High-Resolution Coupled Climate Runoff Simulations of Seasonal Snowfall over Colorado: A Process Study of Current and Warmer Climate

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (12) ◽  
pp. 3015-3048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy Rasmussen ◽  
Changhai Liu ◽  
Kyoko Ikeda ◽  
David Gochis ◽  
David Yates ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Total Runoff ◽  
Lower Elevation ◽  
Topographic Reduction

Abstract Climate change is expected to accelerate the hydrologic cycle, increase the fraction of precipitation that is rain, and enhance snowpack melting. The enhanced hydrological cycle is also expected to increase snowfall amounts due to increased moisture availability. These processes are examined in this paper in the Colorado Headwaters region through the use of a coupled high-resolution climate–runoff model. Four high-resolution simulations of annual snowfall over Colorado are conducted. The simulations are verified using Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) data. Results are then presented regarding the grid spacing needed for appropriate simulation of snowfall. Finally, climate sensitivity is explored using a pseudo–global warming approach. The results show that the proper spatial and temporal depiction of snowfall adequate for water resource and climate change purposes can be achieved with the appropriate choice of model grid spacing and parameterizations. The pseudo–global warming simulations indicate enhanced snowfall on the order of 10%–25% over the Colorado Headwaters region, with the enhancement being less in the core headwaters region due to the topographic reduction of precipitation upstream of the region (rain-shadow effect). The main climate change impacts are in the enhanced melting at the lower-elevation bound of the snowpack and the increased snowfall at higher elevations. The changes in peak snow mass are generally near zero due to these two compensating effects, and simulated wintertime total runoff is above current levels. The 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) is reduced by 25% in the warmer climate, and the date of maximum SWE occurs 2–17 days prior to current climate results, consistent with previous studies.

scholarly journals Regions of intensification of extreme snowfall under future warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Quante ◽  
Sven N. Willner ◽  
Robin Middelanis ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Average Intensity ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Future Warming

AbstractDue to climate change the frequency and character of precipitation are changing as the hydrological cycle intensifies. With regards to snowfall, global warming has two opposing influences; increasing humidity enables intense snowfall, whereas higher temperatures decrease the likelihood of snowfall. Here we show an intensification of extreme snowfall across large areas of the Northern Hemisphere under future warming. This is robust across an ensemble of global climate models when they are bias-corrected with observational data. While mean daily snowfall decreases, both the 99th and the 99.9th percentiles of daily snowfall increase in many regions in the next decades, especially for Northern America and Asia. Additionally, the average intensity of snowfall events exceeding these percentiles as experienced historically increases in many regions. This is likely to pose a challenge to municipalities in mid to high latitudes. Overall, extreme snowfall events are likely to become an increasingly important impact of climate change in the next decades, even if they will become rarer, but not necessarily less intense, in the second half of the century.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts Assessment on Wine-Growing Bioclimatic Transition Areas

Agriculture ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 605
Author(s):  
Alba Piña-Rey ◽  
Estefanía González-Fernández ◽  
María Fernández-González ◽  
Mª. Nieves Lorenzo ◽  
Fco. Javier Rodríguez-Rajo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Cultural Practice ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Bioclimatic Indices ◽  
Northwestern Spain ◽  
The Mediterranean

Viticultural climatic indices were assessed for the evaluation of the meteorological variations in the requirements of wine cultivars. The applied bioclimatic indices have been widely used to provide an initial evaluation of climate change impacts on grapevine and to delineate wine regions and suitable areas for planting around the world. The study was carried out over a period of 16 years (from 2000 to 2015) in five Designation of Origin areas in Northwestern Spain located in the Eurosiberian region, the transition zone between the Eurosiberian and the Mediterranean areas, and in the Mediterranean area. In addition, the high-resolution meteorological dataset “Spain02” was applied to the bioclimatic indices for the period 1950–2095. To further assess the performance of “Spain02”, Taylor diagrams were elaborated for the different bioclimatic indices. A significant trend to an increase of the Winkler, Huglin, Night Cold Index and GSS Indices was detected in the North-western Spain, whereas slight negative trends for BBLI and GSP Indices were observed. To analyze future projections 2061–2095, data from the high-resolution dynamically downscaled daily climate simulations from EURO-CORDEX project were used. To further assess the performance of Spain02, Taylor diagrams were elaborated for the different bioclimatic indices. A trend to an increase of the Winkler, Huglin, Night Cold Index and GSP Indices was detected in Northwestern Spain, whereas slight negative trends for BBLI and GSP Indices were observed. Our results showed that climatic conditions in the study region could variate for the crop in the future, more for Mediterranean than Eurosiberian bioclimatic area. Due to an advance in the phenological events or the vintage data, more alcohol-fortified wines and variations in the acidity level of wines could be expected in Northwestern Spain, these processes being most noticeable in the Mediterranean area. The projections for the BBLI and GSP Indices will induce a decrease in the pressure of the mildew attacks incidence in the areas located at the Eurosiberian region and the nearest transition zones. Projections showed if the trend of temperature increase continues, some cultural practice variations should be conducted in order to preserve the grape cultivation suitability in the studied area.

