scholarly journals Quantifying Differences in Circulation Patterns Based on Probabilistic Models: IPCC AR4 Multimodel Comparison for the North Atlantic*

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (24) ◽  
pp. 6573-6589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henning W. Rust ◽  
Mathieu Vrac ◽  
Matthieu Lengaigne ◽  
Benjamin Sultan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Gaussian Mixture ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Shape Information ◽  
Size And Shape ◽  
The North ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The comparison of circulation patterns (CPs) obtained from reanalysis data to those from general circulation model (GCM) simulations is a frequent task for model validation, downscaling of GCM simulations, or other climate change–related studies. Here, the authors suggest a set of measures to quantify the differences between CPs. A combination of clustering using Gaussian mixture models with a set of related difference measures allows for taking cluster size and shape information into account and thus provides more information than the Euclidean distances between cluster centroids. The characteristics of the various distance measures are illustrated with a simple simulated example. Subsequently, a five-component Gaussian mixture to define circulation patterns for the North Atlantic region from reanalysis data and GCM simulations is used. CPs are obtained independently for the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), as well as for twentieth-century simulations from 14 GCMs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) database. After discussing the difference of CPs based on spherical and nonspherical clusters for the reanalysis datasets, the authors give a detailed evaluation of the cluster configuration for two GCMs relative to NCEP–NCAR. Finally, as an illustration, the capability of reproducing the NCEP–NCAR probability density function (pdf) defining the Greenland anticyclone CP is evaluated for all 14 GCMs, considering that the size and shape of the underlying pdfs complement the commonly used Euclidean distance of CPs’ mean values.

Simulation of Late-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation over Europe Due to Anthropogenic Causes

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 4630-4635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Terray ◽  
Marie-Estelle Demory ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
Gaelle de Coetlogon ◽  
Eric Maisonnave
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Evidence is presented, based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios performed with a global general circulation model of the atmosphere with high horizontal resolution over Europe, to suggest that the end-of-century anthropogenic climate change over the North Atlantic–European region strongly projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during wintertime. It is reflected in a doubling of the residence frequency of the climate system in the associated circulation regime, in agreement with the nonlinear climate perspective. The strong increase in the amplitude of the response, compared to coarse-resolution coupled model studies, suggests that improved model representation of regional climate is needed to achieve more reliable projections of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

scholarly journals Transport and storage of anthropogenic C in the North Atlantic Subpolar Ocean

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (14) ◽  
pp. 4661-4682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virginie Racapé ◽  
Patricia Zunino ◽  
Herlé Mercier ◽  
Pascale Lherminier ◽  
Laurent Bopp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Intermediate Water ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The North ◽  
Storage Rate ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
And Storage

Abstract. The North Atlantic Ocean is a major sink region for atmospheric CO2 and contributes to the storage of anthropogenic carbon (Cant). While there is general agreement that the intensity of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) modulates uptake, transport and storage of Cant in the North Atlantic Subpolar Ocean, processes controlling their recent variability and evolution over the 21st century remain uncertain. This study investigates the relationship between transport, air–sea flux and storage rate of Cant in the North Atlantic Subpolar Ocean over the past 53 years. Its relies on the combined analysis of a multiannual in situ data set and outputs from a global biogeochemical ocean general circulation model (NEMO–PISCES) at 1∕2∘ spatial resolution forced by an atmospheric reanalysis. Despite an underestimation of Cant transport and an overestimation of anthropogenic air–sea CO2 flux in the model, the interannual variability of the regional Cant storage rate and its driving processes were well simulated by the model. Analysis of the multi-decadal simulation revealed that the MOC intensity variability was the major driver of the Cant transport variability at 25 and 36∘ N, but not at OVIDE. At the subpolar OVIDE section, the interannual variability of Cant transport was controlled by the accumulation of Cant in the MOC upper limb. At multi-decadal timescales, long-term changes in the North Atlantic storage rate of Cant were driven by the increase in air–sea fluxes of anthropogenic CO2. North Atlantic Central Water played a key role for storing Cant in the upper layer of the subtropical region and for supplying Cant to Intermediate Water and North Atlantic Deep Water. The transfer of Cant from surface to deep waters occurred mainly north of the OVIDE section. Most of the Cant transferred to the deep ocean was stored in the subpolar region, while the remainder was exported to the subtropical gyre within the lower MOC.

