scholarly journals Modulation of North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity by Three Phases of ENSO

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1839-1849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hye-Mi Kim ◽  
Peter J. Webster ◽  
Judith A. Curry
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Monsoon Trough ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Northwestern Part ◽  
Westerly Wind ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
East Pacific ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract Tropical Pacific Ocean warming has been separated into two modes based on the spatial distribution of the maximum sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly: an east Pacific warming (EPW) and a central Pacific warming (CPW). When combined with east Pacific cooling (EPC), these three regimes are shown to have different impacts on tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the North Pacific by differential modulation of both local thermodynamic factors and large-scale circulation patterns. In EPW years, the genesis and the track density of TCs tend to be enhanced over the southeastern part and suppressed in the northwestern part of the western Pacific by strong westerly wind shear. The extension of the monsoon trough and the weak wind shear over the central Pacific increases the likelihood of TC activity to the east of the climatological mean TC genesis location. In CPW years, the TC activity is shifted to the west and is extended through the northwestern part of the western Pacific. The westward shifting of CPW-induced heating moves the anomalous westerly wind and monsoon trough through the northwestern part of the western Pacific and provides a more favorable condition for TC landfall. The CPW, on the other hand, produces a large suppression of TC activity in the eastern Pacific basin. In EPC years, all of the variables investigated show almost a mirror image of the EPW.

scholarly journals Interbasin Differences in the Relationship between SST and Tropical Cyclone Intensification

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (3) ◽  
pp. 853-870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory R. Foltz ◽  
Karthik Balaguru ◽  
Samson Hagos
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Sst Cooling ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Western Pacific

Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important parameters for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification. Here, it is shown that the relationship between SST and TC intensification varies considerably from basin to basin, with SST explaining less than 4% of the variance in TC intensification rates in the Atlantic, 12% in the western North Pacific, and 23% in the eastern Pacific. Several factors are shown to be responsible for these interbasin differences. First, variability of SST along TCs’ tracks is lower in the Atlantic. This is due to smaller horizontal SST gradients in the Atlantic, compared to the Pacific, and stronger damping of prestorm SST’s contribution to TC intensification by the storm-induced cold SST wake in the Atlantic. The damping occurs because SST tends to vary in phase with TC-induced SST cooling: in the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Atlantic, where SSTs are highest, TCs tend to be strongest and their translations slowest, resulting in the strongest storm-induced cooling. The tendency for TCs to be more intense over the warmest SST in the Atlantic also limits the usefulness of SST as a predictor since stronger storms are less likely to experience intensification. Finally, SST tends to vary out of phase with vertical wind shear and outflow temperature in the western Pacific. This strengthens the relationship between SST and TC intensification more in the western Pacific than in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic. Combined, these factors explain why prestorm SST is such a poor predictor of TC intensification in the Atlantic, compared to the eastern and western North Pacific.

scholarly journals Changes in Independency between Two Types of El Niño Events under a Greenhouse Warming Scenario in CMIP5 Models

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (19) ◽  
pp. 7561-7575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
Yerim Jeong ◽  
Jong-Seong Kug
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Greenhouse Warming ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
The Western Pacific ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract This study uses archives from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to investigate changes in independency between two types of El Niño events caused by greenhouse warming. In the observations, the independency between cold tongue (CT) and warm pool (WP) El Niño events is distinctively increased in recent decades. The simulated changes in independency between the two types of El Niño events according to the CMIP5 models are quite diverse, although the observed features are simulated to some extent in several climate models. It is found that the climatological change after global warming is an essential factor in determining the changes in independency between the two types of El Niño events. For example, the independency between these events is increased after global warming when the climatological precipitation is increased mainly over the equatorial central Pacific. This climatological precipitation increase extends convective response to the east, particularly for CT El Niño events, which leads to greater differences in the spatial pattern between the two types of El Niño events to increase the El Niño independency. On the contrary, in models with decreased independency between the two types of El Niño events after global warming, climatological precipitation is increased mostly over the western Pacific. This confines the atmospheric response to the western Pacific in both El Niño events; therefore, the similarity between them is increased after global warming. In addition to the changes in the climatological state after global warming, a possible connection of the changes in the El Niño independency with the historical mean state is discussed in this paper.

scholarly journals Vertical Structure and Energetics of the Western Pacific Teleconnection Pattern