Introduction

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Eelco J. Rohling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Is Implementation

This chapter outlines the challenge facing us. The Paris Agreement sets a target maximum of 2°C global warming and a preferred limit of 1.5°C. Yet, the subsequent combined national pledges for emission reduction suffice only for limiting warming to roughly 3°C. And because most nations are falling considerably short of meeting their pledges, even greater warming may become locked in. Something more drastic and wide-ranging is needed: a multi-pronged strategy. These different prongs to the climate-change solution are introduced in this chapter and explored one by one in the following chapters. First is rapid, massive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Second is implementation of ways to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Third may be increasing the reflectivity of Earth to incoming sunlight, to cool certain places down more rapidly. In addition, we need to protect ourselves from climate-change impacts that have already become inevitable.

scholarly journals Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds

2020 ◽  
Vol 163 (3) ◽  
pp. 1329-1351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Gädeke ◽  
Valentina Krysanova ◽  
Aashutosh Aryal ◽  
Jinfeng Chang ◽  
Manolis Grillakis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Performance Evaluation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Seasonal Discharge

AbstractGlobal Water Models (GWMs), which include Global Hydrological, Land Surface, and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, present valuable tools for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrological processes in the data scarce high latitudes. Here we performed a systematic model performance evaluation in six major Pan-Arctic watersheds for different hydrological indicators (monthly and seasonal discharge, extremes, trends (or lack of), and snow water equivalent (SWE)) via a novel Aggregated Performance Index (API) that is based on commonly used statistical evaluation metrics. The machine learning Boruta feature selection algorithm was used to evaluate the explanatory power of the API attributes. Our results show that the majority of the nine GWMs included in the study exhibit considerable difficulties in realistically representing Pan-Arctic hydrological processes. Average APIdischarge (monthly and seasonal discharge) over nine GWMs is > 50% only in the Kolyma basin (55%), as low as 30% in the Yukon basin and averaged over all watersheds APIdischarge is 43%. WATERGAP2 and MATSIRO present the highest (APIdischarge > 55%) while ORCHIDEE and JULES-W1 the lowest (APIdischarge ≤ 25%) performing GWMs over all watersheds. For the high and low flows, average APIextreme is 35% and 26%, respectively, and over six GWMs APISWE is 57%. The Boruta algorithm suggests that using different observation-based climate data sets does not influence the total score of the APIs in all watersheds. Ultimately, only satisfactory to good performing GWMs that effectively represent cold-region hydrological processes (including snow-related processes, permafrost) should be included in multi-model climate change impact assessments in Pan-Arctic watersheds.

scholarly journals Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 1593-1614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Hanzer ◽  
Kristian Förster ◽  
Johanna Nemec ◽  
Ulrich Strasser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this – to date – the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–165 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

scholarly journals Assessing the Effectiveness of Supplemental Irrigation to Improve Soil Moisture in an Arid Ecosystem with an Emphasis on Climate Change: A Case Study from the State of Kuwait

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9104
Author(s):  
Ahmed Alqallaf ◽  
Bader Al-Anzi ◽  
Meshal Alabdullah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Arid Ecosystems ◽  
Arid Ecosystem ◽  
Supplemental Irrigation ◽  
The State Of Kuwait