scholarly journals The concurrence of Atmospheric Rivers and explosive cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Eiras-Barca ◽  
Alexandre M. Ramos ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo ◽  
Margarida L. R. Liberato ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Water Vapour Flux ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
The North ◽  
Explosive Cyclones ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Characteristic Features ◽  
Western Side

Abstract. The explosive cyclogenesis of extra-tropical cyclones and the occurrence of atmospheric rivers are characteristic features of baroclinic atmospheres, and are both closely related to extreme hydrometeorological events in the mid-latitudes, particularly on coastal areas on the western side of the continents. The potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening has been previously analysed for selected case studies, but a general assessment from the climatological perspective is still missing. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific Basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM). Atmospheric rivers are identified for almost 80 % of explosive deepening cyclones. For non-explosive cyclones, atmospheric rivers are found only in roughly 40 % of the cases. The analysis of the time evolution of the high values of water vapour flux associated with the atmospheric river during the cyclone development phase leads us to hypothesize that the identified relationship is the fingerprint of a mechanism that raises the odds of an explosive cyclogenesis occurrence and not merely a statistical relationship. This insight can be helpful for the predictability of high impact weather associated with explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers.

scholarly journals Marine productivity response to Heinrich events: a model-data comparison

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1581-1598 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Mariotti ◽  
L. Bopp ◽  
A. Tagliabue ◽  
M. Kageyama ◽  
D. Swingedouw
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Biogeochemical Model ◽  
Heinrich Events ◽  
The North ◽  
Heinrich Event ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Marine Productivity

Abstract. Marine sediments records suggest large changes in marine productivity during glacial periods, with abrupt variations especially during the Heinrich events. Here, we study the response of marine biogeochemistry to such an event by using a biogeochemical model of the global ocean (PISCES) coupled to an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (IPSL-CM4). We conduct a 400-yr-long transient simulation under glacial climate conditions with a freshwater forcing of 0.1 Sv applied to the North Atlantic to mimic a Heinrich event, alongside a glacial control simulation. To evaluate our numerical results, we have compiled the available marine productivity records covering Heinrich events. We find that simulated primary productivity and organic carbon export decrease globally (by 16% for both) during a Heinrich event, albeit with large regional variations. In our experiments, the North Atlantic displays a significant decrease, whereas the Southern Ocean shows an increase, in agreement with paleo-productivity reconstructions. In the Equatorial Pacific, the model simulates an increase in organic matter export production but decreased biogenic silica export. This antagonistic behaviour results from changes in relative uptake of carbon and silicic acid by diatoms. Reasonable agreement between model and data for the large-scale response to Heinrich events gives confidence in models used to predict future centennial changes in marine production. In addition, our model allows us to investigate the mechanisms behind the observed changes in the response to Heinrich events.

scholarly journals Modeling dust emission response to MIS 3 millennial climate variations from the perspective of East European loess deposits

