Understanding the Predictability of East Asian Summer Monsoon from the Reproduction of Land–Sea Thermal Contrast Change in AMIP-Type Simulation

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (22) ◽  
pp. 6009-6026 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianjun Zhou ◽  
Liwei Zou
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Asian Continent ◽  
Thermal Contrast ◽  
The North ◽  
Tropical Western Pacific ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract Previous studies on the predictability of East Asian summer monsoon circulation based on SST-constrained Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations show that this phenomenon is reproduced with lower skill than other monsoon patterns. The authors examine the reason in terms of the predictability of land–sea thermal contrast change. In the observation, a stronger monsoon circulation is dominated by a tropospheric warming over East Asian continent and a cooling over the tropical western Pacific and North Pacific, indicating an enhancement of the summertime “warmer land–colder ocean” mean state. The tropospheric cooling over the tropical western Pacific and North Pacific, and the tropospheric warming over East Asian continent are reproducible in AMIP-type simulations, although there are biases over both the North Pacific and East Asia. The tropospheric temperature responses in the model indicate a reasonable predictability of the meridional land–sea thermal contrast; the zonal land–sea thermal contrast change is also predictable but shows bias over the region north to 25°N in North Pacific. The reproducibility of the meridional thermal contrast is higher than that of the zonal thermal contrast. An examination of the predictability of two commonly used monsoon indices reveals far different skills. The index defined as zonal wind shear between 850 and 200 hPa averaged over East Asia is highly predictable. The skill comes from the predictability of the meridional land–sea thermal contrast. Although the zonal thermal contrast change is mostly predictable except for the biases over the North Pacific, the monsoon index defined as zonal sea level pressure (SLP) difference across the East Asian continent and the North Pacific is unpredictable. The low skill is related to the index definition, which attaches more importance to the land SLP change. The limitation of the index in measuring the land SLP change reduces the model skill. Although regional features of monsoon precipitation changes remain a challenge for current climate models, the predictable land–sea thermal contrast change sheds light on monsoon circulation prediction.

scholarly journals Weakening Relationship between East Asian Summer Monsoon and Asian-Pacific Oscillation after 1990s

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Wei Hua ◽  
Zouxin Lin ◽  
Xin Wang ◽  
Guangzhou Fan
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Thermal Contrast ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Asian Pacific

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), which is an important influencing summer climate of East Asia, is associated with large-scale change of the land-sea thermal contrast. The Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) can modulate the EASM because it not only represents the upper-tropospheric zonal land-sea thermal contrast over Asia and the Pacific region, but it also affects the sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Pacific, which can tune the land-sea thermal contrast for the EASM. This study revealed weakening of the APO-EASM relationship since the 1990s. It was found that the relationship between the APO and the EASM during 1948–1990 (1991–2016) was statistically significant (insignificant). Further study indicated that the APO was concurrent with significant positive SST in the central North Pacific and subtropical central-western Pacific during 1948–1990, which contributed to the shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from its cold to warm phase and led to a weakened EASM. The APO-related SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies were found statistically to be insignificant during 1991–2016, which indicates a weakening of influence of the APO on shift of the PDO, and even a weaker link to the EASM.

scholarly journals Annual Cycle of Rainfall in the Western North Pacific and East Asian Sector

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 2073-2094 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chia Chou ◽  
Li-Fan Huang ◽  
Lishan Tseng ◽  
Jien-Yi Tu ◽  
Pei-Hua Tan
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Tropical Convection ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Monsoon Gyre