Arid ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change, which is considered one of the serious global environmental issues that can cause critical challenges to the hydrological cycle in arid ecosystems. This work focused on assessing the effectiveness of supplemental irrigation to improve the actual soil moisture content in arid ecosystems and considering climate change impacts on soil moisture. The study was conducted at two fenced protected sites in Kuwait. The first site is naturally covered with Rhanterietum epapposum, whereas the other study site is a supplemented irrigated site, containing several revegetated native plants. The results showed that supplemental irrigation highly improved soil moisture (∆SM) during the winter season by >50%. However, during the summer season, the rainfed and irrigated site showed low ∆SM due to the high temperature and high evapotranspiration (ET) rates. We also found that ∆SM would negatively get impacted by climate change. The climate change projection results showed that temperature would increase by 12%–23%, ET would increase by 17%–19%, and precipitation would decrease by 31%–46% by 2100. Such climate change impacts may also shift the current ecosystem from an arid to a hyper-arid ecosystem. Therefore, we concluded that irrigation is a practical option to support the ∆SM during the low-temperature months only (spring and winter) since the results did not show any progress during the summer season. It is also essential to consider the possibility of future shifting in ecosystems and plant communities in restoration and revegetation planning.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on fish infectious diseases (a review)

2020 ◽  
pp. 78-110
Author(s):  
Yu. Rud ◽  
◽  
O. Zaloilo ◽  
L. Buchatsky ◽  
I. Hrytsyniak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Fish Farms ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Climate ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Purpose. As the climate change impacts freshwater and marine ecosystems, and rising ocean temperatures and acidification continue to this moment, our aim was to analyze the literature and summarize information on the development of fish infectious diseases in the light of global warming. Findings. Even a slight increase in temperature affects the life cycle, physiology, behavior, distribution and structure of populations of aquatic bioresources, especially fish. Recent studies show that some infectious diseases of fish spread much faster with increasing temperature. Climate change contributes to pathogens spread in both marine and freshwater areas. In particular, rising water temperatures can expand the range of diseases. Aquatic bioresources have high cumulative mortality from infectious diseases, and pathogens are rapidly progressing, and these phenomena may be powered by climate change, leading to the geographical spread of virulent pathogens to fisheries and aquaculture facilities, threatening much of global production and food security. The article presents data on the impact of climate change and global warming on aquaculture and fisheries. The list of the main pathogens of fish of various etiology in Ukraine, including viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases is presented. The impact of infectious agents on modern aquaculture is described and the main ideas about the possible long-term consequences of climate change for fish farms are given. Practical Value. The review may be useful for specialists in veterinary medicine, epizootology and ichthyopathology. Key words: climate change, infectious diseases of fish, pathogenesis.

scholarly journals Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Hanzer ◽  
Kristian Förster ◽  
Johanna Nemec ◽  
Ulrich Strasser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios as forcing data. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–16 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century, however decreases of 25–80 % in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

scholarly journals RCP 8.5 Ghana. High-end climate change impacts on crop production

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia Tramberend ◽  
Günther Fischer ◽  
Harrij van Velthuizen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan

<p>Climate change threatens vulnerable communities in sub-Saharan Africa who face significant challenges for adaptation. Agriculture provides the livelihood for the majority of population. High-resolution assessments of the effects of climate change on crop production are urgently needed for targeted adaptation planning. In Ghana, next to food needs, agriculture plays an important role on international cocoa markets. To this end, we develop and apply a National Agro-Ecological Zoning system (NAEZ Ghana) to analyze the impacts of high-end (RCP8.5) global warming on agricultural production potentials until the end of this century. NAEZ Ghana uses an ensemble of the CORDEX Africa Regional Climate Model, a regional soil map, to assess development trends of crop production potentials for 19 main crops. Results highlight differential impacts across the country. Especially due to the significant increase in the number of days exceeding high-temperature thresholds, rain-fed production of several food and export crops could be reduced significantly compared to the historical 30-year average (1981-2010). Plantain production, an important food crop, could achieve under climate change less than half of its current potential already in the 2050s and less than 10% by the 2080s. Suitable areas for cocoa production decrease strongly resulting in only one third of production potential compared to today. Other crops with detrimental effects of climate change include oil palm, sugarcane, coffee, and rubber. Production of maize, sorghum, and millet cope well with a future warmer climate. The NAEZ Ghana database provides valuable high-resolution information to support agricultural sector development planning and climate change adaptation strategies. The expansion of irrigation development will play a central role in some areas. This requires further research on Ghana’s linkages between food, water, and energy, taking into account climate and socio-economic changes.</p>

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