supported by global surface temperature data up to the present time, this paper finds a most likely present-day estimate of the transient climate sensitivity to be 1.6 K, with 90% confidence the response will fall between 1.3 and 2.6 K, and it is estimated that this interval may be 45% smaller by the year 2030. The authors calculate that emissions levels equivalent to forcing of less than 475 ppmv CO2 concentration are needed to ensure that the transient temperature response will not exceed 2 K with 95% confidence. This is an assessment for the short-to-medium term and not a recommendation for long-term stabilization forcing; the equilibrium temperature response to this level of CO2 may be much greater. The flat temperature trend of the last decade has a detectable but small influence on TCS. This study describes how the results vary if different uncertainty assumptions are made and shows they are robust to variations in the initial prior probability assumptions.

AMOC and Climate Responses to Dust Reduction and Greening of Sahara during the Mid-Holocene

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-59
Author(s):  
Ming Zhang ◽  
Yonggang Liu ◽  
Jian Zhang ◽  
Qin Wen
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
North Africa ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dust Reduction

AbstractThe North Africa was green during the mid-Holocene (6 ka) and emitting much less dust to the atmosphere than in present day. Here we use a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, CESM1.2.2, to test the impact of dust reduction and greening of Sahara on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during this period. Results show that dust removal leads to a decrease of AMOC by 6.2 % while greening of Sahara with 100 % shrub (100 % grass) causes an enhancement of the AMOC by 6.1 % (4.8 %). The AMOC is increased by 5.3 % (2.3 %) when both the dust reduction and green Sahara with 100 % shrub (100 % grass) are considered. The AMOC changes are primarily due to the precipitation change over the west subtropical North Atlantic, from where the salinity anomaly is advected to the deepwater formation region. Global mean surface temperature increases by 0.09 °C and 0.40 °C (0.25 °C) when global dust is removed and when North Africa and Arabian region are covered by shrub (grass), respectively, showing a dominating effect of vegetation over dust. The comparison between modeled and reconstructed sea-surface temperature is improved when the effect of vegetation is considered. The results may have implication for climate impact of future wetting over North Africa, either through global warming or through building of solar farms and wind farms.

scholarly journals The Rossby radius in the Arctic Ocean

Ocean Science ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 967-975 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. G. Nurser ◽  
S. Bacon
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Hudson Bay ◽  
Ocean Eddies ◽  
Shelf Seas ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The first (and second) baroclinic deformation (or Rossby) radii are presented north of ~60° N, focusing on deep basins and shelf seas in the high Arctic Ocean, the Nordic seas, Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, derived from climatological ocean data. In the high Arctic Ocean, the first Rossby radius increases from ~5 km in the Nansen Basin to ~15 km in the central Canadian Basin. In the shelf seas and elsewhere, values are low (1–7 km), reflecting weak density stratification, shallow water, or both. Seasonality strongly impacts the Rossby radius only in shallow seas, where winter homogenization of the water column can reduce it to below 1 km. Greater detail is seen in the output from an ice–ocean general circulation model, of higher resolution than the climatology. To assess the impact of secular variability, 10 years (2003–2012) of hydrographic stations along 150° W in the Beaufort Gyre are also analysed. The first-mode Rossby radius increases over this period by ~20%. Finally, we review the observed scales of Arctic Ocean eddies.

Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (23) ◽  
pp. 6312-6335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Tatsuo Suzuki ◽  
Ryouta O’ishi ◽  
Yoshiki Komuro ◽  
Shingo Watanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Mean Fields ◽  
Equatorial Ocean ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Difference

