Sensitivity of the Aerosol Indirect Effect to Subgrid Variability in the Cloud Parameterization of the GFDL Atmosphere General Circulation Model AM3

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (13) ◽  
pp. 3145-3160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Christophe Golaz ◽  
Marc Salzmann ◽  
Leo J. Donner ◽  
Larry W. Horowitz ◽  
Yi Ming ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Indirect Effect ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Radiation Balance ◽  
Cloud Drop ◽  
Aerosol Indirect Effect ◽  
Alternate Model

Abstract The recently developed GFDL Atmospheric Model version 3 (AM3), an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), incorporates a prognostic treatment of cloud drop number to simulate the aerosol indirect effect. Since cloud drop activation depends on cloud-scale vertical velocities, which are not reproduced in present-day GCMs, additional assumptions on the subgrid variability are required to implement a local activation parameterization into a GCM. This paper describes the subgrid activation assumptions in AM3 and explores sensitivities by constructing alternate configurations. These alternate model configurations exhibit only small differences in their present-day climatology. However, the total anthropogenic radiative flux perturbation (RFP) between present-day and preindustrial conditions varies by ±50% from the reference, because of a large difference in the magnitude of the aerosol indirect effect. The spread in RFP does not originate directly from the subgrid assumptions but indirectly through the cloud retuning necessary to maintain a realistic radiation balance. In particular, the paper shows a linear correlation between the choice of autoconversion threshold radius and the RFP. Climate sensitivity changes only minimally between the reference and alternate configurations. If implemented in a fully coupled model, these alternate configurations would therefore likely produce substantially different warming from preindustrial to present day.

scholarly journals Influence of Surface Topography on the Critical Carbon Dioxide Level Required for the Formation of a Modern Snowball Earth

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (20) ◽  
pp. 8463-8479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yonggang Liu ◽  
W. Richard Peltier ◽  
Jun Yang ◽  
Yongyun Hu
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Snowball Earth ◽  
Ice Dynamics

The influence of continental topography on the initiation of a global glaciation (i.e., snowball Earth) is studied with both a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), CCSM3, and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), CAM3 coupled to a slab ocean model. It is found that when the climate is very cold, snow cover over the central region of the Eurasian continent decreases when the atmospheric CO2 concentration ( pCO2) is reduced. In the coupled model, this constitutes a negative feedback due to the reduction of land surface albedo that counteracts the positive feedback due to sea ice expansion toward the equator. When the solar insolation is 94% of the present-day value, Earth enters a snowball state when pCO2 is ~35 ppmv. On the other hand, if the continents are assumed to be flat topographically (with the global mean elevation as in the more realistic present-day case), Earth enters a snowball state more easily at pCO2 = ~60 ppmv. Therefore, the presence of topography may increase the stability of Earth against descent into a snowball state. On the contrary, a snowball Earth is found to form much more easily when complex topography is present than when it is not in CAM3. This happens despite the fact that the mid- to high-latitude climate is much warmer (by ~10°C) when topography is present than when it is not. Analyses show that neglecting sea ice dynamics in this model prevents the warming anomaly in the mid- to high latitudes from being efficiently transmitted into the tropics.

scholarly journals Influence of Giant CCN on warm rain processes in the ECHAM5 GCM

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (14) ◽  
pp. 3769-3788 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Posselt ◽  
U. Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Indirect Effect ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Total Water ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Indirect Effect ◽  
Cloud Properties

Abstract. Increased Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) load due to anthropogenic activity might lead to non-precipitating clouds because the cloud drops become smaller (for a constant liquid water content) and, therefore, less efficient in rain formation (aerosol indirect effect). Adding giant CCN (GCCN) into such a cloud can initiate precipitation (namely, drizzle) and, therefore, might counteract the aerosol indirect effect. The effect of GCCN on global climate on warm clouds and precipitation within the ECHAM5 General Circulation Model (GCM) is investigated. Therefore, the newly introduced prognostic rain scheme (Posselt and Lohmann, 2007) is applied so that GCCN are directly activated into rain drops. The ECHAM5 simulations with incorporated GCCN show that precipitation is affected only locally. On the global scale, the precipitation amount does not change. Cloud properties like total water (liquid + rain water) and cloud drop number show a larger sensitivity to GCCN. Depending on the amount of added GCCN, the reduction of total water and cloud drops account for up to 20% compared to the control run without GCCN. Thus, the incorporation of the GCCN accelerate the hydrological cycle so that clouds precipitate faster (but not more) and less condensed water is accumulated in the atmosphere. An estimate of the anthropogenic aerosol indirect effect on the climate is obtained by comparing simulations for present-day and pre-industrial climate. The introduction of the prognostic rain scheme lowered the anthropogenic aerosol indirect effect significantly compared to the standard ECHAM5 with the diagnostic rain scheme. The incorporation of the GCCN changes the model state, especially the cloud properties like TWP and Nl. The precipitation changes only locally but globally the precipitation is unaffected because it has to equal the global mean evaporation rate. Changing the cloud properties leads to a local reduction of the aerosol indirect effect and, hence, partly compensating for the increased anthropogenic CCN concentrations in that regions. Globally, the aerosol indirect effect is nearly the same for all simulations.