Abstract The annual cycle of precipitation over the western North Pacific and East Asian (WNP–EA) sector has five major periods: spring, the first and second wet periods, fall, and winter. In this study, processes that induce precipitation in each period are examined from a large-scale point of view. The wet phase over this sector has two distinct periods, which are dominated by the Asian summer monsoon circulation induced by the land–ocean contrast of net energy into the atmospheric column (Fnet). In the first wet period, the pre-mei-yu/mei-yu rainband is directly associated with a moisture flux convergence caused by the southwesterly Asian summer monsoon flow and the southeasterly trade winds, and indirectly associated with a dynamic feedback induced by this horizontal moisture convergence. The tropical convection, in the meantime, is associated with a rising motion that is induced by positive Fnet. In the second wet period, the WNP summer monsoon gyre dominates the rainfall of this region, which is partially associated with warmer local sea surface temperature (SST) via positive Fnet. The land–sea contrast of Fnet and the atmosphere–ocean interaction also play an important role in establishing the monsoon gyre. The dry phase over the WNP–EA region is the winter period in which precipitation is associated with winter storm activities and large-scale lifting associated with a pressure surge. In the two transition phases, due to a difference in heat capacity, the atmosphere and ocean have distinct impacts on precipitation, albeit similar solar insolations during the two periods. In the spring period, the atmospheric condition is favorable for convection, while the ocean surface is relatively colder, so the horizontal moisture advection associated with the westward extent of the Pacific subtropical high, which is different from a typical winter frontal system, is a major source for the spring rain. In the fall period, however, the atmospheric conditions dominated by the Asian winter monsoon circulation suppress convection, while relatively warmer SST still maintains tropical convection over the southern part of the WNP–EA region. Over the northern part of the WNP–EA region, the fall precipitation is associated with frontal systems, similar to those in winter.

scholarly journals A Lacustrine Biomarker Record From Rebun Island Reveals a Warm Summer Climate in Northern Japan During the Early Middle Holocene Due to a Stronger North Pacific High

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masanobu Yamamoto ◽  
Fangxian Wang ◽  
Tomohisa Irino ◽  
Kenta Suzuki ◽  
Kazuyoshi Yamada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Middle Holocene ◽  
Summer Climate ◽  
The North ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Rebun Island ◽  
The Kuroshio ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Northern Japan

The summer climate of northern Japan since the last glacial period has likely been determined by atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, such as changes in the North Pacific High, the position of the westerlies, the Kuroshio Current, the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC), and the East Asian summer monsoon. However, it is unclear which factor has been most important. In this study, we analyzed leaf wax δ13C and δD and glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) in sediments from Lake Kushu, Rebun Island, northern Japan, and discuss changes in climate over the past 17,000 years. The GDGT-based temperature, the averaged chain length, δ13C and δD of long-chain n-fatty acids indicated that the climate was cold during the Oldest Dryas period ∼16 ka and warm in the early Middle Holocene from ∼9 to 6 ka. This climate change is consistent with the sea surface temperature in the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition, but inconsistent with changes in the TWC in the Sea of Japan. The results imply that the summer climate of northern Japan was controlled mainly by changes in the development of the North Pacific High via changes in the position of the westerly jet and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall, whereas the influence of the TWC was limited over a millennial timescale.

scholarly journals Thermal Contrast between the Middle-Latitude Asian Continent and Adjacent Ocean and Its Connection to the East Asian Summer Precipitation

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (19) ◽  
pp. 4992-5007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huaqiong Cheng ◽  
Tongwen Wu ◽  
Wenjie Dong
Keyword(s):  
Geopotential Height ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Middle Latitude ◽  
Interdecadal Variability ◽  
Asian Continent ◽  
Thermal Contrast ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
High Precipitation ◽  
East Asian Summer Precipitation

Abstract To analyze the middle-to-lower-troposphere atmospheric thermal contrast between the middle latitude over the Asian continent and over its eastern adjacent ocean near Japan, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data of the June–August (JJA) 500-hPa geopotential height over the Asia–Pacific area (10°–80°N, 60°–180°E) during 1958–2000 was done. It shows that the dominating pattern of the thermal contrast may well be represented by a “seesaw” of 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies between a land area (40°–55°N, 75°–90°E) and an oceanic area (35°–42.5°N, 140°– 150°E). An index showing the difference between the two areas is defined as the middle-latitude land–sea thermal contrast index (LSI). The LSI has significant interannual and interdecadal variability. Its interannual variation is mainly attributed to the atmospheric thermal condition over the ocean, which has a remarkably regional unique feature, while the interdecadal variability is greatly attributed to that over the land. The LSI has a close connection to the East Asian summer precipitation. The results show that large (small) LSI is related to high (low) summer precipitation in the middle to lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Korea, Japan, and its eastern adjacent ocean at the same latitude, and low (high) precipitation in the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific, as well as low (high) precipitation in north China and high-latitude northeast Asia. The pattern of correlation between LSI and precipitation resembles the spatial distribution of the principle EOF mode of year-to-year precipitation variations. Furthermore, the variation of LSI is highly correlated to the time series of the first EOF mode of summer precipitation anomalies. This suggests that the middle-latitude land–sea thermal contrast is one of important factors to influence on the summer precipitation variations over the area from the whole East Asia to the western Pacific. The possible physical mechanisms of the land–sea thermal contrast impacting the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation are also investigated.