Abstract A new version of the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model cooperatively produced by the Japanese research community, known as the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), has recently been developed. A century-long control experiment was performed using the new version (MIROC5) with the standard resolution of the T85 atmosphere and 1° ocean models. The climatological mean state and variability are then compared with observations and those in a previous version (MIROC3.2) with two different resolutions (medres, hires), coarser and finer than the resolution of MIROC5. A few aspects of the mean fields in MIROC5 are similar to or slightly worse than MIROC3.2, but otherwise the climatological features are considerably better. In particular, improvements are found in precipitation, zonal mean atmospheric fields, equatorial ocean subsurface fields, and the simulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The difference between MIROC5 and the previous model is larger than that between the two MIROC3.2 versions, indicating a greater effect of updating parameterization schemes on the model climate than increasing the model resolution. The mean cloud property obtained from the sophisticated prognostic schemes in MIROC5 shows good agreement with satellite measurements. MIROC5 reveals an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.6 K, which is lower than that in MIROC3.2 by 1 K. This is probably due to the negative feedback of low clouds to the increasing concentration of CO2, which is opposite to that in MIROC3.2.

scholarly journals Modeling the present and future impact of aviation on climate: an AOGCM approach with online coupled chemistry

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10027-10048 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Huszar ◽  
H. Teyssèdre ◽  
M. Michou ◽  
A. Voldoire ◽  
D. J. L. Olivié ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Aviation Emissions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Our work is among the first that use an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) with online chemistry to evaluate the impact of future aviation emissions on temperature. Other particularities of our study include non-scaling to the aviation emissions, and the analysis of models' transient response using ensemble simulations. The model we use is the Météo-France CNRM-CM5.1 earth system model extended with the REPROBUS chemistry scheme. The time horizon of our interest is 1940–2100, assuming the A1B SRES scenario. We investigate the present and future impact of aviation emissions of CO2, NOx and H2O on climate, taking into account changes in greenhouse gases, contrails and contrail-induced cirrus (CIC). As in many transport-related impact studies, we distinguish between the climate impacts of CO2 emissions and those of non-CO2 emissions. Aviation-produced aerosol is not considered in the study. Our modeling system simulated a notable sea-ice bias in the Arctic, and therefore results concerning the surface should be viewed with caution. The global averaged near-surface CO2 impact reaches around 0.1 K by the end of the 21st century, while the non-CO2 impact reaches 0.2 K in the second half of the century. The NOx emissions impact is almost negligible in our simulations, as our aviation-induced ozone production is small. As a consequence, the non-CO2 signal is very similar to the CIC signal. The seasonal analysis shows that the strongest warming due to aviation is modeled for the late summer and early autumn. In the stratosphere, a significant cooling is attributed to aviation CO2 emissions (−0.25 K by 2100). A −0.3 K temperature decrease is modeled when considering all the aviation emissions, but no significant signal appears from the CIC or NOx forcings in the stratosphere.

scholarly journals Greenland warming during the last interglacial: the relative importance of insolation and oceanic changes

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmus A. Pedersen ◽  
Peter L. Langen ◽  
Bo M. Vinther
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Ice Core Record ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Insolation changes during the Eemian (the last interglacial period, 129–116 000 years before present) resulted in warmer than present conditions in the Arctic region. The NEEM ice core record suggests warming of 8±4 K in northwestern Greenland based on water stable isotopes. Here we use general circulation model experiments to investigate the causes of the Eemian warming in Greenland. Simulations of the atmospheric response to combinations of Eemian insolation and pre-industrial oceanic conditions and vice versa, are used to disentangle the impacts of the insolation change and the related changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions. The changed oceanic conditions cause warming throughout the year, prolonging the impact of the summertime insolation increase. Consequently, the oceanic conditions cause annual mean warming of 2 K at the NEEM site, whereas the insolation alone causes an insignificant change. Taking the precipitation changes into account, however, the insolation and oceanic changes cause more comparable increases in the precipitation-weighted temperature, implying that both contributions are important for the ice core record at the NEEM site. The simulated Eemian precipitation-weighted warming of 2.4 K at the NEEM site is low compared to the ice core reconstruction, partially due to missing feedbacks related to ice sheet changes. Surface mass balance calculations with an energy balance model indicate potential mass loss in the north and southwestern parts of the ice sheet. The oceanic conditions favor increased accumulation in the southeast, while the insolation appears to be the dominant cause of the expected ice sheet reduction.

scholarly journals Ocean-sea-ice coupling in a global ocean general circulation model