scholarly journals The HadGEM3-GA7.1 radiative kernel: the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Smith ◽  
Ryan J. Kramer ◽  
Adriana Sima
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Linear Behaviour ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. We present top-of-atmosphere and surface radiative kernels based on the atmospheric component (GA7.1) of the HadGEM3 general circulation model developed by the UK Met Office. We show that the utility of radiative kernels for forcing adjustments in idealised CO2 perturbation experiments is most appropriate where there is sufficiently high resolution in the stratosphere in both the target climate model and the radiative kernel. This is because stratospheric cooling to a CO2 perturbation continues to increase with height, and low-resolution or low-top kernels or climate model output are unable to fully resolve the full stratospheric temperature adjustment. In the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), standard atmospheric model data is available up to 1 hPa on 19 pressure levels, which is a substantial advantage compared to CMIP5. We show in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model where a full set of climate diagnostics are available that the HadGEM3-GA7.1 kernel exhibits linear behaviour and the residual error term is small. From kernels available in the literature we recommend three kernels for adjustment calculations to CO2 and well-mixed greenhouse gas perturbations based on their stratospheric resolution: HadGEM3-GA7.1, ECMWF-Oslo, and ECHAM6. The HadGEM3-GA7.1 radiative kernels are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3594673 (Smith, 2019).

scholarly journals The HadGEM3-GA7.1 radiative kernel: the importance of a well-resolved stratosphere

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 2157-2168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Smith ◽  
Ryan J. Kramer ◽  
Adriana Sima
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Linear Behaviour ◽  
Stratospheric Cooling ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. We present top-of-atmosphere and surface radiative kernels based on the atmospheric component (GA7.1) of the HadGEM3 general circulation model developed by the UK Met Office. We show that the utility of radiative kernels for forcing adjustments in idealised CO2 perturbation experiments is greatest where there is sufficiently high resolution in the stratosphere in both the target climate model and the radiative kernel. This is because stratospheric cooling to a CO2 perturbation continues to increase with height, and low-resolution or low-top kernels or climate model output are unable to fully resolve the full stratospheric temperature adjustment. In the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), standard atmospheric model data are available up to 1 hPa on 19 pressure levels, which is a substantial advantage compared to CMIP5. We show in the IPSL-CM6A-LR model where a full set of climate diagnostics are available that the HadGEM3-GA7.1 kernel exhibits linear behaviour and the residual error term is small, as well as from a survey of kernels available in the literature that in general low-top radiative kernels underestimate the stratospheric temperature response. The HadGEM3-GA7.1 radiative kernels are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3594673 (Smith, 2019).

scholarly journals Simulated 2050 aviation radiative forcing

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.-C. Chen ◽  
A. Gettelman
Keyword(s):  
Indirect Effect ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Number Concentration ◽  
Sulfate Aerosols ◽  
Cloud Drop ◽  
Drop Number ◽  
Carbon Aerosols

Abstract. The radiative forcing from aviation is investigated by using a comprehensive general circulation model in the present (2006) and the future (through 2050). Global flight distance is projected to increase by a factor of 4 between 2006 and 2050. However, simulated contrail cirrus radiative forcing in 2050 can reach 87 mW m−2, an increase by a factor of 7 from 2006, and thus does not scale linearly with fuel emission mass. This is due to non-uniform regional increase in air traffic and different sensitivities for contrail radiative forcing in different regions. Simulations indicate that negative radiative forcing induced by the indirect effect of aviation sulfate aerosols on liquid clouds in 2050 can be as large as −160 mW m−2, an increase by a factor of 4 from 2006. As a result, the net 2050 aviation radiative forcing has a cooling effect on the planet. Aviation sulfate aerosols emitted at cruise altitude can be transported down to the lower troposphere, increasing the aerosol concentration, thus increasing the cloud drop number concentration and persistence of low-level clouds. Aviation black carbon aerosols produce a negligible net forcing globally in 2006 and 2050.

scholarly journals Retrospective Forecasts of Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies from 1982 to Present Using a Directly Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (10) ◽  
pp. 2972-2995 ◽  
Author(s):  
David G. DeWitt
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Ocean General Circulation