scholarly journals Assessing Future Changes in the East Asian Summer Monsoon Using CMIP5 Coupled Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (19) ◽  
pp. 7662-7675 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyong-Hwan Seo ◽  
Jung Ok ◽  
Jun-Hyeok Son ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Moisture Convergence ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Moisture Flux Convergence ◽  
The North ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract Future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are estimated from historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) experiments of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The historical runs show that, like the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models produce slightly smaller precipitation. A moisture budget analysis illustrates that this precipitation deficit is due to an underestimation in evaporation and ensuing moisture flux convergence. Of the two components of the moisture flux convergence (i.e., moisture convergence and horizontal moist advection), moisture convergence associated with mass convergence is underestimated to a greater degree. Precipitation is anticipated to increase by 10%–15% toward the end of the twenty-first century over the major monsoonal front region. A statistically significant increase is predicted to occur mostly over the Baiu region and to the north and northeast of the Korean Peninsula. This increase is attributed to an increase in evaporation and moist flux convergence (with enhanced moisture convergence contributing the most) induced by the northwestward strengthening of the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH), a characteristic feature of the future EASM that occurred in CMIP5 simulations. Along the northern and northwestern flank of the strengthened NPSH, intensified southerly or southwesterly winds lead to the increase in moist convergence, enhancing precipitation over these areas. However, future precipitation over the East China Sea is projected to decrease. In the EASM domain, a local mechanism prevails, with increased moisture and moisture convergence leading to a greater increase in moist static energy in the lower troposphere than in the upper troposphere, reducing tropospheric stability.

scholarly journals Source-receptor relationships between East Asian sulfur dioxide emissions and Northern Hemisphere sulfate concentrations

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 5537-5561 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Liu ◽  
D. L. Mauzerall ◽  
L. W. Horowitz
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Source Region ◽  
The United States ◽  
So2 Emissions ◽  
Aerosol Model ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Sulfur Emissions

Abstract. We analyze the effect of varying East Asian (EA) sulfur emissions on sulfate concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere, using a global coupled oxidant-aerosol model (MOZART-2). We conduct a base and five sensitivity simulations, in which sulfur emissions from each continent are tagged, to establish the source-receptor (S-R) relationship between EA sulfur emissions and sulfate concentrations over source and downwind regions. We find that from west to east across the North Pacific, EA sulfate contributes approximately 80%–20% of sulfate at the surface, but at least 50% at 500 hPa. In addition, EA SO2 emissions account for approximately 30%–50% and 10%–20% of North American background sulfate over the western and eastern US, respectively. The contribution of EA sulfate to the western US at the surface is highest in MAM and JJA, but is lowest in DJF. Reducing EA SO2 emissions will significantly decrease the spatial extent of the EA sulfate influence over the North Pacific both at the surface and at 500 mb in all seasons, but the extent of influence is insensitive to emission increases, particularly in DJF and JJA. We find that EA sulfate concentrations over most downwind regions respond nearly linearly to changes in EA SO2 emissions, but sulfate concentrations over the EA source region increase more slowly than SO2 emissions, particularly at the surface and in winter, due to limited availability of oxidants (mostly H2O2). We find that similar estimates of the S-R relationship for trans-Pacific transport of EA sulfate would be obtained using either sensitivity or tagging techniques. Our findings suggest that future changes in EA sulfur emissions may cause little change in the sulfate induced health impact over downwind continents but SO2 emission reductions may significantly reduce the sulfate related climate cooling over the North Pacific and the United States.

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