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sima ◽  
M. Kageyama ◽  
D.-D. Rousseau ◽  
G. Ramstein ◽  
Y. Balkanski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Reference Site ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
Loess Deposits ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. European loess sequences of the last glacial period (~ 100–15 kyr BP) show periods of strong dust accumulation alternating with episodes of reduced sedimentation, favoring soil development. In the western part of the loess belt centered around 50° N, these variations appear to have been caused by the North Atlantic rapid climate changes: the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (H) events. It has been recently suggested that the North-Atlantic climate signal can be detected further east, in loess deposits from Stayky (50° 05.65' N, 30° 53.92' E), Ukraine. Here we use climate and dust emission modeling to investigate this data interpretation. We focus on the areas north and northeast of the Carpathians, where loess deposits can be found, and the corresponding main dust sources must have been located as well. The simulations, performed with the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model and the ORCHIDEE land-surface model, represent a Greenland stadial, a DO interstadial and an H event respectively. Placed in Marine Isotope Stage 3 (~ 60–25 kyr BP) conditions, they only differ by the surface conditions imposed in the North Atlantic between 30° and 63° N. The main source for the loess deposits in the studied area is identified as a dust deflation band, with two very active spots located west–northwest from our reference site. Emissions only occur between February and June. Differences from one deflation spot to another, and from one climate state to another, are explained by analyzing the relevant meteorological and surface variables. Over most of the source region, the annual emission fluxes in the "interstadial" experiment are 30 to 50% lower than the "stadial" values; they would only be about 20% lower if the inhibition of dust uplift by the vegetation were not taken into account. Assuming that lower emissions result in reduced dust deposition leads us to the conclusion that the loess-paleosol stratigraphic succession in the Stayky area reflects indeed North-Atlantic millennial variations. In the main deflation areas of Western Europe, the vegetation effect alone determined most of the ~ 50% stadial-interstadial flux differences. Even if its impact in Eastern Europe is less pronounced, this effect remains a key factor in modulating aeolian emissions at millennial timescale. Conditions favorable to initiating particularly strong dust storms within a few hundred kilometers upwind from our reference site, simulated in the month of April of the "H event" experiment, support the identification of H events as layers of particularly coarse sedimentation in some very detailed profiles.

scholarly journals Contributions of Atmospheric Stochastic Forcing and Intrinsic Ocean Modes to North Atlantic Ocean Interdecadal Variability

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 2351-2370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Arzel ◽  
Thierry Huck
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Dimensionless Number ◽  
Stochastic Forcing ◽  
The North ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The North Atlantic

AbstractAtmospheric stochastic forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and intrinsic ocean modes associated with the large-scale baroclinic instability of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) are recognized as two strong paradigms for the existence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The degree to which each of these factors contribute to the low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic is the central question in this paper. This issue is addressed here using an ocean general circulation model run under a wide range of background conditions extending from a supercritical regime where the oceanic variability spontaneously develops in the absence of any atmospheric noise forcing to a damped regime where the variability requires some noise to appear. The answer to the question is captured by a single dimensionless number Γ measuring the ratio between the oceanic and atmospheric contributions, as inferred from the buoyancy variance budget of the western subpolar region. Using this diagnostic, about two-thirds of the sea surface temperature (SST) variance in the damped regime is shown to originate from atmospheric stochastic forcing whereas heat content is dominated by internal ocean dynamics. Stochastic wind stress forcing is shown to substantially increase the role played by damped ocean modes in the variability. The thermal structure of the variability is shown to differ fundamentally between the supercritical and damped regimes, with abrupt modifications around the transition between the two regimes. Ocean circulation changes are further shown to be unimportant for setting the pattern of SST variability in the damped regime but are fundamental for a preferred time scale to emerge.

scholarly journals North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation

Ocean Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 389-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Medhaug ◽  
T. Furevik
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract. Output from a total of 24 state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models is analyzed. The models were integrated with observed forcing for the period 1850–2000 as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. All models show enhanced variability at multi-decadal time scales in the North Atlantic sector similar to the observations, but with a large intermodel spread in amplitudes and frequencies for both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The models, in general, are able to reproduce the observed geographical patterns of warm and cold episodes, but not the phasing such as the early warming (1930s–1950s) and the following colder period (1960s–1980s). This indicates that the observed 20th century extreme in temperatures are due to primarily a fortuitous phasing of intrinsic climate variability and not dominated by external forcing. Most models show a realistic structure in the overturning circulation, where more than half of the available models have a mean overturning transport within the observed estimated range of 13–24 Sverdrup. Associated with a stronger than normal AMOC, the surface temperature is increased and the sea ice extent slightly reduced in the North Atlantic. Individual models show potential for decadal prediction based on the relationship between the AMO and AMOC, but the models strongly disagree both in phasing and strength of the covariability. This makes it difficult to identify common mechanisms and to assess the applicability for predictions.

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