Abstract A large number of ensemble hindcasts (or retrospective forecasts) of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) have been made with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) that does not employ flux correction in order to evaluate the potential skill of the model as a seasonal forecasting tool. Oceanic initial conditions are provided by an ocean data assimilation system. Ensembles of seven forecasts of 6-month length are made starting each month in the 1982 to 2002 period. Skill of the coupled model is evaluated from both a deterministic and a probabilistic perspective. The skill metrics are calculated using both the bulk method, which includes all initial condition months together, and as a function of initial condition month. The latter method allows a more objective evaluation of how the model has performed in the context in which forecasts are actually made and applied. The deterministic metrics used are the anomaly correlation and the root-mean-square error. The coupled model deterministic skill metrics are compared with those from persistence and damped persistence reference forecasts. Despite the fact that the coupled model has a large cold bias in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific this coupled model is shown to have forecast skill that is competitive with other state-of-the-art forecasting techniques. Potential skill from probabilistic forecasts made using the coupled model ensemble members are evaluated using the relative operating characteristics method. This analysis indicates that for most initial condition months this coupled model has more skill at forecasting cold events than warm or neutral events in the central Pacific. In common with other forecasting systems, the coupled model forecast skill is found to be lowest for forecasts passing through the Northern Hemisphere (NH) spring. Diagnostics of this so-called spring predictability barrier in the context of this coupled model indicate that two factors likely contribute to this predictability barrier. First, the coupled model shows a too-weak coupling of the surface and subsurface temperature anomalies during NH spring. Second, the coupled-model-simulated signal-to-noise ratio for SST anomalies is much lower during NH spring than at other times of the year, indicating that the model’s potential predictability is low at this time.

scholarly journals Global Atmospheric Model Simulates Fine Details of Gravity Waves

Eos ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Puneet Kollipara
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Wave ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Gravity Waves ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Global Atmospheric Model ◽  
Atmosphere General Circulation Model

Whole-atmosphere general circulation model captures many aspects of mesoscale gravity wave structures—down to the tens of kilometers—and resulting temperatures and tides.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Weather Noise and Its Role in Climate Model Simulations*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 3766-3784 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hua Chen ◽  
Edwin K. Schneider ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman ◽  
Ioana Colfescu
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Destructive Interference ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Weather Noise

Abstract The relationship between coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations and uncoupled simulations made with specified SST and sea ice is investigated using the Community Climate System Model, version 3. Experiments are carried out in a perfect model framework. Two closely related questions are investigated: 1) whether the statistics of the atmospheric weather noise in the atmospheric model are the same as in the coupled model, and 2) whether the atmospheric model reproduces the SST-forced response of the coupled model. The weather noise in both the coupled and uncoupled simulations is found by removing the forced response, as determined from the uncoupled ensemble, from the atmospheric field. The weather-noise variance is generally not distinguishable between the coupled and uncoupled simulations. However, variances of the total fields differ between the coupled and uncoupled simulations, since there is constructive or destructive interference between the SST-forced response and weather noise in the coupled model but no correlation between the SST-forced and weather-noise components in the uncoupled model simulations. Direct regression estimates of the forced response show little difference between the coupled and uncoupled simulations. Differences in local correlations are explained by weather noise because weather noise forces SST in the coupled simulation only. The results demonstrate and explain an important intrinsic difference in precipitation statistics between the coupled and uncoupled simulations. This difference could have consequences for the design of dynamical downscaling experiments and for tuning general circulation models.

scholarly journals A Technique for Dynamically Downscaling Daily-Averaged GCM Datasets Using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcus Thatcher ◽  
John L. McGregor
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Interpolation Formula ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Order Estimate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Selective Filter

Abstract In this paper the authors dynamically downscale daily-averaged general circulation model (GCM) datasets over Australia using the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM). The technique can take advantage of the wider range of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) daily-averaged GCM datasets than is available using 3-hourly datasets. The daily-averaged host GCM atmospheric data are fitted to a time interpolation formula and then differentiated in time to produce a first-order estimate of the atmosphere at 0000 UTC on each simulation day. The processed GCM data are forced into CCAM using a scale-selective filter with an 18° radius. Since this procedure is unable to account for the diurnal cycle, the forcing data are only applied to winds and air temperatures once per day between 800 and 100 hPa. Lateral boundary conditions are not required since CCAM employs a variable-resolution global grid. The technique is evaluated by downscaling daily-averaged 2.5° NCEP reanalyses over Australia at 60-km resolution from 1971 to 2000 and comparing the results to downscaling the 6-hourly reanalyses and to simulating with sea surface temperature (SST)-only forcing. The results show that the daily-averaged downscaling technique can simulate average seasonal maximum and minimum screen temperatures and rainfall similar to those obtained downscaling 6-hourly reanalyses. Some implications for regional climate projections are considered by downscaling four daily-averaged GCM datasets from the twentieth-century climate in coupled models (20C3M) experiment over Australia.

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