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 116-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Legutke ◽  
E. Maier-Reimkr ◽  
A. Stössel ◽  
A. Hellbach
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Ocean General Circulation ◽  
The Impact

A global ocean general circulation model has been coupled with a dynamic thermodynamic sea-ice model. This model has been spun-up in a 1000 year integration using daily atmosphere model data. Main water masses and currents are reproduced as well as the seasonal characteristics of the ice cover of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Model results for the Southern Ocean, however, show the ice cover as too thin, and there are large permanent polynyas in the Weddell and Ross Seas. These polynyas are due to a large upward oceanic heat flux caused by haline rejection during the freezing of sea ice. Sensitivity studies were performed to test several ways of treating the sea-surface salinity and the rejected brine. The impact on the ice cover, water-mass characteristics, and ocean circulation are described.

scholarly journals Is increasing ice crystal sedimentation velocity in geoengineering simulations a good proxy for cirrus cloud seeding?

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blaž Gasparini ◽  
Steffen Münch ◽  
Laure Poncet ◽  
Monika Feldmann ◽  
Ulrike Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sedimentation Velocity ◽  
Cirrus Clouds ◽  
Ice Crystal ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Diabatic Forcing

Abstract. The complex microphysical details of cirrus seeding with ice nucleating particles (INP) in numerical simulations are often mimicked by increasing ice crystal sedimentation velocities. So far it has not been tested whether these results are comparable to geoengineering simulations in which cirrus clouds are seeded with INP. We compare simulations where the ice crystal sedimentation velocity is increased at temperatures colder than −35 °C with simulations of cirrus seeding with INP using the ECHAM-HAM general circulation model. The radiative flux response of the two methods shows a similar behaviour in terms of annual and seasonal averages. Both methods decrease surface temperature but increase precipitation in response to a decreased atmospheric stability. Moreover, simulations of seeding with INP lead to a decrease in liquid clouds, which counteracts part of the cooling due to changes in cirrus clouds. The liquid cloud response is largely avoided in a simulation where seeding occurs during night only. Simulations with increased ice crystal sedimentation velocity, on the contrary, lead to counteracting mixed-phase cloud responses. The increased sedimentation velocity simulations induce a 30 % larger surface temperature response, due to their lower altitude of maximum diabatic forcing compared with simulations of seeding with INP particles. They can counteract up to 60 % of the radiative effect of CO2 doubling with a maximum net top-of-the-atmosphere forcing of  2.2 W m−2.

Impact of Orbital Parameters and Greenhouse Gas on the Climate of MIS 7 and MIS 5 Glacial Inceptions

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (23) ◽  
pp. 8918-8933 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florence Colleoni ◽  
Simona Masina ◽  
Annalisa Cherchi ◽  
Doroteaciro Iovino
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Orbital Parameters ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mis 5

Abstract This work explores the impact of orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate of marine isotope stage (MIS) 7 glacial inception and compares it to that of MIS 5. The authors use a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to simulate the mean climate state of six time slices at 115, 122, 125, 229, 236, and 239 kyr, representative of a climate evolution from interglacial to glacial inception conditions. The simulations are designed to separate the effects of orbital parameters from those of greenhouse gas (GHG). Their results show that, in all the time slices considered, MIS 7 boreal lands mean annual climate is colder than the MIS 5 one. This difference is explained at 70% by the impact of the MIS 7 GHG. While the impact of GHG over Northern Hemisphere is homogeneous, the difference in temperature between MIS 7 and MIS 5 due to orbital parameters differs regionally and is linked with the Arctic Oscillation. The perennial snow cover is larger in all the MIS 7 experiments compared to MIS 5, as a result of MIS 7 orbital parameters, strengthened by GHG. At regional scale, Eurasia exhibits the strongest response to MIS 7 cold climate with a perennial snow area 3 times larger than in MIS 5 experiments. This suggests that MIS 7 glacial inception is more favorable over this area than over North America. Furthermore, at 239 kyr, the perennial snow covers an area equivalent to that of MIS 5 glacial inception (115 kyr). The authors suggest that MIS 7 glacial inception is more extensive than MIS 5 glacial inception over the high latitudes.

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