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (18) ◽  
pp. 6597-6616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sho Tanaka ◽  
Kazuaki Nishii ◽  
Hisashi Nakamura
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Thermal Gradient ◽  
Far East ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract The western Pacific (WP) pattern, characterized by north–south dipolar anomalies in pressure over the Far East and western North Pacific, is known as one of the dominant teleconnection patterns in the wintertime Northern Hemisphere. Composite analysis reveals that monthly height anomalies exhibit baroclinic structure with their phase lines tilting southwestward with height in the lower troposphere. The anomalies can thus yield not only a poleward heat flux across the climatological thermal gradient across the strong Pacific jet but also a westward heat flux across the climatological thermal gradient between the North Pacific and the cooler Asian continent. The resultant baroclinic conversion of available potential energy (APE) from the climatological-mean flow contributes most efficiently to the APE maintenance of the monthly WP pattern, acting against strong thermal damping effects by anomalous heat exchanges with the underlying ocean and anomalous precipitation in the subtropics and by the effect of anomalous eddy heat flux under modulated storm-track activity. Kinetic energy (KE) of the pattern is maintained through barotropic feedback forcing associated with modulated activity of transient eddies and the conversion from the climatological-mean westerlies, both of which act against frictional damping. The net feedback forcing by transient eddies is therefore not particularly efficient. The present study suggests that the WP pattern has a characteristic of a dynamical mode that can maintain itself through efficient energy conversion from the climatological-mean fields even without external forcing, including remote influence from the tropics.

Impact of the cross-tropopause wind shear on tropical cyclone genesis over the Western North Pacific in May

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 3845-3855 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingliang Huangfu ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Maoqiu Jian ◽  
Ronghui Huang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Cyclone Genesis

scholarly journals Western Pacific SST Prediction with an Intermediate El Niño Prediction Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 133 (5) ◽  
pp. 1343-1352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong-Seong Kug ◽  
In-Sik Kang ◽  
Jong-Ghap Jhun
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract To improve forecasting skills in the western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), the authors utilized and modified an intermediate El Niño prediction model. The original model does not have the major SST thermodynamics for western Pacific SST variability, so it cannot simulate interannual variation in the western Pacific correctly. Therefore, the authors have introduced some modifications, such as heat flux and vertical mixing, into the dynamical model in order to capture SST thermodynamics more realistically. The modified model has better forecast skill than the original one, not only for the western Pacific but also for the eastern-central Pacific. The model has predictive skill up to 6-months lead time as judged by a correlation exceeding 0.5.

scholarly journals Multidecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Western North Pacific

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3806-3820 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xidong Wang ◽  
Chunzai Wang ◽  
Liping Zhang ◽  
Xin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Heat Potential

Abstract This study investigates the variation of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and its relationship with large-scale climate variability. RI events have exhibited strikingly multidecadal variability. During the warm (cold) phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the annual RI number is generally lower (higher) and the average location of RI occurrence tends to shift southeastward (northwestward). The multidecadal variations of RI are associated with the variations of large-scale ocean and atmosphere variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), relative humidity (RHUM), and vertical wind shear (VWS). It is shown that their variations on multidecadal time scales depend on the evolution of the PDO phase. The easterly trade wind is strengthened during the cold PDO phase at low levels, which tends to make equatorial warm water spread northward into the main RI region rsulting from meridional ocean advection associated with Ekman transport. Simultaneously, an anticyclonic wind anomaly is formed in the subtropical gyre of the WNP. This therefore may deepen the depth of the 26°C isotherm and directly increase TCHP over the main RI region. These thermodynamic effects associated with the cold PDO phase greatly support RI occurrence. The reverse is true during the warm PDO phase. The results also indicate that the VWS variability in the low wind shear zone along the monsoon trough may not be critical for the multidecadal modulation of RI events.

scholarly journals Evolution of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in Two Types of El Niño

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1919-1934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiong Chen ◽  
Jian Ling ◽  
Chongyin Li
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Cp El Niño ◽  
Ep El Niño ◽  
The Western Pacific

Abstract Evolution characteristics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) during the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) types of El Niño have been investigated. MJO activities are strengthened over the western Pacific during the predeveloping and developing phases of EP El Niño, but suppressed during the mature and decaying phases. In contrast, MJO activities do not show a clear relationship with CP El Niño before their occurrence over the western Pacific, but they increase over the central Pacific during the mature and decaying phases of CP El Niño. Lag correlation analyses further confirm that MJO activities over the western Pacific in boreal spring and early summer are closely related to EP El Niño up to 2–11 months later, but not for CP El Niño. EP El Niño tends to weaken the MJO and lead to a much shorter range of its eastward propagation. Anomalous descending motions over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific related to El Niño can suppress convection and moisture flux convergence there and weaken MJO activities over these regions during the mature phase of both types of El Niño. MJO activities over the western Pacific are much weaker in EP El Niño due to the stronger anomalous descending motions. Furthermore, the MJO propagates more continuously and farther eastward during CP El Niño because of robust moisture convergence over the central Pacific, which provides adequate moisture for the development of MJO convection.

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